managing a complex world
TRANSCRIPT
Managing a complex world.
Innovation to commoditisation.
align to the business
keep up with latest trends
align to the business
keep up with latest trends focus on core
align to the business
keep up with latest trends focus on core
align to the business good
governance
keep up with latest trends focus on core
align to the business good
governance
detailed planning
keep up with latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
detailed planning
keep up with latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
detailed planning
flexible
keep up with latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
SAAS
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0 Web 3.0
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0 Web 3.0
Enterprise 2.0
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0 Web 3.0
Enterprise 2.0
BPEL
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0 Web 3.0
Enterprise 2.0
BPELBPMN
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0 Web 3.0
Enterprise 2.0
BPELBPMNTOGAF
innovative
cost efficient
keep up with latest trends
show ROI
focus on core
adaptable
align to the business good
governance
secure
detailed planning
flexible
Utility computingSAAS
Web 2.0 Web 3.0
Enterprise 2.0
BPELBPMNTOGAF
Open source
Infamy, Infamy ...
PrintingDucksOpen Source
Information Tech.
Football
Chaos
Politics
Genetics
People
ParticipationFreedom
Environment
Electronics
PatentsCommoditisation
Maths
PrintingDucksOpen Source
Information Tech.
Football
Chaos
Politics
Genetics
People
ParticipationFreedom
Environment
Electronics
PatentsCommoditisation
Maths
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mscolly/145052885/
Commoditisation
Commoditisation
Impact
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
DANGER!Will Robinson
DANGER!
http://bancomicsans.com/home.html
45 mins
385 slides
http://www.flickr.com/photos/greencracker/960860731/
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
End of DANGER!
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
change from monopolistic to perfect competition
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jm999uk/1239833037/sizes/l/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
New ThingNew
New Thing Leading EdgeNew
New Thing ProductsLeading EdgeNew
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
1890’s
Electricity
Screenshot taken from web at http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/index2.htm
Screenshot taken from web at http://padovacultura.padovanet.it/homepage-6.0/Oliver%20twist%204.JPG
Chicago Daily News negatives collection, DN-0003451. Courtesy of the Chicago Historical Society.
Electricity is a powerful constitutional tonic
American Electrotherapeutic Association, 1892
http://www.scene-stealers.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/bride_of_frankenstein.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Harvey Hubbell(1857-1927)
1890’s 1930’s
Electricity NationalGrid
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
Internet
Power
CPU.
Internet
Power
CPU.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
New
Competitive Advantage
CommonUtility
Cost of doing business
Products
web
Competitive Advantage
Screenshots taken from web at http://www.strassmann.com/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/266513181/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/266513181/
Competitive Advantage
Nick Carr
As IT becomes ubiquitous ... it has no strategic
value
Cost of doing business
web 1.0
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
web 2.0
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
1890’s 1930’s
Electricity NationalGrid
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Internet
Power
CPU.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Nick Carr
As IT becomes ubiquitous ... it has no strategic
value
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
+
+
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sheds/709701976/
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
Service
App
Internal
App
Internal
Internal
Internal
Enterprise Service
Bus
External
Internal
External
App
Internal
Enterprise Service
Bus
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service
Bus
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service
Bus
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service
Bus
Infrastructure
De ArchitecturaMarcus Vitruvius
Pollio(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Service Orientated Architecture
VirtualisationSoftware as a Service
(SaaS)
Utility computing
Grid Computing
modified from http://www.flickr.com/photos/juanillooo/471668553/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
Definitions
Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)
An architectural style for creating and using business
processes as services.
Virtualisation
A technique for hiding physical characteristics of
computing resources from its consumers.
Grid computing
A technical architecture consisting of a collection of computers acting as though they are a single computer.
Utility computing
The packaging of computing resources, such as
computation and storage as a metered service.
Software as a Service (SaaS)
A delivery model where vendors operate and host
services for use by customers over the internet.
SOA
SaaS
Utility
Grid
Virtualisation
De ArchitecturaMarcus Vitruvius
Pollio(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Service Orientated Architecture
VirtualisationSoftware as a Service
(SaaS)
Utility computing
Grid Computing
Hardware
Application
Framework
New Thing ProductsLeading EdgeNew
Hardware
Application
Framework
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
Hardware
Application
Framework
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Service
Service
Service
New
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
+
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Hardware
Application
Framework
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
CommonNew
COMMODITISATION
CommonNew
New
Innovation
Innovation?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
John Locke (1632 - 1704)
It being that term which, I think, serves best to stand for whatsoever is the object of understanding when man thinks.
InnovationIdea
Professor Jan Fagerberg
Innovation is the first attempt to carry out [an idea] into practice.
