manitoba labour market occupational forecasts …...2 manitoba labour market occupational forecasts...

LABOUR MARKET OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTS2019-2025

SUMMARY FINDINGS

The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.

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iManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2019-2025

TABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE .................................................................................................................................................. 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 2

RÉSUMÉ ................................................................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2019 TO 2025 ..... 8

1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 8

1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand ...................................................................................................... 9

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand ........................................................................................... 9

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation ...................................................................................... 10

1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training ......................................................... 16

1.2.4 High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector ............................................................ 17

1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply ....................................................................................................... 20

1.3.1. Labour Force Outlook .................................................................................................. 20

1.3.2 Labour Force Participation ........................................................................................... 21

1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply ............................................................................................ 22

1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply ............................................................................. 23

1.4.1 Labour Shortages by Occupational Groups ................................................................. 24

1.4.2 Occupations with Significant Labour Market Tightness ............................................... 24

CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS ....................................................... 28

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 28

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies ................................................................... 28

2.2.1 International and National Outlook ............................................................................. 28

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook .................................................................................... 29

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba ........................................... 32

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2018 Custom Projection ....................................................................... 32

2.3 International, National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status ................................... 33

2.3.1 U.S. Labour Market ...................................................................................................... 33

2.3.2 National Labour Market ............................................................................................... 34

2.3.3 Manitoba’s Labour Market ........................................................................................... 34

2.4 Population................................................................................................................................ 35

CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL .................................................................................... 38

3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions ............................................................... 38

ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2019-2025

APPENDICES ......................................................................................................................................... 39

Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2018 to 2025 .................................. 40

Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016 level, Supply and Demand 2018 to 2025 ............................ 42

Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2019 to 2025 ....................................... 48

Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC Level, 2019 to 2025 .............................................................................. 54

CHART LIST

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand – 2018 to 2025 ............................................................................. 9

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source – 2019 to 2025 ..................................................................... 10

Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Expansion and Replacement Demand - 2019 to 2025 .......................................................... 12

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level 2019 to 2025 ........................................................... 16

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected - 2018 to 2025 ...................................... 20

Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected - 2018 to 2025 ........ 21

Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change 2019 to 2025 ................................................................... 23

Chart 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) - 2014 to 2018 ....... 35

Chart 9: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected - 2018 to 2025 ................................. 37

Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution Change 2018 to 2025 ................................................................ 37

iiiManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2019-2025

TABLE LIST

Table 1: Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source - 2019 to 2025 .............................................. 13

Table 2: Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source - 2019 to 2025 ............................................... 14

Table 3: Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2019 to 2025 ........................................... 17

Table 4: Top Occupations by Job Openings and Sector, 2019 to 2025 .............................................. 18

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators - 2019 to 2025 ................................................. 23

Table 6: Occupations Experiencing Labour Market Tightness in at Least 3 Years - 2019 to 2025..... 26

Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators - 2019 to 2025 ................................................... 33

Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) - 2014 to 2018........ 35

1Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2019-2025

PrefaceThe Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade. We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results.

We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Finance.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2019 to 2025 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve our understanding of the state of Manitoba’s labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet this demand.

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2018, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba’s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2019 and 2025 provided in this report.

It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba’s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international immigrants, interprovincial migrants and inter-occupation migrants, over the next seven years.

While the results of Manitoba’s custom projection offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions should not be drawn on small samples, including specific occupations and industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution.

Furthermore, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local-level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report.

Due to rounding methods, the components of labour supply and demand presented in the tables of this report may not always add up to their totals.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba’s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible.

2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2019-2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• The Manitoba economy will see a total of

159,200 job openings between 2019 and 2025, with 74.8 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 22,700 total job openings per year.

• Manitoba’s economy will see 158,300 new workers join the labour force between 2019 and 2025, or approximately 22,600 workers a year.

• Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.8 per cent in 2019 to 5.6 per cent by 2021 and remain at this level over the remainder of the forecast period.

• After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.5 per cent annually from 2019 to 2025.

• Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.1 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.2 per cent annually.

Total Labour Demand

• A total of 159,200 job openings will be created between 2019 and 2025.

• Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 40,200 job openings (25.2 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 119,000 job openings (74.8 per cent of the total).

• The occupation group with the most expected job openings is sales and service at 32,200 or 20.2 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook.

• Job openings in business, finance and administration occupations are estimated at

24,800 or 15.6 per cent; and management occupations at 23,900 or 15 per cent.

• Within the sales and service occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: retail salespersons, cleaners, and chefs and cooks.

• For all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period.

• With regard to educational requirements, of the 159,200 forecasted job openings over the seven-year period, approximately 59 per cent are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (e.g., college, university, trade certification). The remaining 41 per cent may not require post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements.

Total Labour Supply

• It is forecasted that there will be an additional 158,300 new workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand.

• The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 94,500 new entrants, 29,900 net in-migrants and 33,900 net other in-mobility workers.

• With 158,300 workers joining the labour force and 119,000 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 39,300 persons over the forecast period.

Gaps in Demand versus Supply

• Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of


the province. In each year from 2019 to 2025, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 10,200 workers.

• Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 500 workers. The unemployment rate is expected remain fairly consistent over the forecast period. Overall, the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline from 5.8 per cent in 2019 to 5.6 per cent in 2021 and remain at that level over the remainder of the forecast period.

Why do the numbers change?

• As the economy changes, the macroeconomic assumptions and data underlying this report are updated regularly with the best data available at the time. For example, economic changes like the oil-price decrease of 2014/15 and ongoing, weaker than expected domestic economic performance, have widespread implications for the labour market in Manitoba, Canada, and around the world.

• SECINC’s latest projections note significant concerns surrounding both the Canadian and world economy, including continued threats on trade, slower U.S. growth and struggling energy provinces in Canada, as well as significant fiscal cut-backs and restraints across Ontario and several other provinces impacting Canadian trade. As a result of these challenges, firms are expected to restrain hiring in 2019 and 2020 in Manitoba, significantly impacting expansion demand when compared to previous forecasts. This trend is expected to continue without significant economic expansion or recovery.

• In this latest iteration, the model has also been updated to use SECINC’s population projections. Previously, projections provided by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics were used. By using population estimates that are based on projected economic demand as an input, the model now compares relative population

growth rates and labour market conditions across the country and adjusts interprovincial population flows based on these conditions. The model assumes that workers will generally move for better employment conditions.

• As a result of increased unemployment in this report, fewer workers are projected to move to the province over this forecast period compared to previous iterations, which will slow job creation and further impact expansion demand.

• The increased unemployment rate is also impacting the participation rate as workers are discouraged from the labour market. This is having the impact of raising retirement rates, which offsets some of the loss in new jobs from expansion.

• Over time, a lower level of employment will result in a lower level of replacement demand, as a lower labour base will mean a constant rate of retirements/deaths will lead to a lower absolute level of retirements/deaths. In addition, changes to the population assumptions have had a small impact on retirement and death levels. The latest population estimates show a population pyramid that is slightly less skewed to the older age groups, this in turn will also impact the retirement and death levels.

• Of note, when summing up and compounding growth rates, small changes can appear more significant, especially if the early years are adjusted.

• Finally every update of the report covers a new seven-year period. As a result, direct comparison of the labour supply and demand forecasts year-over-year is not advised.

• Please see Chapter 3 and Appendix 1 for more information on the methodology and macroeconomic assumptions behind this report.

4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2019 à 2025

RÉSUMÉ• L’économie manitobaine verra la création d’un

total de 159 200 possibilités d’emploi au cours de la période 2019-2025; 74,8 % de celles-ci viseront à pourvoir aux postes vacants libérés en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, le nombre total d’emplois à pourvoir par année sera d’environ 22 700.

• L’économie manitobaine verra 158 300 nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la population active pendant la période 2019-2025, soit environ 22 600 travailleurs par an.

• Le taux de chômage du Manitoba devrait passer de 5,8 % en 2019 à 5,6 % d’ici 2021 et demeurer à ce niveau pendant le reste de la période de prévision.

• Après le rajustement pour l’inflation, l’économie du Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance moyenne de 1,5 % par an durant la période 2019-2025.

• Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenu horaire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,1 % par an en moyenne au cours des sept prochaines années. Cela devrait faire augmenter les revenus personnels au Manitoba de 3,2 % par an en moyenne durant la même période.

Demande totale de main-d’œuvre

• Un total de 159 200 emplois seront ouverts à l’embauche entre 2019 et 2025.

• Selon les prévisions, la demande d’expansion (c’est-à-dire, le besoin de nouveaux postes causé par la croissance économique) devrait ouvrir 40 200 emplois (soit 25,2 % du total). La demande de remplacement (emplois créés en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès) devrait quant à elle créer 119 000 emplois (74,8 % du total).

• Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le plus de créations d’emplois est celui de la

vente et des services avec 32 200 possibilités d’emploi prévues, soit 20,2 % du total des perspectives d’emploi au Manitoba.

• En Affaires, finances et administration, on estime que 24 800 emplois (15,6 %) seront créés, ainsi que 24 000 (15 %) dans le secteur de la gestion.

• Au sein du groupe professionnel de la vente et des services, la plus grande création d’emploi devrait avoir lieu dans les sous-groupes suivants : vendeurs de commerce de détail, nettoyeurs, et chefs et cuisiniers.

• Pour la période envisagée, la demande de remplacement est plus importante que la demande d’expansion dans tous les groupes professionnels.

• En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives au niveau de scolarité, pendant la période de sept années envisagée, environ 59 % des 168 700 offres d’emploi prévues devraient nécessiter un certain niveau de formation et d’études postsecondaires (p. ex., un diplôme collégial ou universitaire ou un certificat professionnel). Les 41 % restants ne nécessiteront peut-être pas d’études ou de formations postsecondaires, mais pourraient demander une formation spécifique à l’emploi ou une formation en cours d’emploi.

Offre totale de main-d’œuvre

• Il devrait y avoir 158 300 travailleurs additionnels au cours de la période envisagée pour contrebalancer la demande totale de main-d’œuvre.

• L’offre supplémentaire de main-d’œuvre devrait se ventiler comme suit : 94 500 personnes faisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, un total net de 29 900 personnes provenant de la migration et un total net de 33 900 personnes provenant de la mobilité de la main-d’œuvre.

5Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2019 à 2025

• Étant donné que 159 200 nouveaux travailleurs se joindront à la population active et que 119 100 postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès, la population active du Manitoba devrait s’accroître de 40 100 travailleurs pendant la période envisagée.

Écarts entre l’offre et la demande

• Dans l’ensemble, le marché du travail du Manitoba devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période envisagée, avec une offre globale de main-d’œuvre en mesure de répondre à la demande du marché du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent de main-d’œuvre pour certaines professions et dans certaines régions de la province. Chaque année entre 2019 et 2025, l’offre de main-d’œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demande de 10 200 travailleurs en moyenne.

• Au cours de la période visée, la croissance de la demande totale de main-d’œuvre dépassera la croissance de l’offre totale de main-d’œuvre de 500 travailleurs. Le taux de chômage devrait demeurer relativement constant tout au long de la période envisagée. Dans l’ensemble, le taux de chômage du Manitoba devrait passer de 5,8 % en 2019 à 5,6 % en 2021 et demeurer à ce niveau pendant le reste de la période de prévision.

Pourquoi les chiffres changent-ils?

