Make the difference!

Curitiba, 08 October 2014 Gard Titlestad, Secretary General

International Council For Open and Distance Education

Global Trends in Open, Distance and e-Learning

Andreas Schleicher, OECD, Wellington, 28 March 2014

Education:

Power to transform

EducationAverage years of education

The world Africa south of SaharaYears of education West-Europe

This is ourChallenge

Source: Aftenposten/OECD. How Was Life? Shows long-term progress in key areas of well-being

Not possible without open and distance eduction.

http://stemarts.com/lanl/explore-the-worldhttp://www.millennium-project.org/index.html

The BIG picture

• The growth in higher education is massive

20442030

320

4002007 - 2030

Mill. students

EU/OECD projections the need for HEby 2030: 410 mill.

This is ourChallenge

Not possible without open and distance eduction.

The future hot spots

- Asia- Africa

Credit: A. Raftery / UWWorld population stabilization unlikely this century. Science, 18 September 2014

But also Latin America and the Caribbean

Not only volume• The changes in higher education is dramatic

Opening up the road to knowledge

Opening up?

Openknowledge

Societal needs

Technology

Students needs and

expectations

OERCost

Trends, within

the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation

HE needs – 1 U a week

Demographics

Globalisation

Enabling economic growth

Access

Open Access

eInfrastructureseScience

Automation

Robots Sensors

2020 – 80% connectedInternet of things Open Research

Open Data

Open Innovation

US quadruppling

Southern Europe….

Developing economies

ICT Habitus

Flexibility

Employability

Lifelong

Disruptive Innovations

Openknowledge

Disruptions?

Illustration: Adam Simpson

In 50 years there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them. http://www.wired.com/2012/03/ff_aiclass/3/

President IBM

• ”LORD knows there’s a lot of bad news in the world today to get you down, but there is one big thing happening that leaves me incredibly hopeful about the future, and that is the budding revolution in global online higher education. Nothing has more potential to lift more people out of poverty — by providing them an affordable education to get a job or improve in the job they have. Nothing has more potential to unlock a billion more brains to solve the world’s biggest problems.”

Thomas Friedman, columnist and author

By Jonah Newman and Soo Oh, June 13, 2014 (Harvard and MIT data)http://chronicle.com/article/8-Things-You-Should-Know-About/146901/

8 Things You Should Know About MOOCs

• 1. The overwhelming majority of MOOC students are male• 2. MOOCs attract students who already have college degrees• 3. The median age of MOOC participants is 24• 4. One-third of MOOC participants are from North America• 5. Nearly half of registrants never engage with any of the

content• 6. Europeans view the most course content• 7. Students with a doctorate viewed more course material• 8. Serial students are the most engaged

Mind to MOOCsOverview, reflections and brainstorming in whitening water

Think tank 20 October 2013, Open Universitty of China, Beijing, China

To be reported to the ICDE Standing Conference of Presidents meeting and Policy Forum

Excerpts from ICDE Mind to MOOCs reportA few of the issues and recommendations Equity. • Consider this initiative as an opportunity to rethink our role as universities and take

up MOOCs. . • Integrate open MOOCs in our respective institutions• National, regional and transnational cooperation is a great opportunity in developing

MOOC and MOOC-alike concepts. Diversity. • Undertake contextualized strategies when implementing MOOCs • Be aware of cultural and language aspects → anglo-centric core, colonialism • OER and OCW as the basis for MOOC will ease contextual, cultural and language

adaptationInnovation and Quality. • Improve and innovate on pedagogical aspects: methodologies, content formats,

assessment. • Provide learning analytics as a tool for improving the courses. Connect the learning

process and research for new knowledge and improvements.• Promote research about MOOCs. • Keep moving towards quality. Beyond quantity of MOOCs and users, the focus on

quality is essential for sustainability.

