malta international airport 1
TRANSCRIPT
EVALUATION FORECASTING
M. S. Awad
CASE STUDY
SLIDES OF PRESENTATIONS AT 2013
EVALUATION SLIDE
Forecasted 2013 3,921,384 Pax
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013
Annual Error = 2.81 %
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014
Annual Error = 3.21
Using the same parameters of the previous model
FORECAST
FORECAST 2013
M. S. Awad
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
OUTLINE Introduction Objective Conditions for Fair
Forecast Data Base ( 5 Years
) Passenger/Aircraft/
Cargo Forecast 2013
Max/Min Signal Tracking Analysis
Results Accuracy Conclusions
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
The concept of forecasting by Objective is used.
Three DATA Sets are addressed – Passengers, A/C Movements, and Cargo.
Introduction Using 3 years on monthly bases i.e 36
data set
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Max/Min Signal Tracking approach
Objective To forecast Passengers, Aircraft and Cargo
movements based on Max/Min Signal Tracking approach. ( best forecasting scenario )
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Conditions for Fair forecast Coefficient Of
Determination
R2 > 80%
Signal Tracking
- 4 < S. T. < 4
MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS
PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS
EVALUATION ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013
Forecast 2013
3,921,384
AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
CARGO MOVEMENTS
CARGO MOVEMENTS
RESULTS:
Three Data Sets are analysis – Forecast 2013
Traffic Passengers - 3,921,384R2 = 99.0 S.T. = ± 4.98 ( Fair )
Aircraft Movements – 28,009 Cycle R2 = 97.4 S.T. = ± 4.22 ( Fair )
Cargo Movements - 15,199,433 Kg R2 = 34.3 S.T. = ± 4.55 ( Poor )
ACCURACY:
Accuracy of Forecast :
2 Mislead but can be fair
1 Poor
CONCLUSIONS:
Traffic forecasting will be a positive trend at + 6% growth, it will be expected to have 3,921,384 Pax in 2013. and shows a fair seasonality patterned. (Evaluation shows a fair results )
Aircraft Movements: in this category – results show a negative trend, it expected to have 28,009 cycles in 2013, this may be due to changing aircraft type to have more capacity by the airlines operators in Malta airport. Recommend to use most recent data method (2012) to forecast to avoid negative trend.
For Cargo, there is no correlation even though a forecasting patterned is developed, but that may not reflect a good forecasting results. Cargo Movements - 15,199 Tonne
UPDATE – FORECAST 2015
UPDATE – FORECAST 2015MAX/MIN SIGNAL TRACKING ANALYSIS
ERRORS VS PERFORMANCE (MODEL UPDATED)
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2013 (MODEL UPDATED)
Annual Error = 0.98 %
ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014 ( MODEL UPDATED )
Annual Error = -1.25 %
Using the update input figures for 2012-2014 .
Monthly Errors always less than 5% for 2012,2013, & 2014.
FORECAST 2015 ( FOR RECORD )
Passenger Forecast
2015 = 4,727,871 Pax
WELCOME IN THE CLUB
CONTACT Mohammed Salem Awad Consultant Tel: 00967735222692
Email: [email protected] Webs: ww.slideshare.net/
airport_forecasting