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INVEST. BUILD. GROWMANITOBA

LABOUR MARKET OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTS2017-2023

SUMMARY FINDINGS

The findings in this report are based on labour market supply and demand projections for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.

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iManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017-2023

TABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE .................................................................................................................................................. 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 2

RÉSUMÉ ................................................................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER 1: MANITOBA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY FINDINGS, 2017 to 2023....... 6

1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand ...................................................................................................... 7

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand ........................................................................................... 7

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation ........................................................................................ 8

1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training ......................................................... 14

1.2.4 High-demand Occupations by Industry Sector ............................................................ 15

1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply ....................................................................................................... 18

1.3.1. Labour Force Outlook .................................................................................................. 18

1.3.2 Labour Force Participation ........................................................................................... 19

1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply ............................................................................................ 20

1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply ............................................................................. 22

CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKS ....................................................... 26

2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 26

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies ................................................................... 26

2.2.1 International and National Outlook ............................................................................. 26

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook .................................................................................... 27

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba ........................................... 28

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2016 Custom Projection ....................................................................... 28

2.3 National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status ......................................................... 29

2.3.1 National Labour Market ............................................................................................... 29

2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market ........................................................................................... 30

2.4 Population................................................................................................................................ 32

CHAPTER 3: SECINC FORECASTING MODEL .................................................................................... 34

3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions ............................................................... 34

ii Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017-2023

APPENDICES ......................................................................................................................................... 35

Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2016 to 2023 .................................. 36

Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and Demand 2016 to 2023 ............................ 38

Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, 2017 to 2023 ................................................. 44

Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the Four-digit NOC level, 2017 to 2023 ............................................................................... 50

CHART LIST

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand – 2017 to 2023 ............................................................................. 7

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source – 2017 to 2023 ....................................................................... 8

Chart 3: Occupation Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings, Replacement and Expansion Demand – 2017 to 2023 ......................................................... 10

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level – 2017 to 2023 ........................................................ 14

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force, Estimated and Projected – 2016 to 2023 ..................................... 18

Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected - 2016 to 2023 ........ 19

Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change, Manitoba – 2017 to 2023 ............................................... 21

Chart 8: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, Manitoba – 2017 to 2023 ................................ 21

Chart 9: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected – 2016 to 2023 .......................................... 32

Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected – 2016 to 2023 ................................ 33

Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution Change – 2016 to 2023 ............................................................. 33

iiiManitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017-2023

TABLE LIST

Table 1: Manitoba Job Openings by One-digit NOC and Source, 2017 to 2023 ............................... 11

Table 2: Manitoba Job Openings by Two-digit NOC and Source, 2017 to 2023 ............................... 12

Table 3: Manitoba Job Openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2017 to 2023 .......................... 15

Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2017 to 2023 ................................................ 16

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2017 to 2023 .................................................. 22

Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2017 to 2023 .................................... 25

Table 7: Selected Key Economic Growth Indicators, 2017 to 2023 .................................................... 29

Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+), 2012 to 2016 ......... 31

1Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017-2023

PrefaceThe Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report is produced by Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade. We acknowledge the assistance, feedback and support from other Manitoba government departments consulted, as well as the external stakeholders who played a role in validating results.

We would like specifically to acknowledge the assistance of the Alliance of Manitoba Sector Councils (AMSC), Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, Manitoba Hydro and the following provincial government departments: Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Finance.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report 2017 to 2023 identifies expected trends for the labour market. The report helps to improve our understanding of the state of Manitoba’s labour market and the key issues involved in achieving future labour market goals. It has been developed as a tool to support workforce policy and programming. The information presented in this report provides a scenario on the future demand of occupations across industry sectors and describes the supply of workers required to meet this demand.

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on the work of Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade with Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC). SECINC senior economists have created an occupation model that simulates the effect of changes in market conditions and enables clients to produce an annual provincial forecast of labour market supply and demand by occupation. In 2016, SECINC used this occupation model to create a custom projection of Manitoba’s labour force, with results for the seven years between 2017 and 2023 provided in this report.

It provides a quantitative assessment of Manitoba’s occupation demand forecast and supply requirements, including new entrants, international immigrants, interprovincial migrants and inter-occupation migrants, over the next seven years.

