Making Use of theNorthern Ireland Census

Brian French (Census Office, NISRA)

Census Conference, Manchester16-17 July 2015

Overview

1. 2011 Census: Available outputs

2. 2011 Census: Outputs still to come

3. 2011 Census: Administrative data and other innovations

4. Making Use of the 2011 Census (Neighbourhood Statistics)

5. Making Use of the 2011 Census (Benefits Realisation)

6. 2011 Census Successes and 2021 Census Challenges

2011 Census Release 1:Population and Household Estimates

July 2012 – Sep 2014 – Population and Household Estimates

• 9 univariate tables (all geographies NI level to Small Area)

• Statistics bulletins and laid reports

• Sep 2014 – Population Tables Report (to LGD)

2011 Census Release 2:Key Statistics and Quick Statistics

Dec 2012 – March 2015 – Key Statistics

• 45 univariate tables (to Small Area)

• Statistics bulletin and laid report

• Sep 2014 – Key Statistics Summary Report (to LGD)

• March 2015 – Parliamentary Constituency Profiles

Feb 2013 – March 2015 – Quick Statistics

• 58 univariate tables (to Small Area)

• March 2015: Year of most recent arrival in NI; Lived outside NI

2011 Census Release 2: Key StatisticsNorthern Ireland as 100 People

2011 Census Release 2: Key StatisticsNorthern Ireland and Constituency Profiles

Media CoverageKey Statistics - Religion and National Identity

Media CoverageKey Statistics - Religion and National Identity

2011 Census Release 3:Detailed Characteristics

May 2013 – March 2015 - Detailed Characteristics

• 207 detailed multivariate tables (to Super Output Area if feasible)

• Geography subject to Statistical Disclosure Control (SDC)

• Mar 2015: Approx. social grade; Year of most recent arrival; Migration

Statistics Bulletins

May 2013 – Health, Religion and National Identity

Jun 2013 – Ethnicity, Country of Birth and Language

Sep 2013 – Housing, Labour Market and Voluntary Work

2011 Census: Detailed CharacteristicsGeneral Health by Age Group

2011 Census: Detailed Characteristics National Identity & Religion (incl brought up in)

2011 Census Release 4: Local Characteristics

March 2014 – March 2015 – Local Characteristics• 126 less detailed multivariate tables (to Small Area)

• Extent of disaggregation of variables subject to SDC

• March 2015: Approximated social grade; Method / distance

travelled to place of work or study

2011 Census: Alternative Populations

Sept 2014 – Short-term Residents (20 tables; mostly NI level)

Nov 2014 – Feb 2015 – Workplace Population

• 34 tables (mostly to Ward / SOA level)

Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 – Daytime Population

• 24 tables (mostly to Ward / SOA level)

2011 Census: Alternative Geographies

Sep 2013 – Headcount & Household Estimates for Postcodes

March 2015 – Review of the Statistical Classification and

Delineation of Settlements

• 8 bands (A-H) in descending population size

• Default urban / rural split at 5,000 population (A-E urban)

• 20 or 30 minute drive times of nearest service location

• Settlement Headcounts & Household Estimates

2011 Census: Specialist Outputs (Microdata)

Jan 2014 – Microdata Teaching File (NINIS)

• 1% sample; anonymised records; limited variables

March 2015 – Secure Microdata (NISRA Secure Environment)

• separate 10% samples for people / households

Summer 2015 – Safeguarded Microdata (UK Data Service)

• separate 5% samples for people / households

2011 Census:UK, UN, Eurostat and Island of Ireland

Dec 2012 – June 2014 – UK Releases 1 and 2 (ONS)

Mar 2014 – UK - Europe Census Comparisons (CensusHub)

Dec 2014 – Jan 2015 – UK - United Nations Tables (ONS)

Jan 2015 – UK Migration Tables (ONS)

July 2014 – Mar 2015 UK Origin-Destination Statistics (Nomis)

June 2014 – Census 2011: Ireland and Northern Ireland (CSO)

Media Coverage:Ireland and Northern Ireland Report

Census comparison shows differences between Republic and NISignificant gaps in terms of average age, population density and household size

2011 Census: Commissioned Outputs

Census 2011 Commissioned Tables• Over 150 commissioned outputs published so far on subjects

such as: private landlords; kinship care; long-term health condition; and working or studying in Republic of Ireland

• Please use the commissioned table request form to submit requests to census.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk

• Please note a charge may apply for this service

2011 Census: Outputs Still to Come

30 July 2015

• Key Statistics for Settlements (population 500 or higher)

• Population and Household Estimates for District Electoral Areas

Later in Summer 2015

• Safeguarded Microdata (UK Data Service)

• Travel to Work Area Outputs

• Grid Square Product

Grid Square Productwww.nisra.gov.uk/geography/home.htm

• Mainly univariate outputs for:• 100m2 grids (urban areas); 1km2 grids (rural areas)

• Consistent geography over time• 1971 through to 2011• Valued by specialist users (mainly academics)

• Can be aggregated to approximate any geography

• Disclosure considerations• Appropriate thresholds on number of households and people• Suppression to minimise risk of differencing

Northern IrelandLongitudinal Study (NILS)www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/NILSResearchSupportUnit

• Representative data-linkage study – used to examine change through time (e.g. mortality, fertility) – managed by NISRA

• NILS ‘core’ sample (28% of NI population) is based on demographic data from Health Card Registrations, linked to:• 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census returns; and• admin / contextual data (e.g. births, deaths, migration)

• Data accessed through NILS Research Support Unit - currently facilitating over 80 research projects on themes such as:• health and mortality; education, employment and income

Administrative Data Research Centre Northern Ireland (ADRC-NI)

• NISRA hosts ADRC-NI (in partnership with Ulster University & Queen’s Belfast) – part of UK-wide initiative (funded through ESRC)

• A secure environment to facilitate approved researcher access to cross-departmental administrative data

• Aims to support research that will benefit the public, support policy change and provide a broader understanding of wider social and health care issues

• Data matching is underway for initial project (education focus)

2011 Census: Use of Administrative DataCensus Under-Enumeration (CUE) Project

• 2011 Census returns - 94% of households and 92% of individuals

• ‘Populated’ non-respondent households using data on NHS activity

in last 18 months (e.g. GP registrations, prescriptions, dentists)

• Data matching (e.g. name, sex, D.O.B., address, month of activity)

• Caution exercised to avoid duplication

2011 Census: Use of Administrative DataCUE Project (continued)

• Enhanced the 2011 Census Assessment Adjustment process

• Improved quality of 2011 Census estimates – along with Census

Coverage Survey, enabled coverage of the whole population

• International interest in this approach – unique to NI at the time

• Success can be built on for 2021 Census by NISRA, NRS & ONS

2011 Census Assessment Adjustment:Enumerated, CUE and Coverage Survey

CUE CCS

Enumerated (94% of HHs)

Enumerated + CUE

(98% of HHs)

Census Estimates

Enumerated + CUE + CCS

(100% of HHs)

4% of HHs 2 % of HHs

The CUE project was part of the wider Census Assessment Adjustment process that also included a Census Coverage Survey

2011 Census: Other InnovationsPost-out of Census Forms• Smaller, more flexible field force

Online completion (15% of responses)• Reduced: postage costs; item non-response; contact centre calls• Improved: data quality; data capture speed; processing of returns • More environmentally friendly

Relaunch of NI Neighbourhood Information Service (NINIS) www.nisra.gov.uk/ninis• Source for all 2011 Census tables• Area Profiles; Interactive Maps; Infographics

NINIS

• Redeveloped as a brand in 2012

• Over 2500 datasets• Range from 1993 – 2014• Over 100 datasets at LGD2014• Various levels of geography

• Quality assured with accompanying metadata

NINIS – home of Census 2011 results:• Datasets• Area Profiles• Interactive Maps• Population pyramids• Census Analysis• Infographics• Census FAQs

www.nisra.gov.uk/ninis

Census 2011

Statistics – Census 2011

Data grid

www.nisra.gov.uk/ninis

Data grid

Metadata

Interactive Map

Contact details

Address: Neighbourhood StatisticsDMB

NISRA HQMcAuley House

BelfastBT1 1SA

Website: www.nisra.gov.uk/NINISEmail: ninis.nisra@dfpni.gov.ukHelpline: 028 9034 8111

www.nisra.gov.uk/ninis

@NISRANINIS NISRA

2011 Census Benefits Realisation

UKSA – ‘Strengthening User Engagement’

“The use and utility of statistics should drive the development of the service. It must be the basis for all decisions about:

• which statistical outputs to produce• the form they should take• the balance between the resources devoted to their collection and

the resources given to supporting their use.”