The Open University Catalunia

Innovate from within, put faculty in the lead

2014 2011

The Innovative University: What College Presidents Think About Change in American Higher Education, Chronicle

Trends

The BIG Picture

• Open, Online and Distance Education is steadily increasing all over the world

IndiaSweden

Russia

South America

The US

AfricaAustralia

China

The BIG picture

• Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning are converging => Blended

BlendedODLCampus

• And as a result – an even more diverse higher education landscape……

From Elite to Universal Participation

Elite0-15%

Mass16-50%

Universal Over 50%

Functions of higher education

Shaping mind and character of ruling class; preparation for elite roles

Transmission of skills; preparation for broader range of technical elite roles

Adaptation of "whole population" to rapid social and technological change

Curriculum and forms of instruction

Highly structured in terms of academic conceptions of knowledge

Modular, flexible and semi-structured sequence of courses

Boundaries and sequences break down; distinctions between learning and life break down

Institutional characteristics

Homogeneous with high and common standards; small residential communities; clear and impermeable boundaries

Comprehensive with more diverse standards; "cities of intellect" – mixed residential & commuting; boundaries fuzzy and permeable.

Great diversity with no common model; aggregates of people enrolled but...many rarely on campus; boundaries weak or non-existent.

Research and knowledge transfer

Pursuit of understanding of fundamental principles focused on "pure disciplines" and arising from curiosity, with no (direct or immediate) commercial benefits.

Pursuit of understanding of principles in order to solve practical problems of the modern world, rather than to acquire knowledge for knowledge’s sake.

Research is democratised, co-produced with and responsive to wider society, with an emphasis on impact and benefit.

(Hazelkorn, 2011 – Adapted from Brennan, 2004 and Trow, 1973, 1974, 2006; Gibbons et al, 1994)

http://www.kavliprize.org/events-and-features/2014-kavli-prize-science-forum

Kavli Science Forum: "Higher Education in the 21st Century - The Technological Revolution in Open Education: The Death of a Traditional System or the Next Wave of Democracy?"

The BIG picture

• Three streams work in parallel:

– Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile: freedom from distance, mobile broadband: freedom from location

– New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new opportunities for student supportive teaching

– New knowledge about the brain and learning, new knowledge in neurosciences

The Governments move…..

BIG

Ref. Yang Zhijian, president Open University of China, ICDE world Conference, Tianjin, China October 2013

“Promote open educational resources, to help teachers and students everywhere.”

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/09/24/celebrating-open-government-around-globe

The Governments move…..Small

http://www.regjeringen.no/mobil/nb/dep/kd/dok/nouer/2014/NOU-2014-51.html?id=766892

• The Norwegian MOOC Commission was appointed by Royal Decree on 21 June 2013.

• Final report, green paper, June 2014.

• Now on broad consultation• A white paper on

structures and financial regulations foreseen in 2015.

http://www.faberface.com/

The Regions move…..

”The main goal of this initiative is to stimulate ways of learning and teaching through ICT and digital content, mainly through the development and availability of OER.”http://www.openeducationeuropa.eu/en/initiative

The European Commission's Opening up Education initiative in a nutshell

OER and Open and Distance Learning can increase the impact of

investments in knowledge

OER &ODL

Open Access – open scienceResearch based OERResearch based teaching

Innovation in education – open innovationInnovate the learning system – flip the classroomKnowledge supply for innovation

High quality educationResearch based educationResource based educationOpen education

1. Foster awareness and use of OER2. Facilitate enabling environments for use of Information and

Communications Technologies (ICT)3. Reinforce the development of strategies and policies on OER4. Promote the understanding and use of open licensing frameworks5. Support capacity building for the sustainable development of

quality learning materials6. Foster strategic alliances for OER7. Encourage the development and adaptation of

OER in a variety of languages/cultural contexts8. Encourage research on OER9. Facilitate finding, retrieving and sharing of OER10.Encourage the open licensing of educational

materials produced with public funds

2012 Paris OER Declaration

THE STATE OF HIGHER EDUCATION:Selected key findings and rec.

• Findings• The public and individuals benefit from

higher education, HE, in financial and non financial ways.– HE generates positive returns to the public

in general, as well as to the people who obtain degrees.

