managing complexity - university of oxford · managing complexity challenges from infrastructure...

Managing Complexity Challenges from infrastructure interdependencies in urban systems: ICIF update ARCC / Infrastructure Operators’ Adaptation Forum

Dr Liz Varga, [email protected] ICIF project colleagues 12th June 2014

Infrastructure assets §  Not the same as other types of capital stock (Égert et al,

2009) §  natural monopoly characterised by public good

§  citizens gain universal access to basic requirements §  address poor service and ecological concerns via public forums and

political means §  enabler of economic activity as well as social cohesion §  network effects and spill-overs into other sectors

§  property prices hikes when OFSTED changes a school evaluation. §  large scale with long life-cycles of investment and alternative

financing models §  extensive government intervention

§  various forms of regulation or state ownership which can have competition enhancing effects

§  economies of scale

© Cranfield University 2013 2

Infrastructure systems §  Built traditionally for the long-run (Victorians) §  Embedded often explicit assumption of the investments

worthwhile nature based on some cost-benefit that will arise contingent upon the use made of the infrastructure

§  Implies that the system will need to be uninterrupted and undisturbed otherwise benefits delivery would be compromised.

§  Result is that infrastructure systems have been kept separate and isolated as far as possible using controls to ensure benefits delivery. §  E.g. legislation, regulation, functional departments and organizations

(e.g. electricity, water), disciplinary (academic) specialization and industrial (and professional) groups

§  Controls act as negative feedback to ensure a status quo in the infrastructure system creating inertia and leads to sweating of assets and avoidance of adaptation


Focus on interdependencies §  Interdependencies create vulnerabilities to

cascade failures and their associated problems [BIS] but they also open up new entrepreneurial opportunities to create and capture value in international markets [Frontier Economics]


ICIF vision

§  To achieve a major improvement in commercialisation and policy-making through a step-change improvement in §  the integration of knowledge from the social and

engineering sciences on the relationships between the emerging technical and market opportunities brought about by interdependencies and their commercial exploitation by investors and firms.


ICIF

§  EPSRC funded EP/K012347/1, UCL led


Brian Collins CB UCL, WSA

Francesca Medda UCL WSB

Paul Jeffrey Cranfield WSC

Paul Nigh?ngale Sussex WSD Colin Taylor Bristol WSE

Abubakr Bahaj Southampton

Keith Clarke CBE advisory group chair

Partners


JOHN DORA CONSULTING LIMITED

The Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21

WSA: Future scenarios and integration


Reasons to understand interdependencies •  Climate change •  Increase in extreme events (storms, flooding etc) •  Risk of terrorism •  Increasing dependence on ICT •  Increasing dependence on electricity supply •  Poorly understood risks of cascade failures •  The need to upgrade/replace aging infrastructure •  Concerns regarding energy security

Infrastructure comprises a complex system of systems in which wicked problems and baffling interacRons are pervasive. Infrastructure interdependence has many dimensions, holisRc understanding of these dimensions is required to help protect essenRal services or criRcal naRonal infrastructure.

WSA: Future scenarios and integration


Research elements: •  HolisRc re-‐examinaRon of infrastructure interdependencies •  Expert engagement across sectors •  Conceptual representaRon of infrastructure space

Dudenhoeffer and Permann, 2006

WSB: Risk Identification and Analysis

SpaRo-‐temporal analysis idenRfying: •  Risks and vulnerabiliRes including

cumulaRve risks •  OpportuniRes for improving

resilience and adaptaRon •  Challenges and constraints

A range of non-‐infrastructure interdependencies and challenges/opportuniRes will be considered (e.g. policy, environment) Differing forms of failure and threats to infrastructure, parRcularly those with differing Rmescales (e.g. extreme events and long term climate change) will be explored

Constraint (e.g. protected

habitat)

Low risk /opportunity area

Vulnerability (e.g. flood risk)

10

Individual site

•  Individual site with a small number of interdependencies (e.g. energy, water, ICT) •  Interviews with industry partners • Data collec?on • Cri?cal components analysis

Mul?ple sites

• Mul?ple sites and interdependencies • Spa?al-‐temporal models • Failure analysis (e.g. the sources and influences of failures) • Simula?on and agent-‐based modelling of failure types

Regional

•  Increasing complexity •  ‘System of systems’ vulnerability analysis • Considera?on of scenarios – e.g. socio-‐economic, policy and environment change •  Iden?fica?on of risks and opportuni?es (e.g. adapta?on), par?cularly their distribu?on and trade-‐offs

InternaRonal

•  Interna?onal and transboundary challenges (e.g. ports, marine renewables) • Learning from interna?onal experiences

The research will consider the differing scales at which interdependencies occur and affect organisaRons

Increasing complexity

WSB: Risk Identification and Analysis

WSC & WSD: Delivering innovative business models §  Be\er understand the interface between infrastructure assets,

their end-‐users on the one hand, and commercial enterprises, on the other.

§  Explore how services are delivered through infrastructure and how value is created, distributed and captured by commercial enRRes that parRcipate in the delivery of services.


