macroeconomic situation in poland from the point of view ... · nauki przyrodnicze, matematyka i...
TRANSCRIPT
Macroeconomic situation in Poland from the
point of view of the automotive industry
November 2017
Andrzej Halesiak ([email protected])
This report is for information purpose only. The opinions expressed in the report reflect independent, current judgment of Bank Pekao S.A. The information used in
the report are based on sources we believed to be reliable, however are not guaranteed to be accurate and complete. All estimates and opinions included herein
represent our judgment as of the date of the issue. Bank Pekao SA does not take any responsibility for decisions taken on the basis of this report. No part of the
report may be redistributed or reproduced in any manner or form without the prior written consent of Bank Pekao SA
Public document
2
Main macroeconomic trends in
Poland – focus on automotive
industry
Automotive industry in Poland – how
to make the success lasting under
changing environment
3 Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research.
GDP growth
In 2017 economic expansion accelerated. Solid growth should continue
also in the coming quarters
Quarterly (%, y/y) Yearly (%, y/y)
3,03,2
2,6 2,7
4,1 4,0
4,9
4,53,8
2,9
4,3
3,8
3,3
2,3
1,9
2,42,2
2,0
2015 2016 2017P 2018P 2019P
Poland EU28
4 Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research.
Contributions to GDP growth
Growth in Poland is driven by the private consumption…
1,61,4
3,3
3,8
2,9
4,33,8
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017P 2018P
Private consumption Investments Change in inventories
Net export Public consumption GDP (y/y, %)
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research
Unemployment and wages
….which is growing on the back of favourable labour market
conditions…
Unemployment rate, % Average wage in enterprise sector (y/y, %)
2015 =
3,5%
2016 =
4.1%
2017P =
5.5%
2018P=
6.8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
6 * based on households declarations (positive reading means that optimists prevail over pessimists)
** estimate for the whole year based on 10 months
Source: StatOffice, OICA
Consumers’ sentiment and sales of new cars
….translating into favourable consumers’ sentiment and greater
purchases of goods and services
Consumers’ confidence index* Sales of new cars
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17 3
6
9
12
15
18
21
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Poland (in th., l.a.)
EU28 + EFTA (in mn, r.a.)
7 * Eurostat definition (15-64 years old)
Source: Eurostat.
Demographic trends and their impact on labour market
Since current situation on the labour market is primarily shaped by
structural factors (demography), tensions may last even if economic
expansion slows down
Births in Poland, th. Working-age population*, mn
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2010 2017P 2025P
-1,1 mn
-1,9 mn
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
8
For enterprises situation on the labour market is a challenge,
especially those operating in labour intensive sectors
4669
4422
7813
2440
4900
4491
3221
4521
3035
6048
4350
3224
3934
4387
4668
3966
5895
6341
4520
3496
5010
Average monthly gross
wage, PLN**
2710
* Direct labour costs represent the cost of labour directly in a given branch. Indirect labour costs represent the input of other branches
(suppliers, providers of services etc.)
