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Indonesia Renewable Energy Outlook & Prospect for Ocean Energy!M.A.M. Oktaufik!

Energy !

Indonesia Energy Sector Overview!

Source: EBTKE – KESDM 2012!

Tripled Demand & Doubled Supply in 2 decades, heavily Fossil based Energy dependent!Main factors incl. Population & Economic (GDP) growth rate !

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Indonesia Energy Outlook Model: Methodology!

Markal Optimization + BPPT's Indonesia Demand Model !

Policy, Business Plan, Economic & Politic Conditions, Technology, etc !

Indonesia Energy Outlook (2012): Primary Energy ���(Base Case: 8% GDP Avg.Growth) !

•  Rapid increase in final energy demand (domestic) between 2010 and 2030 to support GDP growth rate averaging 7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is estimated to increase 3 times of 2010, namely close to 3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold !

•  Energy supply in 2030 will be dominated by fossil energy sources (82%).!•  Coal became the main supplier of energy in the energy mix since 2015, amounting to 31% and to 38% in 2030.!•  The share of natural gas (Basic Scenario) decreased slightly (15.6%), but still higher than EBT (13%), and firewood

(10%) in 2015.!

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11/09/12!

•  Base Case scenario: the provision of NRE grew > 8% per year; increase use of NRE > 4x fold: from 141 million BOE in 2010 to 670 million BOE in 2030.!

•  EBT rapid growth has not been able to increase its role in the national energy mix.!

New & Renewable Energy Sources Contribution in Energy-Mix !

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•  2030: biofuel become the main RE utilization, particularly for transportation sector, follows by geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, solar, Waste, and Wind (total 17,5% base case)!

New & Renewable Energy Sources by Type !

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Outlook of Power Plant Capacity by Type of Fuel/Source ���

!2010 – 2030:!Multiply by ~ 5 - 7 folds!

33,2 GW (2010) -> 162 GW (2030, Base, 8%/th). !

! !-->228 GW (2030, MP3EI, 10%/th)!

!Coal PP: Primary Tech.!2030: 97,6 GW (base) and 160,7 GW MP3EI). !

NRE Vs Fossil based PP ���!

•  2010 s.d. 2030: RE Power Generation ~6x; 6,6 -> 39 GW!

•  Types: Geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, Nuclear, Solar PV, Coal Gasification/CCT, Wind, Waste/W2E !

•  Geothermal & Hydro: 12 GW (7%) and 18,3 GW(11%) in 2030. !

•  Nuclear is predicted to produce 2 GW (1%) in 2028, 4 GW (2%) in2030. !

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Renewable Energy for Electricity !•  Paradigm shift of National Energy Policy: availability and

affordability limitation of Fossil Fuel ---> more role and hope to New and Renewable Energy Sources and also Energy Efficiency in the national energy-mix in the near future.!

•  High increase of energy demand (Fuel and Electricity): population and economic growth, give more pressure to increase the energy supply (fuel and electricity)!

•  Types of Renewable Energy Technology:!•  Solar PV, Pico/Micro/Mini Hydro, Bioenergy: with their own

limitation and benefit, in particularly their site specific, low energy-density and intermittent profile. Economically can not compete the heavily subsidized fossil fuel.!

•  Ocean Energy have a better source potential, (Ocean area almost 2/3 of whole Indonesia area: a Maritime Continent) but very limited R&D activities in Indonesia.!

Low Carbon Energy Development & BPPT’s Experiences (1980 – now)!

•  BPPT has been developing 'cleaner' energy technology to support sustainable energy for more than 30 years; However, the related technology remain in their pre-commercialization stage.!

•  Implementation of low carbon energy in Indonesia has not take-off due to non technology barriers, such as conditions in the down stream and non integration of upstream and process of Low Carbon Energy development, almost all types of Renewable Energy source; such as Solar (PV & Thermal), Micro/Mini Hydro, Biomass Energy, Biofuels, Wind Energy, Ocean Energy (OTEC, Wave, Current), etc.!

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OTEC Bali (Design) !

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1979:!

Pilot Plant !Bio-Ethanol!& energy Plantation!

1990:! 2006 – 2010:!

Energy Efficiency Applications & Audit in Energy Intensive Industries!

2012 - !

1995 – 2003!

-­‐ PV Applications! & Pilotings! (Housing, Rural,! Pumping, etc)!

-­‐ Solar Thermal ! Timber Drying!

Wind Energy Technology !(Low Velocity) ! Biomass/

Biogas Power Generation !

Small Geothermal Power Plant Prototyping!

1985:!

-­‐ Solar Village! Project!

Renewable Energy!IndonesiaProject!

-­‐ Solar Thermal ! Pump!

• PV Testing !• Facility/Lab.!

Biomass!Gasification! PV Hybrid!

Piloting!Microturbine!Cogeneration!Appl. Proj.!

Solar Agro !Drying!

Biohydrogen!Production!

• Smart Grid!

Microhydro!Piloting!

• Geothermal !• Pilot plant!

Ocean Current Prototyping & !potential mapping!

• PV Industry Feasibility Assessment!

• Biofuels for Transportation !

Biodiesel!Plant Dev.!

Tap-Chan+ OWC Study (Baron)!

Timeline of RE & EE R&D : !BPPT's Experiences!

•  Islands = 17,480!•  Ocean = 5.8 million km2!•  Ocean EEZ = 2.7 million km2 !•  Costline = 95,180 km •  Population (2010) = 236 million!

Indonesia Archipelago: a Maritime Continent !

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Comparison of Energy Resources!

Renewable Resource

Low Capital

Cost

Low Running

Cost

Minimal Environmental

Impact

Predictable Modular

Fossil! N! Y! N! N! Y! N!Nuclear! N! Y! N! N! Y! N!Wind! Y! N! Y! Y! N! Y!Solar! Y! N! Y! Y! N! Y!Hydro! Y! Y! Y! N! Y! N!Wave! Y! N! Y! Y! N! Y!Current! Y! N! Y! Y! Y! Y!OTEC! Y! N! NA! Y! Y! Y!

Ocean Energy Power Generation Technology still in the initial stage!

Discussions & Recommendations (1)!

•  Long-term energy model study of Indonesia's energy condition by 2030, with the assumption of optimistic economic growth (8%) and high/MP3EI (10%), indicating the dominance of fossil energy sources (83%) over the renewable energy sources (17%) in its role as a supplier for domestic energy demand or national energy-mix. !

•  Outlook of RE utilization still below the targeted conditions of the long-term national energy policy. There is a very big challenge and opportunity of all Renewable Energy technologies & Resources in developing the future sustainable energy in Indonesia. !

•  Almost all of the RE technologies remain in their early stage of commercial applications in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy technology development need to be accelerated to join the effort to give us the so called low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable development and society.!

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Discussions & Recommendations (2)!•  Ocean energy potential was very small or unaccounted in the OEI

model. More information is needed on the potential and feasibility of the future Ocean energy application in Indonesia.!

•  More piloting and R&D activities of the OEPG technology is important to gain understanding and interest in developing this technology.!

•  Demand wise development of OEPG Plants require a good long term planning and close to the populated or industrial area. To support this requirement, a spatial mapping approach need to be conducted due to various activities (transportation, fishery, etc) present in the same area or locations.!

•  Micro and Smart Grid technology development nowadays can give benefit to accelerate the Ocean Energy development. Therefore any pilot project of OEPG need to be integrated with the other Renewable Energy Power Plants (Hybrid Power System)!

Thank You for your kind Attention!

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