• Au fur et à mesure que l’économie évolue, les hypothèses et données macroéconomiques qui sous-tendent le présent rapport sont mises à jour, et ce, régulièrement, en utilisant les meilleurs chiffres existant à chaque moment. Par exemple, les changements économiques tels que la baisse du prix du pétrole en 2014-2015 et la performance économique nationale inférieure aux prévisions ont des répercussions importantes sur le marché du travail au Manitoba, au Canada et dans le monde entier.

• Les dernières projections de SECINC font état d’importantes inquiétudes au sujet de l’économie canadienne et de l’économie mondiale, y compris les menaces continues sur le commerce, le ralentissement de la croissance aux États-Unis et les difficultés des provinces canadiennes productrices d’énergie, ainsi que les compressions et restrictions budgétaires importantes en Ontario et dans plusieurs autres provinces ayant une incidence sur le commerce canadien. En raison de ces difficultés, on s’attend à ce que les entreprises freinent l’embauche en 2019 et 2020 au Manitoba, ce qui aura une incidence importante sur la demande d’expansion par rapport aux prévisions antérieures. Cette tendance devrait se poursuivre sans expansion ou reprise économique importante.

• Dans cette dernière version, le modèle a également été mis à jour pour utiliser les projections démographiques de SECINC, alors que les projections précédentes étaient fournies par le Bureau des statistiques du Manitoba. Ce passage d’un niveau de population imposé à un niveau fondé sur la demande économique entraîne maintenant une comparaison des niveaux relatifs de croissance et des conditions du marché du travail dans l’ensemble du pays et un ajustement des flux de population en fonction de ces conditions, puisque les travailleurs se déplacent généralement vers de meilleures conditions d’emploi. En raison de l’augmentation du taux de chômage, on prévoit que moins de travailleurs déménageront dans la province au cours de la période de prévision, comparativement aux versions précédentes, ce qui ralentira la création d’emplois et aura une incidence sur la demande d’expansion.

• Pour contrer l’incidence sur les départs à la retraite, on observe des changements sur le marché du travail, tant au niveau des taux de chômage que des taux d’activité. L’augmentation du taux de chômage a une incidence sur le taux d’activité, car les travailleurs sont découragés d’être

6 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2019 à 2025

sur le marché du travail. Cela a pour effet d’augmenter le taux de départs à la retraite, ce qui compense en partie la perte de nouveaux emplois provenant de l’expansion.

• Un niveau d’emploi plus faible entraînera une baisse de la demande de remplacement, tandis qu’une base de main-d’œuvre plus faible entraînera un taux constant de départs à la retraite et de décès, se traduisant par un niveau absolu plus faible de départs à la retraite et de décès. De plus, les changements apportés aux hypothèses relatives à la population ont eu une faible incidence sur les niveaux de départs à la retraite et de décès. Les dernières estimations de la population montrent une pyramide des âges légèrement moins asymétrique par rapport aux groupes plus âgés, ce qui, à son tour, aura aussi un impact sur les niveaux de départs à la retraite et de décès.

• Il est à noter que lorsqu’on résume et que l’on compose les taux de croissance, de petits changements peuvent sembler plus importants, surtout si l’on ajuste les premières années.

• Pour finir, chaque mise à jour du rapport couvre une nouvelle période de sept ans. De ce fait, il n’est pas recommandé de comparer directement l’approvisionnement et la demande de main-d’œuvre d’une année à l’autre.

• Veuillez consulter le chapitre 3 et l’annexe 1 pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie et les hypothèses macroéconomiques utilisées dans ce rapport.

7Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2019 à 2025


Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook Summary Findings, 2019 to 2025

1.1 IntroductionIn this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba’s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba’s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands is provided.

The model used to produce Manitoba’s custom workforce outlook starts with the use of macroeconomic models of the province’s economy to create an outlook for Manitoba’s economic performance and then estimates the number and sources of workers required considering the province’s expected future economic and demographic performance. Finally, it explores possible sources for these requirements and the number of workers needed from those sources to meet these future requirements.

The possibility of labour shortages is identified by examining the supply sources to determine if it is possible to achieve the required supply from these sources. For example, the model estimates

the number of young people leaving the education system required to meet future supply needs from this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide education and training to a sufficient number of individuals, there will be a shortage of workers.

An important difference in this approach from that adopted by other models is that the occupational projections contained in this report provide an estimated amount of immigration required to meet labour market needs, rather than setting an assumption for migration that is not directly linked to the expected future performance of the economy. Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level adjusts over time to meet labour requirements.

The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts report.

GlossaryJob openings = expected change in workforce demand over a specific time periodExpansion demand = determined by changes in economic performance that lead to changes in employment and the amount of excess workers required to meet normal turnover in the workforceReplacement demand = job openings created by people retiring from the labour force or dying, influenced by the aging of the populationNew entrants = people between 15 and 30 years old joining the workforce for the first time after completing their education

Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the labour forceNet in-migration = people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a jobNet other mobility = all other sources of labour force change, including people changing occupations (inter-occupational migrants), workers re-entering the labour force and changes in participation ratesNet in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour force


1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand

The outlook for labour demand in the economic model is determined by the expected growth of the economy, along with the impact of changing market conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour relative to that for capital will have an effect on the demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to substitute capital for workers.

The model also considers the impact of migration on economic growth and labour market activity, as well as assumptions about trend growth in productivity that impacts the need for workers.

Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow from 677,300 in 2018 to 717,500 in 2025 – an increase of 40,200 jobs, through economic growth over the forecast period. This means an estimated 5.9 per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of 0.8 per cent each year.

Thousands

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand2018 to 2025

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

677.3682.5

717.5

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand

New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be strongest in 2020, 2023 and 2025, when it is forecasted to be 6,200, 6,200 and 6,100 respectively.

In addition to the expansion demand of 40,200, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand)

will result in an additional 119,000 job openings between 2019 and 2025. In all years of the forecast period, replacement demand is expected to be more than twice as high as the job openings expected due to expansion demand.

Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 159,200 job openings between 2019 and 2025.


Number

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source2019 to 2025

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Deaths Retirements Expansion Demand

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation

The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is sales and service at 32,200 or 20.2 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by business, finance and administration occupations at 24,800 or 15.6 per cent; and management occupations at 23,900 or 15.0 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for over 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with only 2,200 projected job openings over the forecast period.

Analysis of job openings by more detailed three-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes show that within sales and service occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

- cleaners

- retail salespersons

- chefs and cooks


Similarly, within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups:

- administrative and regulatory occupations

- general office workers

- office administrative assistants (general, legal and medical)

Within management occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

- retail and wholesale trade managers

- managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture

- legislators and senior management

Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups.

As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 75 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for approximately 25 per cent of the 159,200 total job openings over the forecast period.

Comparing occupational groups, all net gains in job openings in occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations are the result of replacement demand because expansion demand in this occupational group is negative. Trades occupations (92 per cent), natural and applied sciences (85 per cent) and management occupations (84 per cent) also have relatively high shares of openings due to replacement demand amongst occupational groups, while occupations in sales and service as well as health will see a relatively large share of openings (42 per cent) due to economic growth.


Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2019 and 2025 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2016 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level).

Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings,Expansion and Replacement Demand - 2019 to 2025

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

Sales and service occupations

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

Health occupations

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

Business, finance and administration occupations

Management occupations

Number of Workers

Expansion Demand Replacement Demand


Table 1: Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source - 2019 to 2025

Expansion Replacement Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

Management occupations 3,800 20,100 23,900 84.1%


5,300 19,500 24,800 78.8%


1,100 5,900 6,900 84.6%

Health occupations 6,300 10,300 16,600 62.1%


6,400 14,900 21,300 70.1%


900 2,300 3,300 71.5%

Sales and service occupations 13,400 18,800 32,200 58.4%


1,500 17,900 19,400 02.1%

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

-300 2,600 2,200 115.0%


2,000 6,700 8,700 77.3%

Total 40,200 119,000 159,200 74.8%


Table 2: Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source - 2019 to 2025

Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Senior management occupations 300 2,100 2,400

Specialized middle management occupations 1,400 5,300 6,700

Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services

2,100 5,200 7,400

Middle management occupations in trades, transport, production and utilities

0 7,500 7,500

Professional occupations in business and finance 800 3,100 3,900

Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations

1,500 7,000 8,500

Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations

200 1,600 1,800

Office support occupations 1,800 5,600 7,400

Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

1,000 2,200 3,200

Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences

400 2,700 3,100

Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences

700 3,200 3,900

Professional occupations in nursing 1,700 3,300 5,000

Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 900 1,500 2,500

Technical occupations in health 1,100 2,000 3,200

Assisting occupations in support of health services 2,500 3,400 5,900

Professional occupations in education services 1,300 4,800 6,200

Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services

700 2,700 3,400

Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services

1,800 2,600 4,500

Occupations in front-line public protection services 500 800 1,300

Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations

2,000 4,000 5,900

Continued on next page.


Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Professional occupations in art and culture 400 1,000 1,400

Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

500 1,400 1,900

Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations

700 2,200 2,900

Service supervisors and specialized service occupations

1,900 2,900 4,800

Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade

1,800 3,300 5,100

Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations

3,400 3,600 7,000

Sales support occupations 1,400 1,600 2,900

Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,200 5,200 9,400

Industrial, electrical and construction trades 100 5,400 5,500

Maintenance and equipment operation trades -200 3,900 4,000

other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers

500 1,500 1,900

Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations

1,300 5,900 7,200

Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations

-200 1,100 900

Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production

-200 600 400

Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production

-200 1,300 1,100

Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers

200 600 700

Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators

200 1,400 1,600

Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers

700 2,200 2,900

Assemblers in manufacturing 500 1,800 2,300

Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 600 1,400 2,000

*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training

It is projected that of the 159,200 forecasted job openings, approximately 93,400 positions (59 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (e.g., college, trade certification, university).

These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified as NOC 2016 skill level 0/A, or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2016 skill level B.

The remaining 41 per cent of projected job openings, or 65,900 positions, may not require

post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, make up a smaller portion.

Chart 4 shows the share of forecasted job openings for each skill level for 2019 to 2025.

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level2019 to 2025

49,90031%

44,10028%

16,000 10%

23,900 15%

25,300 16%

Managerial Usually Requiring a University Education

Professional Usually Requiring a University Education

Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training

Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training

Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job Training


Replacement demand is projected to be highest for the subgroup of managerial occupations at NOC Skill Level 0 with 84.1 per cent, while over 30 per cent of elemental and labouring occupation job openings will be due to expansion.

In terms of total openings, the largest numbers of expansion-demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level C and D at 8,900 and 15,100 respectively (refer to Table 3).

Table 3: Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2019 to 2025

NOC Skill Levels Expansion demand

Replacement demand

Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

NOC 0 - Managerial usually requiring a university education

3,800 20,100 23,900 84.1%

NOC A - Professional usually requiring a university education

6,300 19,000 25,300 75.1%

NOC B - Technical and skilled 8,900 35,300 44,100 80.0%

NOC C - Intermediate, clerical and operator

15,100 34,800 49,900 69.7%

NOC D - Elemental and labouring 6,200 9,800 16,000 61.3%

Total 40,200 119,000 159,200 74.8%

1.2.4 High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector

Manitoba’s occupational forecasting model estimates the number and sources of workers required to address the expected future economic and demographic performance of the province through the application of macroeconomic models. The projected demand for workers is also impacted by changing market conditions, for example the cost of labour relative to capital costs.

Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector with the highest number of expected job openings created over the forecast period through both changes in economic performance (expansion demand) and through normal turnover in the workforce through retirements and deaths (replacement demand).

Readers are cautioned against drawing precise conclusions based on individual occupations or industry groups. The projection results should

instead be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts.