While the results of Manitoba’s custom projection offer an internally-consistent and comprehensive picture of the occupational labour markets across Manitoba, it is cautioned that precise conclusions should not be drawn on small samples, occupations or industry groups. Occupations with fewer people will have less reliable information than those with more people. The projection results should be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts. For example, while some Manitoba occupations are forecasted to see a higher demand for workers than others, estimates of precise numeric demand for workers in a given year of the forecast scenario should be treated with caution.

Further, while the projection provides an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, it is not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Within occupations, there may be unique conditions that are not captured in the analysis. Economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time. Despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented in this report.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts Report and the results of Manitoba’s custom projection are intended to complement existing work on occupation projection and forecasting, including the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and labour market forecasts prepared for particular industries by sector councils, government departments and other groups. While the approaches and purposes of various projection models may differ, Manitoba officials will continue to engage these groups to understand the differences and build consistencies where feasible.

2 Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017-2023

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• The Manitoba economy will see a total of

166,500 job openings between 2017 and 2023, with 68 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 23,800 total job openings per year.

• Manitoba’s economy will see 163,500 new workers join the labour force between 2017 and 2023, or approximately 23,400 workers a year.

• Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.3 percentage points between 2017 and 2023.

• After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.5 per cent annually from 2017 to 2023.

• Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.0 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.2 per cent annually.

Total Labour Demand

• A total of 166,500 job openings will be createdbetween 2017 and 2023.

• Expansion demand (new jobs due toeconomic growth) is forecasted to create53,900 job openings (32 per cent of the total).Replacement demand (job openings fromretirements and deaths) is forecasted to create112,600 job openings (68 per cent of the total).

• The occupation group with the most expectedjob openings is sales and service at 32,000or 19.2 per cent of the total Manitoba jobopenings outlook.

• Job openings in business, finance andadministration occupations are estimated at27,400 or 16.5 per cent; and occupations ineducation, law and social, community andgovernment services at 23,800 or 14.3 percent.

• Within the sales and service occupationgroup, the highest number of job openingsis expected for the following sub-groups:cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counterattendants, kitchen helpers and relatedoccupations.

• For all occupation groups, replacementdemand is more prominent than expansiondemand over the forecast period. However, inoccupations in Health and Sales and Service,expansion demand almost equals replacementdemand.

• With regard to educational requirements, ofthe 166,500 forecasted job openings over theseven-year period, approximately 62 per centare forecasted to require some post-secondaryeducation and training (ex: college, university,trade certification). The remaining 38 per centmay not necessitate post-secondary training oreducation, but may have occupation-specific oron-the-job training requirements.


Total Labour Supply

• It is forecasted that there will be an additional163,500 workers over the forecast period tooffset the total labour demand.

• The additional supply is forecasted to consistof 92,500 new entrants, 38,000 net in-migrantsand 33,000 net other in-mobility workers.

• With 163,500 workers joining the labour forceand 112,600 people leaving due to retirementsand deaths, the total labour force in Manitobais projected to increase by 50,900 persons overthe forecast period.

Gaps in Demand versus Supply

• Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province.

• In each year from 2017 to 2023, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 6,100 workers. While the gap is more significant in 2017 and 2018, with an average of 7,400, it closes to about 5,600 over the last five years of the forecast period, with supply estimated to outpace demand by 5,800 workers in 2023.

• Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 3,100 workers. The unemployment rate is expected to be highest in 2017 and then continue to decrease over the forecast period as labour demand grows slightly faster than supply from 2017 onward.

Why do the numbers change?

• As the economy changes, the macro-economicassumptions and data underlying this reportare updated regularly with the best dataavailable at the time. For example, economicchanges like the oil-price decrease of 2014/15and ongoing, weaker than expected domesticeconomic performance, have widespreadimplications for the labour market in Manitoba,Canada and around the world. In addition,with every update of the report, it covers anew seven-year period. As a result, directcomparison of the labour supply and demandforecasts year-over-year is not advised.

• Please see Chapter 3 and Appendix 1 for moreon the methodology and macro-economicassumptions behind this report.

4 Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2017 à 2023

RÉSUMÉ• L’économie manitobaine verra l’ouverture

d’un total de 166 500 emplois au cours de la période 2017 2023, dont 68 pour cent en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès. Selon les prévisions, le nombre total d’emplois à pourvoir par année sera d’environ 23 800.

• L’économie manitobaine verra 163 500 nouveaux travailleurs se joindre à la population active pendant la période 2017-2023, soit environ 23 400 travailleurs par an.

