managing for future risks of fire, post-fire flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_scissions_22sep2014... ·...

38
US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Case Study New Mexico - Watershed Responses following Major Wildfires of 2011 thru 2014 in the Albuquerque District AOR Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and Extreme Precipitation September 22 23, 2014 Southern Nevada Water Authority Las Vegas, NV Stephen K. Scissons, PE, CFM USACE ABQ District

Upload: others

Post on 03-Aug-2020

6 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

US Army Corps of Engineers

BUILDING STRONG®

Case Study New Mexico - Watershed

Responses following Major

Wildfires of 2011 thru 2014 in the

Albuquerque District AOR

Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire

Flooding and Extreme Precipitation September 22 – 23, 2014

Southern Nevada Water Authority

Las Vegas, NV

Stephen K. Scissons, PE, CFM

USACE – ABQ District

Page 2: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Presentation Overview

ABQ District – AOR

Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

Case Studies

Watershed Characteristics

Rainfall and Flooding Events

Watershed Response

Watershed Recovery

Questions

Page 3: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

ABQ District – Area of Responsibility

South Pacific Division ► Sacramento District

► Los Angeles District

► San Francisco District

► Albuquerque District

Colorado – Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande

New Mexico – Canadian, Pecos, Upper San Juan, Gila, & Rio Grande

Texas – Pecos, Rio Grande

Page 4: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

4

Asaayi Lake Fire, 2014

Page 5: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

5

Page 6: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Case Studies

Las Conchas Fire 2011

► Central New Mexico – Jemez Mountains

► ~160,000 acres (ac.)

► Human Caused (power line)

► Discussion:

• Precipitation

• Watershed / Geomorphology

Whitewater-Baldy Complex 2012

► Southwest New Mexico – Gila National Forest

► ~300,000 ac.

► Lightning caused

► Discussion:

• Precipitation

6

Page 7: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Watershed Characteristics

Fire History

7

Select Fires in the Jemez Mountains:

La Mesa (1977) ~ 15,500 ac.

Dome (1996) ~ 16,000 ac.

Oso (1998) ~ 5,200 ac.

Cerro Grande (2000) ~ 48,000 ac

San Miguel (2009) ~1,700 ac.

South Fork (2010) ~ 20,000 ac.

Las Conchas (2011) ~ 156,600 ac.

Thompson Ridge (2013) ~ 24,000 ac.

(not shown)

Page 8: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Watershed Characteristics

Las Conchas Fire 2011

8

Started: 26 June 2011

Contained: 03 August 2011

Burn Area: 156,600 ac.

First Day: 40,000 ac.

First 2 Days: 60,000 ac.

Burn Rate (peak est.): ~ 1ac./second

Watersheds Impacted: 20

Flow into Cochiti Reservoir – USACE

Santa Clara Canyon

Peralta Canyon

Page 9: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Watershed Characteristics

Las Conchas Fire 2011

9

Post-Las Conchas Fire Bland Canyon August 7, 2011

Post-Las Conchas Fire Santa Clara Canyon July 8, 2011

Slope

Post-Las Conchas Fire Santa Clara Canyon

July 14, 2011

Page 10: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 10

Santa Clara Canyon: 49 mi2

Unchanged: 6%

Low: 17%

Moderate: 47%

High: 30%

Burn Severity Breakdown for two select watersheds

Peralta Canyon: 48 mi2

Unchanged: 10%

Low: 33%

Moderate: 42%

High: 15%

Watershed Characteristics

Las Conchas Fire 2011

Page 11: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

• Hydrologic Modeling Context

► HEC-HMS used to model runoff

► Vegetation

► Organic layer

► Hydrophobic soil layers

► Altered runoff characteristics

► Using burn severity mapping:

• Severe – infiltration set to zero

• Moderate – infiltration reduced by 50%

• Low – infiltration reduced by 20%

Watershed Characteristics

Page 12: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

• Hydrologic Modeling Context

► Example of Results

► Santa Clara Canyon (immediately following the fire)