While these projections provide an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific occupations that are not captured in the analysis, and economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time.

Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data, particularly for smaller occupation groups.


Table 4: Top Occupations by Job Openings and Sector, 2019 to 2025

Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings

Management

Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,600

Managers in agriculture 3,900

Restaurant and food service managers 1,400

Manufacturing managers 1,000

Facility operation and maintenance managers 800

Business, finance and

administration

General office support workers 2,700

Administrative officers 2,400

Administrative assistants 2,100

Accounting and related clerks 1,700

Financial auditors and accountants 1,500

Natural and applied sciences

and related occupations

Information systems analysts and consultants 800

Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 500

Computer programmers and interactive media developers 500

Computer network technicians 500

User support technicians 400

Health occupations

Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 5,200

Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 4,800

Licensed practical nurses 800

Specialist physicians 500

General practitioners and family physicians 500

Occupations in education,

law and social, community and

government services

Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,100

Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,500

Social and community service workers 2,100

Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 2,000

Early childhood educators and assistants 1,900

Continued on next page.


Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and

sport

Graphic designers and illustrators 400

Musicians and singers 300

Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 300

Authors and writers 200

Library and public archive technicians 200

Sales and service

occupations

Retail salespersons 4,000

Light duty cleaners 3,100

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,800

Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,600

Cooks 2,300

Trades, transport and

equipment operators


Transport truck drivers 4,100

Material handlers 1,400

Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 1,200

Carpenters 900

Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators 900

Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

General farm workers 1,000

Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 800

Fishermen/women 100

Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services 100

Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers 100

Occupations in

manufacturing and utilities

Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing 1,000

Mechanical assemblers and inspectors 600

Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 600

Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers 600

Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing 400


1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply

1.3.1 Labour Force Outlook

The occupational forecasting model uses population estimates and projected age-specific labour force participation rates produced by SECINC to project Manitoba’s labour force. The model estimates Manitoba’s labour force at 688,800 people in 2018.

Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force over the past 10 years and is projected to see continued growth throughout the seven-year projection period.

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow by 39,300 people (5.7 per cent) to 728,000 people by 2025. This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.8 per cent, or an average of 5,600 persons per year.

Within the projection period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow at the lowest rates in 2023 and 2025 (0.9 per cent), while sitting between 0.7 and 0.8 per cent over the remainder of the forecast period.

Thousands

740

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected2018 to 2025

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

688.8 (e)693.4 (f)

728.0 (f)


1.3.2 Labour Force Participation

Manitoba’s overall labour force participation rate is projected to decrease slightly from 67.0 per cent in 2019 to 66.3 per cent in 2025. The slight decline over the forecast period continues a trend started in 2015 and reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age

groups with the highest participation, and the increasing proportion of elders in the labour force population. A recent uptick in the unemployment rate has also contributed to this downwards trend as workers are discouraged from participating in the labour market, however that trend is not expected to continue.

Per cent67.4

67.2

67.0

66.8

66.6

66.4

66.2

66.0

65.8

Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected - 2018 to 2025

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

67.0

66.3


1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 94,500 new entrants, 29,900 net in-migrants and 33,900 net other mobility workers (for a total 158,300 new workers) will be required due to people leaving the labour force (deaths or retirements) and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 158,300 workers joining the labour force and 119,000 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 39,300 persons.

The components of the projected change in Manitoba’s labour force are:

• new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force

• deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force

• net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other mobility), which can add or subtract from the labour force

- net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job.

- net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (e.g., after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (e.g., increased desire for people to enter the labour force).

New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,500 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 17,000 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady supply of net in-migrants over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements.


Number of Workers

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000

Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change2019 to 2025

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

New EntrantsNet In-MigrationNet Other In-Mobility RetirementsDeaths Labour Force Change

1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply

Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets.

Table 5 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2019 and 2025.

In all seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than

labour demand. This gap between the supply of labour and labour demand averages 10,200 workers per year. The expected gap is highest for 2019 and 2025, closing slightly to an average of 10,000 workers over the remainder of the forecast period.

For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 per cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain relatively balanced.

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators - 2019 to 2025

Variable 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Labour force demand 682,500 688,700 693,900 699,700 705,900 711,400 717,500

Labour force supply 693,400 698,600 703,800 709,600 715,900 721,800 728,000

Excess supply -10,900 -9,900 -9,900 -10,000 -10,000 -10,400 -10,400


While it is expected that there will be relatively minor excess supply over the forecast period, any sudden improvements in economic conditions may create difficulty in the economy being able to supply the appropriate level of workers

1.4.1 Labour Shortages by Occupational Groups

Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). For all occupational groups, supply exceeds demand in all years of the projection period. It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupational groups.

The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility).

Between 2019 and 2025, net other mobility is forecasted to add 33,900 persons to Manitoba’s labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand.

If these assumptions are not met, further labour shortages could be expected.

1.4.2 Occupations with Significant Labour Market Tightness

MethodologyThe occupational model used to create Manitoba’s labour market occupational forecasts estimates the supply requirements needed to meet the demand for individual occupations. Accordingly, there are no significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupations in these projections and analysts should examine the estimated requirements to see if it is possible to achieve them.

To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to provide an indication of the “relative” risk, or difficulty across occupations, of obtaining estimated supply requirements.

This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and originates from the fact that the supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality.

This ranking is not intended to indicate that an occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there is a higher risk relative to other occupations.

Four ranking measures are used to determine the supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, one on the demand supply balance and the other is a combined rank that is a weighted average of the other ranks.

The demand measure focuses on “demand pressure” as measured by the number of job openings for an occupation divided by the size of the occupation’s labour force in the previous year, which is similar to the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the demand growth for an occupation is high relative to that of other occupations, it will receive a higher rank as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the workers needed.

The supply measure focuses on migration and is measured as the ratio of required net in-migration and the occupation’s labour force in the previous year. Occupations where supply requirements are largely met through migration may be at risk if these requirements are not accommodated through additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not wish or are not available to move to the province.

The third measure is the difference between an occupation’s actual and normal unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter labour markets and vice-versa.


There are five ranks numbered from 1 to 5 for each measure:

1. High Excess Supply: A situation where there are excess workers available to meet demand. Demand pressure is significantly lower than normal and there shouldn’t be any need to rely on migrants to fill jobs.

2. Slight Excess Supply: A situation where there are slightly more workers available then required to meet demand. Demand pressure is slightly lower than normal and there is limited need to rely on migrants to fill jobs.

3. Balanced Market: A normal market where traditional methods of sourcing workers is required. This can include some reliance on migrants to fill jobs, but this should be at similar levels to the past.

4. Slight Excess Demand: A situation where there is some difficulty in obtaining workers to meet demand. Demand pressure is stronger than usual and there is likely to be a requirement to focus more on migrants to meet supply gaps.

5. High Excess Demand: A situation where there is extreme difficulty in obtaining workers to meet demand. Firms will have to focus hiring efforts on migrant workers to meet supply gaps.

It should be noted that it is important to consider the size of the occupations when using the supply risk results, as occupations with small sizes can produce ranks that may be misleading.

For example, an occupation with a labour force of only 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressure measure. This would certainly put it near the top of occupations for supply risk through the demand pressure rank.

The data provided in this report is accordingly restricted to occupations where the employment is 150.

ResultsLabour market tightness may exist temporarily in an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for example, because of anticipated major projects, and may disappear after completion. In some occupations however, labour market tightness may persist over a longer period of time, potentially due to rising numbers of retirements and deaths as the population ages. In order to identify occupations where more research may be required to address potential long-term supply risks, occupations with a weighted average combined rank of 4 or more in at least two years of the seven-year forecast period are highlighted in Table 6. For these occupations, the weighted average of the demand, supply and unemployment rate gap (demand supply balance) exceeds 3.5. As noted above, only occupations with at least 150 individuals employed in 2018 have been considered for the analysis. These occupations are likely to display a higher degree of demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling job openings over the forecast period compared to other occupations.

In terms of industry sectors, occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport display the highest degree of relative labour market tightness over the forecast period, with 42.4 per cent of occupations showing high demand pressures in at least one year, followed by sales and service occupations (38.9 per cent) and manufacturing and utilities (35.2 per cent).

Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness rankings for each of the seven years of the forecast period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data.


Table 6: Occupations Experiencing Labour Market Tightness in at Least 3 Years - 2019 to 2025

Occupational group Occupation

ManagementTelecommunication carriers managers

Accommodation service managers

Business, finance and

administration

Executive assistants

Property administrators

Purchasing agents and officers

Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers

Medical administrative assistants

Health information management occupations

Mail, postal and related workers

Letter carriers

Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors

Natural and applied sciences


Air traffic controllers and related occupations

Health

Optometrists

Chiropractors

Medical laboratory technologists

Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c.*

Opticians

Practitioners of natural healing

Education, law and social, community and

government services

Secondary school teachers

Firefighters

Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations

Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants


Occupational group Occupation

Occupations in art, culture

recreation and sport

Authors and writers

Journalists

Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations

Painters, sculptors and other visual artists

Library and public archive technicians

Announcers and broadcasters

Artisans and craftspersons

Sales and service

Cleaning supervisors

Chefs

Travel counsellors

Hotel front desk clerks

Outdoor sport and recreational guides

Light duty cleaners

Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations

Trades

Tool and Die Makers

Telecommunications line and cable workers

Telecommunications installation and repair workers

Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators


Fishermen/women

Manufacturing and utilities

Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing

Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing

Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing

Power engineers and power systems operators

Machine operators, mineral and metal processing

Metalworking and forging machine operators

Machining tool operators

Other metal products machine operators

Plastics processing machine operators

Paper converting machine operators

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers

Mechanical assemblers and inspectors



Chapter 2: Economic and Labour Market Outlooks

2.1 IntroductionEconomic and demographic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), domestic consumption, commodity prices, population and immigration serve as inputs for the occupational model that is used to generate custom occupational forecasts for Manitoba. This chapter provides a review of the economic and labour market outlook from internal and external forecasting sources.

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies

2.2.1 International and National Outlook

International(Source: World Economic Outlook report)

After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year according to the World Economic Outlook report. Several factors have contributed to the slowdown, including an increase in trade tensions and tariff hikes between the United States and China, a decline in business confidence, a tightening of financial conditions and higher policy uncertainty across many economies.

Overall, the global slowdown was broad based, notably across advanced economies, except the United States. Conditions have eased in 2019 as U.S. markets became more optimistic about a U.S.-China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall of 2018.

China’s growth declined following tightened regulations on shadow banking and increased trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened. External demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened.

Global growth is now projected to slow from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 per cent in 2019, before

returning to 3.6 per cent in 2020. Emerging markets and developing economies will experience the highest projected increase from 4.4 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 per cent in 2020, while advanced economies will see slight declines from 1.8 per cent in 2019 to 1.7 percent in 2020.

U.S.(Source: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report of April 2019)

According to the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report of April 2019, the outlook for growth in the United States will slow to a sustainable pace. Recent indicators continue to suggest healthy U.S. growth in the first quarter of 2019 despite the U.S. government shutdown. U.S. activity is still supported by solid employment gains in recent months, rising wage growth and elevated consumer and business confidence.

After expanding at a robust pace last year, U.S. economic growth is forecast to slow to around 2.25 per cent in 2019 and further to about 1.75 per cent in 2020 and 2021. The slowdown in growth is largely in response to past increases in interest rates and the waning effects of fiscal stimulus. Core inflation is expected to remain close to two per cent.