• Le taux de chômage au Manitoba devrait diminuer, passant de 6,1 pour cent en 2017 à 5,8 pour cent en 2023.

• Après le rajustement pour l’inflation, l’économie du Manitoba devrait connaître une croissance moyenne de 1,5 pour cent par an durant la période 2017-2023.

• Sur le marché du travail manitobain, le revenu horaire du travail devrait augmenter de 2,0 pour cent par an en moyenne au cours des sept prochaines années. Pendant cette même période, on s’attend à une augmentation moyenne de 3,2 pour cent par an du revenu personnel au Manitoba.

Demande totale de main-d’œuvre

• Un total de 166 500 emplois seront ouverts à l’embauche entre 2017 et 2023.

• Selon les prévisions, la demande d’expansion (c’est-à-dire, le besoin de nouveaux postes causé par la croissance économique) devrait ouvrir 53 900 emplois (soit 32 pour cent du total). La demande de remplacement (emplois ouverts en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès) devrait quant à elle créer 112 600 ouvertures de poste (68 pour cent du total).

• Le groupe professionnel qui devrait connaître le plus nombre d’ouvertures de poste est celui de la vente et des services avec 32 000 postes à pourvoir, soit 19,2 pour cent du total des emplois qui seront offerts au Manitoba.

• Dans le domaine des affaires, des finances et de l’administration, on estime qu’il y aura 27 400 postes à pourvoir (soit 16,5 pour cent). Dans le domaine de l’éducation, du droit et des services sociaux, communautaires ou gouvernementaux, ce chiffre s’élèvera à 23 800 emplois (soit 14,3 pour cent).

• Au sein du groupe professionnel de la vente et des services, la plus grande partie des offres d’emploi devrait avoir lieu dans les sous-groupes suivants : nettoyeurs, vendeurs de commerce de détail, serveurs et serveuses au comptoir, aides de cuisine et personnel assimilé.

• Pour la période envisagée, la demande de remplacement est plus importante que la demande d’expansion dans tous les groupes professionnels. On note cependant que, dans le domaine de la santé ainsi que dans celui des ventes et des services, la demande d’expansion est presque égale à la demande de remplacement.

• En ce qui concerne les exigences relatives au niveau de scolarité, pendant la période de sept années envisagée, environ 62 pour cent des 166 500 offres d’emploi prévues devraient nécessiter un certain niveau de formation et d’études postsecondaires (p. ex. un diplôme collégial ou universitaire ou un certificat professionnel). Les 38 pour cent restants ne nécessiteront peut-être pas d’études ou de formations postsecondaires, mais pourraient demander une formation spécifique à l’emploi ou une formation en cours d’emploi.

5Prévisions par profession pour le marché du travail du Manitoba de 2017 à 2023

Offre totale de main-d’œuvre

• Il devrait y avoir 163 500 travailleurs additionnels au cours de la période envisagée pour contrebalancer la demande totale de main-d’œuvre.

• L’offre supplémentaire de main-d’œuvre devrait se ventiler comme suit : 92 500 personnes faisant leur entrée sur le marché du travail, un total net de 38 000 personnes provenant de la migration et un total net de 33 000 personnes provenant de la mobilité de la main-d’œuvre.

• Étant donné que 163 500 nouveaux travailleurs se joindront à la population active et que 112 600 postes deviendront vacants en raison de départs à la retraite et de décès, la population active du Manitoba devrait s’accroitre de 50 900 travailleurs pendant la période envisagée.

Écarts entre l’offre et la demande

• Dans l’ensemble, le marché du travail du Manitoba devrait demeurer équilibré au cours de la période envisagée, avec une offre globale de main-d’œuvre en mesure de répondre à la demande du marché du travail. Toutefois, il pourrait y avoir une pénurie ou un excédent de main-d’œuvre pour certaines professions et dans certaines régions de la province.

• Chaque année entre 2017 et 2023, l’offre de main-d’œuvre devrait être supérieure à la demande, soit en moyenne 6 100 travailleurs de plus que d’emplois offerts. Bien que l’écart soit plus important en 2017 et 2018, avec une différence moyenne de 7 400 travailleurs de plus que d’emplois, la différence baisse à environ 5 600 au cours des cinq dernières années de la période envisagée, et on s’attend à ce que l’offre dépasse la demande de 5 800 travailleurs en 2023.

