making waves through turbulent times - subsea uk 2011 - ods-petrodata.pdf · contents 1. section 1...

Making waves through turbulent times

June 9, 2011

Durham

Shaun Heywood

© 2011 ODS-Petrodata. All Rights Reserved.

Contents1. Section 1 – Supply

How the fleet is changing

Where have all the newbuilds gone?

2. Section 2 – Demand The drivers behind the market

3. Section 3 – Utilisation Will the market cope with the oversupply?

4. Section 4 – Decommissioning A future demand builder

5. Section 5 – Attrition Will it happen?

6. Section 6 – Day rates Looking at the rates in the market for shallow and deep waters

2© 2011 ODS-Petrodata. All Rights Reserved.

How is the subsea vessel fleet

changing?

How old is the fleet?

Age of subsea fleet

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0-5 years 6-10 years 11-15 years 16-20 years 21-25 years 26+ years

Num

ber

of vessels

DSVs ROVSVs


When will the newbuilds arrive?

Subsea fleet newbuilds

Source: ConstructionVesselBase

0 5 10 15 20

2011

2012

2013

Number of vessels

ROVSVs DSVs


How is the pipelay vessel fleet

changing?

How old is the fleet?

Age of pipelay fleet


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Num

ber

of

vessels

Pipelay Derrick Pipelay


When will the newbuilds arrive?

Pipelay fleet newbuilds


0 2 4 6

2011

2012

2013

Number of vessels

Derrick Pipelay Pipelay


Newbuilds – where have they

gone?

Subsea and Pipelay fleet


Geographical distribution of new vessels – June 2011

Diving support and ROV support vessels (43 vessels)

Asia-Pacific, 35%

Latin America, 12%

Mediterranean, 2%Middle East, 7%

North America, 9%

Northwest Europe, 30%

West Africa, 5%



Recently delivered vessels – current activity

Diving support and ROV support vessels (43 vessels)

Idle, 19%

Mobilisation, 5%

Installation, 7%

IRM, 33%

Commissioning, 2%

Working - Other modes, 7%

Maintenance, 7%

Removal, 2%

Support, 16%Survey, 2%



Geographical distribution of new vessels – May 2011

Pipelay vessels (20 vessels)

Asia-Pacific, 55%

Caspian, 5%

Latin America, 10%

Middle East, 10%

Northwest Europe, 10%

West Africa, 10%



Recently delivered vessels – current activity

Pipelay vessels (20 vessels)

Idle, 11%

Installation, 22%

Maintenance, 6%

Pipelay, 44%

Standby, 11%

Mobilisation, 15%


The drivers behind the market

Demand

Global Pipeline installations 2003-2015

Including export lines, flowlines and trunklines

Source: FieldsBase


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

km

of

pip

elin

es

Tendering Possible Planned Installed Construction

For more information please

contact your ODS-Petrodata

account manager

Pipeline installations 2003-2015

Brazil Nigeria

Source: FieldsBase

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

km

of

pip

elin

es

Tendering Possible

Planned Installed

Construction


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

km

of

pip

elin

es

Tendering PossiblePlanned InstalledConstruction For more

information

please contact

your ODS-

Petrodata

account

manager

For more

information

please contact

your ODS-

Petrodata

account

manager

IRM – a growing market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ve

sse

ls

IRM demand 2006-2014

Shallow & benign Pipeline IRM

Harsh & deep Pipeline IRM

Source: ODS-Petrodata




account manager

Subsea tree installations for 2010

Subsea trees per geographical region

Africa, 29%

Asia-Pacific, 10%

Central America, 1%

Europe, 23%

Med/Middle East, 4%

North America, 17%

Russia andCaspian, 1%

South America, 15%

Source: FieldsBase


Global subsea tree installations 2003-2015

Source: FieldsBase

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

trees

Installed Construction Tendering Planned Possible




account manager

Global subsea tree installations 2003-2015

Brazil Nigeria

Source: FieldsBase


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

trees

Installed ConstructionTendering PlannedPossible

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

trees

Installed ConstructionTendering PlannedPossible

For more

information

please

contact your

ODS-

Petrodata

account

manager

For more

information

please contact

your ODS-

Petrodata

account

manager

DSV demand 2003-2015

Global demand for the diving support vessel market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels

Shallow & benign Harsh & deep





account manager

ROVSV demand 2003-2015

Global demand for the ROV support vessel market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels






account manager

Pipelay demand 2003-2015

Global demand for the pipelay vessel market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels






account manager

Will the market cope with the

oversupply?