Q. the first wireless radio?
Nikola Tesla, 1893
Q. the first useable electric light bulb?
Sir Joseph Wilson Swan, 1860
http://www.americanrevolution.com/BenjaminFranklinDiscoversElectricity.jpg
Thomas Francois Dalibard, May 1752
http://memory.loc.gov/master/mss/mwright/04/04003/0030d.jpg
Felix Du Temple, 1874
“Whenever you prove who was first, the harder you look you will find someone else who was
more first”
Eliot Sivowitch
Professor Jan Fagerberg
Innovation is the first-ish attempt to carry out [an idea] into practice.
InnovationIdea
InnovationIdea
Francesco Petrarca (1304 - 1374)
Founder of the Humanist movement (Renaissance)
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
InnovationIdea
Invention
Discovery
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
1. Not a straight line
Internet
Power
CPU.
Idea
Invention
DiscoveryCo
mmo n
Innovation
Idea
Invention
DiscoveryCo
mmo n
Innovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
2. Not just things
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Practice
3. Not everything spreads
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Innovation
4. Acceleration
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
NETWORK EFFECTS
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
INTERNET
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
STANDARDS
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
OPEN SOURCE
5. Friend and Foe
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
NON STRATEGIC COST
Screenshot taken from web at http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/index2.htm
Distribution
Distribution
Distribution
Distribution
Barrier to Participation
Cost of Doing Business
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
Service
Service
Service
New
Innovation?
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Practice
Idea
Invention
Discovery
Innovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
NETWORK EFFECTS
Printing and Distribution
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
Idea
Invent
ion
Discov
ery
Common
Innova
tion
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
PrintingGraphsOpen Source
Information Tech.
Football
Fotango
Politics
Genetics
People
ParticipationFreedom
Environment
Electronics
PatentsCommoditisation
Maths
PrintingE=mc
Open Source
Information Tech.
Football
Fotango
Politics
Genetics
People
ParticipationFreedom
Environment
Electronics
PatentsCommoditisation
Maths
2
http://www.flickr.com/photos/greencracker/960860731/
http://flickr.com/photos/angermann/54282399/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/librarygeek/445462071
Activity
A process, sub-process or result thereof, including any product or service consumed
or created
Everett Rogers (1931-2004)
Adop
tion
Time
Ubiquity
Nove
l
Ubiquity
Nove
lCo
mmon
Ubiquity
Nove
lCo
mmon
Certainty
Nove
l
Low
Com
mon
Certainty
Nove
l CertaintyLow High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Ubiquity
Certainty
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Ubiquity
Certainty
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Early 80s - innovation of CRM
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Mid 80s - early adoption of database
marketing.
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Early 90s - CRM products
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Early 00s - Utility-like
CRM
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Early 80s - innovation of CRM
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Early 00s - Utility-like
CRM
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Commodity
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Commodity
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jm999uk/1239833037/sizes/l/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vickispix/303920709
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Few competitors
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Few competitors
High Cost
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is necessary
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is necessary
Agile (XP, SCRUM)
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is necessary
Agile (XP, SCRUM)
Competitive advantage
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Deviation from norms is necessary
Agile (XP, SCRUM)
VC like funding
Competitive advantage
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Web 3.0
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Commodity
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Wealth of information
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Wealth of information
Defined
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Wealth of information
Defined
Many competitors
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Wealth of information
Defined
Many competitors
Low Cost
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Deviation from norms is undesireable
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Deviation from norms is undesireable
Defined (Prince, Six Sigma)
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Deviation from norms is undesireable
Defined (Prince, Six Sigma)
Cost of doing business
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Deviation from norms is undesireable
Defined (Prince, Six Sigma)
Cost of doing business
Focus on cost
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Scarcity of information
Undefined
Few competitors
High Cost
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Telephone
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Commodity
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Agile
Defined
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
CRM
CRM
Observation 1Methodologies
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Six Sigma
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Commodity
Six Sigma
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Six Sigma
Innovation
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Different Methodologies
Observation 2Outsourcing
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
IT Activities
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
IT Activities
Marketing Activities
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Marketing Activities
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Nove
l
Low
Commodity
High
Com
mon
Innovation
Nove
l
Low
Transition
High
Com
mon
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Observation 3 Vendors
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Competitive Advantage
Exclusive
High ValueCustomer perception
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Product
Wealth of information
Low cost to produce
Many consumers
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Product
Customer perception
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Perception gap
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Branding
Observation 4Organisation
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Nove
l
Low
Commodity
High
Com
mon
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
Six sigma
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Operations
IT
HR
Marketing
Sales
Finance
IT Activities
Marketing Activities
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation CommodityTransition
Collective Intelligence
Knowledge Capture
Participation Architectures
Social Networks
Mass Collaboration
Wikis
Aggregation
Enterprise 2.0
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
The system must be able to equal the number of states in the input with at least an equivalent number of states in
the regulatory process
Ashby’s Law
Requisite Variety
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Defined
Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
Observation 5Order and Disorder
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Maintain office facilities
Set budgets
Manage payroll
Recruit staff
Capture customer request for service
Capture product predictions from information market
Audit site useabilityMaintain corporate wiki
Maintain search rank listing
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Maintain office facilities
Set budgets
Manage payroll
Recruit staff
Capture customer request for service
Capture product predictions from information market
Audit site useabilityMaintain corporate wiki
Maintain search rank listing
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Professor Leigh M. Van Valen
Red Queen Hypothesis
Adapt to survive today.