U.S. Labour Market (Source: Conference Board Spring Outlook 2019)

Labour markets in the United States are good and wage growth is positive according to the Conference Board Spring Outlook 2019. Inflation is under control, however, the ongoing economic expansion is more tenuous than earlier in the year.

Canada(Source: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Outlook)

The Canadian economy was operating close to potential, then slowed in the fourth quarter of last year. After slow growth at the beginning of 2019, economic growth is expected to pick up. The dampening effects on growth of low oil prices, changes to housing policies and the 2017-18 increases in borrowing rates should dissipate over 2019. Improvements in financial conditions since the beginning of 2019, continuing strong immigration and sustained global expansion are expected to support growth over the projection period. The pace of economic activity is projected to increase from 1.2 per cent in 2019 to about two per cent in 2020 and 2021.

Core measures of inflation have continued to hover near two per cent. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation declined to 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, primarily reflecting past declines in gasoline prices. Through the projection horizon, inflation is expected to remain close to two per cent.

Business investment and exports were lower than anticipated, largely reflecting slower global demand and a greater impact from trade policy issues. Past changes in housing policies together with the 2017-18 increases in borrowing rates appear to be having larger and more prolonged effects on residential investment and components of consumption that are sensitive to changes in interest rates.

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook(Source: Conference Board Manitoba Winter Outlook 2019)

Economic growth in Manitoba is projected to slow over the next few years due to a combination of factors according to the Conference Board Manitoba Winter Outlook 2019. Job losses in utilities, mining, and other sectors of the economy are limiting future consumption growth. In mining, Hudbay’s 777 mine will be reaching the end of its mine life in late 2020, leaving only the Lalor mine in operation. Lalor is scheduled to close in late 2027.

Exports will be the steady driving force of Manitoba’s economy throughout the forecast, thanks in part to solid growth in the agricultural, manufacturing, and service industries. The outlook for Manitoba agriculture is generally bright, thanks to a synergy of various factors. The U.S. economy is in good shape, freer trade with the European Union and the Asia-Pacific economies present ample opportunities for Manitoba to expand its customer base, and the Protein Industries Supercluster and the Canadian Agricultural Partnership programs are generating momentum across the Prairies. However, the poor weather conditions of 2018 could have an impact on the 2019 growing season, and prices for key agricultural commodities have been facing negative pressures in recent months. This could further squeeze farm incomes, which have already taken a hit recently. Conference Board projections indicate a 2.7 per cent rebound in agricultural output in 2019.

The Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasters of May 9, 2019 indicates that Manitoba’s real GDP is expected to be 1.6 per cent in 2019, tied with Canada. Manitoba ranks sixth among the provinces. In 2020, Manitoba’s real GDP is expected to decrease to 1.5 per cent compared to Canada’s increase to 1.8 per cent. For 2020, Manitoba ranks fifth, tied with Quebec.


Key Industries(Source: Manitoba Budget 2019)

AgricultureAgriculture continues to be an important contributor to the Manitoba economy. Crop and livestock agri-businesses produce a variety of commodities and processed products, and have strong linkages to food manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, retail and wholesale trade, as well as finance, insurance and real estate. Manitoba is also a global leader in the agricultural technology sector with companies, such as Farmers Edge Inc. — a global, precision-agriculture company — calling Winnipeg home.

With the close proximity to raw materials, skilled workers and a competitive cost environment, food processing in Manitoba continues to grow, with major new investments in dairy, meat, potato and pea processing facilities across Manitoba. Increased domestic processing of Canadian grown agricultural commodities is expected to boost employment in the province and increase the value of exports.

Agricultural commodity prices are mostly determined in the broader external market, with crop prices influenced by global supply and demand conditions, and livestock prices reacting to Canadian and U.S. market conditions. Agricultural commodity prices were mostly lower in 2018 compared to 2017. However, due partially to timing and deferral of sales payments, cash receipts from crop production increased by 3.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2018.

ManufacturingThe manufacturing sector is the largest industrial sector of the Manitoba economy. Manufacturing sales continued to increase at a robust pace in 2018, as national and international demand improved for products manufactured in Manitoba (0.3 per cent). Some of the larger projects currently underway and those expected to commence in 2019 include an expansion of hog processing capacity at HyLife, enhancement of the food processing capacity and output for frozen french fries and formed potatoes at Simplot, upgrading processing and handling

equipment at McCain Foods potato processing plants, Maple Leaf Foods expansion to increase bacon production, and Roquette’s construction of the world’s largest pea processing facility.

The largest manufacturing sub-industry in Manitoba is food manufacturing, accounting for 26 per cent of sales in 2018. Over the past decade, this industry has significantly grown and diversified, producing new products or expanding product lines already offered.

Transportation equipment is the province’s second-largest manufacturing industry, accounting for 17 per cent of sales in 2018. The bulk of sales from transportation equipment comes from aerospace products, repairs and heavy vehicle production. Manitoba has the third-largest aerospace industry in Canada. Three multinational firms lead the aerospace industry: Boeing Canada Technology, StandardAero, and Magellan Aerospace, as well as a number of other established regional and national firms. The motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing sector specializes in the production of urban and inter-city buses, fire trucks, motor homes, recreational vehicles and trailers.

Machinery manufacturing, the province’s third-largest manufacturing industry, accounted for 11 per cent of sales in 2017. Manitoba’s machinery manufacturing is largely concentrated in the production of agricultural machinery and equipment. Reflecting weaker international demand in light of slowing global growth, the share of domestic and interprovincial sales of manufactured products have increased while international sales have declined. The province’s key international markets are the U.S., China and Mexico, while the key provincial markets are Ontario, Alberta and Quebec.

Minerals and Petroleum DevelopmentsAccounting for 3.3 per cent of the provincial economy, the mineral and petroleum sector is the second-largest primary resource sector in Manitoba. It employed 5,700 workers in 2018, while mineral exploration expenditures are estimated to have increased by 42 per cent to $54.7 million.


Similar to the situation in other provinces, Manitoba’s resource extraction industry is experiencing increased market volatility due to unprecedented swings in commodity prices, exchange rates and demand conditions. This creates a challenging environment in which to proceed with cost-efficient production and investments in new, large-scale projects.

In Manitoba, the depletion of the most profitable known reserves has led to a decline in the number of major mines currently producing in the province, from six in 2017 to three in 2018: Lalor Mine and 777 Mine operated by Hudbay Minerals; and Thompson Mine (T1, T3, and 1-D) operated by Vale Canada Limited.

In October 2017, citing poor market conditions, Vale Canada Limited placed the Birchtree Mine in Thompson under care and maintenance, resulting in a reduction of 6,000 tonnes per year in nickel production. In July 2018, Vale Canada Limited also shut down its smelting and refining operations in Thompson. Also in July 2018, Hudbay’s Reed Mine, located between Flin Flon and Snow Lake, permanently closed.

However, a number of potential developments could mitigate the above-mentioned negatives. Alamos Gold completed its feasibility study of the Lynn Lake Project. Based on that study, the mine is expected to produce, on average, 170,000 ounces of gold in the first six years of operation. Minnova Corp. also announced a positive feasibility study considering the re-start of the PL Gold mine (formerly Puffy Lake mine). Additionally, Canadian Premium Sand Inc. received an Environmental Act Licence in May 2019 for a large silica sand extraction project. The company anticipates it will begin operations before the end of 2019. According to estimates, 45 million tonnes of high quality silica sand could be extracted over the project’s anticipated life span of 50 years. The estimated investment for the project is over $150 million. Depending on prices for silica sand and the amount of sand mined, the project could generate between $235 million and $940 million per year.

Sector Employment(Source: Manitoba Budget 2019)

Continued strength in population growth and industrial weekly wages is supporting a robust pace in residential and non-residential construction in buildings. However, with stringent federal mortgage rules still in place and more interest rate hikes possible in 2019, risks are elevated for continued strength in residential capital expenditures, which are currently at record levels.

On the upside, Manitoba has recently added a significant level of productive capacity and has a number of large-scale commercial, industrial and residential projects underway. As construction spending ends and value-added production begins in earnest, manufacturing, wholesale, retail, accommodation and rental income will broaden and support total expenditures in the economy.

Budget 2019 announced a decrease in Manitoba’s retail sales tax rate from eight per cent to seven per cent starting on July 1, 2019. This measure, combined with previous measures to index personal income tax brackets and the basic personal amount, will further improve Manitoba’s tax competitiveness.

The reduction to the retail sales tax rate is expected to save over $300 million annually to households, businesses and local governments among others. Households will gain the largest share from the tax reduction, followed by businesses and the government sector.Households will benefit on everyday retail purchases, with larger savings on higher-priced items such as vehicles and household renovations. For businesses, the biggest saving will be on purchases of machinery and equipment, and on building materials in manufacturing and construction industries.

Economic impact analysis shows that, based on the assumption that half of the savings are re-spent or invested back into the economy, total expenditures in the economy will grow by over $90 million (nominal GDP).The increased


economic activity will add an estimated 950 person-years of employment to the Manitoba economy. In other words, the increased economic activity will generate enough hours of work for 950 individuals working full-time for a whole year. Correspondingly, an additional $47 million would be generated in employment income annually, through wages and salaries.

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba

Construction(Source: Buildforce Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for 2019-2028)

According to Buildforce Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for 2019-2028, Manitoba’s construction sector will experience a moderate slow-down due to reductions in new homebuilding in 2019-2020 and moderate demand.

Total labour requirements are driven by an increase in concurrent major projects, including Manitoba Hydro’s Keeyask hydroelectric dam, Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement, several commercial office and food processing facilities, and major transportation and other infrastructure projects. The expected wind-down and completion of major projects between 2020 and 2021 is expected to release more than 2,300 workers. During the initial years of the scenario, reduced demand for construction of Industrial Commercial and Institutional (ICI) buildings result in a loss of 3,000 non-residential construction jobs in total — a 13 per cent decline over the two-year period.

The remainder of the forecast period will see some moderate growth driven by rising work in new housing and renovations fuelled by stable population growth, and further expansion of industrial building construction alongside steady levels of institutional building construction. The addition of an estimated 1,600 jobs between 2022 and 2028 leaves overall construction

employment lower by close to 1,900 jobs by 2028 – or down five per cent from the 2018 starting point. The non-residential sector accounts for 60 per cent of construction employment in Manitoba, and engineering construction remains the dominant driver of labour demands.

Engineering construction’s share of total employment requirements falls from a high of 28 per cent in 2018, to a more modest 21 per cent in 2028 as current major projects are completed. The shift in demands toward ICI building construction and maintenance work will have important implications for the mix of required trades and occupations, skills and qualifications in Manitoba’s construction labour force.

InvestmentTotal business investment is set to increase by a still solid 5.9 per cent this year, thanks to continued spending on diverse projects, including in food processing, energy and commercial and residential construction. However, investment will fall sharply once these projects are completed over 2020 and 2021, dragging down GDP growth.

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2019 Custom Projection

The performance of the economy, as measured by various economic and demographic indicators, is the main driver of the SECINC occupation model’s workforce outlook. Economic growth drives labour demand, while population and age distribution have influence over labour supply.

Projected growth rates from 2019 to 2025for some of the key indicators utilized to produce Manitoba’s custom projection are shown in Table 7. Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS), Manitoba Finance, Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Hydro assisted with the verification of macroeconomic data utilized by the SECINC model to produce this labour market projection.


Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators - 2019 to 2025

Per cent Change (%)

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Real GDP ($ millions) 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4

Hourly labour income 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1

Real hourly labour productivity 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6

Retail sales 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8

Personal income 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6

2.3 International, National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status

2.3.1 U.S. Labour Market (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Employment in the United States is projected to increase by 11.5 million to 167.6 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections: 2016-2026. Health care industries are expected to account for a large share of new jobs projected through 2026, as the aging population continues to drive demand for health care services.

Real GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of two per cent from 2016 to 2026. Projected GDP growth is faster than the annual rate of 1.4 per cent from 2006 to 2016. Increased labour productivity will contribute to faster GDP growth.

The aging population is projected to result in a decline in the overall labour force participation rate over the 2016 to 2026 period. The civilian labour force is projected to reach 169.7 million in 2026, growing at an annual rate of 0.6 per cent. As the labour force continues to get older, the overall labour force participation rate is projected to decrease to 61.0 per cent in 2026. This rate is down from 62.8 per cent in 2016 and from the peak of 67.1 per cent in 2000, prior to the 2007 to 2009 recession.

As the baby boom generation ages, the share of workers age 55 and older — a cohort with a low labour force participation rate — is projected to grow to 24.8 per cent in 2026. This share is up from 22.4 per cent in 2016 and 16.8 per cent in 2006. Total employment is projected to grow by 11.5 million jobs over the 2016 to 26 period, reaching 167.6 million jobs in 2026. About nine out of 10 new jobs are projected to be added in the service-providing sector from 2016 to 2026, resulting in more than 10.5 million new jobs, or 0.8 per cent annual growth. Employment in the health care and social assistance sector is projected to add nearly 4.0 million jobs by 2026, about one-third of all new jobs. The share of health care and social assistance employment is projected to increase from 12.2 per cent in 2016 to 13.8 per cent in 2026, becoming the largest major sector in 2026.

The goods-producing sector is expected to increase by 219,000 jobs, growing at a rate of 0.1 per cent per year over the projection period. Employment in construction and mining shows positive growth of 864,700 and 90,800 respectively. Manufacturing employment will decrease by 736,400 over the period, with fewer losses than the previous decade of 1,807,700.


2.3.2 National Labour Market(Source: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report)

The Canadian economy was operating near capacity for most of 2017 and 2018. However, because of recent slow economic growth, the Bank of Canada estimates that the output gap, which measures the difference between the economy’s actual output and the level of production it can achieve with existing labour, capital, and technology without putting sustained upward pressure on inflation, was between -1.25 and -0.25 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. The degree of slack is not generalized across the entire economy since the slowing of activity is more concentrated in some industries and regions than in others.

In the spring Business Outlook Survey, fewer firms reported capacity pressures as more intense compared with a year ago, in some cases because they have recently expanded production capacity or hired additional workers. The view that labour shortages have intensified has also become less widespread.

Overall, the labour market continues to be healthy. The number of job vacancies was near its record high in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the pace of hiring has been strong, particularly in the services industry and outside oil intensive regions. Regional differences are also evident in wage growth, which was about 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 in oil-intensive regions and 2.6 per cent in other provinces.

Nationally, wages increased by 2.1 per cent. Further evidence that the labour market is healthy shows up in wage increases for job changers. It is generally easier for workers to find jobs that better match their skill sets when demand for labour is strong and broad-based. When workers move to jobs that make better use of their skills, wage increases tend to reflect higher productivity and thus may not be inflationary. Empirical evidence indicates job changers have been receiving wage increases of about 12 per cent, considerably higher than the average increase.

Job gains are exceptional according to the Conference Board Spring Outlook 2019, with 122,600 new jobs created in the first two months of 2019, most of them full-time. Further, wage growth picked up substantially over the same period. Strong job gains, coupled with a rise in wage growth will push disposable income up by 5.4 per cent in the first quarter. With labour markets expected to remain tight (the unemployment rate is near its record low and the job vacancy rate continues to rise), and with consumer confidence recovering, consumer spending is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent next year.

2.3.3 Manitoba’s Labour Market(Source: Manitoba Budget 2019)

Manitoba continues to have a very stable labour market. Since 1976 (start date of current Labour Force Survey data), Manitoba’s labour market has demonstrated the lowest level of volatility in year-over-year growth rates in Canada. Furthermore, the market continues to reflect a balance in long-term supply and demand conditions, with labour force and employment levels advancing at a steady one per cent annual pace, while maintaining a relatively low unemployment rate and a high labour force participation rate.

Manitoba’s employment level accelerated in the first three quarters of 2017, but has since increased at a slower pace. On an annual basis, the economy generated 10,500 jobs in 2017 followed by 3,600 jobs in 2018.

Private sector employment increased by 1,900 jobs in 2018, while jobs in the public sector increased by 1,700. Overall, full-time employment rose by 600 jobs while part-time employment increased by 3,000 jobs.

The positive momentum in job creation has facilitated an increase in new entrants joining the labour market. In 2018, the labour force increased by 1.2 per cent, the third highest among the provinces. However, with the labour force growing faster than employment, the unemployment rate rose to 6.0 per cent in 2018, up from 5.4 pe cent in 2017.


Over the past two years, the trend in Manitoba’s labour market indicates that the private sector is gaining a larger share of overall employment. The private sector share increased to 75 per cent in 2018, up from 74.1 per cent in 2015. Within the private sector, there was also a sharp rotation into self-employment, which increased by 1.7 per cent in 2017 and 5.0 per cent in 2018. The growth in self-employment in 2018 was the second highest among the provinces. Similarly, self-employment as a share of private sector employment rose to 19 per cent in 2018, up from 18 per cent in 2017.

The Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts determines that Manitoba’s employment in 2019 is forecasted to grow by 1.2 per cent, ranking Manitoba fourth and tied with Newfoundland and Labrador. The unemployment rate is forecasted at 5.8 per cent, ranking fourth among the provinces, and tied with Saskatchewan. In 2020, employment is forecasted to grow by 0.7 per cent, ranking Manitoba fourth again. The unemployment rate remains unchanged, tying with Saskatchewan for third lowest rate.

Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) - 2014 to 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Labour force (000s) 662,100 674,100 674,900 680,900 688,800

Employment (000s) 626,500 636,200 633,600 644,100 647,700

Participation rate (%) 67.8 68.3 67.6 67.2 67.2

Unemployment rate (%) 5.4 5.6 6.1 5.4 6.0

2.4 Population(Source: Manitoba Budget 2019)

Population growth continued at a solid pace in 2018 at 1.25 per cent. Over the past nine years, Manitoba’s annual population growth has been above 1.0 per cent, adding on average almost 16,000 individuals to the province annually, thereby contributing to the support of the labour market and domestic demand. The boost in population is particularly timely, since the aging demographic will increase the number of older workers leaving the labour market. This is also encouraging a record-setting pace of growth in private sector commercial and industrial capital initiatives.

Manitoba’s population was estimated at 1,352,154 persons in 2018, the fifth largest in Canada. The annual increase was 16,758 persons or 1.3 per cent, and follows the record annual increases of 21,257 persons or 1.6 per cent in 2017, and 21,912 persons or 1.7 per cent in 2016.

In the past decade, Manitoba’s population increased by 1.2 per cent annually, well above the 0.5 per cent average annual growth in the previous decade. Growth in 2016 and 2017 was exceptional, lifting the three-year average to 1.5 per cent, the second highest among provinces, following Prince Edward Island.

The majority of growth is due to a concerted effort by the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) to attract and retain job-ready skilled workers and business investors to Manitoba. The MPNP provides a pathway for permanent residency and has accepted over 130,000 new immigrants to Manitoba. Over 90 per cent of international economic migrants to Manitoba arrive through this program and the nominee retention rate is estimated at almost 90 per cent.

To achieve better and quicker outcomes, the MPNP was renewed to streamline the application process. Priority was elevated for business


investors who start a business within the first 12 months of their arrival in Manitoba, and skilled workers who have close family connections in the province and spouses who can find in-demand jobs quickly.

In November 2018, two new nomination pathways were introduced for international students. The International Student Entrepreneur Pathway (graduates that establish and operate a business in Manitoba) and the Graduate Internship Pathway (international students who complete a Master’s or PhD degree program at a Manitoba university).

In addition to immigration, population growth has been increasingly supported by the rate of natural increase. Given that a younger demographic is arriving through immigration and the echo boom cohort is maturing into prime child rearing age, the number of births has increased to noteworthy levels. The number of births has increased from

a low of 13,746 births in 2001/02 to over 17,000 births per year since 2016/17. As the proportion of younger people increase, the median age has declined, making Manitoba’s overall population age younger. The median population age peaked at 37.8 years from 2008 to 2013, but has since declined to 37.3 years in 2018, the second lowest among provinces and below the Canadian average of 40.8 years.

Manitoba also has a proportionally higher share of youth when compared to other provinces. As a result, the labour supply is expected to continue to increase over the medium term.

According to SECINC’s population projections, it is anticipated that Manitoba will have a population gain of 82,800 residents between 2019 and 2025, or 11,800 per year. A total net inflow of 54,500 migrants from both international and interprovincial sources is projected to make up 65.8 per cent of the growth.

Thousands

1,460

1,440

1,420

1,400

1,380

1,360

1,340

1,320

1,300

Chart 8: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected2018 to 2025

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

1352.2 (e)

1367.1 (p)

1381.6

1395.91409.9

1423.7

1436.91449.9


It is projected that by 2025, most age groups will record increases in their population levels relative to the 2018 estimates. As illustrated by Chart 10, the 65-plus age group is expected to show the largest gain, increasing by 47,000 (22.5 per cent).

The 35 to 44 and 0 to 14 age groups are also projected to have strong gains, with increases of 17.4 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively. The 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 age groups are anticipated to record slight population declines over the seven-year projection period.

Thousands120

80

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er 1

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5-9

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19

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Chart 9: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected2018 to 2025

2025 2018

Age group

Thousands

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution Change2018 to 2025

Age0 to 14

Age15 to 24

Age25 to 34

Age35 to 44

Age45 to 54

Age55 to 64

Age65 +

+21

-2

+31

-5

+47

+2+3


Chapter 3: SECINC Forecasting Model3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on SECINC’s occupational forecasting model, which includes macroeconomic, industrial and occupational models. These models are produced externally by senior economists at SECINC using international best practices in economic and labour market forecasting.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates certain major projects to capture current and upcoming economic activity and the subsequent labour market needs driven by these industry initiatives. For Manitoba’s custom projection, SECINC’s model used qualitative data collection, analysis and reporting by Manitoba government departments and Manitoba sector councils for proposed industry initiatives and current economic development activities.

Key economic indicators, including GDP, investment, consumer price index, income, employment, labour productivity, capital stock and housing starts are incorporated into the model. For Manitoba’s custom projection, GDP and employment growth assumptions supplied by SECINC are aligned, where feasible, with Manitoba Finance’s averaging of key private sector economic forecasts. Manitoba’s custom projection incorporates over 1,500 variables.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates 70 individual industry clusters. Economic and industry growth drive employment demand for each unique industry. Occupational employment demand is based on expected employment in the industries with these occupations.

Occupational labour supply and its components of change are primarily driven by demographic shifts and economic performance. For Manitoba’s custom projection, labour force participation rates were forecasted based on assumptions about Manitoba’s labour force supply, including detailed demographic modelling by age and sex.

The SECINC occupational model is based on the assumption that, in the long run, the labour force for an occupation will be determined by the demand for that occupation. In the short run, there will be deviations between the growth rate in supply and demand because of mobility restrictions, such as the time required to attract workers to the occupation either from other occupations or through the education and training system. Deviations also occur when attempting to get workers to move from a different geographic area.

