manhattan new development report 2017 - halstead real estate · the overall real estate market in...
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New Development Report
*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
Second Quarter
BROOKLYNMANHATTAN
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,342AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$2,192
AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
622AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
5,936
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
$1,421
$1,413
$2,172
$2,576
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
5.5% QoQ -6% QoQ
2017
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MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
Summary Points
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 2
MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,287 $1,396
Contract Signed $2,025 $1,312
Closed $2,057 $1,319
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,576 $1,413
Contract Signed $2,172 $1,421
Closed $2,192 $1,342
MEDIAN PRICE
Active $3,905,000 $1,797,500
Contract Signed $2,475,000 $1,295,000
Closed $2,900,000 $1,318,021
AVERAGE PRICE
Active $6,682,379 $2,194,886
Contract Signed $3,759,785 $1,690,346
Closed $4,416,978 $1,796,901
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
Total 11,465 1,807
Units Available 5,936 622
% Closed or Contract Signed
48.2% 65.6%
In Brooklyn pricing continued to rise for the second consecutive
quarter. New development entering into contract averaged $1,421 PSF, up 4.4% quarter-over-quarter and 3.8% year-over-year. This is the second quarter in which pricing has eclipsed the $1,400 PSF level, the first being Q3 2016. Avg. PPSF for closed new development in Brooklyn rose 10.4% year-over-year to $1,342.
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, Harlem
experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter Avg. PPSF increase in Manhattan at 9.8% for sold units (contract signed and closed), rising to $1,207. This is a result of sales at 2231 Adam Clayton Powell Boulevard, 306 West 116th, and 285 West 110th Street.
In Manhattan, over 350 units entered into contract in Q2 2017, an increase of 6.1% quarter-over-quarter and a decrease of 22.8% year-over year from just over 450 units in Q2 2016. In Brooklyn,
over 115 units entered into contract in Q2 2017, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter, but increasing 36.4% year-over-year. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within the same quarter.
In Manhattan, average pricing decreased modestly for the second straight quarter. New development units entering into contract fell 2.1% quarter-over-quarter to $2,172 PSF from $2,219
in Q1 2017, but rose 2.0% year-over-year from $2,129 PSF in Q2 2016. Avg. PPSF for closed new development units rose 1.0% quarter-over-quarter to $2,192, and fell 2.1% year-over-year from $2,239 in Q2 2016.
The total number of available new development units increased 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, and 34.6% year-over-year in Manhattan to 5,936. The approval of several new condominium offering plans
including Waterline Square and 217 West 57th helped boost the total. Additionally, large-scale projects such as One Manhattan Square, Gramercy Square, 125 Greenwich, and Hudson Yards have added to the total in recent quarters. Just over 2,600 units are expected to launch sales in 2017, well below a high of nearly 9,200 units in 2006. In Brooklyn, available units decreased 6.5% quarter-over-quarter, and 28% year-over-year to approximately 620, highlighting a lean Brooklyn condominium pipeline.
10.4%
36.4%
$2,172 PSF
$1,207
5,936
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 3
Introduction METHODOLOGY:
§ All data is provided by proprietary
Halstead Property Development
Marketing research.
§ This report tracks new development
projects only, defined as those new
to the market and currently selling
sponsor units. Buildings that have
fully sold out of sponsor units are
not included, even though they may
be newly built. Resale data is not
included in this report.
§ All listings were compiled as of
6/19/17.
§§ Total§Inventory is defined as all units
within new development projects
that are currently listed as Active,
Contract Signed, or Closed, as well
as those units not yet released
to the market. Available§Units is
defined as new development units
that are currently listed as Active
as well as those not yet released
to the market. These numbers
include units released prior to 2017,
provided they are in a project that
has not sold out all sponsor units.
By including currently unreleased
units that are not yet listed as
Active this data provides a unique
and comprehensive analysis of the
current new development market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
MARKET OVERVIEW BY QUARTER ... . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . .7
ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
HPDM is pleased to present our New
Development Report for Q2 2017.
