Orange Earth

The Making of the US President 2016

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Who am I?Rosalind Warner, PhDCollege Professor of Political ScienceOkanagan CollegeEmail: rowarner@okanagan.bc.caTwitter: @rwarner23Blog: http://rozwarner.wordpress.com/

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The Campaign So Far How did this happen?

Why did this happen?

What does it mean for Canada?

Overview The Making of the US PresidentClick Mouse Reveal Next Phase

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So FarThe Campaign

Businessman and reality television personalityDonald Trumpbecame theRepublican Party's presidential nominee on July 19, 2016, after defeatingU.S. SenatorTed Cruzof Texas,Governor of OhioJohn Kasich, U.S. SenatorMarco Rubioof Florida and other candidates in theRepublican primary elections.[1]If elected, Trump would become the oldest president to take office.[2]FormerSecretary of Stateand U.S. Senator from New YorkHillary Clintonbecame the Democratic Party'spresidential nomineeon July 26, 2016, after defeating U.S. SenatorBernie Sandersof Vermont. If elected, she would be the first female president.[3]Variousthird party and independent presidential candidatesare also running in the election.Libertarian Partynominee and formerGovernor of New MexicoGary Johnsonhasballot accessin all 50 states.[4]Green Partynominee and former physicianJill Steinhas ballot access in enough states to win the electoral college. Johnson and Stein (who also ran as their parties' presidential nominees in the2012 election) haveappeared in major national polls.[5][6]At least 24 other third party candidates and independents will appear on the ballot in at least some states, or are running aswrite-in candidates. Most notably, independent candidate and former Chief Policy Director for theHouse Republican ConferenceEvan McMullinhas led inopinion pollsin his home state of Utah. No third party candidate has carried a state since1968.

November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in theSenatebeing contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms in the115th United States Congressuntil January 3, 2023.Elections will be held to elect representatives from all 435congressional districtsacross each of the 50U.S. states.gubernatorial elections of 2016will be held on November 8, 2016 in the states ofDelaware,Indiana,Missouri,Montana,New Hampshire,North Carolina,North Dakota,Oregon,Utah,Vermont,Washington, andWest Virginia.5

So, the campaign so far.

The Tone

Rigged

Crooked

Liar

Lies, Damn Lies and StatisticsSlug,7

The Tone

slug

brain in a blender

pathetic

Lies, Damn Lies and StatisticsSlug,8

Congresss favourability is polling in the single digitsjust ahead of Lyndsey Lohan

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Most unpopular candidates in American history

Most unpopular candidates in American history

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Picture Page LayoutHere is a place holder for the picture caption. You may delete this text.

How?How did this happen?

Past parallels

Prohibition & marijuana

Womens equality & rights

National security & immigration

Edward Hallet Carr called the inter-war period the Twenty Years Crisis a great interregnum in which Americans confronted both themselves, their country, and their place in the world----Franklin Roosevelts New Deal led to the emergence of a massive labour movement during the Depression-reaction against this movement in the form of a racial and ethnic nationalism, as well as social and cultural conservatism in reaction to calls for womens suffrage, are all familiar issues to us today-anger against Eastern European, Catholic and Asian immigration was rampant

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2008 Financial Crisis

Banks are bailed out to the tune of $700 billion

Treasury SecretaryHenry Paulson asked Congress to establish a $700 billion fund to keep the economy from seizing up permanently. After the plans enactment, Paulson, acknowledging that his approach would not encourage sufficient new bank lending, did a U-turn. The Treasury would instead invest most of the newly authorized bailout fund directly into the banks that held the toxic securities (thus giving the government an ownership stake in private banks). 16

The Formation of the Tea Party Feb 19 2009Rick Santelli, commentator on CNBCBank bailout would subsidize losers mortgages & called for a Chicago Tea Party to protest govt intervention in the housing market

The catalyst for what would become known as the Tea Party movement came on February 19, 2009, whenRick Santelli, a commentator on the business-news network CNBC, referenced theBoston Tea Party(1773) in his response to Pres.Barack Obamas mortgage relief plan. Speaking from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Santelli heatedly stated that the bailout would subsidize the losers mortgages and proposed a Chicago Tea Party to protest government intervention in the housing market.

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How did this happen?

Although started as a critique of Obamas policies, the TEA party quickly morphed into the birther movement, questioning Obamas ethnicity, religion, and US citizenship.