A further restriction placed on the adjustment of the labour force for an occupation is that employers requiring the occupation must compete with each other and with other occupations to gain a share of the economy’s overall labour force. The latter variable is produced in the macroeconomic models. The ability to compete for additional supply of an occupation is driven by the occupation’s share of overall labour requirements in the economy. For a given occupation, the higher its requirements compared to other occupations, the larger its share of the economy’s overall labour force.

For further information about the methodology, please contact the Economic Analysis and Research Unit at [email protected] or 204-807-3783.


APPENDICES

• Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2018 to 2025

• Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016 level, Supply and Demand 2018 to 2025

• Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2019 to 2025

• Appendix 4: Job Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC Level, 2019 to 2025


Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2018 to 2025

2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2019 to2025

Per cent change

Demographics

Population level 1,352,200 1,367,100 1,395,900 1,423,700 1,449,900 82,800 6.0%

Natural increase (births-deaths)

6,400 6,400 6,500 6,300 6,000 -400 -6.3%

Total net in-migration 10,500 8,700 8,000 7,500 7,200 -1,500 -17.2%

Immigration 14,200 15,500 15,500 14,800 14,800 -700 -4.5%

Net interprovincial migration

-9,100 -8,300 -6,600 -6,200 -6,600 1,700 20.5%

The labour market

Source population 1,024,900 1,035,200 1,055,400 1,076,600 1,097,500 62,300 6.0%

Labour force 688,800 693,300 703,600 715,600 727,200 33,900 4.9%

Employment 647,600 652,700 663,700 675,600 686,700 34,000 5.2%

Unemployment 41,100 40,500 39,800 40,000 40,400 -100 -0.2%

Unemployment rate (%)

6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 -0.4

Participation rate (%) 67.2 67.0 66.7 66.5 66.3 -0.7

Worker demand versus supply

Demand for workers 677,400 682,500 693,900 705,900 717,500 35,100 5.1%

Supply of workers 688,800 693,400 703,800 715,900 728,000 34,600 5.0%

Demand imbalance -11,400 -10,900 -9,900 -10,000 -10,400 500 -4.6%

Table continued on next page.


2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2019 to2025

Per cent change

Source of job openings

Expansion demand 5,100 5,200 6,200 6,100 1,000 19.5%

Replacement demand 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 - -

Retirements 14,000 14,100 14,100 14,200 200 1.4%

Deaths 3,000 2,900 2,900 2,900 -100 -3.4%

Sources of supply change

New entrants 13,400 13,300 13,600 13,900 500 3.0%

Net in-mobility 8,200 8,900 9,700 9,300 1,100 13.4%

Net in-migration 4,800 4,400 4,100 3,900 -900 -18.7%

Net other mobility 3,400 4,600 5,500 5,400 2,000 59.0%


Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016 level, Supply and Demand 2018 to 2025

NOC 0-9: ALL occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 94,500

Net in-mobility 63,800

Total demand change 159,200

Expansion demand 40,200

Replacement Demand 119,000

NOC 0: Management occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 0




Replacement demand 20,100


NOC 1: Business, finance and administration occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 13,500





NOC 2: Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 6,100

Net in-mobility 700





NOC 3: Health occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 10,400





NOC 4: Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 14,600






NOC 5: Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 2,400

Net in-mobility 900


Expansion demand 900


NOC 6: Sales and service occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 24,300






NOC 7: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 16,100





NOC 8: Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 2,400

Net in-mobility -100


Expansion demand -300



NOC 9: Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



Total 2019 to 2025

New entrants 4,600






Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2019 to 2025

Three-digit NOC codes and titles Job openings

NOC 0: Management occupations#062 Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,600

#082 Managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 4,000

#001 Legislators and senior management 2,400

#063 Managers in food service and accommodation 2,000

#071 Managers in construction and facility operation and maintenance 1,900

#011 Administrative services managers 1,700

#012 Managers in financial and business services 1,400

#042 Managers in education and social and community services 1,400

#091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities 1,200

#031 Managers in health care 700

#021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems 600

#060 Corporate sales managers 600

#073 Managers in transportation 400

#051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 300

#013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 200

#041 Managers in public administration 200

#043 Managers in public protection services 200

#065 Managers in customer and personal services, *n.e.c. 200

#081 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 0

NOC 1: Business, finance and administration

#122 Administrative and regulatory occupations 4,300

#141 General office workers 3,900

#124 Office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical 3,000

#111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 2,600

#143 Financial, insurance and related administrative support workers 2,500

#152 Supply chain logistics, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 2,200

#131 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 1,800

#112 Human resources and business service professionals 1,200

#121 Administrative services supervisors 1,000

#151 Mail and message distribution occupations 1,000

#145 Library, correspondence and other clerks 600

#142 Office equipment operators 500

#125 Court reporters, transcriptionists, records management technicians and statistical officers

200

Table continued on next page.



NOC 2: Natural and applied sciences and related occupations#217 Computer and information systems professionals 1,600

#224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering 1,000

#228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 1,000

#213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers 800

#223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering 500

#226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers 400

#214 Other engineers 300

#222 Technical occupations in life sciences 300

#225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics and meteorology

300

#227 Transportation officers and controllers 300

#212 Life science professionals 200

#221 Technical occupations in physical sciences 200

#211 Physical science professionals 100

#215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors 100

#216 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 0

NOC 3: Health occupations

#341 Assisting occupations in support of health services 5,900

#301 Professional occupations in nursing 5,000

#323 Other technical occupations in health care 1,500

#321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 1,400

#311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 1,200

#314 Therapy and assessment professionals 500

#313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 400

#312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals 300

#322 Technical occupations in dental health care 300



NOC 4: Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services#441 Home care providers and educational support occupations 5,500

#403 Secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors 4,900

#421 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 4,500

#415 Social and community service professionals 1,600

#416 Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers 1,400

#431 Occupations in front-line public protection services 1,300

#402 College and other vocational instructors 700

#401 University professors and post-secondary assistants 600

#442 Legal and public protection support occupations 500

#411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 400

NOC 5: Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

#513 Creative and performing artists 800

#524 Creative designers and craftspersons 800

#512 Writing, translating and related communications professionals 500

#525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 400

#522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

300

#521 Technical occupations in libraries, public archives, museums and art galleries 200

#511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 100

#523 Announcers and other performers, *n.e.c. 100



NOC 6: Sales and service occupations#673 Cleaners 6,000

#642 Retail salespersons 4,000

#632 Chefs and cooks 2,800

#671 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,800

#651 Occupations in food and beverage service 2,500

#655 Customer and information services representatives 2,100

#661 Cashiers 1,700

#623 Insurance, real estate and financial sales occupations 1,400

#654 Security guards and related security service occupations 1,200

#662 Other sales support and related occupations 1,200

#631 Service supervisors 1,100

#641 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 1,100

#622 Technical sales specialists in wholesale trade and retail and wholesale buyers 1,000

#652 Occupations in travel and accommodation 800

#621 Retail sales supervisors 500

#633 Butchers and bakers 500

#674 Other service support and related occupations, *n.e.c. 500

#634 Specialized occupations in personal and customer services 400

#653 Tourism and amusement services occupations 200

#672 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and amusement services 200

#656 Other occupations in personal service 100



NOC 7: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations#751 Motor vehicle and transit drivers 6,300

#723 Machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 1,500

#745 Longshore workers and material handlers 1,400

#732 Automotive service technicians 1,300

#724 Electrical trades and electrical power line and telecommunications workers 1,200

#731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 1,200

#727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 1,000

#720 Contractors and supervisors, industrial, electrical and construction trades and related workers

900

#730 Contractors and supervisors, maintenance trades and heavy equipment and transport operators

700

#752 Heavy equipment operators 600

#761 Trades helpers and labourers 600

#729 Other construction trades 500

#744 Other installers, repairers and servicers 500

#725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 300

#738 Printing press operators and other trades and related occupations, *n.e.c. 300

#753 Other transport equipment operators and related maintenance workers 300

#762 Public works and other labourers, *n.e.c. 300

#728 Masonry and plastering trades 200

#733 Other mechanics and related repairers 100

#736 Train crew operating occupations 100

#737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 100



NOC 8: Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations#843 Agriculture and horticulture workers 1,100

#861 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 700

#825 Contractors and supervisors, agriculture, horticulture and related operations and services

200

#826 Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 100

#821 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0

#822 Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 0

#823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related occupations 0

#824 Logging machinery operators 0

#841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling 0

#842 Logging and forestry workers 0

#844 Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 0

NOC 9: Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

#961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 2,000

#952 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers 1,300

#946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and associated products processing

1,100

#953 Other assembly and related occupations 1,000

#921 Supervisors, processing and manufacturing occupations 600

#941 Machine operators and related workers in mineral and metal products processing and manufacturing

600

#924 Utilities equipment operators and controllers 500

#922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication 300

#942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing 300

#943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing and manufacturing

300

#944 Machine operators and related workers in textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

300

#947 Printing equipment operators and related occupations 200

#923 Central control and process operators in processing and manufacturing 100



Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC Level, 2019 to 2025

NOC Occupation title

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Management Occupations

#0011 Legislators 0 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 200

#0012 Senior government managers and officials 0 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#0013Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

0 1,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 400 400

#0014

Senior managers - health, education, social and community services and membership organizations

0 1,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 400 500

#0015Senior managers - trade, broadcasting and other services, *n.e.c.

0 1,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#0016Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

0 1,700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 600 600

#0111 Financial managers 0 2,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 600 700

#0112 Human resources managers 0 1,500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#0113 Purchasing managers 0 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#0114 Other administrative services managers 0 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 300

#0121Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers

0 1,000 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 300

#0122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 0 1,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#0124Advertising, marketing and public relations managers

0 1,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#0125 Other business services managers 0 700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#0131 Telecommunication carriers managers 0 200 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 100 100 100

#0132 Postal and courier services managers 0 100 0 0 0

#0211 Engineering managers 0 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0212 Architecture and science managers 0 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0213Computer and information systems managers

0 1,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#0311 Managers in health care 0 1,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 600 700

#0411Government managers - health and social policy development and program administration

0 100 0 0 0

#0412Government managers - economic analysis, policy development and program administration

0 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0413Government managers - education policy development and program administration

0 0 0 0 0



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Management Occupations

#0414 Other managers in public administration 0 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0421Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training

0 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#0422School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education

0 1,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 500 600

#0423Managers in social, community and correctional services

0 1,500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 500 600

#0431 Commissioned police officers 0 0 0 0 0

#0432 Fire chiefs and senior fire-fighting officers 0 100 0 0 0

#0433 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Forces 0 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#0511 Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 0 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0512Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts

0 200 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0513Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors

0 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0601 Corporate sales managers 0 1,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 500 600

#0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 0 13,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1,000 3,600 4,600

#0631 Restaurant and food service managers 0 4,200 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 600 700 1,400

#0632 Accommodation service managers 0 1,100 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 300 300 600

#0651Managers in customer and personal services, *n.e.c.