This report focuses exclusively on the
NYC new development condominium
market, and aims to be the only report
of its kind presenting a comprehensive
picture of new development activity.
New development is unique from
the overall real estate market in that
closings often do not occur for 12 to
18 months after a buyer enters into
contract. Therefore, to fully understand
this market it is critical to track active
listings, listings in contract, closed
listings, as well as total inventory. This
report analyzes Q2 2017 as a whole
and is a snapshot of current new
development market conditions.
In Manhattan, pricing for new
development units entering into
contract in Q2 2017 fell 2.1% quarter-
over-quarter to $2,172 PSF from $2,219
in Q1 2017, but rose 2.0% year-over-
year from $2,129 PSF in Q2 2016. Avg.
PPSF for closed new development
units rose 1.0% quarter-over-quarter to
$2,192, and fell 2.1% from $2,239 in Q2
2016. In Brooklyn, new development
entering into contract averaged $1,421
PSF, up 4.4% quarter-over-quarter
and 3.8% year-over-year. Avg. PPSF
for closed new development Brooklyn
rose 10.4% year-over-year to $1,342.
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ONE PARK 320 ADOLPHUS AVENUE, CLIFFSIDE PARK, NEW JERSEY
OneParkCondosNJ.com
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 5
NUMBER OF UNITS
GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS
100
200
300
400
500
600
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$8,000
$7,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
Ground Up vs. Conversions - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.
19
31
75
81
4
67
401
331
$1,
20
7
$2,2
69
$1,
973
$7,2
68
$2,2
94
$2,3
39
$1,
35
6
$1,
816 $
2,7
77
$1,
59
0
$1,
83
1
$2,3
24
$1,
36
3
$1,
40
1
CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED
GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Market OverviewDowntown saw the most development activity in Manhattan in Q2 2017 with more than 400 units either entering into
contract or closing. Next to Billionaire’s Row, Downtown shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,678. The
highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in Q2 2017 occurred Downtown, with an average of $2,442 PSF, up
6.8% year-over-year from $2,286 PSF in Q2 2016.
ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue*Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,3
30
$2,1
19
$6
,26
2
$2,5
04
$2,8
79
$1,
96
3
$1,
75
0
$3
,911
$2,1
43
$2,4
22
$1,
726
$1,
924
$1,
619
$4
,98
2
$1,
90
8
$2,0
17
$2,2
26
$1,
73
0
$1,
223
$2,2
48
$2,0
59
$2,0
98
$1,
179
$2,1
36
$1,
95
7
$1,
90
2
$2,0
92
$1,
75
1
$1,
96
8
$6
,19
1
$6
,36
7
$8
,170
$2,4
24
$2,0
98
$2,3
14
$2,6
78
$2,4
42
$2,2
73
$1,
413
$1,
421
$1,
34
2
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 6
$2,3
25
$1,
24
5
Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$1,
117
$1,
875
$1,
98
7
$5
,48
6
$1,
95
8
$2,3
41
$1,
378
$1,
118
$2,0
90
$1,
729
$6
,18
8
$2,1
97
$2,5
89
$1,
322
$1,
09
9
$1,
96
4
$1,
970
$5
,25
9
$2,0
98
$2,4
29
$1,
311
$1,
20
7
$1,
922
$1,
85
0
$7,2
68
$2,2
52
$2,3
35
$1,
36
2
$2,0
32
$2,2
51
$2,3
03
$2,0
79
Market Overview by Quarter
CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter.
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, Harlem experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter
increase in Average PPSF at 9.8%, rising to $1,207, due to sales at 2231 Adam
Clayton Powell Boulevard, 306 west 116th, and 285 West 110th Street. Midtown
East experienced the second largest quarter-over-quarter increase, rising 7.3% to
$2,252 PSF in Q2 2017, due largely to closings at 252 East 57th Street. Meanwhile,
Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn rose 3.9% quarter-over-quarter.