Watershed Characteristics

Rainfall Event, 24-hour Duration

50% Chance 10% Chance 1% Chance

Pre-fire 300 cfs 1,900 cfs 5,000 cfs

Post-fire 2,650 cfs 8,500 cfs 20,300 cfs

Page 13: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Rainfall Event

Santa Clara Canyon August 21, 2011

Largest Cell:

1in/8hr

NEXRAD

Page 14: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Flooding Event

Santa Clara Canyon August 21, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/user/spausace

Page 15: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Pond 1 Pond 2

Pond 3 Pond 4

15

Flooding Event

Santa Clara Canyon August 21, 2011

Page 16: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 16

Post-Fire/Pre-Flood Photo Taken 07 Aug 11

Cochiti Canyon / Dixon Orchard

Page 17: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Largest Cell:

1.6in/8hr

NEXRAD

Rainfall Event

Cochiti Canyon August 21, 2011

Page 18: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Largest Cell:

1.5in/8hr

NEXRAD

Rainfall Event

Cochiti Canyon August 22, 2011

Page 19: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Flooding Event

Cochiti Canyon August 22, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/user/spausace

Page 20: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Rainfall Event

Whitewater Creek

Page 21: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Flooding Event

Whitewater Creek July 2012

Page 22: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 22

Cochiti Canyon

Post-Flood

August 25, 2011

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Page 23: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 23

Peralta Creek, Culvert Crossing, July 21, 2011

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Page 24: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 24

Peralta Creek, Culvert Crossing, August 21, 2011

10’

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Page 25: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 25

Peralta Creek, Culvert Crossing, March 6, 2012

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Page 26: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 26

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Peralta Creek, SP-85 Culvert Crossing, 2013

Page 27: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 27

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Village Reach -

Santa Clara Creek

July 26, 2013

Culvert Crossing Kee St. –

Santa Clara Creek

July 26, 2013

Page 28: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 28

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Pond 3 – Santa Clara Canyon

July 26, 2013

Pond 4 – Santa Clara Canyon

July 26, 2013

Page 29: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 29

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Pond 1 – Santa Clara Canyon – July 26 2013

Page 30: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 30

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Bland Canyon Confluence with the Rio Grande

Pre-fire and Pre-Flooding

Page 31: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 31

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Bland Canyon Confluence with the Rio Grande

October 2011

Page 32: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 32

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Peralta Canyon Confluence with the Rio Grande

Pre-fire and Pre-Flooding

Page 33: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 33

Watershed Response

Geomorphology

Peralta Canyon Confluence with the Rio Grande

October 2011

Page 34: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 34

Dixon Conference Center Pre-Fire

Dixon Conference Center Post-Fire & Post-Flood

Watershed Response

Urban Areas / Values at Risk

Page 35: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG® 35

Watershed Response

Urban Areas / Values at Risk

Cultural Importance – Way of life

NM SJ – www.afterwildfirenm.org

Rainfall Forecasting – Monsoon Season

Early Warning Systems

Evacuation Planning

Floodplain Delineation

Sediment Risks

Decreased channel capacity

Loss of storage in retention ponds

Page 36: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Number One Question: How long?

► Temporal Scale: Temporary vs. Permanent

► Climate Change

► Watershed Resilience

Sediment Issues

► Mass Wasting

► Sediment Movement

► Where do we put it?

Engineering: 50-yr?, 100-yr event?

Data Collection – What do we do with it?

36

Watershed Recovery

Discussion

Page 37: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Acknowledgments

Pueblo of Santa Clara, NM

► Forestry Department

► Office of Emergency Management

Pueblo of Cochiti, NM

US Forest Service – Southwestern Regional Office

► Gila Ranger District

► Other Ranger Districts in NM

US Bureau of Reclamation – ABQ Office

NM Silver Jackets

37

Page 38: Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Post-Fire Flooding and ...gmgarfin/10_Scissions_22Sep2014... · Presentation Overview ABQ District – AOR Major Wildfires – 2011 thru 2014

BUILDING STRONG®

Questions

Stephen K. Scissons, PE, CFM

FPMS / SJ / FRMP Manager

Hydraulic Engineer

USACE - Hydrology and Hydraulics Section

4101 Jefferson Plaza NE

Albuquerque, NM 87109

Direct: 505.342.3328

[email protected]

38