Adapt to survive today.
Innovate to survive tomorrow.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sheds/709701976/
De ArchitecturaMarcus Vitruvius
Pollio(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Herbert A. Simon 1916-2001
Theory of Hiearchy
Competitive
Competitive
Cost of Doing Business
Competitive
Cost of Doing Business
Nove
l
Low
Commodity
High
Com
mon
Competitive
Cost of Doing Business
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service Bus
Infrastructure
Competitive
Cost of Doing Business
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inkytwist/364224409/
Yesterday’s hot stuff
Today’s boredom
Nick Carr
As IT becomes ubiquitous ... it has no strategic
value
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service
Bus
Infrastructure
Service
Service
Service
Innovations
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Commodity
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Different Methodologies
Innovation
Nove
l
Low
Transition
High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Perception gap
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Defined
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Adapt to survive today.
Innovate to survive tomorrow.
Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
DANGER!Will Robinson
DANGER!
Practical Steps
Low HighCertainty
Innovation
First Mover
Transitional
CommodityNo
vel
Com
mon
Ubiquity
Low HighCertainty
Transitional
CommodityNo
vel
Com
mon
Ubiquity
Low HighCertainty
Innovation
First Mover
Nove
lCo
mmon
Ubiquity
Uncertain & Risky
Investment strategy
Potential CA
Deviation is necessary
Unknown market / effect
You’re on your own
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
Nove
lCo
mmon
Ubiquity
Effe
ctInnovation
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
Nove
lCo
mmon
Ubiquity
Effe
ctFirst Mover
Prediction is possible
ROI strategy
Actual CA
Customisation focus
Estimate market / effect
Some competition
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
Nove
lCo
mmon
Ubiquity
Effe
ctTransition
Whitepapers / Conferences
ROI strategy
Declining CA
Standardisation focus
Early KPIs
Many competitors
+ve
-ve
Time
Low HighCertainty
Nove
lCo
mmon
Ubiquity
Effe
ctCommodity
Best practices etc.
Cost focus
Cost of doing business
Defined processes
KPI driven
Consolidation / outsourcing
Low HighCertainty
Pioneer
Colonist
Town PlannerNo
vel
Com
mon
Ubiquity
Map your business
Be aware of lifecycle
Think componentisation
Think organisation
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Defined
Commoditisation
Impact
Innovation
Why nothing is simple
Predictions
De ArchitecturaMarcus Vitruvius
Pollio(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Nove
l
Low
Commodity
High
Com
mon
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service
Bus
Infrastructure
Service
Service
Service
Innovations
Idea
Invention
Discovery
CommonInnovation
1. An increase in the rate at which innovative services and products are released to the web.
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
Hardware
Software
Framework
NON STRATEGIC COST
Barrier to Participation
Non-StrategicCODB
Competitive Advantage
2. More disruption in the information markets.
New Thing Products CommonUtility
Leading EdgeNew
PRESSURE
Hardware
Software
Framework
De ArchitecturaMarcus Vitruvius
Pollio(80-25 BC)
http://www.bl.uk/popups/science14-pop.html
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Defined
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Survival requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.
Innovation requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
3. Increasing organisational pressure within IT.
App
External
Internal
External
App
App
Internal
External
Enterprise Service
Bus
Infrastructure
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Maintain office facilities
Set budgets
Manage payroll
Recruit staff
Capture customer request for service
Capture product predictions from information market
Audit site useabilityMaintain corporate wiki
Maintain search rank listing
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Innovation
Commodity
Nove
l
Low High
Com
mon
Branding
4.The architecture will never be completed.
1. Faster, Faster.
2. More disruption.
1. Faster, Faster.
3. Increasing pressure.
2. More disruption.
1. Faster, Faster.
4. Never completed.
3. Increasing pressure.
2. More disruption.
1. Faster, Faster.
Infamy, Infamy ...
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