MANAGING To ACCOMODATE CHANGE:

Climate Change and the National Wildlife

Refuge SystemJ. Michael Scott J. Michael Scott USGS, Idaho USGS, Idaho Coop. UnitCoop. Unit

Brad Griffith Brad Griffith USGS, Alaska USGS, Alaska Coop. UnitCoop. Unit

Bob AdamcikBob Adamcik USFWSUSFWS

Dan AsheDan Ashe USFWSUSFWS

Brian CzechBrian Czech USFWSUSFWS

Rob FischmanRob Fischman University of IndianaUniversity of Indiana

Patrick GonzalesPatrick Gonzales The Nature The Nature ConservancyConservancy

Anna PidgornaAnna Pidgorna Idaho Coop. UnitIdaho Coop. Unit

Joshua LawlerJoshua Lawler University of University of WashingtonWashington

Think about a place you love

• What was it when you first came to

know it?

• What did it mean to you?

• What is it today?

• What are your hopes and dreams for

its future?

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y

1000 1910

Average

2000

-0.25 C

+0.75 C

Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly

Adapted from Hughes 2000, TREE 15:56-61; Mann et al. 1998, GRL

First National Wildlife Refuge

R7

R1

R8R6

R2

R3

R4

R5

Landuse Change

Conservation RiskHigher number (red) indicates more land has been converted rather than protected

Where to go from here?Where to go from here?

Heinz NWRHeinz NWR

Gulf OilGulf OilPhiladelphia, Philadelphia, PAPA

Philadelphia Int’l Philadelphia Int’l AirportAirport

Effects of Global Climate Change

• Climate change likely to surpass habitat loss as the leading threat to biodiversity (Thomas et al. 2004)

• Climate change acts synergistically with all other stressors

                                 

Habitat lossClimate change

Altered Species DistributionsAltered Species Distributions

Edith’s checkerspot butterfly Edith’s checkerspot butterfly shifted range northward shifted range northward (Parmesan 1996, McLaughlin (Parmesan 1996, McLaughlin et al. 1999)et al. 1999)

CA shoreline CA shoreline species species shifting shifting northwardsnorthwards (Barry et al. (Barry et al. 1995) 1995)

90% decline in pop. 90% decline in pop. of Sooty Shearwater of Sooty Shearwater (1987 – 1994) (1987 – 1994) (Veit (Veit et al. 1997)et al. 1997)

Polar bears Polar bears increasingly using increasingly using coastal areas as coastal areas as sea ice melts sea ice melts earlier and freezes earlier and freezes laterlater (Gleason et al. (Gleason et al. 2006, Schliebe et 2006, Schliebe et al. 2006)al. 2006)

UncompahgreUncompahgrefritillary fritillary butterfly on butterfly on brink of brink of extinction extinction ((Britten et al. Britten et al. 1994)1994)

Altered PhenologiesAltered Phenologies

Egg laying date Egg laying date of NA tree of NA tree swallows ~ 9 swallows ~ 9 days earlier days earlier (1959 to 1991) (1959 to 1991) (Dunn & (Dunn & Winkler 1999)Winkler 1999)

Earlier arrival Earlier arrival of migrants of migrants (Root et al. (Root et al. 2004)2004)

Lilac Lilac blooming blooming ~4 days ~4 days earlier earlier (NE)(NE)

89 of 100 89 of 100 flowering flowering plants in DC plants in DC area blooming area blooming 4.5 days earlier 4.5 days earlier in 2000 vs. in 2000 vs. 1970. 1970.

Species Interactions

Trophic cascade• Elk wintering in summer

habitat

Competitive Displacement• Red fox displaces Arctic fox

Herbivory• Mountain pine beetle

Photo by: Cindy Lancaster

HIGHEST RISK SPECIESHighest risk:

– Populations on the edges of species Populations on the edges of species rangesranges• High altitude species High altitude species • High latitude speciesHigh latitude species• Coastal speciesCoastal species

– Threatened and endangered speciesThreatened and endangered species– Narrowly distributed speciesNarrowly distributed species– Poor dispersersPoor dispersers

A System Born in CrisesRefuge System Timeline

1903 1966

1930s

Overharvest of birds and mammals

Over 200 refuges established for migratory birds

Declining waterfowl numbers

Extinction of wildlife

Pelican Island NWR

61 Refuges established for T&E species

Climate change and landuse change

Extinction and Alteration of Ecosystem Services21st century

309 refuges will lose waterfowl species as a

result of range contraction.

229 refuges will gain or retain waterfowl species

as a result of range expansion or stable range. Pidgorna 2007 Dissertation

• Evidence from Pleistocene glaciations indicates that most species responded ecologically by shifting their ranges poleward and upward in elevation rather than evolutionary through local adaptation (e.g. morphological changes)

Parmesan et al. 2000

Protected Areas Insufficient With Global Climate Change

• Too small;• Too fragmented;• Embedded in an inhospitable matrix;

– Anthropogenic, competing land uses

• Expected community shifts– e.g. tundra to northern boreal forest

Barriers to climate change adaptation

• Lack of knowledge of climate change impacts

• Uncertainty• Limited conservation resources (Staff

and money)• Institutional barriers• Political will

How to respond to climate change and associated

complexities?• Ignore• Resist• Reduce non-climate stressors• Triage• Mitigate• Anticipate and adapt

– Manage to accommodate and exploit change

New tools, new ideas and new relationships are needed• Nontraditional partnerships.