• Au cours de la période visée, la croissance de la demande totale de main-d’œuvre dépassera la croissance de l’offre totale de main-d’œuvre de 3 100 travailleurs. Le taux de chômage devrait culminer en 2017, puis continuer à diminuer tout au long de la période envisagée au fur et à mesure que la demande de main-d’œuvre s’accroît légèrement plus rapidement que l’offre de main-d’œuvre à partir de 2017. Dans l’ensemble, le taux de chômage devrait baisser, passant de 6,1 pour cent en 2017 à 5,8 pour cent en 2023.

Pourquoi les chiffres changent-ils?

• Au fur et à mesure que l’économie évolue, les hypothèses et données macroéconomiques qui sous-tendent le présent rapport sont mises à jour régulièrement en utilisant les meilleurs chiffres existant à chaque moment. Par exemple, les changements économiques tels que la baisse du prix du pétrole en 2014-2015 et la performance économique nationale inférieure aux prévisions ont des répercussions importantes sur le marché du travail au Manitoba, au Canada et dans le monde entier. D’autre part, chaque mise à jour du rapport couvre une nouvelle période de sept ans. De ce fait, il n’est pas recommandé de comparer directement l’approvisionnement et la demande de main-d’œuvre d’une année à l’autre.

• Veuillez veuillez consulter le chapitre 3 et l’annexe 1 pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie et les hypothèses macroéconomiques utilisées dans ce rapport.


Chapter 1: Manitoba Labour Market Outlook Summary Findings, 2017 to 2023

1.1 IntroductionIn this chapter, the summary findings from Manitoba’s custom projection are reviewed and the overall outlook for Manitoba’s labour market is presented based on a number of indicators. These include the expected number of future job openings as well as labour demand and supply by occupational group. Based on these indicators, an estimate for future training requirements and occupational and skill demands is provided.

The model used to produce Manitoba’s custom workforce outlook starts with the use of macroeconomic models of the province’s economy to create an outlook for Manitoba’s economic performance and then estimates the number and sources of workers required considering the province’s expected future economic and demographic performance. Finally, it explores possible sources for these requirements and the number of workers needed from those sources to meet these future requirements.

The possibility of labour shortages is identified by examining the supply sources to determine if it is possible to achieve the required supply from these sources. For example, the model estimates

the number of young people leaving the education system required to meet future supply needs from this source. If there is insufficient capacity to provide education and training to a sufficient number of individuals, there will be a shortage of workers.

An important difference in this approach from that adopted by other models is that the occupational projections contained in this report provide an estimated amount of immigration required to meet labour market needs, rather than setting an assumption for migration that is not directly linked to the expected future performance of the economy. Workforce demand and supply at the aggregate level adjusts over time to meet labour requirements.

The glossary of terms below describes some of the key concepts throughout the Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts report.

GlossaryJob openings = expected change in workforce demand over a specific time periodExpansion demand = determined by changes in economic performance that lead to changes in employment and the amount of excess workers required to meet normal turnover in the workforceReplacement demand = job openings created by people retiring from the labour force or dying, influenced by the aging of the populationNew entrants = people between 15 and 30 years old joining the workforce for the first time after completing their education

Deaths and retirements = these subtract from the labour forceNet in-migration = people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a jobNet other mobility = all other sources of labour force change, including people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force and changes in participation ratesNet in-mobility = net in-migration plus net other mobility, which can add to or subtract from the labour force


1.2 Manitoba’s Labour Demand

The outlook for labour demand in the economic model is determined by the expected growth of the economy, along with the impact of changing market conditions. For example, changes in the cost of labour relative to that for capital will have an effect on the demand for workers. Tightening labour markets raise wages relative to capital costs, causing employers to substitute capital for workers.

The model also considers the impact of migration on economic growth and labour market activity, as well as assumptions about trend growth in productivity that impacts the need for workers.

Labour demand in Manitoba is projected to grow to 720,000 jobs in 2023 – an increase of 53,900 jobs, through expansion and replacement demand. Over the forecast period, this means an estimated 8.1 per cent growth in labour demand, or an average of 1.1 per cent each year.

Thousands

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

640

Chart 1: Manitoba Labour Demand2017 to 2023

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

674.0

720.0

1.2.1 Sources of Labour Demand

New jobs created as a result of economic growth are referred to as expansion demand. Expansion demand is expected to be strongest in 2019 and 2020, when it is forecasted to be 8,300 and 8,800 respectively.

