MANAGEMENT OF

OBSOLESCENCE

1

Sequence

Obsolescence case studies Research trend during Life cycle of the system Causes and role of Electronics Obsolescence Mitigation Forecasting and Cost of obsolescence.

Policy guide Manual Solution for Existing Assets Strategy for Future Systems

Definitions A loss in the utility of an asset due to

the development of improved or

superior equipment, but not due

to physical deterioration

The process or condition of going out

of date or being no longer in use the

process of becoming obsolete; falling

into disuse or becoming out dated

On Condition Maintenance (OCM)

Non Invasive Procedure

Extract Relevant Database

Predict Health A path towards an ideal

situation where

minimum “Preventive

Actions” lead to

low “Corrective Actions”

need

PAF Inventory

2006

1986

2003 1981

2006

1985

2007

2008

1998

1987

2007 1994

2006

C-130

Mirage

K-8

F-7PG & FT-7PG

FT-5

JF17

FT-7P

A-5III

F-7P

F-16

Experience on Mirage aircraft

Aircraft inducted in 1967

Obsolesces started appearing in 90’s

Australian Retired aircraft

Spanish Package & Lebanon Stock

Libyan Package

System Upgrades

Avionics Concerns Mirage Avionics Upgrade project designed by SAGEM of France. Three LRUs (HPDU, and MFD) BAE SYSTEMSUD EU, Phenomenal increase in the repair prices (10 times in three years)

Demand for 5-year long-term support package .

After repeated negotiation 7 years support package concluded .

Design authority to provide training for in country repair of PCB’s.

AGAV Radar (for AM-39 'Exocet) Support package.

8

Go Back

Achievements

Fleet remained operational to meet National Security requirement

A reactive approach results in high cost.

Difficult to forecast the quantity accurately

Took unwanted stock as a package

Excess or shortage of stock

Customer in a poor negotiation position

Need to change to proactive approach in future

Chinese aircraft Case Study

Case Study FT-5 A/C grounded on advice of Chinese

Retired A/C put under storage.

Planned for possible extension of life.

Australian firm (Aerostructures) contracted for 10 % life extension.

Aerostructures quoted $ 3.8 Million.

Price negotiated to $2.1 Million on ‘Work Share’ basis.

Program named as LOTEX: Life Of Type Extension.

DISASSEMBLY

TEARDOWN ACTIVITY

USAGE SPECTRUM MONITORING

Usage Spectrum Monitoring provide usage band for the actual flights.

USM would provide stress information at critical locations.

USM Recorders (MAXLIFE) installed on five AIRCRAFT.

Usage data periodically downloaded

USAGE SPECTRUM MONITORING

ENGINEERING SOLUTION

Every structure depending upon its material, geometry, loading and environment can tolerate certain amount of damage.

‘Fracture Mechanics’ provides us the tools to quantify the property of damage tolerance.

‘ Damage Tolerance’ of an aircraft structure at the end of OEM structural life limit can be figured out.

The prospects of life extension are realized.

ENGINEERING SOLUTION

Finite Element Analysis

Internal Loads Model.

Fine Grid Modeling and Analysis.

Classical Stress Analysis

Loads Analysis

Stress Analysis

Deflection Analysis

Damage Tolerance Analysis (Fracture Mechanics)

Residual Strength Analysis

Crack Growth Analysis

Lesson Learned Excellent contribution from All Stakeholders.

Knowledge Transfer gave a new dimension to in vogue engineering practices.

As envisioned, PAF capability in the area of Structural Integrity enhanced.

Damage Tolerance Analysis by joint team of engineers.

Program Management experience at Aeronautical Research Center

LOTEX is a step forward in the direction for achieving self-reliance in A/C Structural Integrity.

19

LIFE CYCLE PROJECT ( CADMID)

20

Monitor Effectiveness of OM Activity

Develop, Implement and Periodically Revalidate Obsolescence

Strategy

OBSOLESCENCE CAUSES Aging Systems

Rapid changes in technology

Uneconomical production requirements

Environmental or safety Constraints (ROHS)

Deferred Modernization

ELECTRONIC OBSOLESCENCE

Electronic industry most dynamic sector.

Electronic parts have shorter life cycles.

Average cost to redesign a circuit card is $250,000

Study on AS900 by Honeywell International

Assume no obsolescence $ 4.24M

Design refresh $ 31.12M

Aftermarket source buy $51.16M

Obsolescence management strategy is needed

Obsolescence Mitigation Enhance weapon system through upgrades based on reuse of the existing design, especially the software.

Older Hardware replacement for fewer items

Specialist engineers to study proposed components

Lifetime buy and possible partnering with supplier.

Close cooperation required between suppliers, integrators and manufacturers

Develop Obsolescence Management Plan (OMP)

Collaboration and solution sharing exchanges across Allied Nations and their supply chains.

Policy Guide for obsolescence Management Policy guide by Joint Obsolescence Management Working Group given

in the Manual Obsolescence Impact Assessment provides understanding of current

health and prediction of future problems

Low Risk (Reactive Approach) Existing Stock • Reclamation • Equivalent • Alternative • Minor

Redesign • Major Design •Last Time Buy.

Medium /High Risk (Proactive approach ) Design Considerations • Technology Transparency • Obsolescence

Monitoring • Planned System Upgrades

Obsolescence Management Plan (OMP)

Forecasting And Cost Estimates

25

•Factors to be considered

Type and complexity, Technology , number of suppliers

and laws and regulations.

• Available commercial tools (Q-star, IHS)

•Contracting for availability and Risk shared

•Estimations of the obsolescence cost at bidding stage

•Commercial tools for life cycle costs (True Planning/SEER)

•QinetiQ and ARINC assigned to derive cost metrics

Solutions for Existing Systems

Reactive Approach

Buy from Stock, Reclamation

Repair or Overhaul

F3I

Reverse Engineering

Redesign and

Information sharing and supply chain management

Conduct market surveys to stay abreast of technology advances.

Cost and forecasting Tools

Strategy for New Systems

Organisation to issue policy for Obsolescence Management (OM) .

Project Teams responsibilities

Carry out Risk assessment to determine the risk to equipment from obsolescence.

Decide Reactive or proactive approach or both.

Develop and Implement Strategy

Measure Performance of OMP

Thank You

References Maintenance, repair, and operations-Wikipedia, the free

encyclopedia.mht

MAINTENANCE, REPAIR, AND OVERHAUL, MRO, AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE, AEROSPACE.mht

Managing the Aging Aircraft Problem-John W. Lincoln(Aeronautical Systems Center)

Aircraft Maintenance Practices, NQF Level 3: BTEC National

Guide book issued by DMSMS

Avionics Architecture Standards as an Approach to Obsolescence Management. By D.J.Jibb, J.B.Walker