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Managers’ Trends Report#8

Managers’ Trends Report Labour markets, employment, business & social dialogue in Europe

#8 October - November 2018

For CEC members only

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Managers’ Trends Report#8

GlossaryALDE: Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe EC: European Commission ECJ: European Court of Justice EP: European Parliament EPRS: European Parliament Research Service (think tank) EPSC: European Political Strategy Centre (think tank) G20: Group of 20 GDP: Gross Domestic Product GDPR: General Data Protection Regulation GUE/NGL: European United Left–Nordic Green Left ILO: International Labour Organisation IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MEP: Member of the European Parliament MFF: Multiannual Financial Framework NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation OECD: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development S&D: Socialists and Democrats UK: United Kingdom UN: United Nations

Content

News New publication on sustainable leadership ...3 Politics, policy and legal ...4 Industry & economy ...6 Food for thought ...7 Focus Brexit explained ...8

Disclaimer: CEC European Managers cannot guarantee for the accuracy of the information provided.

Legend The Managers' Trends Report is an interactive pdf document: you may click on links for further information.Source reference links are underlined in black Further information links are underlined in orange

CEC European Managers info@cec-managers.org Rue de la Loi 81a, 1040 Brussels Published: 6.12.2018

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Managers’ Trends Report#8

In many regards, our current way of producing, living and working has proven to be unsustainable. We have to change track and pursue a path in alignment to environmental, social and economic imperatives. Actors as diverse as policy-makers, businesses, managers and citizens have to contribute their fair share to attain the Sustainable Development Goals. With its Sustainable Leadership Guidelines, CEC European Managers provides innovative and practical advice to managers for transforming thought patterns, behaviours and processes in companies and beyond.Since sustainable development consists of multiple dimensions and requires action at all levels, both political framework conditions and practices in organisations need to evolve. As a European social partner and organisation representing managers, CEC thinks both aspects together. There is urgency in shifting the current paradigm and reinvent the way we conceive both policies and the purpose of organisations in the light of the pressing environmental, but also social and economic challenges we are currently facing.In fact, reorienting the purpose of organisations towards environmental and social objectives seems to also pay off economically. For instance, mounting evidence suggests[1] that firms investing in (material) sustainability tend to outperform other companies on traditional measures of performance. Despite that, only few companies have a unified sustainability strategy and even fewer have followed-up with actions, according to a McKinsey survey[2].Against that background, the three intertwined dimensions of sustainable development [3] offer useful insights to businesses on what to change. They are helpful to understand the different impacts of production and consumption patterns. However, it is crucial to make sense of them at individual level: as a manager, as a worker or as a citizen. Furthermore, the question of “what impact” (on the environment etc.) is closely tied to the procedural “how” of achieving change. For these reasons, personal and procedural sustainability add to the classical dimensions of economy, society and environment in the Sustainable Leadership Guidelines.Discover how leadership can contribute to driving the sustainable shift and attain the Sustainable Development Goals in our guidelines (PDF) and share our social media cards from the sustainability campaign!

[1] https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/14369106/15-073.pdf?sequence=1

[2] https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/sustainabilitys-strategic-worth-mckinsey-global-survey-results

[3] Environment, society and economy

Sustainable leadership for a world in transition

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■ Brexit | The Brexit negotiating parties have reached an agreement on both the terms of withdrawal and the outlines for the future relationship. You can find a summary of both documents in our Focus section. Economically, Teresa May's Brexit deal could lead to GDP differences of 5.5% in a decade's time compared to if it would remain in the EU. Furthermore, the cost to the public finances could be as much as 1.8% of GDP, said the research by the London School of Economics. Another study compares the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios such as the Norwegian model and the no-deal scenario.

