managers as decision makers

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管理者 - 決策者. Managers as Decision Makers. 學習要點. 1. 學習決策的程序 2. 了解完全理性與有限理性的決策方法 3. 了解直覺在決策過程中所扮演的角色 4. 分辨確定的、風險的與不確定的決策情況 5. 認識現今社會的決策制定. 決策 ( Decision Making ). 涵義 指個人或組織為解決某項問題,就兩個或兩個以上之方案做一選擇以達成特定目標。 決策可視為問題解決( Problem Solving )。 不論待人或處事,經常在做各種決策。 決策乃是人生的一部份 決策是影響組織成敗興衰的關鍵 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Managers as Decision Makers2012*-

  • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2012*

  • Decision MakingProblem Solving2012*

  • 2012*

  • (Process)

    2012*

  • (Problem) (Questions beyond Questions, QBQ)

    2012*

  • (criteria)2012*

  • (Weight)2012*

  • (Criteria)(weight):((2012*

  • (Alternatives)Amanda2012*

  • :2012*: :

  • 2012*

  • 2012*

  • 2012*

  • Quiz a. b. c. d. 2012*

  • (Rational)2012*

  • (Bounded Rationality)2012*

  • 2012*(Escalation of commitment )

    To dream the impossible dream, To fight the unbeatable foe, To bear with unbearable sorrow, To run where the brave dare not go.

  • The impossible dreamTo dream the impossible dream To fight the unbeatable foe To bear with unbearable sorrow To run where the brave dare not go To right the unrightable wrong To be better far than you are To try when your arms are too wearyTo reach the unreachable star This is my quest, to follow that star No matter how hopeless No matter how farTo fight for the right without question or pause To be willing to march into hell for a heavenly cause And I know if I'll only be true to this glorious quest That my heart will be peaceful and calm when I'm laid to my rest And the world would be better for this That one man scorned and covered with scars Still strove with his last ounce of courage To reach the unreachable star! ! - 2012*

  • (Intuitive decision making)2012*

  • 2012*(Structured Problems) (Programmed Decision)(Policy)(Procedure)(Rules)

  • (Evidence Based Management, EBMgt)

    2012*

  • 2012*()(Unstructured Problems)(Nonprogrammed Decisions)

  • 2012*

  • Quiz2012*

  • (Certain)(Risk)

    2012*

  • 2012*

  • ()(Uncertain) (Maximax) (Maximin) (Minimax)2012*

  • 2012*

  • Quiz a.b.c.d.e. 2012*

  • Quiza. b.c. d.2012*

  • 2012*

  • 2012*()(Directive)(Analytic)(Conceptual)(Behavioral)

  • (Bias)2012*

  • 2012*(Heuristics)(Overconfidence Bias)(Immediate Gratification Bias)(Anchoring Effect)(Selective Perception)

  • 2012*()(Confirmation Bias)(Framing Bias)(Availability Bias)(Representation Bias)

  • 2012*()(Randomness Bias)(Sunk Costs Errors)(Self-Serving Bias)(Hindsight Bias)()

  • 2012*

  • 2012*1.2.3.4.5.6.

  • Right or wrong?

    2012*

    ***

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