The Tea Party movements first major action was a nationwide series of rallies on April 15, 2009, that drew more than 250,000 people. April 15 is historically the deadline for filing individualincome taxreturns, and protesters claimed that Tea was an acronym for Taxed Enough Already. The movement gathered strength throughout the summer of 2009, with its members appearing at congressional town hall meetings to protest the proposed reforms to the American health care system.

THE 2010 MIDTERM ELECTIONSSarah PalinMichelle Bachmann (inMichele Bachmann)Cain (inHerman Cain)Cruz (inTed Cruz: Biography)

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July 2011 Adbusters starts a revolution

How did this happen?Inspired by the Arab Spring, Khale Lasn called for the US to have its own Tahrir Moment with this cover of Adbusters Magazine

We just felt America was ripe for a Tahrir moment of its own, said Mr. Lasn, referring to the throngs who congregated in Cairos central square earlier this year to bring down Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak.The group conceived a centre spread in the magazines July edition, depicting a ballerina delicately balancing on the iconic Wall Street bull, with the words: What is our one demand?....#OCCUPYWALLSTREET, September 17, Bring tent.19

Occupy Protestors in Zuccotti Park, NY

How did this Happen?

-Occupy Wall Street brought a number of new things to the discussion:A new language to understand income inequality: 1% and the 99% really did have opposing interests-revealed the role of money in politics and the corrupting effects of Supreme courts decisions People United, which granted that donations to political candidates were a form of free speech-began the movement for raising the national minimum wage-brought innovative new ways of dealing with housing and student debt through a National Jubilee-jump started the environmental movement and galvanized the anti-Keystone XL protests a few years later20

How did this Happen?In Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada primaries, more than 80 percent of voters under 30 years old voted for Bernie Sanders

, a democratic socialist so outside the mainstream of his party that hes not even a member.

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How did this Happen?Ben Smith, Politico

How did this Happen?

Global trendsalienation, distrust and disaffection with elitesHow did this Happen?

Rodrigo Duterte, President of the PhilippinesVladimir PutinBoris Johnson and Nigel Farage in the Brexit Debate

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Global trendsalienation, distrust and disaffection with elites

How did this Happen?

A new personalized politics

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How did we get here?Economic upheaval gave rise toNew social and political movements on the left and right in responseMotivated by issues of inequality, insecurity, & alienation from the governing class

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Why did this happenWhy?

Blame The Media Echo Chamber

From Senator McCarthy in 1956to Alex Jones in 2016

Not necessarily new - Joe McCarthy, Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon and House Un-American Activities Committee active in the 1950s

Here is Senator McCarthy, speaking in June 1951 about the parlous situation of the United States:How can we account for our present situation unless we believe that men high in this government are concerting to deliver us to disaster?

As Richard Hofstader wrote in 1964, the paranoid style in American Politics is alive and well conspiracy theories abound

With his ranting style and outlandish claims, the right-wing radio host Alex Jones has claimed that Clinton is a demon, the the Sandy Hook massacre was a fake, that there was no drought in California, and that the US election was rigged27

Social media is the paranoid style on steroids

Blame Social Media

too fast for the TruthIt is not our consciousness that determines our social existence, but our social existence that determines our consciousness. -Marx28

James Fallows on the MediaMedia & reporting normsnormalize a false equivalenceweaponized disinformation

James Fallows - 29

The Tropicana Effect

Demonstrated the power of the fringe

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics30

The Tropicana EffectSimilarly, the NRAs concentrated strategic campaigns against gun control made action impossibleDemonstrated the power of the fringe for influencing the agenda

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

The NRA also spent$28,212,718on outside political contributions during this period, which includes ads paid for directly by the NRA. That makes it the tenth biggest spender when it comes to such political spending.31

Lies Damn Lies and StatisticsBlame The Quants

Demonstrated the power of statistical profiling and targeted campaignsKaren Blutcher of St. Augustine

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics During the 2012 campaign for the Democratic nomination and subsequent presidential election against Mitt Romney, a sequestered army of geeks in the basement of the Obama headquarters noticed that Obamas support with women aged 35-50 was slipping. They also noticed that women aged 35-50 were big fans of George Clooney, a prominent Democrat.

With election coffers a little light, the quants recommended that the campaign start a donation raffle to win tickets to the event, with the grand prize being an invitation to the fundraising event and a chance to meet George Clooney, along with Robert Downey Jr. and Billy Crystal.