■ European protectionism | Negotiators for the European Parliament and the EU’s 28 member states struck a deal to protect strategic technologies and infrastructure, such as ports or energy networks by giving the European Commission the competence to investigate foreign investments in critical sectors and offer opinions. EU countries will still make final decisions on whether to block foreign investments on security and public interest grounds. > Read more

■ G20 | The meeting of the 20 largest world economies on 30.11 - 1.12. in Buenos Aires was supposed to focus on issues like development, infrastructure and investment, but was overshadowed by contentious matters from the US-China trade dispute to the conflict over Ukraine. No common statement has been published, but Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa issued an own one calling for open international trade and a strengthening of the WTO. > Read more

■ Car emissions | MEPs agreed that manufacturers should ensure their EU passenger fleets must emit 40 per cent less carbon dioxide in 2030 than in 2020/21, pressuring member states to take action. > Read more

■ EU army | German Chancellor Merkel has, in her speech to the European Parliament, supported French President Macron's call for a European army as a complement to NATO. EU defense minister have until now only agreed to joint military projects ranging from a spy school to a new generation of land battlefield missiles.

■ Digital tax | A group of EU countries (Ireland and Scandinavians) rejected a new compromise plan for the introduction of an EU-wide tax on digital revenues of large companies. > Read more

■ Eurozone reform | The French and German finance ministers have presented a two-page eurozone reform proposal, but finance ministers have postponed most reforms, including by setting up a high-level group to examine a European Deposit Insurance Scheme.

■ European Parliament forecast | The online journal POLITICO has published a forecast of the composition for the next European elections, based on national posts and a forecasting algorithm. > Read more

■ European elections | Update on political formations ahead of the European Parliament (EP) elections: Conservatives: the European People's Party elected Bavarian Manfred Weber as head candidate Liberals: ALDE and EN Marche will form a common platform for the EP, without head candidate. Conservatives and reformist: due to Brexit, the EP group will loose its biggest member and seeks new far-right membership (e.g. Fratelli d’Italia) Greens: will be led by Ska Keller and Bas Eickhout Socialists and democrats: Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans will be the lead candidate of the Party of European Socialists Progressive alliance? - The leaders of the Social Democrats (S&D), Greens and leftist group (GUE/NGL) discuss the possibility of a common strategy ahead of the EU elections Far-right: Trump's ex-advisor Bannon initiated "The movement" to support far-right movements in Europe, such as Fidesz

■ Taking climate change seriously | In two separate letters, ministers from 10 EU nations and business leaders wrote to the EU’s climate Commissioner urging a more ambitious policy to help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. > Read more

■ COP 24 headlines | Main headlines: - WHO says that health benefits outweigh costs of meeting Paris Agreement - World Bank doubles funds to needy countries to tackle climate change - Polish President highlights importance of social dialogue in just transition - Tens of thousands of climate change protesters marched through Brussels

■ Employment migration law in Germany The German government agreed on a compromise to give migrants in employment a residents permit and to give non-EU citizens the possibility to come to Germany for six months to try and find employment, provided they speak German. > Read more

Politics, policy and legal

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■ Justice and corruption in Romania | The European Commission has launched a strong attack on Romania over corruption and judicial independence, just weeks before Bucharest takes on the EU’s rotating presidency. Compared to the original 2007 requirements, it called for 8 extra demands, including immediate suspension of changes to justice laws, the criminal code and senior prosecution personnel. > Read more

■ EU law prevails in Poland | Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) rushed a legislative amendment through parliament reversing changes it had made at the Supreme Court that the European Union had condemned as undemocratic. > Read more

■ Shadow on Poland's independece | Leading figures of the government Law and Justice Party (PiS) marked a century of national independence on Sunday, joining about 200,000 people marching through the capital in a parade involving far-right groups and neo-fascist activists from Italy. Last year, the annual march was dotted with racist banners with messages such as “pure blood, clear mind” and “Europe will be white or uninhabited.” > Read more

■ French unemployment insurance | The French government has entered negotiations with social partners managing the unemployment-insurance regime, to find savings of up to €3.9bn over three years as the system’s debt approaches €35bn by 2019. Around 160,000 people had protested to "maintain the social model."> Read more

