making population real – lesson plan 2: the demographic transition issues population growth...
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Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Issues Population growth Development
Population Concepts
Classic model of demographic transition Patterns of changing birth and death
rates
Tools Line graphs Research and analysis
Objectives
To understand the classic demographic transition (DT) model
To explain assumptions and limitations of the classic DT model
To construct graphs of contemporary demographic change
To explain contemporary demographic patterns in the context of the classic DT model
What is the Demographic Transition? The shift from highhigh to low mortality and fertility Based on the experience of Western Europe Began by Warren Thompson in 1929 Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress?
The Classic Demographic Transition
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Time
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Examine the Model
A Model is … a representation of some phenomenon of the real
world made in order to facilitate an understanding of its workings
a simplified and generalized version of real events, from which the incidental detail has been removed
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition in Sweden
and Mexico
Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
SwedenBirth Rate
Death Rate
MexicoBirth Rate
Death Rate
Births/Deaths per 1,000
1750
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
How useful is the classic model of demographic transition in today’s world?
Assignment: Construct a graph showing the birth and death
rates for one of four assigned countries.
Is the Demographic Transition Model Still Useful?
How well does the classic model work? Is it a useful framework for developing
countries? Do developing countries need to share the
experiences of Europe and the United States? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by
industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic TransitionActivities:
1. Explaining Population Change: Graph changing birth & death rates in classic model (England) Graph & compare rates for Sweden & Mexico
2. Global Population Patterns and Demographic Transitions: Calculate natural increase by continent & country Compare demographic with economic indicators
3. Can an Old Model Explain New Trends? Compare national population patterns to model
Making Population Real Lesson Plans Population Fundamentals – Building a Foundation
Populations in the Path of Natural Hazards
The Demographic Transition –
A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model
HIV/AIDS and Contemporary Population Dynamics
Population Policy – Progress Since Cairo
People on the Move
Global Migration Patterns
Population Reference Bureau
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Analyzes demographic data and research to provide objective, accurate, and up-to-date population information in a format that is easily understood by educators, journalists, and decision makers alike.