The 150-person event, held Thursday night, brought in $15 million, from both ticket prices $40,000 per person and donations of $3 or more that entered donors into a raffle to win tickets to the event,according totheLos Angeles Times. Tens of thousands of donors contributed an average of $23 in hopes of winning a ticket, theLA Timesreported, raising almost $10 million for the campaign.Numerous celebrities attended the fundraiser, including Robert Downey, Jr. and Billy Crystal.

Karen Blutcher of St. Augustine won a raffle to attend a $40,000-per-plate fundraiser dinner for President Obama's re-election campaign at film actor George Clooney's home in Studio City, Calif., after donating to the campaign online.

She and her husband Patrick were flown to Los Angeles and back, and provided with a night's stay at the Los Angeles Sheraton in addition to the fundraiser, attended by several movie stars and President Barack Obama. Dinner was prepared by chef Wolfgang Puck. Blutcher said it was a "once-in-a-lifetime thrill" to meet the president.32

blame the Trump himself

Normal rules?Is Trump actually lyingor telling a story?The suspension of disbelief

Donald Trumpliterally:Saidhe could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and wouldnt lose any voters.Suggestedthe mother of a fallen Muslim American soldier did not speak at the DNC because her husband wouldnt let her: Maybe she wasnt allowed to have anything to sayyou tell me. (In reality, she has ahard timediscussing her late son in public because she is still grieving the loss) SaidJohn McCain was not a war hero because he like[s] people who werent captured. Encourageda foreign country to commit espionage in the U.S., calling on Russia to hack Hillary Clintons emails.33

ClassWhy did this happen?

Class

Blame it on Class

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Wall Street Journal

Blame it on Class?

Blame it on Class?J-curve Description of RevolutionSource: Derived from Davies 1971.

Not rising, but frustrated expectations.

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Profile of a Tea PartierMany, however, had been poor as children and felt their rise to have been an uncertain oneWe have our American Dream, but we could lose it all tomorrow.~Mother Jones, September/October 2016, page 25

Half of all supporters earn at least $50,000/yearOne third earn more than $75,000/year

You are patiently standing in the middle of a long line stretching toward the horizon where the American Dream awaits. But as you wait, you see people cutting in line ahead of you.---many of these line-cutters are black beneficiaries of affirmative action or welfare. Some are career-driven women pushing into jobs they never had before. Then you see immigrants, Somalis, Mexicans, the Syrian refugees yet to come. As you wait in this unmoving line, youre being asked to feel sorry for them all. You have a good heart, but how is deciding who you should feel compassion for? The govt has become an instrument for redistributing your money to the undeserving. Its not your govt anymore, its theirs.38

Expectations are everything.

Blame it on Class?

They don't hang out with regular folks like us, who like to hunt, and fish, and pray, and actually work for a living.

The ideology of the American dream leads man middle-class Americans to assume that only immigrants and racial and ethnic minorities are poor in America.. Racial difference is exploited to make poor whites feel superior.Accepted terms used to define white trash have been numerous, scathing, dehumanizing.Certain politicians have presented a "common man" image to which lower-class white voters respond positively.

They don't hang out with regular folks like us, who like to hunt, and fish, and pray, and actually work for a living.That wasDuck Dynastystar and self-described redneck Willie Robertson at the Republican National Convention, sticking it to the so-called media elites and their contempt for what he calls regular folks.

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RaceWhy did this happen?

80% of young black men have had encounters with police, while only 10% of young white men haveBlame it on Race?

-very different points of view on race-Balck Lives Matter fueled not only by statistics like this one, but also by the perception that officers seem to be acting with impunity-Michael Brown shooting in Ferguson Missouri, and the protests that followed, revealed a long-festering sore --- arising mainly from the failure of integration and the re-segregation of America

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Blame it on Race?

GenerationsWhy did this happen?

In 1984, American breadwinners who were sixty-five and over made ten times as much as those under thirty-five.

The year Obama took office, older Americans made almost forty-seven times as much as the younger generation.The War Against Youthesquire.comBlame it on Generations?"The United States spends 2.4 times as much on the elderly as on childrenMillennials are the most educated generation ever they have the college debt to prove it15.8M are unemployed over a 1/3 of the entire group

In 1984, American breadwinners who were sixty-five and over made ten times as much as those under thirty-five. The year Obama took office, older Americans made almost forty-seven times as much as the younger generation."The United States spends 2.4 times as much on the elderly as on children

The federal government spends $480 billion on Medicare and $68 billion on education. Prescription drugs: $62 billion. Head Start: $8 billion. Across the board, the money flows not to helping the young grow up, but helping the old die comfortably. According to a 2009 Brookings Institution study,, measured on a per capita basis, with the ratio rising to 7 to 1 if looking juMillennials are the most educated generation ever they have the college debt to prove it15.8M are unemployed over a 1/3 of the entire group44

Blame it on Generations?