■ Yellow vests | Protests against high fuel prices in France have propelled climate policy to the forefront of the political debate, just days before Poland hosts the UN’s annual conference on climate change, with a focus on the “just transition” to low-carbon energy. The yellow-vest protest began when rising world oil prices, combined with an increase this year of 7.6 cents per litre in taxes on diesel, pushed prices at the pump up to record highs. The movement is not affiliated politically nor to trade union, but claims that the middle class is being squeezed. > Read more about the movement

■ Platform worker considered employee | The French court of cassation has requalified a bike delivery driver (in most European countries considered self-employed) of an online platform as an employee, because the driver was tracked by geolocalisation and could be sanctioned - traits of an employer. > Read more (FR)

■ Italian budget | Italy’s coalition government has defied calls from the European Commission to reverse its plans to sharply increase public spending. Under the excessive deficit procedure (punishment mechanism of the Stability and Growth Pact), Rome could be issued with fines starting at 0.2 per cent of Italy’s GDP, even though no country has ever been fined. In 2014, the ECJ had ruled that Europe's finance ministers were wrong to suspend disciplinary action against Germany and France, who also exceeded budgetary limits, against the wishes of the European Commission. > Read the Analysis of the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact by EU member states here

■ Italian banks | In a financial stability report, the Bank of Italy said “uncertainty about the economic and fiscal policy stance” was undermining banks and insurers. Sovereign debt yields hit their highest levels since 2014 last month as the EU.

■ Taxes in Ireland | The European Commission has confirmed it will not pursue a legal action against Ireland for being too slow collecting the €13bn Apple tax bill. > Read more

■ Renewable energy policy in Spain | The Spanish government will remove the principal obstacle to developing solar power, the so-called sunshine tax, levied on those who generate their own electricity using photovoltaic technology. In 2017, renewable energy accounted for 46 per cent of installed power capacity. > Read more

■ Spanish recovery | Unemployment has dropped to its lowest level in a decade to just under 15.3%. But the country has the European Union's highest proportion of workers at risk of poverty, 13.1 per cent, after Greece and Romania.

■ Ukraine | Ukraine's parliament is to decide whether to bring in martial law, after the capture of three of its naval vessels by Russia. The country also hopes to unlock $3.9bn of IMF loans and help to stabilise the country as it approaches elections.

■ Mental health | The economic impact of psychological disorders is a loss of 4% of GDP and changes in the labour market only aggravate the situation, according to a report by the OECD. > Read more

Politics, policy and legal

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Industry & economy

■ Amazon | Amazon has raised its minimum wage for British (to £9.50) and American workers (to $15). The move is a reply to critics and protests that have been pushing for pay increases to tackle rising levels of poverty and inequality. The German antitrust authority has launched a probe into Amazon’s “double role” as a retailer and marketplace for sellers.

■ Uber strikes in the UK | Striking Uber drivers, organised in independent trade unions, are demanding a fare increase to £2 a mile, a reduction in commission paid by drivers to Uber, and an end to what they call "unfair" driver deactivations. > Read more

■ "Uber Works" to come | Uber is developing a new short-term staffing business, dubbed Uber Works, that would help to diversify its business ahead of next year’s planned initial public offering. > Read more

■ IKEA | The world’s largest furniture retailer is cutting up to 7,500 jobs out of its 160 000 to make the company "less bureaucratic." IKEA also plans to offer customers shops in city centres, online shopping, home delivery and assembly of its flat-pack products. > Read more

■ Alstom-Siemens merger | The European Commission has indicated that Siemens and Alstom would have to give up prized assets such as their most advanced high-speed train technology to secure clearance for their merger due to monopoly risks. > Read more

■ Google | Consumer agencies in the Netherlands, Poland and five other EU countries asked privacy regulators to take action against Google for allegedly tracking the movements of millions of users in breach of the EU's new GDPR. To tackle transparency concerns ahead of elections, Google said it would require advertisers to submit an application and receive verification before they can pay for political ads. According to the European Commission, large tech companies had agreed a code of conduct to do more to tackle the spread of fake news, over concerns it can influence elections.