• Thinking across boundaries and scales.

• Strategic Habitat Conservation

• Thinking across disciplines.

• The reintegration of conservation areas into the American landscape (Rosenzweig, 2003).

Management opportunities for Individual Refuges

• Increase resilience, reduce stress

Management opportunities for the National Wildlife Refuge System

• Increase representation and redundancy

You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em

Know when to fold ‘em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run.

Opportunities• Educational Centers

– use refuges as educational centers to inform public of climate change effects on wildlife and ecosystem processes

• Cooperative conservation partnerships– Increase influence on matrix lands

• Multiagency management of species e.g. harlequin duck

• Models for energy efficient living

• Researcher/manager workshops

• Inventory current management practices to determine usefulness of response to climate change

What can we do in the next six months?

• Develop strategic vision for America’s conservation landscape

• Identify most vulnerable conservation targets

• Identify critical management-relevant research needs

• Identify most vulnerable protected areas

• Evaluate possible climate scenarios and management responses

Matrix amelioration

New protected areas

Increase connectivity

Removal of other stressors

Habitat modification

Species translocations

Extreme triage decisions

Stream-flow alteration

Lower risk Higher risk

Adapted from Lawler et al. 2009

Management Strategies

Summary

• Climate change is pervasive but will have variable effects.

• Exploit opportunities and prepare for negative effects.

• Management for static conservation targets is impractical.

• Species with limited dispersal abilities are at greatest risk.

• Acknowledge interaction among climate & other stressors.

• Act now to avoid irreversible losses (and save $$ and species).

• Model possible futures at all relevant management scales.

• Initiate comprehensive & multi-scale collaborations.

• Increase the effective conservation footprint of refuges.

The Final ActThe Final Act

Or an ecological setting that allows the play

to continue?

Are we trying to save

the current players in the evolutionary play…

“And it is your obligation to… move forward… in a way that does not denigrate, dilute or diminish in the slightest degree that which came before you, because many thousands of men and woman gave their careers, and some even gave their lives, for what you are working toward– saving dirt.”

--Lynn Greenwalt

America’s Conservation Landscape 2076:

Where, What, Who?

Websites of Interest

• Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org• USA National Phenology Network: www.usanpn.org• SLAMM:

http://www.warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM/index.html

• Conservation Registry: www.conservationregistry.org• Landscope: www.landscope.org• E-Bird Tracker: http://ebird.org• NOAA Climate Timeline Information Tool:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/

Government Documents

• EPA Synthesis Products: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/default.htm

• EPA SAP 4.4: http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap4-4/sap4-4-final-report-all.pdf

• EPA SAP 4.4 Chapter 5: National Wildlife Refuge System: http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap4-4/sap4-4-final-report-Ch5-Refuges.pdf

• IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/• DOI Climate Change Task Force Draft Subcommittee

Reports: http://www.usgs.gov/global_change/doi_taskforce.asp

Thesis/Dissertations

• Emmi Blades, “The National Wildlife Refuge System: Providing a Conservation Advantage to Threatened and Endangered Species in the United States” (Masters Thesis, University of Idaho, 2008)

• Anna Pidgorna, “Representation, Redundancy, and Resilience: Waterfowl and the National Wildlife Refuge System” (Ph.D Dissertation, University of Idaho, 2008)

Peer Reviewed Articles• Czech, B. (2005). "The capacity of the National Wildlife Refuge

System to conserve threatened and endangered animal species in the United States." Conservation Biology 19(4): 1246-1253.

• Gergely, K., J. M. Scott, and D. Goble. 2000. A new direction for the U.S. National Wildlife Refuges: The National Wildlife Refuge Improvement Act of 1997. Natural Areas Journal 20:107–18.

• Griffith, B., J. Scott, et al. (2009). "Climate Change Adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System." Environmental Management.

• Meretsky, V. J., R. L. Fischman, et al. (2006). "New directions in conservation for the National Wildlife Refuge System." BioScience 56(2): 135-143.

Peer Reviewed Articles

• Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe (2003). "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems." Nature 421(6918): 37-42.

• Root, T. L., J. T. Price, et al. (2003). "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants." Nature 421(6918): 57-60.

• Scott, J. Michael et al. “Nature Reserves: Do they capture the full range of America’s biological Diversity?.” Ecological Applications. 11.4 (2001): 999-1007.

• Scott, J. M., T. Loveland, et al. (2004). "National Wildlife Refuge System: ecological context and integrity." Nat. Resources J. 44: 1041-1239.