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Manifesting the Upside of Down

Noetic Approaches for Citizen Activists to help transform the Perfect Storm

of disruptive surprises heading our way

Houston Community of the Institute of Noetic SciencesOctober 3, 2010

Oliver Markley, PhDwww.OWMarkley.org www.ImaginalVisioning.com

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About “The Upside of Down”

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Visioning the Upside of Down

Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)

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About “Manifesting”

•Bringing about

•Mobilizing

•Attracting

•Co-Creating

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Integrative (“Integral”) Activism

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(2007)(2001)

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Presentation Outline• Main concepts (above)

• Historical context of research about the future

• Type II Wild Cards and Mild Cards

• Current context: Tipping points toward collapse and reformation

• Promising noetic and other approaches

• Cornucopia causality, imaginal visioning / manifestation, and integrative (“integral”) activism

• Experiential demonstrations

• Q&A

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Historical Context

Looking at the Future From the Past

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Early SRI Futures Research

Source: Harman, Markley & Rhyne, SRI (1973)

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Year 2000 Projections

Source: Harman, Markley & Rhyne, SRI (1973)

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Wild CardA possible event

that has a low probability but would have a huge impact

if it occurred

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Type II Wild Card

A wild card that has a high probability (to a “knowledgeable”)

but low credibility (to most others)

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Disruptive Overshooting of Carrying Capacity?

Source: O. Markley, “The Fourth Wave: The Future of SpaceShip Earth” (1995)

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The Ecological Challenge

of Humankind “When one species attains a position of dominance over all the other species in the ecology of its planet, if it is both egocentrically greedy, and has a powerful set of technologies through which to amplify the expression of that greed, then unless that dominant species can find a way to limit or to transform itself and its greed-based systems into something more wholesome, it will foul its planetary nest as surely as the night follows the day ... perhaps even to its own extinction.”

Source: “The Fourth Wave: A Normative Forecast for the Future of Spaceship Earth,” by O.W. Markley, posted online at www.inwardboundvisioning.com/Docs/SpaceShipEarth.htm

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Research on Type II Wild Cards

First major conclusion: If present trends continue...

A Tipping Point Toward Civilizational Collapse

(2008)

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Five “Tectonic” Stressors Toward

Catastrophe

(2006)

• Population stress: overall increase and the difference in rate of increase between rich and poor countries

• Energy stress: increasing scarcity and cost of conventional oil

• Environmental stress from mounting damage to land, sea and air

• Climate stress as the atmosphere responds to global heating

• Economic stress from the widening gap between rich and poor people within countries and between countries

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Envisioning the First to Hit:

Financial

(2006)

After the banking crisis in 2008, a

BBC documentary lays it bare:

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Showing of a four minute set of video clips from The Love of Money, a

three-hour BBC documentary seriesabout the sub-prime meltdown goes here

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Current Context

Looking at the Future From the Present

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More “Bubbles” Currently Threatening Global Financial Meltdown ~ 1-3 Years

• Real estate bubble

• Stock market bubble

• Discretionary spending bubble

• Dollar bubble

• Government debt bubble

• Why would there be a dollar bubble before a gov’t debt bubble? Multi-bubble economy cannot be easily reflated.

Virtuous upward cycle of past few decades replaced by vicious downward spiral resulting from co-lined bubbles:

(2010)

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The “Issues Behind the Issues”

• The old American cultural dynamic: ambition, thrift, self-sacrifice, communitarian problem solving

• The new one: more interest in entertainment and credit-based consumption than in realistically addressing emerging problems that obviously threaten the sustainability of our way of life (“Bread and Circuses”)

• Corporate and financial systems driven to maximize short-term profit for investors

• Government systems increasingly driven by special-interest lobbying, especially by “The Street

• Mass media that filters and shapes the news to suit corporate owners

• Critical mass of systemic problems not being addressed.

(2009)

An audio recording and text transcript of an interview are posted at http://will.illinois.edu/mediamatters/show/sunday-august-30-2009/

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The Upside of Down “Prophecy”

Source: O. Markley, “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)

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An Über Upside of Down Prophecy

(2008)

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Type II Mild CardA Type II wild card that would be

less disruptive and more benign, at least in the long run

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A Critical Mass of “Mild Cards”

(2007)

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Showing of all or part of Paul Hawkens’ six min. 2006 Blessed Unrest

Bioneers speech onYouTube goes here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1fiubmOqH4

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Riane Eisler’s Caring Economics Campaign

Free one hour Webinar training

October 5, 2010

www.partnershipway.org/

(2007)

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Pachamama Alliance Awaken the Dreamer / Change the

Dream Symposia

Houston contact:Donna Mosher281-681-8166

awakenhouston@me.com

(2010)

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Illustrative Writings re: Integral Resilience

(2009) (2010)

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Research to Identify Integral Mild Cards

•Integrate “Higher Self” and “shadow side” realities

•Transcend focus on well-being of individual persons or reference-groups

•Develop creative resiliance

•Be “appropriate” (non-sectarian, affordable, scalable, attractive, demonstrable)

Some criteria for noetic approaches:

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Some Promising Noetic “Best Practices”•Riane Eisler’s Partnership Education

and Caring Economics initiatives

•IONS Worldview Literacy Program

•Awaken the Dreamer/Change the Dream Symposia of the Pachamama Alliance

•Hopefully, my own audible software programs for imaginal visioning, manifestation and integral activism

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Integrative (“Integral”) Activism

+

(2007)(2001)

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Integrative (“Integral”) Activism

Billiard Ball ~ Cornucopia Causality

(~)

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• Holy Spirit (Christian)

• Schechinah (Jewish)

• Alayavijnana (Nondual Buddhism)

• Sub-quantum Akashic / Imaginal Field (esoteric arts & integral science)

Alternative Names for the Source of

Cornucopic Inspiration

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Imaginal Visioning and Manifestation

Billiard Ball Causality Cornucopia Causality

Imagination / Imaginary Intuition / Imaginal

Visualizing Visioning

Expressive Receptive

Active Volition / Willful / Yang Passive Volition / Willing / Yin

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A Cornucopic Meditation Experience

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Experiencing Imaginal

Time Travel

Preprint posted online:http://www.inwardboundvisioning.com/Docs/

MentalTimeTravel.htm

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What are the future implications of ...

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Pachamama Alliance Awaken the Dreamer / Change the

Dream Symposia

Houston contact:Donna Mosher281-681-8166

awakenhouston@me.com

(2010)

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Riane Eisler’s Caring Economics Campaign

Free one hour Webinar training

October 5, 2010

www.partnershipway.org/

(2007)

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Thank you for your kind attention...

Q&A

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Extras

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Other Key Sources

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