■ Royal Mail | Royal Mail’s shares closed below their privatisation price for the first time on Thursday after the company reported that profits more than halved in the six months to September. > Read more

■ Vodafone acquisition | Vodafone’s, the world’s second-largest mobile operator, $21.8 billion proposed acquisition of Liberty Global’s assets in Germany and eastern Europe is likely to face a full EU antitrust investigation. > Read more

■ Money laundering at Deutsche Bank | German police raided Deutsche Bank's offices in Frankfurt in a probe of money laundering against the country's flagship lender. > Read more

■ Generali acquisitions | The third largest insurer in the world, Generali, has earmarked up to €4bn for acquisitions to pursue an aggressive new plan to grow much faster than its big European rivals. > Read more

■ Food labels | Five of the world’s biggest food companies have abandoned trials aimed at developing a new nutrition labelling scheme for Europe. > Read more

■ Open data | The Open Data Institute warned that big tech companies had become “data monopolies” and should be forced to share their mapping data so that other companies can develop autonomous cars, drones and transport apps, according to an influential campaign group. > Read more

■ Cryptocurreny trading | Switzerland’s main stock exchange has given a green light to the world’s first exchange traded product tracking multiple cryptocurrencies. > Read more

■ Stablecoins | Stablecoins are an attempt to overcome cryptocurrencies' hurdles: they are designed to hold a steady price. Their number has multiplied recently. At least 20 are now traded on crypto-exchanges and many more are in development. > Read more

■ Movies for Netflix | Paramount Pictures has struck a deal to make films for Netflix, becoming the first major studio to form a production partnership with the streaming giant that has disrupted Hollywood. > Read more

■ Ethnic minorities in leadership | In the US, this is 17 per cent, while in the UK the share is at just 2.6 per cent, according to a 2018 report. > Read more

■ Raw materials | Markets for raw materials have recovered from the 2008 financial crash, fuelled by the continued digital transformation of the economy and the rapid deployment of green technologies. Europe may face supply risks soon. > Read more

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■ Trade Unions protecting self-employed, ETUC The European Trade Union Confederation has published the results of a large-scale study on self-employment in Europe. The study takes stock of the demographics, trade union coverage and access to collective bargaining. 30 million people (around 15% of the active population) were self-employed in 2016, composed by 66% of men. Around 21 million worked on an own account without employees. An important number of these are professionals (22%) and managers (5%), although the share is similar to the general employment share (19,5% and 6% respectively). > Read more

■ Self-employed professionals in the European labour market. A comparison between Italy, Germany and the UK Between 2008 and 2016, the increase in the number of self-employed professionals peaked at +24.8 per cent, while the number of subordinated workers and self-employed non-professionals respectively increased by 11.1 per cent and decreased by 0.9 per cent. The research analyses three key questions by comparing responses in Italy, Germany and the UK: 1) the contested definition of their legal status and the ad hoc regulation adopted; 2) their status in the social protection system; 3) the complexity of collective representation within a context of major labour market fragmentation. > Read more

■ Good Jobs for All in a Changing World of Work, OECD The document emphasises the importance of resilience and adaptability for good economic and labour market performance in a changing world of work. The key message is that flexibility-enhancing policies in product and labour markets are necessary but not sufficient. Policies and institutions that protect workers, foster inclusiveness and allow workers and firms to make the most of ongoing changes are also needed to promote good and sustainable outcomes. > Read more

■ Sustainable investing: How to do it, Bruegel The policy brief advocates for an active investment approach with concentrated portfolios, and sets out a six-point plan for sustainable investing. > Read more

Food for thought Publications, studies, ideas

■ EU 2050 strategy, European Commission The EC has published its strategy to become "climate neutral" by 2050. The document intends to show how Europe can lead the way by "investing into realistic technological solutions, empowering citizens, and aligning action in key areas such as industrial policy, finance, or research – while ensuring social fairness for a just transition". > Read more