2011 Census Benefits Realisation: Aims

• Raise awareness of 2011 Census outputs

• Maximise the utility of 2011 Census outputs by facilitating and encouraging their widespread use

• Evaluate and summarise the benefits arising from the 2011 Census – General and Benefits Realisation Reports

• Learn lessons for 2021 Census planning

2011 Census Benefits Realisation:Main Users of Outputs

• Government – central and local

• Statutory organisations

• Commercial / market research / data analytics

• Academic / social research

• Voluntary / community sector

• Individual members of the public

2011 Census Benefits Realisation:Main Uses of Outputs

• Targeting investment• Market research / Data analytics / Value added resellers• Resource allocation• Funding bids• Service planning• Policy making and monitoring• Equality and diversity assessments• Regional or local comparisons• Social and academic research• Benchmark for other data sources

2011 Census Benefits

Targeting Investment

• Store Locations, Product Lines & Tailored Advertisingo Retail Gravity Models typically include 2011 Census data on:

resident & daytime populations; approx. social grade; single & older person households; origin-destination; car availability

Resource Allocation

• Weighted Capitation Formulao DHSSPS uses this to determine fair allocation of resources,

based on population / relative need across 9 care programmes

Service Planning

• Northern Ireland Transport Modelo Transport NI has been supplied with bespoke, aggregated

2011 Census travel to work or study data at Small Area level

Policy making and monitoring

• Kinship Careo DHSSPS commissioned 2011 Census outputs to produce a

report on Kinship Care in Northern Ireland

2011 Census Benefits (continued)

Equality and diversity assessments

• Racial Equality Strategyo OFMdFM to use 2011 Census data to develop an algorithm

designed to supplement / boost data on minority ethnic groups and migrants gathered through surveys / admin sources

Regional or local comparisons

• Impacts at lower geographies or for small populationso DCAL has used 2011 Census data to identify Irish-speaking

(Gaeltacht) areas and Ulster-Scots homelands

2011 Census Benefits (continued)

Social and academic research

• NI Longitudinal Study (NILS) & NI Mortality Study (NIMS)o Census uniquely collects required data through time and at

relevant individual, household and spatial scales - over 30 approved research projects incorporating 2011 Census data

Benchmark for other data sources

• The Cost of Poor Housingo NI Housing Executive commissioned modelling work based

on data from 2011 House Condition Survey and 2011 Census

2011 Census Benefits (continued)

2011 Census User Satisfaction Survey

* One respondent did not access the data via NINIS

33 3235

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7 8 47

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Range of outputs Timeliness of outputs Tables Ability to access data* Overall dissemination

Num

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Dissatisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Satisfied / Very satisfied

2011 Census – Successes

Administrative• Post out-Post back; Online collection; Field Ops

Statistical• Census Under Enumeration Project; Address Register

Working closely with ONS and NRS

More widespread user consultation / engagement

2011 Census – Successes (continued)

• No post-tabular statistical disclosure control (internally additive and consistent tables)

• Univariate statistics harmonised across the UK – NISRA published on same dates as ONS

• More pre-canned outputs due to new variables (e.g. Ulster-Scots; National identity; Long-term health condition; Travel to place of study)

• Enhanced data access, visualisation, analysis, metadata & quality assurance - re-launched NINIS, statistics bulletins and infographics

2021 Census Challenges

NISRA Information Paper – 2021 Census predominantly online• Future Provision of Census Population Information

Greater Use of Administrative Data • Willingness to share data; Quality; Up-to-date; Access; Legislation

Pre-populated Address Register• Comprehensive; Up-to-date; ‘Strong’ activity-based records

Online completion needs to increase• Digital inclusion; Technology; Uniformity of response

2021 Census Challenges: UK Adult Daily WebAccess More Than Doubled 2006 - 2014

2021 Census Challenges: Below Average Broadband Uptake in Northern Ireland

2013 Broadband Uptake

• Below 60% in 3 LGDs

• Below 70% in Belfast

• 70% or higher in 5 LGDs

2021 Census Challenges:Increasing Web Access ‘On the Go’

2021 Census – Challenges (continued)

Paper Forms – Whether? When? To Whom?

Shorter Outputs Timetable• Earlier specification; Fewer pre-canned outputs

Greater Flexibility for Users• Online table-building facility with ‘in-built’ SDC

UK harmonisation of cross-tabular outputs

Thanks for listeningBrian FrenchCensus Office, NISRA

t: (028) 9034 8167e: brian.french@dfpni.gsi.gov.uk

www.nisra.gov.uk/censuswww.ninis.nisra.gov.uk