In addition to the expansion demand of 53,900, people exiting the labour market on account of retirements and deaths (replacement demand) will result in an additional 112,600 job openings

between 2017 and 2023. In four of the seven years over the forecast period, replacement demand is expected to be more than twice as high as the job openings expected due to expansion demand.

Overall, expansion plus replacement demand are projected to result in a total of 166,500 job openings between 2017 and 2023.


Number

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Chart 2: Total Job Openings by Source2017 to 2023

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Deaths Retirements Expansion Demand

1.2.2 Job Openings by Occupation

The occupation group with the highest number of projected job openings is sales and service at 32,000 or 19.2 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. This is followed by business, finance and administration occupations at 27,400 or 16.5 per cent; and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services at 23,800 or 14.3 per cent. Together, these three occupation groups account for 50 per cent of total projected job openings. The occupation group with the fewest projected job openings is natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with only 1,600 projected job openings over the forecast period.

Analysis of job openings by more detailed three–digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes show that within sales and service occupations, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

• cleaners

• retail salespersons

• food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations


Similarly, within the business, finance and administration occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups:

• administrative and regulatory occupations

• general office workers

• office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical

Within occupations in education, law and social, community and government services, the highest number of job openings will be for the following three occupation sub-groups:

• secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counselors

• paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services

• home care providers and educational support occupations

Refer to Appendix 3 for job openings by three-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of data pertaining to smaller occupation groups.

As Chart 3 illustrates, for all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Approximately 68 per cent of projected new job openings are due to replacement demand (retirements and deaths), which will affect recruitment in all occupation groups. Expansion demand, or new jobs that result from economic growth, will account for 32 per cent of the 166,500 total job openings over the forecast period.

Comparing occupational groups, all net gains in job openings in occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations are the result of replacement demand because expansion demand in this occupational group is negative. Sales and Service occupations (51 per cent) and Health occupations (54 per cent) have the highest share of openings due to replacement demand amongst occupational groups.

Table 1 shows projected job openings between 2017 and 2023 for the 10 major occupation groups based on the 2011 NOC codes (one-digit level). Table 2 presents the same information by more detailed occupation groupings (NOC codes at the two-digit level).


Chart 3: Occupational Groups (One-digit NOC) by Job Openings,Replacement and Expansion Demand - 2017 to 2023

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

Sales and service occupations

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

Health occupations

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

Business, finance and administration occupations

Management occupations

Number of Workers

Expansion Demand Replacement Demand


Table 1: Job openings by One-digit NOC and Source - 2017 to 2023

Expansion Replacement Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

Management occupations 3,500 19,900 23,400 85.2%


8,100 19,300 27,400 70.6%


2,200 5,500 7,700 71.7%

Health occupations 8,500 9,900 18,400 53.8%


9,900 13,900 23,800 58.3%


1,500 2,000 3,500 58.5%

Sales and service occupations 15,600 16,400 32,000 51.1%


3,600 17,500 21,100 82.7%

Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations

-200 1,800 1,600 115.0%


1,300 6,200 7,500 83.0%

Total 54,000 112,600 166,500 67.6%


Table 2: Job openings by Two-digit NOC and Source - 2017 to 2023

Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Senior management occupations 500 1,900 2,400

Specialized middle management occupations 1,800 5,400 7,200

Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services

2,100 5,300 7,400

Middle management occupations in trades, transport, production and utilities

-900 7,200 6,300

Professional occupations in business and finance 1,000 2,700 3,700

Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations

2,600 7,400 10,000

Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations

600 1,500 2,100

Office support occupations 2,900 5,500 8,400

Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

900 2,300 3,200

Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences

1,200 2,600 3,800

Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences

1,000 2,900 3,900

Professional occupations in nursing 3,100 3,700 6,800

Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 1,300 1,500 2,800

Technical occupations in health 1,500 2,100 3,600

Assisting occupations in support of health services 2,600 2,700 5,300

Professional occupations in education services 2,700 4,700 7,400

Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services

1,600 2,500 4,100

Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services

2,700 2,800 5,500

Occupations in front-line public protection services 500 700 1,200

Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations

2,500 3,100 5,600

Continued on next page.