■ Global Warming of 1,5°C, IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change has published a report on the impact of a 1,5°C warming above pre-industrial levels. More extreme weather, sea level rise and ocean acidification, with detrimental effects on wildlife, crops, water availability and human health are identified as key threats. > Read more

■ 10 Trends Reshaping Climate and Energy, EPSC The European Commission's think tank has published a paper summarising key trends such as climate change, energy systems, the green economy and others. Today, only sixteen countries out of the 197 signatories of the Paris agreement have actually defined national climate action plans ambitious enough to meet their pledges. > Read more

■ Men’s mental health and work, Eurofound This paper assesses some of the structural changes over recent decades that have influenced men’s role in the labour market and the implications this has had for their health – and how to address them. Concretely, the authors recommend tackling men's mental health indirectly under "stress" and/or together with physical health to avoid stigma associated with the term "mental health". > Read more

■ Does employment status matter for job quality? Eurofound The policy brief compares the working conditions of five non-standard employment statuses with the average 66% of the workforce on a permanent contract. Holders of temporary contracts are particularly likely to have poorer job quality with regard to access to training, scope to act autonomously, job security and prospects for career advancement. > Read more

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Brexit explained The withdrawal agreement and future relationship

FOCUS

On March 29, 2017 the United Kingdom, member of the European Union since 1973, notified to the European Council its decision (following the results of an internal referendum held in June 2016) to withdraw from the European Union, thus activating art. 50 of the TFUE.Following that, the European Commission (which has the competence to negotiate international agreements on behalf of the European Union) has initiated a dialogue with the British authorities to prepare an agreement that would define the legal aspects of the “separation”, in order to avoid an abrupt, unregulated and mutually disruptive (read the bank of England report here) “divorce.” The negotiation rounds have continued until mid-November 2018, when a draft agreement (here) was revealed by the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, to the public. The agreement only covers the details of the actual separation between the EU and the UK. The traits of the future relationship between the two henceforth independent entities has been sketched in a declaration (here), revealed a week later. In this focus section we will briefly explain the content of the two documents and sketch the timeline of the next appointments until the “divorce” is pronounced and its most immediate consequences unfold.

The Draft Withdrawal Agreement: ensuring a smooth transition The Draft Agreement, revealed to the public on November 15, is a 585-page long document, structured around the Agreement properly meant, three Protocols (on the relations between the Republic of Ireland and Norther Ireland, on the situation in the military possessions of the UK in Cyprus and on Gibraltar) and ten Annexes regulating specific technical aspects of the different areas covered.The provisions cover the so-called “transition period”, i.e. the period starting on 29 March 2019 and due to end on 31 December 2020 (art. 126 and following): until then, even if the UK will officially no longer be part of the EU, it will still be bound to respect the entirety of the EU- legislation, “as applicable to the last day of the transition period”. Minor exceptions to this principle might apply in specific areas. This includes the immediate termination of all British representatives in EU institutional frameworks and the British MEPs (the fate of British EU officials is still unclear1). The Agreement is divided into six Parts, each covering a specific domain. The first part has common provisions regarding territorial questions and legal applicability.

1 According to the report on the issue prepared by the European Parliament in December 2017, the dismissal of temporary agents will be immediate, whereas officials with open-ended contracts might still continue working.

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Brexit explained FOCUSCitizen and workers’ rights The second part (articles 9-39) deals with citizens’ rights: here the rights (for both UK nationals and EU nationals, members of their families and other relatives as defined by the current EU-legislation) of residence and permanent residence acquired up until the end of transition period are guaranteed, including if the minimum duration of 5 years that is required by EU law to apply for permanent residence is not completed before the end of the transition period (art. 16). The same safeguard is recognised to the rights of workers to take up employment, be covered by social security and have equal access to all social provisions including education and vocational training. The recognition of professional qualifications is ensured, too, as well as the rights deriving from the coordination of social security systems. Interestingly, art. 36 provides for a strong exception to the principle of the applicability of the EU-legislation to the last date of the transition period: in case of amendments to the current legislation on the coordination of social security systems being approved after the end of the transition period, the new, amended versions will be applicable. The final provision guarantees that all rights acquired will be maintained by the individuals concerned throughout their lifetime (art. 39).