0 1,000 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 100 200

#0711 Construction managers 0 3,200 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 700 700

#0712 Home building and renovation managers 0 1,700 2 2 4 4 3 3 3 100 400 500

#0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers 0 2,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 600 800

#0731 Managers in transportation 0 1,500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 400

#0811Managers in natural resources production and fishing

0 100 0 0 0

#0821 Managers in agriculture 0 12,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 -400 4,300 3,900

#0822 Managers in horticulture 0 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#0823 Managers in aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0

#0911 Manufacturing managers 0 2,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 900 1,000

#0912 Utilities managers 0 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100



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#1111 Financial auditors and accountants A 6,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 1,200 1,500

#1112 Financial and investment analysts A 900 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 200

#1113Securities agents, investment dealers and brokers

A 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1114 Other financial officers A 3,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 700 900

#1121 Human resources professionals A 2,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 600

#1122Professional occupations in business management consulting

A 1,500 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 300 300

#1123Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations

A 2,000 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 100 300 400

#1211Supervisors, general office and administrative support workers

B 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1212 Supervisors, finance and insurance office workers B 800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#1213Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers

B 100 0 0 0

#1214Supervisors, mail and message distribution occupations

B 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#1215Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

B 1,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#1221 Administrative officers B 7,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 2,100 2,400

#1222 Executive assistants B 1,200 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 100 300 300

#1223 Human resources and recruitment officers B 800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#1224 Property administrators B 1,700 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 100 500 500

#1225 Purchasing agents and officers B 1,400 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 100 300 400

#1226 Conference and event planners B 600 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1227 Court officers and justices of the peace B 100 0 0 0

#1228Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers

B 1,000 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 100 200 300

#1241 Administrative assistants B 8,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 1,800 2,100

#1242 Legal administrative assistants B 1,200 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 0 200 300

#1243 Medical administrative assistants B 1,900 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 200 400 600

#1251Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations

B 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1252Health information management occupations

B 300 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#1253 Records management technicians B 100 0 0 0



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#1254Statistical officers and related research support occupations

B 100 0 0 0

#1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers B 4,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 1,200 1,300

#1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners B 1,400 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 300 300

#1313 Insurance underwriters B 600 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1314 Assessors, valuators and appraisers B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1315 Customs, ship and other brokers B 100 0 0 100

#1411 General office support workers C 9,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 600 2,100 2,700

#1414 Receptionists C 5,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 400 700 1,100

#1415 Personnel clerks C 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1416 Court clerks C 100 0 0 0

#1422 Data entry clerks C 1,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#1423Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#1431 Accounting and related clerks C 6,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 400 1,300 1,700

#1432 Payroll clerks C 1,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#1434 Banking, insurance and other financial clerks C 1,000 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#1435 Collectors C 400 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#1451 Library assistants and clerks C 400 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#1452Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks

C 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 200

#1454 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks C 1,000 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 300

#1511 Mail, postal and related workers C 1,000 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 100 200 300

#1512 Letter carriers C 900 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 100 200 300

#1513Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors

C 1,100 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 100 200 400

#1521 Shippers and receivers C 3,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 600 900

#1522 Storekeepers and partspersons C 1,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#1523 Production logistics co-ordinators C 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 200

#1524 Purchasing and inventory control workers C 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 200

#1525 Dispatchers C 1,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#1526 Transportation route and crew schedulers C 300 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100



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#2111 Physicists and astronomers A 100 0 0 0

#2112 Chemists A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2113 Geoscientists and oceanographers A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2114 Meteorologists and climatologists A 100 0 0 0

#2115Other professional occupations in physical sciences

A 0 0 0 0

#2121 Biologists and related scientists A 800 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2122 Forestry professionals A 100 0 0 0

#2123Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists

A 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2131 Civil engineers A 1,800 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 300 300

#2132 Mechanical engineers A 1,300 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 300

#2133 Electrical and electronics engineers A 1,100 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#2134 Chemical engineers A 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers A 400 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2143 Mining engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2144 Geological engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2145 Petroleum engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2146 Aerospace engineers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2147Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers)

A 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2148 Other professional engineers, *n.e.c. A 100 0 0 0

#2151 Architects A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 100 0

#2152 Landscape architects A 100 0 0 0

#2153 Urban and land use planners A 300 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0

#2154 Land surveyors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2161 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2171 Information systems analysts and consultants A 3,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 600 800

#2172 Database analysts and data administrators A 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2173 Software engineers and designers A 600 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2174Computer programmers and interactive media developers

A 2,400 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#2175 Web designers and developers A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



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#2211 Chemical technologists and technicians B 800 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2212Geological and mineral technologists and technicians

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2221 Biological technologists and technicians B 500 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2222 Agricultural and fish products inspectors B 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#2223 Forestry technologists and technicians B 100 0 0 0

#2224 Conservation and fishery officers B 200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2225Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists

B 400 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 0 100 100

#2231Civil engineering technologists and technicians

B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2232Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2233Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians

B 700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 200

#2234 Construction estimators B 800 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#2241Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians

B 1,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 300 300

#2242Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment)

B 2,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#2243Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics

B 100 0 0 0

#2244Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors

B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2251Architectural technologists and technicians

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2252 Industrial designers B 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#2253 Drafting technologists and technicians B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 200 200

#2254Land survey technologists and technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2255Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology

B 300 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0

#2261Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2262 Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers B 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#2263Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

B 1,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#2264 Construction inspectors B 500 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors B 800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 200



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#2272 Air traffic controllers and related occupations B 300 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#2273 Deck officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2274 Engineer officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2275Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators

B 100 0 0 0

#2281 Computer network technicians B 2,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 400 500

#2282 User support technicians B 1,500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 300 400

#2283 Information systems testing technicians B 200 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

Health occupations

#3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors A 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3012Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses

A 16,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1,700 3,100 4,800

#3111 Specialist physicians A 1,700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 300 500

#3112 General practitioners and family physicians A 2,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 300 500

#3113 Dentists A 600 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3114 Veterinarians A 300 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 0 100 100

#3121 Optometrists A 200 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 100

#3122 Chiropractors A 300 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#3124 Allied primary health practitioners A 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#3125Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating

A 100 0 0 0

#3131 Pharmacists A 1,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#3132 Dietitians and nutritionists A 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#3141 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists A 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#3142 Physiotherapists A 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3143 Occupational therapists A 600 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 100

#3144Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment

A 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#3211 Medical laboratory technologists B 1,000 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 100 200 300

#3212Medical laboratory technicians and pathologists' assistants

B 900 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 200

#3213Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians

B 500 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#3214Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

B 400 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#3215 Medical radiation technologists B 900 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300



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Health occupations

#3216 Medical sonographers B 200 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#3217Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, *n.e.c.

B 200 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 0 0 100

#3219Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

B 1,500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#3221 Denturists B 100 0 0 0

#3222 Dental hygienists and dental therapists B 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3223Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory assistants

B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#3231 Opticians B 200 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#3232 Practitioners of natural healing B 200 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#3233 Licensed practical nurses B 2,500 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 300 500 800

#3234 Paramedical occupations B 1,000 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3236 Massage therapists B 1,100 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3237Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment

B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#3411 Dental assistants C 1,000 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3413Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates

C 17,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2,200 3,000 5,200

#3414Other assisting occupations in support of health services

C 1,700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 300 500


#4011 University professors and lecturers A 2,600 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 -100 700 500

#4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants A 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#4021 College and other vocational instructors A 3,100 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 700 700

#4031 Secondary school teachers A 5,400 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 400 1,200 1,600

#4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers A 10,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1,100 2,000 3,100

#4033 Educational counsellors A 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 300

#4111 Judges A 100 0 0 0

#4112 Lawyers and Quebec notaries A 2,100 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 300

#4151 Psychologists A 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4152 Social workers A 2,700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 400 700

#4153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors A 1,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#4154 Professional occupations in religion A 1,700 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 -100 400 300

#4155Probation and parole officers and related occupations

A 300 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 0 0 100



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#4156 Employment counsellors A 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4161Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 600 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4162Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts

A 300 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4163Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants

A 1,400 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 100 200 300

#4164Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#4165Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 1,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#4166Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 800 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#4167Recreation, sports and fitness policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4168 Program officers unique to government A 400 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4169Other professional occupations in social science, *n.e.c.

A 100 0 0 0

#4211 Paralegal and related occupations B 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#4212 Social and community service workers B 7,700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 800 1,300 2,100

#4214 Early childhood educators and assistants B 7,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 900 1,000 1,900

#4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#4216 Other instructors B 800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#4217 Other religious occupations B 400 4 2 2 2 3 4 3 0 100 100

#4311 Police officers (except commissioned) B 2,100 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 200 400 700

#4312 Firefighters B 900 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 100 200 300

#4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces B 1,500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 200 400

#4411 Home child care providers C 3,900 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 400 700 1,000

#4412Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations

C 6,300 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 700 1,300 2,000

#4413Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants

C 8,200 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 800 1,700 2,500

#4421 Sheriffs and bailiffs C 100 0 0 0

#4422 Correctional service officers C 1,700 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 100 300 400

#4423By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, *n.e.c.

C 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100



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#5111 Librarians A 100 0 0 0

#5112 Conservators and curators A 100 0 0 0

#5113 Archivists A 100 0 0 0

#5121 Authors and writers A 700 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 100 200 200

#5122 Editors A 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#5123 Journalists A 400 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 100 0 100

#5125Translators, terminologists and interpreters

A 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#5131Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations

A 600 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 0 100 200

#5132 Conductors, composers and arrangers A 100 0 0 0

#5133 Musicians and singers A 1,500 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 100 200 300

#5134 Dancers A 400 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5135 Actors and comedians A 200 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists A 600 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 100 100 200

#5211 Library and public archive technicians B 500 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 200

#5212Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries

B 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5221 Photographers B 500 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 0 100 100

#5222 Film and video camera operators B 200 2 2 5 3 3 3 4 0 0 0

#5223 Graphic arts technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5224 Broadcast technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5225 Audio and video recording technicians B 200 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#5226

Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

B 300 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 0 100 100

#5227

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts

B 200 2 2 4 3 3 3 4 0 0 0

#5231 Announcers and other broadcasters B 300 2 4 5 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#5232 Other performers, *n.e.c. B 200 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0

#5241 Graphic designers and illustrators B 1,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#5242 Interior designers and interior decorators B 600 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 0 100 200

#5243Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers

B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#5244 Artisans and craftspersons B 500 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 200 200



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#5245 Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products B 0 0 0 0

#5251 Athletes B 0 0 0 0

#5252 Coaches B 200 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 0

#5253 Sports officials and referees B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5254Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness

B 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 300


#6211 Retail sales supervisors B 2,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 400 500

#6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade B 2,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 500 700

#6222 Retail and wholesale buyers B 1,300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#6231 Insurance agents and brokers B 2,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 400 400

#6232 Real estate agents and salespersons B 2,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 400 500

#6235 Financial sales representatives B 2,300 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 400 500

#6311 Food service supervisors B 1,800 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 300 200 500

#6312 Executive housekeepers B 100 0 0 100

#6313Accommodation, travel, tourism and related services supervisors

B 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#6314Customer and information services supervisors

B 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#6315 Cleaning supervisors B 500 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 100 200 200

#6316 Other services supervisors B 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#6321 Chefs B 1,600 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 200 200 500

#6322 Cooks B 8,300 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 1,300 1,000 2,300

#6331Butchers, meat cutters and fishmongers - retail and wholesale

B 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#6332 Bakers B 1,500 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 200 200 400

#6341 Hairstylists and barbers B 3,700 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 -300 500 100

#6342 Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners B 600 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 0 200 200

#6343 Shoe repairers and shoemakers B 0 0 0 0

#6344Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occupations

B 100 0 0 0

#6345 Upholsterers B 200 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 0 100 100

#6346 Funeral directors and embalmers B 300 4 2 2 2 3 4 3 0 100 0

#6411Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)

C 3,600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 800 1,100



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#6421 Retail salespersons C 21,300 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1,500 2,500 4,000

#6511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses C 1,000 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 200 0 200

#6512 Bartenders C 1,700 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 300 100 500

