managing risk in the grid today &tomorrow risk in the... · arpa-e perform workshop june 17,...
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ARPA-E PERFORM Workshop
June 17, 2019
Managing Risk in the GridToday &Tomorrow
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Grid operators take many actions over time to
prepare for real time conditions
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$
$
$
Inter Day
No Current MISO Market Prices
Current Availability and Flexibility
Markets and Processes
$
$
Inter Day
$ Current MISO Market Prices
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A series of procedures are also in place to
address emergencies…
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• MaxGen emergencies have occurred in all seasons but have not surpassed step 2
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… as conditions can deviate from the expected
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Gaps in availability & flexibility are expected to
expand due to the combined effect of trends
• Age and retirement of the portfolio’s generating units
• High correlation in timing of planned outage for scheduled resources
• Growth in demand side and other emergency-only capacity as a percent of the overall portfolio
• Growing reliance on intermittent or unscheduled resources, including interchange
• Growth of variable energy resources as a major element of the fleet
Key industry trends
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*Chart reflects ratios of generation.
MISO Energy Mix Transition (GWH) from 2005 to 2018 to 2030
Based on Utility Announcements &
State Integrated Resource Plans*
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Long-termLong-term
Effective market, operations & planning products,
services & tools across time periods are necessary
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15-min to hourly15-min to hourly
5-30 min5-30 min
5-10 min5-10 min
RTRT
Sub-hourly to hourly
Balancing capability
Frequency stabilityVoltage stability
Effective dispatch
Effective reserves & deliverability
Ramping capability (beyond real-time dispatch)
Unit commitment efficiency
Operating day capacity
Computational performance
Effective system planning
Effective forecasts
Effective market signals
FTR funding sufficiency
Decision-making tools
Across Timescales
SAMPLE SET OF NEEDS
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