mainstreet - bc riding polls

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 716 Burnaby North-Seymour residents, 661 Fleetwood-Port Kells residents, and 673 West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country residents by Smart IVR on

October 9-10, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Burnaby North Seymour margin of error: +/- 3.65%, Fleetwood Port Kells margin of error: +/- 3.8%, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country margin of error: +/- 3.76%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by

age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

October 15, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - With less than a week to go, a new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in British Columbia finds three races too close to call.

FLEETWOOD-PORT KELLSIn Fleetwood-Port Kells the Liberals and Conservatives are tied among decided and leaning voters, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. The Conservatives have a slight advantage in that they are 2% ahead among all voters, but considering the margin of error even that would be a statistical tie. This one looks like its coming down to the wire.

BURNABY NORTH-SEYMOURRight now the Conservatives are in the drivers seat in Burnaby North-Seymour, continued Maggi. There is a very even vote split with the Liberals and NDP tied for second place. Theres not much time left for one of them to break out in order to challenge for first. These are the kinds of vote splits that Conservatives need around the country if they are going to be able to hold on to their incumbents.

WEST VANCOUVER-SUNSHINE COAST-SEA TO SKY COUNTRYThe Liberals have a 5 point lead in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Seat to Sky Country. This is outside the margin of error and we would expect given regional trends that the Liberals will do well here on election night, he finished.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last OctobersToronto mayoral election.

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Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

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NINA GREWAL (CPC)GARRY BEGG (NDP)KEN HARDIE (LPC)RICHARD HOSEIN (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain32%21%29%5%12%

Likely19%8%

39%8%25%

Unlikely20%21%5%10%44%

Might18%28%20%0%34%

NINA GREWAL (CPC)GARRY BEGG (NDP)KEN HARDIE (LPC)RICHARD HOSEIN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3433%22%27%8%11%107

35-4928%16%37%6%13%144

50-6428%23%28%4%17%198

65+36%23%23%4%15%212

Female32%23%29%4%12%333

Male29%19%29%7%16%328

FLEETWOOD - PORT KELLS

Grewal Begg Hardie Hosein Undecided

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

All Voters Decided and Leaning

31%

21%

29%

5% 14%

35%

24%

35%

6%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDONT KNOW

CPC86%6%8%

NDP60%30%10%

GPC40%41%19%

LPC71%26%8%

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

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FLEETWOOD - PORT KELLS

Grewal Begg Hardie Hosein Undecided

10%

7%

27%

2%

54%

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MIKE LITTLE (CPC)CAROL BAIRD (NDP)TERRY BEECH (LPC)LYNNE QUARMBY (GPC)UNDECIDED

MIKE LITTLE (CPC)CAROL BAIRD (NDP)TERRY BEECH (LPC)LYNNE QUARMBY (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

BURNABY NORTH - SEYMOUR

Little Baird Beech Quarmby Undecided


Certain32%24%24%8%12%

Likely24%13%29%8%

26%

Unlikely44%20%13%10%14%

Might20%17%23%10%30%

18-3435%13%32%4%15%125

35-4929%26%22%9%15%188

50-6432%27%23%11%7%176

65+36%27%19%7%12%227

Female26%26%27%11%11%397

Male40%19%22%5%14%319


33%

23%

24%

8% 12%

38%

26%

27%

9%



CPC85%9%7%

NDP51%23%26%

GPC51%31%18%

LPC68%18%14%


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BURNABY NORTH - SEYMOUR

Little Baird Beech Quarmby Undecided

19%

13%

5%

3%

59%

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JOHN WESTON (CPC)LARRY KOOPMAN (NDP)PAMELA GOLDSMITH-JONES (LPC)KEN MELAMED (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain30%14%33%12%11%

Likely10%14%64%5%6%

Unlikely22%8%

38%20%12%

Might3%3%7%4%

84%

JOHN WESTON (CPC)LARRY KOOPMAN (NDP)PAMELA GOLDSMITH-JONES (LPC)KEN MELAMED (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3431%12%25%12%19%116

35-4922%23%29%17%9%163

50-6427%10%47%7%9%146

65+37%10%33%10%10%248

Female22%17%34%13%13%355

Male36%11%33%9%11%318

WEST VANCOUVER - SUNSHINE COAST - SEA TO SKY COUNTRY

Weston Koopman Goldsmith-Jones Melamed Undecided



29%

14%

34%

12%

12%

32%

15%

37%

16%



CPC80%10%10%

NDP73%17%10%

GPC53%35%12%

LPC83%10%7%


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WEST VANCOUVER - SUNSHINE COAST - SEA TO SKY COUNTRY

Weston Koopman Goldsmith - Jones Melamed Undecided

11%

3%

7%

26%

54%

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote

Might vote Unlikely to vote


Nina Grewal of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Garry Begg of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Ken Hardie of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Richard Hosein of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Dont know

And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]

Nina Grewal of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Garry Begg of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Ken Hardie of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Richard Hosein of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

FLEETWOODPORT KELLS SCRIPT

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Mike Little of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCarol Baird Ellan of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Terry Beech of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauLynne Quarmby of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided



Dont know


Mike Little of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCarol Baird Ellan of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Terry Beech of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauLynne Quarmby of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

BURNABY NORTHSEYMOUR SCRIPT

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John Weston of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperLarry Koopman of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Pamela Goldsmith-Jones of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKen Melamed of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided



Dont know


John Weston of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperLarry Koopman of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Pamela Goldsmith-Jones of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKen Melamed of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

WEST VANCOUVERSUNSHINE COASTSEA TO SKY COUNTRY SCRIPT

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

mainstreet - bc riding polls

Documents

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