Culture WarsWhy did this happen?

Past parallelsNewly assertive womenLeftists & intellectualsWhite, mostly male, Protestant farmers, small-business people, and professionals from non-urban parts of the South, the Midwest and the Mountain West1920s ethno-nationalism

-in the 1920, rural white Protestants spearheaded Prohibition, the 1925 Scopes Trial that pitted religion and science against each other is a close parallel with debates about climate change todayThe Ku Klux Klan revived in the mid-1920s fueled by anti-Semitism, anti-Catholic and anti-immigrant sentiment and traditional gender normsThe Supreme Court in 1922, inOzawa v. the United States,held that most Asians were not white persons, and were therefore ineligible for naturalization. With similar laws introduced to limit immigration from Eastern Europe ----- Latin Americans were virtually ignored, since Latino immigration supplied the farmlands of California with cheap labour and so was sometimes encouraged

non-Northern European immigrants and African Americans, newly assertive women, political leftists, and intellectuals untied to religious edicts47

Two broad opposing coalitions

Only this timethe outcome has been a bit different.

Today, these forces have both less and more power than they did in the 1920s. According to the Pew Forum, only 34 percent of Americans are white Protestants. For the first time in history, there are no white Protestant members of the Supreme Court. On civil rights, feminism, and gay liberation, the forces of cultural modernity have seemingly triumphed. Women not only have the vote today, but also have a significant public presence in every aspect of American life. Labor is today a much more cosmopolitan movement than ever before and has been a key advocate in the fight for 15 movement among low-wage labor, and vital to sustaining the debate about income inequality (even as its actual membership has declined dramatically since its postwar high). Black Lives Matter has exposed and protested police violence against African Americans all over the country. Liquor is again legal almost everywhere, and even marijuana is now legal in a couple of states. Same-sex marriageutterly incomprehensible in the 1920sis now the law of the land.

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Gender WarsWhy did this happen?

Gender Wars

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Gender Wars

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Gender Wars

WarWhy did this happen?

Trump: take the oil of Iraq, declare victory and leavebecause as Giuliani says, Anything is legal in warBlame it on War

In an interview broadcast on Sunday he tried to explain how Trumps call to take the oil of Iraq fit with the nominees past demands to declare victory and leave and reduce American intervention abroad.It used to be to the victor belong the spoils, Trump said ina televised NBC forum. Now, there was no victor there, believe me. There was no victor. But I always said: take the oil.

The Republican nominee has also proposedkilling the families of terror suspectsanda return to torture. Those policies and taking the oil wouldlikely violate the Geneva Convention, experts say.

-why do these ideas resonate? The same white Protestant rural families that support Trump have also disproportionately enlisted they personally experienced and bear the brunt of the costs in the form of walking wounded - they perceive the lack of funding for Vets and for Veteran services as an affront to their sacrifice-the War in Afghanistan and Iraq has been Americas longest and least satisfying in terms of outcomes

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A significant amount of disinformation still survivesBlame it on War?

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TradeWhy did this happen?

Signals and noise on trade

57 percent say international trade is good for the US economy, and 65 percent say it is good for their own standard of living.Christian Science Monitor

Only 40 percent see trade as a positive factor in creating jobs in the US

On globalization and international trade, two-thirds say increased economic integration is generally good for the country, while 57 percent say international trade is good for the US economy, and 65 percent say it is good for their own standard of living.On the other hand, only 40 percent see trade as a positive factor in creating jobs in the US but that number is up slightly from a decade ago. And in another surprising shift, Democrats are now considerably more supportive of globalization than Republicans, with a 15 percent gap opening up between them.Indeed the Chicago Council survey confirms findings from the Pew Research Center this year that Republicans, traditionally most supportive of international trade and the free-market system, are turning against those ideas even as Democrats increasingly open up to them.

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What does it mean for CanadaWhat does it mean for Canada?

The US and Canada track closely

How will this affect Canada?

Terrorists from Canada? The claim kept getting repeated

How will this affect Canada?