Single market Part three is dedicated to some specific sectors of the single market: the circulation of goods, the functioning of customs mechanisms, the protection of intellectual property, the proceedings in terms of administrative, commercial and judicial cooperation, the rules concerning public procurement and the functioning of EURATOM. In the same part, Chapter IX covers the issue of the future competences of the Court of Justice of the European Union, which might continue whenever the “European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties” within 4 years after the end of the transition period (art. 87). Also in this respect, the general principle applying is that the UK is bound to respect and enforce any matter stemming from an EU provision that has happened before the end of the transition period.

Budget Part five regulates the financial aspects of the withdrawal, based on the main principle that the UK remains liable for its financial obligations until 2020 and even after the end of the transition period for still applicable programmes (art. 138).

Governance of agreement In the final part, the Agreement provides for the setting-up of a Joint Committee, responsible for the implementation of the Agreement, organised in thematic sub-Committees. The Committee will also facilitate discussions between the two parties in case of dispute on the implementation of the Agreement, as a preventive measure to the recourse to an international arbitration panel. However, no recourse to the panel is possible when the dispute concerns the interpretation of EU-legislation, as the European Court of Justice retains its full competence there (art. 174).

Article 24 – rights of workers

1. Subject to the limitations set out in Article 45(3) and (4) TFEU, workers in the host State and frontier workers in the State or States of work shall enjoy the rights guaranteed by Article 45 TFEU and the rights granted by Regulation (EU) No 492/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council1. These rights include:

(a) the right not to be discriminated against on grounds of nationality as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment;

(b) the right to take up and pursue an activity in accordance with the rules applicable to the nationals of the host State or the State of work;

(c) the right to assistance afforded by the employment offices of the host State or the State of work as offered to own nationals;

(d) the right to equal treatment in respect of conditions of employment and work, in particular as regards remuneration, dismissal and in case of unemployment, reinstatement or reemployment;

(e) the right to social and tax advantages;

(f ) collective rights;

(g) the rights and benefits accorded to national workers in matters of housing;

(h) the right for their children to be admitted to the general educational, apprenticeship and vocational training courses under the same conditions as the nationals of the host State or the State of work, if such children are residing in the territory where the worker works.

"

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Brexit explained FOCUSIreland Finally, a specific Protocol is dedicated to the thorny issue of the Republic of Ireland - Northern Ireland relationship. The document specifies that its provisions apply temporarily. Both parties commit to finalising another permanent agreement on the future relationship ideally by the end of the transition period. Within the provisions, the UK has the obligation not to reduce the rights, safeguards and equality of opportunities as provided for in the so-called “Good Friday Agreement2”. Furthermore, it introduces the principle of creating a “single customs territory” (that is more or less the Single market as we know it) between the territories of the European Union and the United Kingdom that will remain in function “until the future relationship becomes applicable” (art. 6 of the Protocol). This “backstop” basically provides for the “automatic” continuation of the single market provisions beyond the end of the transition period, to permanently exclude the possibility that a hard-border (that includes custom checks for good and border controls for individuals) ever reappears between the two countries. Among the provisions that the single customs territory will be based upon, the Protocol formally include the non-regression of social and labor standards, the respect of environmental legislation, as well as rules on state-aid, administrative cooperation, taxation and competition (Annex IV). The text of the Withdrawal Agreement was finally endorsed by all EU-27 Member States at an extraordinary European Council, organised on November 25 in Brussels. Threats that Spain would oppose its veto have been neutralised, after an agreement was reached that Gibraltar would not be included in the future EU-UK relationship treaty, thus supporting the chances of a bilateral Spanish-British negotiation.

