majority world report 2016 - web summit lisbon
TRANSCRIPT
Majority World Report 2016Post-Brexit & Trump
@cape @localglobevc
We’ve never been more networked
But these same networks often only amplify our differences
Driving political nationalism that sells independence based on division
We have real visibility on amazing innovations in energy & transportation
We are experiencing significant breakthroughs in machine learning and artificial intelligence
We are ushering in a new age of human and machines
But the majority world is still earning less than before, while needing to spend more to stand still
Meanwhile the 1% minority has only become richer
People feel strongly about income inequality
Technology companies have changed the face of global capitalism in the last 15 years
Extraordinary value has been created at an extraordinary pace
Many of these emerging giants are now also being grown outside of Silicon Valley
Source: https://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/the-us-breeds-the-most-unicorns-but-the-rest-of-the-world-is-catching-up/
The Internet is now a fundamental part of Global GDP
$40TN of value is still locked up within the Fortune 2000
Source: Fortune 2000 (2015) & Gartner Estimated IT spend %
$30TN of which will be reallocated in next 10 years
Media Entertainment Retail
$3TN already disrupted by current tech wave
Transport Property Food
Now tech is advancing into more and more sectors
Energy
Fortune 2000 invests $2TN a year on tech - to what end?
Source: Fortune 2000 (2015) & Gartner Estimated IT spend %
Which part of this $40TN market will be able to fully embrace technology to innovate and grow?
Fortune 500 disruption matters economically as there’s increasingly less of a public sector safety net
Changes in UK Parliamentary Spend (www.parliament.uk)
We will feel even more political impact as millennial unemployment remains high in many major EU economies
Source: Statista, https://www.statista.com/chart/3644/youth-unemployment-still-unrelenting-in-europe/
Lack of economic opportunities and austerity causing protests and unrest
So while luxuries may feel closer to hand, the jobs and housing which stimulate well-being don’t
This fear is most acute for millennials and parents
Unicorn FTEs Zebras
160,000+ drivers
5,000+ Roos
640,000+ hosts
6,700
2,400
800
Meanwhile a new breed of tech businesses are starting to flip the idea of income and employment on its head
46,000 8,500,000+ sellers
There will be many other new labour marketplace entrants
Source: http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/the-gig-economy-revolutionising-the-world-of-work-or-the-latest-storm-in-a-teacup/
Amplifying an already established trend of self-employment and freelancing marketplaces
There are now over 120m Zebras on Facebook “interested in entrepreneurship”
● Independence● Control● Flexibility
These Zebras are using new realities of self-employment to build an income and their own businesses
Entrepreneurs are already over 5% of world’s population
This isn’t a Silicon Valley thing, it’s a global phenomenon
How do you create an industrial strategy for the many not just for the few?
It’s not just about jobs - the UK is in a relatively good place for unemployment
It’s not just about immigration - nearly 9m migrants already part of the UK labour market
In fact, the UK is only G8 economy with an established entrepreneur’s visa program
It’s partly about how governments adapt to a backdrop of profound change and widespread new technology realities?* (list from 2011)
1. Global Internet, Local Services
2. Broadband Everywhere
3. Mobile Devices
4. Cloud Computing
5. E-Commerce
6. Social Graph
7. Consumerization of IT
8. Incredibly low cost of Start Ups
Tech realities which by 2016 have only accelerated and further evolved even as they repeat themselves...
1. Marketplaces & SaaS (again!)2. Messaging & Bots (again!)3. AI (again!)4. Security & Privacy (again!)5. Sharing & On-demand Economy6. Digital Transformation7. Zebras & NOMAD stack8. Automation - Drones, Cars & Robots9. Blockchain & Microservices
The FTSE 100 have a market capitalization in excess of $2.7 Trillion, employ over 5,580,000 people and spend well over $60bn a year on IT
Source: Public company data, Gartner % IT Spend by Industry (2012) 40
FTSE 100 could see as much as $2TN of value displacement - with a real impact on employment
Population: 240,595
Source: Camden Profile (2015), London Borough Profiles 2016, Camden Equality Taskforce Evidence Base(*) Poverty defined as 60% of national median income – currently equivalent to about £16,500.
Local economies will have to innovate or suffer as well
London’s 3rd largest economy (1.6% of UK GDP - larger than Estonia)
Home to 24,400 businesses including:
But 15-20% households still under poverty line*
So now’s the time to choose something important and double down on Maslow’s web
Communications
Fashion
Discretionary Non-Discretionary
Media
Entertainment
Shopping
Travel
Energy
Housing
Education
Food
Finance
Health
Transport
Security
1993-2003 2004-2012 2012+
But entrepreneurs aren’t afraid of the dark, so pick a big problem to solve
We are all living with new uncertainties
@cape♯majorityworld