The story first appeared in print in the Boston Globe on September 13, 2001, and was later picked up by the Washington Post, the New York Post, and the Christian Science Monitor, and later continually repeated, despite the decisive correction provided by the 9/11 Commission and efforts of a number of ambassadors and foreign affairs officials. In 2005 a United States senator claimed that the terrorists who struck the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001, entered the country from Canada---Montana Senator Conrad Burns, a Republican, made the charge during a news conference at which he said the "porous" stretch of border between Montana and Alberta is a prime route for drug runners and criminals travelling south from Calgary.

In a special episode of the television series The West Wing aired after 9/11, terrorists crossed the border from Ontario to Vermont (notwithstanding the geographic inaccuracy). More seriously, the claim was repeated as late as 2009 by Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano on her first visit, and reiterated soon after by Arizona Senator John McCain, prompting Canadian Ambassador Michael Wilson to issue a statement yet again reminding Americans that, as fully demonstrated by the 9/11 Commission report, no 9/11 terrorists came from Canada.

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36 Kilometre lineup

It was a sharp reminder of the crucial trade relationship between Canada and the U.S., which has been estimated at $2 billion a day, both ways. There are 200 million border crossings a year. How will this affect Canada?

-A more ominous sign appeared two days after 9/11, when the lineup of trucks trying to enter Detroit over the Ambassador Bridge at Windsor backed up 36 kilometres. It was a sharp reminder of the crucial trade relationship between Canada and the U.S., which has been estimated at $2 billion a day, both ways. There are 200 million border crossings a year.

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Where Americans think they get their oil from

Where Americans actually get their oil from

could it happen here?

From 1970 to 2005, inequality and polarization have increased in Canadian citjes and neighbourhoods

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In summaryWhether we blame it on class inequality, culture wars, gender, generations or the effects of long wars.The trends are global, not unique to the US

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The Campaign So Far How did this happen?

Why did this happen?

What does it mean for Canada?

Overview The Making of the US PresidentClick Mouse Reveal Next Phase

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BibliographyBenwell, M. (n.d.). Donald Trump word for word repeating claims of conspiracy theorist who thinks Hillary Clinton is a demon | The Independent. Retrieved from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-alex-jones-hillary-clinton-barack-obama-conspiracy-theories-jon-ronson-infowars-a7365346.htmlBui, Q. (2016). How to View a Richer Year for the Poor and Middle Class - The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/upshot/picturing-a-big-year-for-the-poor-and-middle-class.html?_r=0Danziger, J. N. (2015). Understanding the Political World. Pearson.Fournier, R. (2013). The Outsiders: How Can Millennials Change Washington If They Hate It? - The Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/08/the-outsiders-how-can-millennials-change-washington-if-they-hate-it/278920/

BibliographyFriedersdorf, C. (2012). What High School Taught Millennials About the War on Terrorism - The Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/what-high-school-taught-millennials-about-the-war-on-terrorism/265192/Hochschild, A. R. (2016). The Origins of Trump: Investigating the deeper story behind his movement. Retrieved from http://www.motherjones.com/toc/2016/09Isenberg, N. (2016). White trash: the 400-year untold history of class in America.Kendall-Taylor, A., Frantz, E., & Wright, J. (2016). The New Dictators | Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-26/new-dictators

BibliographyLynch, C. (n.d.). Populism makes two comebacks: The progressive left and the reactionary right battle for ownership in 2016 cage match Populism has had the limelight in this year, but many are still making a huge mess of its meaning. Retrieved from http://www.salon.com/2016/09/18/populism-makes-two-comebacks-the-progressive-left-and-the-reactionary-right-battle-for-ownership-in-2016-cage-match/Marche, S. (2012). Young People in the Recession - The War Against Youth. Retrieved from http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a13226/young-people-in-the-recession-0412/Smith, B. (2011). An Occupy Wall Street/Tea Party Venn diagram - POLITICO. Retrieved from http://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2011/10/an-occupy-wall-street-tea-party-venn-diagram-040116#.Tp93kbxdckI.twitter

BibliographyWalks, A. (2013). Income Inequality and Polarization in Canadas Cities: An Examination and New Form of Measurement. Retrieved from www.neighbourhoodchange.caYglesias, M. (2015). Why a resurgent, unapologetic left is on the rise globally - Vox. Retrieved from http://www.vox.com/2015/9/16/9322625/sanders-corbyn-mulcairZumbrun, J. (2016). Not Just the 1%: The Upper Middle Class Is Larger and Richer Than Ever - Real Time Economics - WSJ. Retrieved from http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/21/not-just-the-1-the-upper-middle-class-is-larger-and-richer-than-ever/