• HE without a degree does not boost earnings.– Although there are some benefits to

HEparticipation, even if no degree is earned, drop-outs do not usually enjoy the same financial returns that degree holders can expect.

http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/

Better integration of education and vaulue chains needed

The BIG picture

• We are in the beginning (of the beginning) – example: mobile technology

We are in the beginning of the beginning

State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org

Image: O3b Networks

Google's Project Loon uses big networked air balloons to fill internet black holes

Google to launch 180 satellites in $1bn plan to cover the unwired

Several initiatives for covering the unwired underway

African Undersea Cables

Picture updatedMay 2014

http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/

We are in the beginning of the

beginning

The mill that grinds on the bottom of the ocean

Hege Røyert, NTB Scanpix

Navngivelse-Ikke kommersiell-Del på samme vilkår Creative Commons lisens

NDLA

The BIG change?

Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment

37% of Danish jobs classified with high probability for being phased out

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

The future of jobs; The onrushing wave

Technology and jobs; Coming to an office near youhttp://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready

http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm

The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?About 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk.http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314

Vartannat jobb automatiseras inom 20 århttp://www.stratresearch.se/Documents/Folder.pdf

Openknowledge

Societal needs

Technology

Students needs and

expectations

OERCost

Trends, within

the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation

HE needs – 1 U a week

Demographics

Globalisation

Enabling economic growth

Access

Open Access

eInfrastructureseScience

Automation

Robots Sensors

2020 – 80% connectedInternet of things Open Research

Open Data

Open Innovation

US quadruppling

Southern Europe….

Developing economies

ICT Habitus

Flexibility

Employability

Lifelong

Disruptive Innovations

The way ahead

Innovate from within to enhance learning through technologies

Leadership for change –put faculty in lead

From distance learning to open education

58

From distance learning to open education: a changing landscape

Alan TaitProfessor of Distance Education and

DevelopmentThe Open University UK

Decide Holistic Policies for open, distance, online, flexible eLearning

Set a new governmental agenda

for education

MOOC in an international perspective: New global agenda for innovation

in higher education • 1) Governments contribute to a comprehensive framework that promotes

open online education in line with UNESCO 's values and helps to establish incentives for education in dialogue with key stakeholders in the field, primarily higher education institutions, where the specific goals must be set. A clear policy for OER based on the UNESCO declaration must be part of this framework.

• 2) Leadership in transition to more open and distance higher education must be supported, facilitated and expertise built.

• 3) Incentives and support for teachers retraining, upskilling and improvement of working conditions for more open and online education.

• 4) Framework and methodologies to put the learner in the centre. • 5) Cooperation across institutional boundaries and possibly borders, on content

and platforms for more open and distance education, including MOOC.• 6) Interoperability between different solutions.• 7) Common global outlook, statistics and understanding of fundamental

concepts.• 8) Specific goals and plans for research and innovation firmly rooted in the

stakeholder institutions and communities.

Regulate online education?

Under the UK's Locomotive Act 1865, anyone driving a car in town had to be led by a man who walked in front of the car, carrying a red flag -- to prevent 'fatal accidents'

A horse pulling the car? Lectures on campus driving ecucation?

“On-line and e-learning, open educational resources, MOOCs, smart-education and other e-technologies and e-resources: Legislative and regulatory support for their development and application in national

educational systems. Russian and foreign experience”

Moscow, 24 September 2014 Gard Titlestad, Secretary General

International Council For Open and Distance Education

Round table discussion, State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation

Two policy forum planned, Future directions for ODL:

20 November 2014: Open EducationKey issues in policy for governments and senior management in higher education

High Level Policy Forum 17 October 2015: Open Education: Key issues and policy advices for governments and senior management in higher education

Interventions, from UNESCO, ICDE and stakeholders from organisations, public and private sector

Partnership and collaboration

To make a difference through

open education!

an old African proverb

"If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together."

ObrigadaThank you

titlestad@icde.org

www.icde.org