“A business model is a well-specified system of inter-dependent structures, activities and processes that serves as a firm’s organizing logic for value creation (for its customers) and value appropriation (for itself and its partners).” Sorescu, A., Frambach, R., Singh, J., Rangaswamy, A., & Bridges, C., InnovaRon in Retail Business Models, Journal of Retailing, 87S (1,2011), S3-‐S16.

§  InvesRgate governance structures, organizaRonal forms, and business models that best describe how infrastructure operates interna?onally.

§  InvesRgate possibiliRes to improve service quality and economic efficiency of infrastructure, focusing on the transport and water sectors.

§  Research will be based on a number of nested case studies, spanning different analyRcal levels, from city governance, to organizaRonal forms and business models. Furthermore, two streams of industry engagement workshops are planned. One with a longitudinal focus group and one ad-‐hoc and case study based.


WSC & WSD: Delivering innovative business models

WSE: Learning Journey


§  Understanding the infrastructure delivery challenge, together with the development of innovaRve infrastructure modelling and novel business models, involves a paradigm shi[ in the way in which infrastructure is conceptualised.

§ Making this transiRon draws on the ability to learn as part of a conRnuous and iteraRve journey.

WSE: Learning Journey


§  The ICIF Learning Journey Framework Supports and scaffolds the ways in which infrastructure stakeholders learn and lead, in order to make learning visible, so as to enhance the speed with which they develop and implement innovaRve and effecRve soluRons to the complex ‘wicked’ problems of the 21st Century Infrastructure System.

The European Consumer


h\p://ec.europa.eu/research/innovaRon-‐union/pdf/Report_from_EG_on_Retail_Sector_InnovaRon_A4_FINAL_2.pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none

Urban Systems & their futures §  Urban areas cover just 2.8% of the Earth’s

land area, but over 50% of the human population lives in them §  these proportions are increasing rapidly §  in the developed world the proportion of urban

dwellers is even greater. §  Urban areas also use most of the resource

produced elsewhere, and generate much of the waste.


h\p://bess-‐urban.group.shef.ac.uk/f3ues/why-‐urban-‐ecosystem-‐services/

Unsustainable Futures

© Cranfield University 2014 18 © Cranfield University 2013 18

h\p://www.sustainable-‐lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D1.1_Baseline_Report_short.pdf p7

Sustainable Development §  Following the United Nations 2005 World

Summit sustainable development was defined as the interdependent and mutually reinforcing pillars of §  economic development, §  social development and §  environmental protection


Future policies and plans §  Across sectors, timelines show significant planning in some areas

of national infrastructure and a paucity of planning in others. §  They also show that planning in some infrastructure areas, such

as ICT, has naturally much shorter time horizons as technological development and replacement is much more rapid than in other areas, such as transport.

§  It is important to note that the issues driving the policies and plans vary across sectors, ranging from high level policy commitments such as carbon emission reduction, to commercial developments such as 4G mobile communications.

§  As well as providing this visual mapping capability, the timelines should be used to identify where positive and negative interdependencies exist both within infrastructure sectors and across multiple sectors


Operational Resilience - Network topologies

© Cranfield University 2014 22 e.g. Erdes-‐Renyi model e.g. Barabasi Albert

Yemini, Columbia University

Robustness between interdependent networks §  How can robustness be improved through network connectivity

understanding? §  Using different types of network topology (distribution of degree-

nodes) and numbers of nodes §  Assuming each node in network A depends on one node in network

B, and vice versa §  Attending to additional characteristics

§  the load on the node, §  the dynamic changes of the load, §  and the capacity of the node to handle the extra load in the actual

interdependent infrastructure networks. §  Testing different link types:

§  assortative link (AL): high-degree (low-degree) nodes in A network link high-degree (low-degree) nodes in B network

§  disassortative link (DL): high-degree nodes in A network link low-degree nodes in B network

§  random link (RA), connect randomly two nodes in networks A and B


Wang et al (2014) Robustness of interdependent networks with different link pa\erns against cascading failures, Physica A

Cascading failures – networks results


Wang et al (2014) The order of the opRmal link pa\ern improving the robustness of the interdependent networks against cascading failures is BA–BA (AL) > BA–ER (AL) > BA–ER (RA) > BA–BA (RA) > BA–ER (DL) > BA–BA (DL).

Infrastructure System Interdependencies


Challenges?

§  Devising policies and commercial strategies, for managing inter-dependencies: §  Economic, Environmental, Societal §  Operational Robustness and Resilience, and

Adaptation, Investment and Growth §  Supply and Demand (context of demographic and

behavioural change) §  Across all economic infrastructure systems at

different scales §  Creating impact in the UK against international

comparators


ISNGI

§  Abstracts 20 June §  1600-3000 words

§  30 Sep – 1 Oct 2014 §  Vienna


h\p://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/isngi

Themes Infrastructure Provision and Social Needs Resilience and Reliability of Interdependent Infrastructures Mul?-‐level and Transna?onal Governance issues Legacy Infrastructure Infrastructure and the City Infrastructure and Extreme Events Infrastructure Financing Infrastructure and Systemic Risk Infrastructure Modelling and Simula?on Infrastructure and Big/Open Data

Managing Complexity Challenges from infrastructure interdependencies in urban systems: ICIF update ARCC / Infrastructure Operators’ Adaptation Forum

Thank you

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