Utilisation

Average utilisation by age in 2010

Global subsea fleet

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Utilis

ation

DSVs ROVSVs



Average utilisation by age in 2010

Global pipelay fleet

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Utilis

ation

Pipelay Derrick Pipelay



Utilisation 2007- May 2011

Brazil Nigeria

Source: FieldsBase


40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Utilis

ation

DSV ROVSV All pipelay

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Utilis

ation

DSV ROVSV All pipelay

Utilisation

DSV, ROVSV and all pipelay vessels, including derrick pipelay

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Utilis

ation

DSVs ROVSVs All pipelay



For more information please contact

your ODS-Petrodata account

manager

Decommissioning

A future demand builder

Decommissioning – an expense that has to happen

• DECC’s estimated total cost of

decommissioning in the North Sea

is USD 38-48 billion

USD 25 billion to decommission

253 offshore installations

USD 11 billion to remove 278

subsea production systems

USD 3-11 billion to remove 3,300

pipelines

• Less than 10% has been removed

• Water depth varies between 2-312

msw

• Yearly spend on decommissioning

UK – USD 500 million

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

25-29 years 30-34 years 35-39 years 40+

Num

ber

of

pla

tform

s

Fixed platforms in Northwest Europe

Source: FieldsBase


Decommissioning – a future demand builder

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

25-29 years 30-34 years 35-39 years 40+

Num

ber

of

pla

tform

s

Fixed platforms in the Gulf of Mexico

Source: FieldsBase

• Government pushing to get idle infrastructure out over a period of three years

• Benefits for operators include Reduced insurance premiums

Increased workforce utilisation

Planned decommissioning is cheaper than decommissioning due to a hurricane

• Removal costs 3,000+ wells – USD 200-300,000 =

USD 600 million to 1.1 billion

775 idle structures – USD 1.2-2.8 million per structure = USD 930 million to 2.2 billion

• Removals have and will be outpacing installations in this region

• Yearly spend on decommissioning GoM – USD 600 million and rising


Attrition

Will it happen?

Attrition scenarios for diving support vessels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels

Excluding fleet > 35 years Excluding fleet > 30 years

Excluding fleet > 25 years All visible fleet





manager

Attrition scenarios for ROV support vessels

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels







manager

Attrition scenarios for pipelay vessels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels







manager

Attrition scenarios for derrick pipelay vessels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber

of

vessels





manager



Day rates

Day rates including full spread in Asia-Pacific

Day

rate

s

Harsh & deep vessel day rates

Diving Support Pipelay ROV Support


Day r

ate

s

Shallow & benign vessel day rates

Diving Support Pipelay ROV Support


Conclusions

• Oversupply, yes!

• But oversupply in older vessels operating in benign waters.

• Additional high-end tonnage may be required as we enter deeper waters, and definitely when the Arctic opens up.

• Estimated 25% of world’s petroleum reserves are in the Arctic regions. 90 billion barrels of oil 1,700 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the region

• The market is healthy, demand is on the rise and confidence has returned.

• Operators may restrict the age of tonnage they use.

• Decommissioning will be big business, for fabrication yards and vessel owners alike, despite reduced rates compared to installation work.


ODS-Petrodata – Field Development

Databases:

• ConstructionVesselBase

• FieldsBase

Published ODS-Petrodata market reports:

• The Aquanaut

• Offshore Field Development Monthly

• Petrodaily Subsea & Field Development

Online databases and news service

combined. Updated daily

Monthly

Monthly

Live online news service

Research for this presentation comes from the following databases and published ODS-Petrodata market reports:


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making waves through turbulent times - subsea uk 2011 - ods-petrodata.pdf · contents 1. section 1...

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