Expansion Demand

Replacement demand

Total hiring demand

Professional occupations in art and culture 700 1,000 1,700

Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

800 1,000 1,800

Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations

1,000 1,800 2,800

Service supervisors and specialized service occupations

2,500 2,400 4,900

Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade

2,600 3,200 5,800

Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations

2,900 3,200 6,100

Sales support occupations 2,300 1,300 3,600

Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c.* 4,400 4,400 8,800

Industrial, electrical and construction trades 300 6,000 6,300

Maintenance and equipment operation trades 900 4,200 5,100

Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers

500 1,200 1,700

Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations

1,500 5,100 6,600

Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations

300 1,000 1,300

Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production

100 600 700

Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production

-700 9,000 200

Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers

300 300 600

Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators

200 1,500 1,700

Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers

900 2,000 2,900

Assemblers in manufacturing -300 1,500 1,200

Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 500 1,100 1,600

*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


1.2.3 Job Openings by Skills, Education and Training

It is projected that of the 166,500 forecasted job openings, approximately 103,400 positions (62 per cent) will require some post-secondary education and training (e.g. college, trade certification, university).

These positions are managerial and professional occupations, classified at NOC 2011 skill level 0/A, or technical and skilled occupations at NOC 2011 skill level B.

The remaining 38 per cent of projected job openings, or 63,100 positions, may not require

post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements. The majority of these job openings are intermediate, clerical and operator occupations (skill level C), which usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training. Elemental and labour occupations (skill level D), which usually require on-the-job training, make up a smaller portion.

Chart 4 shows the total job openings outlook between NOC skill levels 0 and A combined, B, C and D for 2017 to 2023.

Chart 4: Manitoba Job Openings by Skill Level2017 to 2023

47,100,28%

49,600, 30%

53,800,32%

16,000, 10%

Managerial and Professional Usually Requiring a University Education

Technical and Skilled Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship Training

Intermediate, Clerical and Operator Usually Requiring Secondary School and/or Occupation Specific Training

Elemental and Labouring Usually Providing On the Job Training


Replacement demand is projected to be highest for the subgroup of managerial occupations at NOC Skill Level 0 with 85.2 per cent, while almost half of Elemental and Labouring occupation job openings will be due to expansion (48.9 per cent).

In terms of total openings, the largest numbers of expansion demand-driven jobs are expected in skill level B and C at 14,500 and 16,500 respectively (refer to Table 3).

Table 3: Job openings by NOC Skill Level Requirements, 2017 to 2023

NOC Skill Levels Expansion demand

Replacement demand

Total jobopenings

Replacementdemand %

NOC 0/A - Managerial and Professional

15,100 38,700 53,800 71.9%

NOC B - Technical and Skilled 14,500 35,100 49,600 70.7%

NOC C - Intermediate, Clerical and operator

16,500 30,600 47,100 65.0%

NOC D - Elemental and Labouring 7,200 10,700 17,900 51.1%

Total 53,900 112,600 166,500 67.6%

1.2.4 High-demand occupations by Industry Sector

Manitoba’s occupational forecasting model estimates the number and sources of workers required to address the expected future economic and demographic performance of the province through the application of macroeconomic models. The projected demand for workers is also impacted by changing market conditions, for example the cost of labour relative to that for capital.

Table 4 shows the occupations in each industry sector with the highest number of expected job openings created over the forecast period through both changes in economic performance (expansion demand) and through normal turnover in the workforce through retirements and deaths (replacement demand).

Readers are cautioned against drawing precise conclusions based on individual occupations or industry groups. The projection results should

instead be used to observe general trends and relative comparisons, rather than to cite precise numerical forecasts.

While these projections provide an average of the overall Manitoba jobs outlook, they are not able to reflect granular, local level labour market realities or regional, niche labour market scenarios. Occupational demand may differ across Manitoba regions and communities.

Finally, there may be unique conditions within specific occupations that are not captured in the analysis, and economic and demographic assumptions and conditions may change over time.

Refer to Appendix 4 for job openings by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data, particularly for smaller occupation groups.