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 7
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in
Manhattan for Q2 2017 was $3,162 PSF, achieved in the Flatiron district with sales at
45 East 22nd, followed closely by Greenwich Village at $3,121. The highest average
Closed pricing outside of Billionaire’s Row occurred in the West Village at $3,547
PSF due to sales at The Greenwich Lane, followed by Midtown West at $2,544 PSF.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight
UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
DOWNTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Harlem UWS UES MidtownWest
MidtownEast
Chelsea WestChelsea
Hell’sKitchen
GramercyPark
Billionaire’sRow*
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$7,000
$6,000
$8,000
$9,000
$5,000
$1,
73
0
$2,2
48
$2,0
59
$2,0
98
$2,13
6
$1,9
57
$1,
90
2
$2,9
19
$2,7
30
$2,5
44
$6
,19
1
$6
,36
7
$8
,170
$2,4
24
$2,0
98
$2,3
14
$2,5
38
$2,1
62 $3
,29
3
$2,8
44
$2,0
62 $
1,6
67
$1,
654
$1,529
$1,
69
1
$1,
575
$1,
223
$1,
179
$2,0
96
Flatiron GreenwichVillage
SoHo NoHo LES FinancialDistrict
TriBeCa WestVillage
EastVillage
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$2,7
41
$2,8
50
$3
,121
$2,1
18$3
,16
2
$2,5
38
$2,7
01
$2,5
06
$2,2
00 $3
,656
$2,7
75
$3
,54
7 $1,
675
$2,6
28
$2,2
68
$2,2
69
$2,2
73
$2,18
1
$2,1
68
$2,19
7
$2,7
96
$2,9
07
$2,9
10
$2,4
04
$2,176$2,000
$1,000
$3,000
$4,000
$7,000
$6,000
$8,000
$9,000
$5,000
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 8
Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
MANHATTAN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
BROOKLYN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
MANHATTAN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
BROOKLYN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
$4M
$2M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
$16M
$14M
48
367
530
434
43
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$75
5K
$1.
07M
$1.
32M
$1.
33
M
$1.
39
M
$1.
61M
$2.8
M
$2.6
1M
$2.9
5M
$5
.40
M
$5
.08
M
$5
.73
M
$9
.59
M
$11
.01M
$8
.43
M
$14
.58
M
$13
.98
M
$12
.58
M
193
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$6
25
K
$8
92K
$1.
61M
$2.6
5M $
3.7
7M
$6
20
K
$8
90
K
$1.
47M
$2.1
5M
$4
.0M
$8
84
K
$6
05
K $1.
63
M
$2.5
0M
50
100
150
200
250
300
$1M
$2M
$3M
$4M
$5M
$6M
31
176 140 10552
$3
.7M
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
22
7
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
177
29
7
26
3
136
84 10
2
58
19
4
106 13
1
113
38
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
10 16
32
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
66
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
43
59
47
182
37
28
18 6
96
53
40
21 28
120
100
80
60
40
20
8
In Q2 2017 two-bedroom units continued to experience the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with over 230 two-
bedroom units entering into contract or closing. In Brooklyn, one-bedroom units saw the most deal volume with more than
130 units entering into contract or closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two-bedrooms in Manhattan remained flat
quarter-over-quarter at $2.61M, while dropping 1.8% year-over-year from $2.66M in Q2 2016. In Brooklyn, median Contract
Signed pricing for one-bedrooms rose 1.5% year-over-year to $890,000, up from $877,000 in Q2 2016. In Manhattan, two-
bedrooms show the most Active listings at nearly 300, with three-bedrooms close behind at just over 260. Two-bedrooms
also comprise the most Active listings in Brooklyn with 59, while three and one-bedrooms follow closely with 47 and 43
units respectively.
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 9
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
38
%
11.6
%
10.3
% 6.2
%
16.8
%
17.1
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
21.