** As of 2016
Source: Own analysis based on StatOffice
Labour costs as % of sales value*
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Wearing apparel
Other transport equipment
Leather and related products
Machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Furniture
Printing and recording services
Textiles
Pharmaceutical products
Other non-metalic mineral products
Wood and products of wood
Fabricated metal products
Electrical equipment
Basic metals
Rubber and plastic products
Beverages
Tobacco products
Paper and paper products
Food products
Chemicals and chemical products
Motor vehicles
Computer, electronic and optical…
Coke, refined petroleum products
Direct Indirect
9
Main macroeconomic trends in
Poland – focus on automotive
industry
Automotive industry in Poland –
how to make the success lasting
under changing environment
10
Automotive is Poland’s „success story” – in the last 10 years value of
production sold doubled…
Source: StatOffice
37,6 41,0 44,1 46,6 43,2 46,5 53,5
46,7 46,2 46,3 51,0 57,2
23,1 26,4
32,0 30,3 37,6 43,1
48,5 47,1 51,5 56,0
62,9
73,1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Produkcja pojazdów* i silników Produkcja części i akcesoriów
60,8 67,4
76,1 76,9 80,8
89,6
102,0
93,8 97,6
102,2
113,9
130,3
x 3.2
x 2.1
x 1.5
Value of production sold in automotive, PLN bn
Vehicles and engines Parts and accessories
11
Source: StatOffice, Eurostat
Value of production sold (PLN bn, 2016) Net export (EUR bn, 2016)
…and today automotive is among the top industry branches
Automotive at the background of other industry branches
12
Labor costs in manufacturing, EUR/h Global shipments of
industrial robots, th
Labour costs and robotization
0 10 20 30 40 50
BulgariaRomaniaLithuania
LatviaHungary
PolandCroatia
Czech Rep.Estonia
SlovakiaPortugalGreece
SloveniaSpain
UKEU28
ItalyIrelandAustria
NetherlandsFinlandFrance
GermanySweden
DenmarkBelgium
x 3
Source: Eurostat, IFR
Due to huge wage gap for many years ahead Poland will remain an attractive
manufacturing location, but new situation on the labour market calls for
putting more attention to productivity. Automation might be one of the
potential levers to be used
13
Structure of students by the filed of study (%), 2015 vs. 2008
Coping with productivity challenge requires higher skills – investments
into human capital should be high on the country and corporate agenda
2008-2015 change (p.p.)
-4
+6
-4
+3
-1
-4
+2
0
0
0
27%
14%
15%
6%
10%
7%
12%
5%
4%
2%
23%
20%
11%
9%
9%
9%
8%
5%
4%
2%
Biznes, administracja i prawo
Technika, przemysł, budownictwo
Nauki społeczne, dziennikarstwo i informacja
Zdrowie i opieka społeczna
Nauki humanistyczne i sztuka
Usługi
Kształcenie
Technologie teleinformacyjne
Nauki przyrodnicze, matematyka i statystyka
Rolnictwo
2008 2015
Business, administration and law
Natural sciences, mathematics and statistics
Information and communication
Technology, industry, construction
Agriculture
Education
Services
Arts and humanities
Health and welfare
Social sciences, journalism and information
Source: StatOffice
Positive changes
in the structure of
students driven to
some extent by the
public policy
14
Push towards higher productivity based on innovation requires radical
changes in university-business cooperation
Country scores* Poland score gap to Europe, by
area of cooperation, in points
University-business co-operation
0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6
Collaboration in R&D
Commercialization of R&Dresults
Mobility of students
Curriculum developmentand delivery
Entrepreneurship
Lifelong learning
Governance
Mobility of academics
* Score ranges from 1 (no cooperation ) to 10 (very high level of co-operation)
Source: „Understanding European University Business Cooperation” (research conducted in 2011)
15
22242628303234363840424446485052545658606264666870
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Position of Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep. and Slovakia in „Doing Business in*” global ranking
* Position in a given year was also influenced by the methodological changes
Source: World Bank
Further reduction in „transactional costs” may also help in maintaining
automotive industry competitiveness
Poland
Czech Rep.
Slovakia
Hungary
16
The most important thing is, that each company conducts its own
diagnosis of what it needs to be more productive and undertakes
necessary initiatives
Possible productivity levers
How to make it Productivity lever
Mechanization and
automation
Organizational and
process
improvements
• IT expenditures
• Human capital investments
New value added
chain links
• R&D expenditures
• Human capital investments,
• Licences and patents purchases
• Fixed investments
• IT investments
Source: own analysis
Economies of scale
(consolidation, new
markets)
• Capital expenditures (M&As)
• Foreig expansion
Increasing „pricing
power”
• Marketing investments (brand
building)
17
Summing up
Current macroeconomic environment is favourable
to the automotive industry (strong demand), but sooner
or later cyclical situation will change…
…then all structural challenges will become more
pronounced, especially those related to the changes
on the labour market (which are permanent in their
nature).
Mid-term success of a particular company will depend
on the productivity-enhancing initiatives it
undertakes right now. It is time to act!
18
Bank Pekao business contacts
Ewa Czarnecka
Acting Head of International Clients Department
Tel: +48 22 524 57 98
Mob: +48 601 150 549
Beata Frankiewicz-Boniecka
Director in the Large Corporate Department
Tel: + 48 22 524 62 36
Mob: + 48 691 203 171