#6513 Food and beverage servers C 8,200 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 1,500 400 1,900

#6521 Travel counsellors C 500 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 0 100 200

#6522 Pursers and flight attendants C 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#6523 Airline ticket and service agents C 500 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 0 100 100

#6524

Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks

C 100 0 0 0

#6525 Hotel front desk clerks C 900 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 300 100 400

#6531 Tour and travel guides C 100 0 0 0

#6532 Outdoor sport and recreational guides C 200 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 100

#6533 Casino occupations C 700 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 0 100 200

#6541Security guards and related security service occupations

C 4,300 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 400 800 1,200

#6551Customer services representatives - financial institutions

C 2,700 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 400 600

#6552Other customer and information services representatives

C 6,800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 600 900 1,500

#6561 Image, social and other personal consultants C 100 0 0 0

#6562Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations

C 1,700 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 200 0

#6563 Pet groomers and animal care workers C 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#6564 Other personal service occupations C 0 0 0 0

#6611 Cashiers D 10,300 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 800 900 1,700

#6621 Service station attendants D 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6622 Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers D 5,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 400 800

#6623 Other sales related occupations D 1,000 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6711Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations

D 13,300 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 2,000 700 2,800

#6721Support occupations in accommodation, travel and facilities set-up services

D 300 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 100

#6722Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport

D 900 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 100 100 200

#6731 Light duty cleaners D 9,000 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 1,300 1,800 3,100



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#6732 Specialized cleaners D 2,100 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents D 8,600 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 600 1,900 2,600

#6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations D 1,200 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 100 300 300

#6742 Other service support occupations, *n.e.c. D 900 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 0 100 100


#7201

Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

B 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7202

Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

B 600 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#7203Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades

B 200 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 0

#7204Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades

B 800 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7205

Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers

B 1,700 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 400 400

#7231Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors

B 1,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 300

#7232 Tool and die makers B 200 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#7233 Sheet metal workers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7234 Boilermakers B 100 0 0 0

#7235Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters

B 200 0 0 0

#7236 Ironworkers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7237 Welders and related machine operators B 4,500 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 200 700 900

#7241Electricians (except industrial and power system)

B 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 500 400

#7242 Industrial electricians B 900 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7243 Power system electricians B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7244 Electrical power line and cable workers B 700 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers B 400 3 4 5 4 3 4 4 100 100 100

#7246Telecommunications installation and repair workers

B 600 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 200 200 300

#7247Cable television service and maintenance technicians

B 0 0 0 0

#7251 Plumbers B 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 300 200



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#7252Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7253 Gas fitters B 200 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7271 Carpenters B 5,900 2 2 3 4 2 2 2 100 800 900

#7272 Cabinetmakers B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7281 Bricklayers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7201

Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

B 600 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7202

Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

B 600 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#7203Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades

B 200 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 0

#7204Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades

B 800 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7205

Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers

B 1,700 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 400 400

#7231Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors

B 1,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 300 300

#7232 Tool and die makers B 200 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#7233 Sheet metal workers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7234 Boilermakers B 100 0 0 0

#7235Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters

B 200 0 0 0

#7236 Ironworkers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7237 Welders and related machine operators B 4,500 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 200 700 900

#7241Electricians (except industrial and power system)

B 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 500 400

#7242 Industrial electricians B 900 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7243 Power system electricians B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7244 Electrical power line and cable workers B 700 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers B 400 3 4 5 4 3 4 4 100 100 100

#7246Telecommunications installation and repair workers

B 600 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 200 200 300

#7247Cable television service and maintenance technicians

B 0 0 0 0

#7251 Plumbers B 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 300 200



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#7252Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7253 Gas fitters B 200 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7271 Carpenters B 5,900 2 2 3 4 2 2 2 100 800 900

#7272 Cabinetmakers B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7281 Bricklayers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7282 Concrete finishers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#7283 Tilesetters B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7284Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers

B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7291 Roofers and shinglers B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7292 Glaziers B 200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7293 Insulators B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7294Painters and decorators (except interior decorators)

B 1,600 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 300 300

#7295 Floor covering installers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7301Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades

B 800 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#7302Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews

B 1,700 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 -100 400 300

#7303 Supervisors, printing and related occupations B 100 0 0 100

#7304 Supervisors, railway transport operations B 300 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#7305Supervisors, motor transport and other ground transit operators

B 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics B 2,200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 400 500

#7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics B 2,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 400 300

#7313 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7314 Railway carmen/women B 400 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 0 100 0

#7315 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors B 900 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 200

#7316 Machine fitters B 100 0 0 0

#7318 Elevator constructors and mechanics B 100 0 0 0

#7321Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers

B 6,700 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 0 1,200 1,200

#7322 Motor vehicle body repairers B 1,500 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 -100 200 200

#7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics B 0 0 0 0

#7332 Appliance servicers and repairers B 200 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 0 100 0



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#7333 Electrical mechanics B 200 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#7334Motorcycle, all-terrain vehicle and other related mechanics

B 200 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 0 0 0

#7335Other small engine and small equipment repairers

B 100 0 0 0

#7361 Railway and yard locomotive engineers B 600 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#7362 Railway conductors and brakemen/women B 500 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 0 0 0

#7371 Crane operators B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7372Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction

B 100 0 0 0

#7373 Water well drillers B 0 0 0 0

#7381 Printing press operators B 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 300

#7384 Other trades and related occupations, *n.e.c. B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#7441Residential and commercial installers and servicers

C 1,800 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 300 300

#7442 Waterworks and gas maintenance workers C 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 100

#7444 Pest controllers and fumigators C 200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7445 Other repairers and servicers C 500 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#7451 Longshore workers C 0 0 0 0

#7452 Material handlers C 5,700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 400 1,000 1,400

#7511 Transport truck drivers C 15,500 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 900 3,200 4,100

#7512Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators

C 3,400 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 100 800 900

#7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs C 2,300 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 400 500

#7514 Delivery and courier service drivers C 3,100 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 300 500 800

#7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) C 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 600 400

#7522Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers

C 700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 200

#7531 Railway yard and track maintenance workers C 700 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 0 100 100

#7532 Water transport deck and engine room crew C 0 0 0 0

#7533Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#7534 Air transport ramp attendants C 400 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#7535Other automotive mechanical installers and servicers

C 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers D 6,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 800 600

#7612 Other trades helpers and labourers D 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0



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#7621 Public works and maintenance labourers D 1,100 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#7622 Railway and motor transport labourers D 300 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0


#8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry B 100 0 0 0

#8221 Supervisors, mining and quarrying B 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#8222Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8231 Underground production and development miners B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 200 0

#8232Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 0 0

#8241 Logging machinery operators B 200 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8252

Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers

B 700 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#8255Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services

B 700 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 0 100 100

#8261 Fishing masters and officers B 0 0 0 0

#8262 Fishermen/women B 400 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 100 100 100

#8411Underground mine service and support workers

C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8412Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators

C 100 0 0 0

#8421 Chain saw and skidder operators C 200 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8422 Silviculture and forestry workers C 0 0 0 0

#8431 General farm workers C 7,500 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 -200 1,200 1,000

#8432 Nursery and greenhouse workers C 600 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#8441 Fishing vessel deckhands C 0 0 0 0

#8442 Trappers and hunters C 0 0 0 0

#8611 Harvesting labourers D 200 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8612Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers

D 3,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 300 500 800

#8613 Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers D 0 0 0 0

#8614 Mine labourers D 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#8615Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers

D 100 0 0 0

#8616 Logging and forestry labourers D 0 0 0 0



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#9211 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing B 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#9212Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities

B 500 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 0 200 200

#9213Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing

B 700 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 100 200 200

#9214Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing

B 200 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 0 0 100

#9215 Supervisors, forest products processing B 100 0 0 100

#9217Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

B 100 0 0 0

#9221 Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling B 100 0 0 0

#9222 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing B 100 0 0 0

#9223 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing B 100 0 0 0

#9224 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing B 300 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 0 100 100

#9226Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing

B 200 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#9227Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly

B 100 0 0 0

#9231Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing

B 100 0 0 0

#9232Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 0

#9235Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators

B 0 0 0 0

#9241 Power engineers and power systems operators B 1,300 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 100 300 400

#9243 Water and waste treatment plant operators B 600 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 0 100 100

#9411Machine operators, mineral and metal processing

C 300 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 0 100 100

#9412 Foundry workers C 200 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 0 0 0

#9413Glass forming and finishing machine operators and glass cutters

C 100 0 0 0

#9414 Concrete, clay and stone forming operators C 100 0 0 0

#9415Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing

C 100 0 0 0

#9416Metalworking and forging machine operators

C 800 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 100 200 200

#9417 Machining tool operators C 500 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 100 100

#9418 Other metal products machine operators C 300 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 0 100 100



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#9421 Chemical plant machine operators C 600 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9422 Plastics processing machine operators C 700 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 100 100 200

#9423Rubber processing machine operators and related workers

C 200 4 4 2 2 2 3 2 0 0 0

#9431 Sawmill machine operators C 100 0 0 0

#9432 Pulp mill machine operators C 0 0 0 0

#9433Papermaking and finishing machine operators

C 0 0 0 0

#9434 Other wood processing machine operators C 100 0 0 0

#9435 Paper converting machine operators C 200 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 100

#9436Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders

C 100 0 0 0

#9437 Woodworking machine operators C 500 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#9441Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers

C 100 0 0 0

#9442Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations

C 100 0 0 0

#9445 Fabric, fur and leather cutters C 100 0 0 0

#9446 Industrial sewing machine operators C 1,000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 200 200

#9447Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing

C 100 0 0 0

#9461Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 1,400 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#9462Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers

C 2,000 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 200 400 600

#9463 Fish and seafood plant workers C 0 0 0 0

#9465Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 300 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#9471 Plateless printing equipment operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9472Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations

C 100 0 0 0

#9473 Binding and finishing machine operators C 400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#9474 Photographic and film processors C 100 0 0 0

#9521Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors

C 600 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 0 200 200

#9522Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers

C 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100



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#9523Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers

C 500 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#9524

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

C 400 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 100 100 200

#9525Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers

C 100 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 100

#9526 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors C 1,700 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 200 400 600

#9527Machine operators and inspectors, electrical apparatus manufacturing

C 100 0 0 0

#9531 Boat assemblers and inspectors C 0 0 0 0

#9532Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors

C 900 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 0 200 200

#9533Other wood products assemblers and inspectors

C 400 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9534 Furniture finishers and refinishers C 500 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 100 100

#9535Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 500 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 0 100 100

#9536Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators

C 1,100 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 100 200 200

#9537Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 1,300 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 200 300

#9611 Labourers in mineral and metal processing D 300 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 0 0 0

#9612 Labourers in metal fabrication D 500 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 0 100 100

#9613Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities

D 300 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 0 100 100

#9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing D 300 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9615Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing

D 200 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9616 Labourers in textile processing D 0 0 0 0

#9617Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing

D 3,600 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 400 600 1,000

#9618 Labourers in fish and seafood processing D 100 0 0 0

#9619Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

D 2,400 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 200 500 600



Key Data SourcesA variety of qualitative and quantitative data and information sources were used, including:

• Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC)

• International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Manitoba Bureau of Statistics

• Manitoba Finance - Budget 2019

• Statistics Canada

• National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016

For more information:

Economic Analysis and Research Unit Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and TradePhone: 204-807-3783Email: [email protected]

manitoba.ca/lmi

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2019 to 2025

manitoba labour market occupational forecasts …...2 manitoba labour market occupational forecasts...

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