3%
36
.5%
19.1
%
10.7
%
3.4
%
6.2
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
34
.9%
18%
6.5
%
10.8
%
23
%
6.8
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
42.9
%
33
%
11.0
%7.7
%
3.3
%
2.2
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
7.2
%
15.7
%
10.4
%
10.8
%
27.7
%
28
.2%
3.3
%
1.3
% 12.5
%
14.6
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
40
.4%
27.9
%
38% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan are priced above $5M, well
below a high of 52% in Q1 2015. Meanwhile, 15.4% of Active listings remain priced
above $10M, essentially unchanged year-over-year.
Q2 2017 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN — ACTIVE
Q2 2017 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN — ACTIVE
MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED
BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED
MANHATTAN — CLOSED
In Manhattan, the total percentage of new development deals entering contract
under $5M rose to 77% from 72.4% in Q1 2017. Conversely, the percentage of deals
over $5M fell to 23% from 27.6% quarter-over-quarter.
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 10
THE CLARE 301 EAST 61ST, MIDTOWN EASTTheClareNYC.com
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 11
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
The largest amount of total inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Financial
District, followed closely by the Upper East Side and the Lower East Side. In
Brooklyn, the highest total inventory is found in Williamsburg, Prospect Heights, and
Boerum Hill. The graphs below present total inventory by neighborhood along with
the corresponding percentage of units sold.
MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY
BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FINANCIALDISTRICT
LESWEST EASTVILLAGE VILLAGE
TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN.VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAM.PARK
HELL'SKITCHEN
WESTCHELSEA
CHELSEAMIDTOWNEAST
BN.ROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
UESUWSHARLEM
66%
38%
18% 57%
71%
48%
21%
63%
38%35%
577
34
39
1
1,3
44
152
1,16
3
114
212
46
8
372 45
9
812
PERCENTAGE SOLD
77%
52%60%62%
23%
44%44%67%
21%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
1,12
0 1,276
45
6
21
54
3
33
8
74
6
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PROSPECTHEIGHTS
GREENPOINTDUMBOBOERUM HILLCLINTON HILLCARROLL GARDENS
BROOKLYNHEIGHTS
85%
65%60%
PERCENTAGE SOLD
274
136
29
5PARK SLOPE
50%
92
WILLIAMSBURG
58% 50
9
80
157
89
66%
63%
79%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
100
200
300
500
400
600
32
94%
Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either
Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the
market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently
listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units
released prior to 2017, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor
units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by
including unreleased units.
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue
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HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2017 Second Quarter Report | 12
Further Insight
Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development
activity by volume in Q2 2017, followed closely by Brooklyn. In Manhattan, over
350 units entered into contract in Q2 2017, a decrease of 22.8% year-over year
from just over 450 units in Q2 2016. In Brooklyn, over 115 units entered into
contract in Q2 2017, a 36.4% year-over-year increase from just over 85 units in Q2
2016. These numbers include units that entered into contract and closed within
the same quarter.
Two-bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than those in Manhattan,
while one-bedrooms are becoming more similarly sized in each borough. Median size for
two-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 1171 sq.ft, while the median for two-bedroom units in
Manhattan is 1400 sq. ft. Median size for one-bedroom units in Brooklyn is 712 sq.ft, while
the median for one-bedroom units in Manhattan is 791 sq. ft.
NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE
BKLYN**UPPERMANHATTAN
DOWNTOWNBNROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
MIDTOWNEAST
UWSUES
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
74
63
78 5
6
35
56
3
65 178
28
15 20 47
44
37
2
148
21 13
5
47
16 2
25
3
13
24
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5 BR4 BR3 BR2 BR1 BRSTUDIO
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
56
6 79
1 2,2
23
46
1 712
1,70
2
1,4
00
1,11
71
3,2
76
4,6
08
2,4
24
2,8
99
*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 432 Park Ave, 53 W 53rd, 520 Park Avenue** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,
Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.
MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
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Contact
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Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Vice President of Research and AnalyticsThe information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.
For questions or comments regarding this report please contact [email protected]