manchester and london investment trust plc. · source: bloomberg finance l.p. spx - s&p 500 -...

19
Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. Shareholder Meeting 14 th January 2020. The Members’ Room, ICAEW, Chartered Accountants' Hall, Moorgate Place, London, EC2R 6EA. M&L Capital Management Limited. 12a Princes Gate Mews, London, SW7 2PS. Tel +44 (0) 20 7584 5733

Upload: others

Post on 22-May-2020

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Manchester and London Investment Trust plc.

Shareholder Meeting – 14th January 2020.

The Members’ Room, ICAEW, Chartered Accountants' Hall, Moorgate Place,

London, EC2R 6EA.

M&L Capital Management Limited.

12a Princes Gate Mews, London, SW7 2PS.

Tel +44 (0) 20 7584 5733

Page 2: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

MNL LN: The medium term context.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P

2

Performance continues: 3 year Total Return on Share Price is 106.7%!

Page 3: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Keeping ahead of the Famous/Overbought competition: Rebalance your Portfolio!

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P

3

Last 3 years: we Beat all of Scottish Mortgage, FundSmith, Polar Capital Tech, Lindsell Train.

Page 4: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

MNL LN: Increasing Liquidity & Materially Lowering Cost per Share.

Source: Bloomberg L.P

4

Market Capitalisation growth ~3x in 3 years from~£60m to ~£180m.

Page 5: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Dividend History - 5 year trend continues Yield now 2.6% (Source: FT).

Source: MLCM

5

13.75

6.00

13.36

9.00

12.00

14.00

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dividend per Share (p)

Page 6: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

What are the 3 key Growth drivers for MNL LN now?

6

Page 7: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

MNL LN Top Growth Drivers: Software as a Service

Source: Statista

7

Global Software as a Service (SaaS) Market

Page 8: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

MNL LN Top Growth Drivers: Public Cloud.

Source: Statista

8

Microsoft expect Global IT spend to increase from ~5% of GDP to > 10% in the next decade.

Page 9: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

MNL LN Top Growth Drivers: E-Commerce.

Source: eMarketeer

9

Further growth to come from Instagram Shopping, Google Shopping and other new avenues driven by 5G.

Page 10: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

What are the key Risks for MNL LN now?

10

Page 11: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

3 Key Risks: Regulation of Tech. has Expanded from EU to USA to Global.

“Communities have historically been formed and controlled by physical and

geographical parameters in the formation of nations. In the future, communities will

move from being physical to online, resulting in legacy political power systems

becoming increasingly redundant.” (Asimov)11

Page 12: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

3 Key Risks: The New Cold War - the USA China Tech War for Supremacy.

Source: The Economist

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21738883-americas-technological-hegemony-under-threat-china-battle-digital-supremacy

12

Page 13: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

3 Key Risks – Debt & the Yield Curve

Source: Bloomberg L.P

13

Page 14: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Proven as the best Strategy for Returns!

14

Page 15: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

IP & Growth: The best Strategy to beat the market.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS

S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY

NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH & IP

HSI - Hang Seng (proxy for developing markets) - ASIA

CPI - US Consumer Prices Index - CASH at BANK

RTY - Russell 2000 (proxy for small companies) - SMALL CAP

1

5

Page 16: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Key Investment Metric: Similar Valuation Multiples, Faster Growth.

Source: Bloomberg L.P

16

Page 17: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

History shows sectors grow for multi decades: Energy ~100yrs, Staples >100

years.

17

Page 18: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Some predictions for the Next Decade.

1. Over the next year, passive general index Equity market gains will be sparse. 2. Within Two years, the Net Asset Value of MNL LN may have broken above £200m

(This is not a forecast, it is a statement of hope).3. Within Three years, Disney will be acquired by a Tech Gorilla.4. Within Four years, ten year treasury yields will break new lows. (The

Japanification of the developed markets will become common thinking).5. Over the next Five years, UK property prices will have stagnated. (The move to

renting and the recent vast increases in Stamp duty will act as permanent drags on progress).

6. In Six years, the China/USA Trade War will still be an issue. (The consequence will have materially damaged a number of regions such as India and Europe).

7. In Seven years, the Nasdaq 100 index will have doubled from its current level. (This contrasts markedly with Prediction 8 & 1) (Driven by gains in SaaS, 5G, AI and Cloud focused stocks).

8. In Eight years, the FTSE100 will have stagnated having provided a low single digit annualised return at best.

9. In Nine years, the growth of Chinese SaaS will be viewed as one of the best investment opportunities of the last decade.

10. In Ten years, global oil demand will be in precipitous decline.

18

Page 19: Manchester and London Investment Trust plc. · Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. SPX - S&P 500 - TRACKERS S5CONS - S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector - QUALITY NDX - Nasdaq 100 - TECH &

Disclaimer.

19

This document is not a prospectus, but an advertisement and investors should not subscribe for any transferable

securities based on the information contained in this presentation or any other research materials.

This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced,

redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any

purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be sent to or taken into the United States, Canada,

Australia, the Republic of Ireland or Japan, nor may it be distributed to any US person (within the meaning of

regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended).

This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer or invitation or other solicitation or

recommendation to purchase any securities. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the

information, representations or opinions contained in this document, and no liability is accepted for any such

information, representations or opinions.

Without prejudice to the foregoing, this document must not be passed on, directly or indirectly, to any person in

the United Kingdom other than a person who falls within Articles 19 or 49 of the Financial Services and Markets

Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended).

Manchester and London Investment Trust Plc, M&L Capital Management Ltd, nor any other person makes any

guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the

information and opinions contained in this document, nor does Manchester and London Investment Trust Plc,

M&L Capital Management Limited, or any other person accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any

loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection

therewith.

The information contained in this document may amount to price sensitive information for the purposes of the

Criminal Justice Act 1993 or relevant information for the purposes of the Code of Market Conduct and recipients

should consider their positions carefully before undertaking any dealings.