making people count in strategic planning

Get set for APA2014 Hobart, 3-5 December #Ozpop14, @OzPopulation @AlphaAlison

Making people count in

strategic planningDr Alison TaylorNSW Department of Planning & Environment

Australian Population Association seminar, Hobart 21 October 2014


Using demography (and other

planning information) to build an

evidence base

• Using planning information for decision making

• The role of demography in NSW government

• Recent activity and change

• Looking ahead


• Released in April 2013

• Included focus on upfront strategic planning• Issues

• Unprecedented consultation

• More homes and jobs

• Clearer rules, better decisions

• Heritage protection

• Environmental protection


Strategic planning

• Strategic planning tells the story about a place — where it has come from, what it is like now, the vision for an area and what will need to change over time to achieve that vision.


Evidence based strategic planning

‘The new planning system will create a major shift towards

evidence based strategic planning in the preparation

of plans, community and stakeholder engagement and

decision making. The transformation to upfront planning

is the key tool for better facilitating the delivery of housing

and jobs in the right locations, while protecting and

managing the environment and people’s way of life.’


Using planning information to make

decisions about planning

• Planning falls victim to fads

• ‘Strategic planning’ is a constant

• Using information (data, analysis, insights) about planning makes basic sense

• Demography

• Land development (residential, commercial, industrial, major projects)

• Economics


Centre for Demography,

Economics & Research

• Established in late 2013

• Four streams; demography, economics, research & policy

• Created new positions including a new Executive Director and moved existing resources

• Change but survival, policy function moved

• Building the evidence base remains integral


Role of demography

• Integral contributor to ‘building the evidence base’

• Established methodology and approach

• Basic set of ‘products’• Projections – population, household and dwelling

• Reporting and analysis of current trends

• Provision of local information

• Support for preparation of plans

• Social research program

• A known entity and brand


Demography – vital

and social statistics

‘the study of statistics such as births, deaths, income or incidence of disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human populations’


Demography – for planning

• How many of us are there? • how fast have we been growing, how fast will we grow?

• Characteristics • age, sex, income, education etc

• Where do we live? • distribution now and in the future, cities, towns, rural

• How do we live together?• families, alone, with friends, is this changing?


Demography in NSW DPE

• Producing the best information to meet the state’s long term growth challenges

• Building a strong evidence base• Articulating the scale, distribution and composition

of current and future growth

• Focus on • Quality• Accessibility• Client service


Role of the demographer

• Collect evidence• Published data eg. From ABS, Dept of Immigration• Relevant research & targeted research • Local input eg. Projects/developments with population impacts

• Prepare projections • Communicate results

• Assist people to understand results and identify implications

• Monitor trends, review and update data


Recent activity

• Engagement with stakeholders

• Research and preparation of projections

• Communication strategy

• Research program

• Focus on the regions

• Build towards next projections


Projections release

• Innovative graphics & design

• Extensive communications & ongoing engagement strategy

• Demography café

• Local detail

• Value add


NSW population tomorrow

5


2031 populations (25,000 persons +)

Populations


Future trends summary

• A continuation of many of the trends of the past• Drivers of population change remain • Scale of change may vary• Age structure very important

• Distribution of the population will change• Increasing centralisation• Cities and towns in regional areas to grow• In many rural areas, continuing slow decline

• How people live together will change• Influence of age structure, economics, cultural change


NSW is always growing - don’t

we already know this?

• The devil is in the detail• the level of growth (how big will we get?)• The pace of growth (what is the pressure next 5yrs?)• The location of growth (inner city, outer suburbs, regional

centres?)• The type of growth (young families, older couples, young

and old living alone, high/low income, characteristics)

• Same same, but different• Changing age structures (different demands?)• Changing household structures (different demands?)• Changing societal trends (fewer children, downsizing, inner

city lifestyles – different demands)


Implications

• Widespread implications across all sectors of government and community

• Direct impacts• Planning strategies (eg. from Sydney Metro to neighbourhood planning)• Increase in number of clients, increase in demand for housing, transport,

education and health • Changing mix of clients will lead to changing demand eg. Mix of housing

types• Hyper-ageing in some regional areas will result in high demand for age-

related services combined with few people to work in key jobs

• Indirect impacts• Bigger market, potential for stronger economy, larger workforce• Pressure on the environment, demand for food and consumer goods• Social impacts of continuing growth, funding for expanded services

especially aged care, maintaining viable communities


More change ahead – so get ready

• Expected changes• Economic conditions• Policy changes• New data

• New projections• changes to the pace, level and location of growth

• Build in• Reviews (not just monitoring)• Strategic emphasis (longer term) - thresholds• Emphasise flexibility


2 new videos

• Link to video – see http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx

• Is it working?• Since the release of the projections there have been over 5,000

hits on the web page per month, with a peak of 10,000 hits in June (release was 22 May).


It’s all about people

making people count in strategic planning

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