managing in uncertainty
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Audit | Tax | Advisory
Managing in uncertaintyPesh Framjee – Head of Not for Profits Crowe Clark Whitehill
Manage the present
Create the future
Boxes - Boxes - Boxes
Selectively abandon the past
The one constant is change
the status quo is not really an option
Known and unknown
Too much conjecture and crystal ball gazing on all the downside risks.
The reality is that we do not know what the reality will be But it is important to be prepared and think carefully of
the implications on your organisations
Managing Risk and uncertainty
What is the level of exposure to uncertainties that ACORD must understand and effectively manage as it achieves its objectives and creates value
Change issues need to be addressed Remember that risk aversion can lead to missed
opportunitiesYou must consider both opportunities and threats
No action is not really the best option
Managing the understanding
Uncert
ainty
and c
hang
e
Recognised risks and opportunities
Gap
Look beyond the obvious -
consider both direct
and indirect and short and long
term implications
Identify Options Response
Early thinking stage Making strategic choices Taking action
• Monitor and evaluate• Change management • People and culture• Nimble and flexible • Forward thinking • Knowledge not data • Lessons learned
• SWOTs and PESTs• Structures and Models • Scenarios and forecasts• Warning signs / alerts• Identifying anomalies • Analysis and
interpretation
• The right people• Key uncertainties• Direct and indirect• Short and long term • Risk and opportunities• Peers and partners • Competitors
Managing Brexit
Organisational, sector, national and international context
Do you have the right people doing the right thing in the right place at the right time
Strategic thinking
The strategy must be able to deal with uncertainty Predicting the probable is difficult Tactics have to be developed on the premise that several
different outcomes are possible.
the task of setting priorities remain as difficult as ever, matching the demands to satisfy short term needs
against pressure for the resources required to achieve long term solutions.
Scenario planning
Scenarios are not forecasts Avoid being too simplistic Monitor and build in triggers for action Requires many perspectives Engage with a diverse team across functions
The aim of a successful scenario planning process is not whether it accurately predicts the future but rather that it should enable the organisation to learn, adapt and take effective and timely action by preparing it for what might
happen in the future
Some funding / financing trends
• Prefinancing
• Contracts/Payment by results
• Venture philanthropy
• Corporate partnerships
• Impact investing
• Lending
• Social impact bonds
Looking ahead
Even more scrutiny and regulation
Greater demands for transparency and accountability
Consequences of changing funding environment
More strategic alliances and greater collaboration
Improved cost effectiveness and an understanding of cost base
Some questions
How do we remain relevant and coherent Does strategy need to change? Are structures fit for purpose? What is the impact on budgets and forecasts? How will our reserves and cash management be
impacted? How do we stay on track? What about operating frameworks?
What are the skills and competencies that are required
and
How does the board and management need to respond
So what are others doing?
Recognise that status quo is not a valid option
Improve – the management of knowledge, performance and risk
Look for missed opportunities
Broaden the income base
Revisiting governance structures – nimble and agile
Collaborative working, strategic alliances and mergers
Revisiting strategy
Lasting change
Further information Pesh Framjee Head of Non ProfitsCrowe Clark WhitehillSt Bride’s House10 Salisbury SquareLondon EC4Y [email protected]
@crowecw
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