The political declaration on the future relationship: building on a solid basis At the same European Council, European leaders agreed on the political declaration setting the grounds of the future agreement regulating the relationship between the EU and the UK after the transition period.The 147-articles long paper is based on acknowledging the weight of the past economic, political and people’s integration and the need to secure cooperation while safeguarding the autonomy and independence in decision-making. Based on a set of shared values and principles, both parties commit to an “ambitious, broad, deep and flexible partnership” covering a wide range of domains. As far as the safeguard of citizens’ rights is concerned and in addition to the international obligations, mobility arrangements should provide for free-visa travels (for short-term visits) and esnure coordination in the area of social security. Economic relations should be based on the creation of a free-trade area, including the mutual recognition of customs and technical rules, enhanced regulatory cooperation in the areas of trade, circulation of services and capital of movements. Eventually, the “future relationship will have to ensure open and fair competition”, including for the definition of social and employment standards (art. 79). 1.4 Framework for mobility 72. EU citizens are integral to communities across the UK, with 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK. Approximately 800,000 UK nationals play an equally important role in communities across the EU. The UK and the EU have already reached an agreement on citizens’ rights which provides EU citizens living in the UK and UK nationals living in the EU before the end of the implementation period with certainty about their rights going forward. Individuals will continue to be able to move, live and work on the same basis as now up until the end of December 2020.1.4.1 Ending free movement of people 73. In future it will be for the UK Government and Parliament to determine the domestic immigration rules that will apply. Free movement of people will end as the UK leaves the EU. The Immigration Bill will bring EU migration under UK law, enabling the UK to set out its future immigration system in domestic legislation.

"2 the agreement signed by the UK and the Republic of Ireland in 1998 that concluded the Northern Ireland peace process

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Brexit explained FOCUSOn the wider international sphere, the EU and the UK commit to cooperating in defense and security issues (including the fight against terrorism and cyber-security), contrast to illegal migration and fight against global warming. Because of the withdrawal, none of the EU cooperation structures and programmes will be automatically available to the UK (starting from the Erasmus programme to the many other programmes). However, the Protocol specifies that specific agreements will be signed to ensure an ad-hoc participation of British representatives. Final point, the Protocol does not provide a precise institutional framework to oversee the new relationship but simply refers to a Joint Committee that would be in charge of ensuring the implementation of the relationship, including with reference to the definition of a dispute-settlement mechanism.

What comes next: official appointments and possible alternative scenarios With the approval by the European Council of both documents, the ball is now back in the field of the United Kingdom. The House of Commons (UK’s lower parliamentary chamber) will vote on the documents on 11 December. In case the Agreement is adopted, the British government will “translate” the content of the Agreement into a piece of British legislation (plus possible side-individual acts covering specific aspects of the Agreement. This new piece of legislation will have to be approved by the British Parliament between January and February, and in any case before the start of the transition period. From the EU-side, the European Parliament will have to approve the deal (indicatively in January), and so will all remaining 27 Member States. Only after all these steps are taken will the Withdrawal Agreement entry into force in its current formulation.

In a difficult position: Teresa May source

Of course, nobody can really say what “deviations” from this path political leaders on both sides will decide to take in case of hitches. To start with, chances are high that Ms. May will not have a majority in favor of the Agreement on 11 December. In this case the European leaders might decide on concessions to have a second UK parliamentary vote (a European council will take place on 13 and 14 December). Others support the idea that, in case this Agreement collapses, a new solution could be found that would offer the UK a similar status than the one Norway has (in the context of the European Economic Area agreement). The rejection of the Agreement could force the resignation of Ms. May as some commentators argue. The Labour party’s position on Brexit is still rather unclear, and includes voices for a possible second referendum. The worst scenario would be a unilateral, unregulated separation – what commentators and politicians call “hard Brexit”: nobody can really say what it would look like on either side and what would be its real consequences on the economies and societies on either side of the Channel. However, there is unanimity on the necessity to avoid this outcome at all costs. > Read the Draft Withdrawal Agreement > Read the Declaration on the Future Relationship