Table 4: Top Occupations by job openings and sector, 2017-2023

Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings

Management

Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,800

Managers in agriculture 2,800

Restaurant and food service managers 1,200

Manufacturing managers 1,000

Corporate sales managers 900

Business, Finance and

Administration

Administrative assistants 3,300

General office support workers 3,000

Administrative officers 3,000

Accounting and related clerks 1,800

Financial auditors and accountants 1,500

Natural and applied sciences

and related occupations

Information systems analysts and consultants 1,100

Computer programmers and interactive media developers 600

Computer network technicians 600

Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 500

User support technicians 400

Health occupations

Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 6,600

Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 4,600

Licensed practical nurses 1,000

Specialist physicians 700

Pharmacists 500

Occupations in education,

law and social, community and

government services

Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3,600

Early childhood educators and assistants 2,800

Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 2,800

Social and community service workers 2,200

Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 1,900

Continued on next page.


Sector Occupation Number of Job Openings

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and

sport

Musicians and singers 400

Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 400

Graphic designers and illustrators 300

Authors and writers 300

Painters, sculptors and other visual artists 300

Sales and service

occupations

Retail salespersons 4,600

Light duty cleaners 2,700

Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,600

Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 2,500

Cooks 2,100

Trades, transport and

equipment operators

and related occupations

Transport truck drivers 3,800

Carpenters 1,600

Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 1,400

Material handlers 1,300

Welders and related machine operators 1,200

Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 600

Underground production and development miners 300

Supervisors, mining and quarrying 200

Fishermen/women 100

General farm workers 100

Occupations in

manufacturing and utilities

Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing 800

Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 500

Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers 500

Power engineers and power systems operators 500

Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing 400


1.3 Manitoba’s Labour Supply

1.3.1 Labour Force Outlook

The occupational forecasting model uses population estimates produced by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics combined with projected age-specific labour force participation rates produced by SECINC to project Manitoba’s labour force. The model estimates Manitoba’s labour force at 674,900 people in 2016.

Manitoba has observed growth in the labour force over the past 10 years and is projected to see continued growth throughout the seven-year projection period.

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow by 50,900 people (7.5 per cent) to 725,800 people by 2023. This represents an average annual growth rate of 1.0 per cent, or an average of 7,300 persons per year.

Within the projection period, Manitoba’s labour force is expected to grow at the lowest rate in 2018 and 2022 (slightly below 1 per cent), while sitting between 1.0 and 1.1 per cent over the remainder of the forecast period. This slowed growth compared to previous years reflects an increase in the proportion of population in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates.

Thousands

740

730

720

710

700

690

680

670

660

650

640

Chart 5: Manitoba Labour Force,Estimated and Projected - 2016 to 2023

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

674.9 (e) 681.9 (f)

725.8 (f)


1.3.2 Labour Force Participation

Manitoba’s overall labour force participation rate is projected to decline by 0.6 percentage points between 2017 and 2023, to 66.9 per cent.

This slight decline reflects the combined effects of a recent downward trend in participation for more than half of the age-sex cohorts, particularly among age groups with the highest participation, and the increasing proportion of elders in the labour force population.

Per cent67.8

67.7

67.6

67.5

67.4

67.3

67.2

67.1

67.0

66.9

66.8

Chart 6: Manitoba Labour Force Participation Rate, Estimated and Projected - 2016 to 2023

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

67.6

66.9

67.0


1.3.3 Sources of Labour Supply

Over the forecast period, Manitoba’s labour market supply outlook estimates that approximately 92,500 new entrants, 38,000 net in-migrants and 33,000 net other mobility workers (for a total 163,500 workers) will be required due to people leaving the labour force due to deaths or retirements and to fill new jobs created as a result of economic growth. With 163,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,600 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 50,900 persons.

The components of the projected change in Manitoba’s labour force are:

• new entrants (persons entering the labour force for the first time), which add to the labour force

• deaths and retirements, which subtract from the labour force

• net in-mobility (net in-migration plus net other mobility), which can add or subtract from the labour force

• Net in-migration refers to people moving into or out of a geographic area to take or find a job.

• Net other mobility includes all other sources of change in the labour force, such as people changing occupations, workers re-entering the labour force (e.g. after an illness) and changes in participation rates caused by increased wage rates or social factors (e.g. increased desire for people to enter the labour force).

New entrants remain a consistent and significant component of the estimated supply over the forecast period, averaging about 13,200 per year. The labour force is projected to lose approximately 16,100 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period is projected to be required to meet job opening requirements.


Number of Workers

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000

Chart 7: Sources of Labour Force Change2017 to 2023

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

New EntrantsNet In-MigrationNet Other In-Mobility Retirements & Deaths Labour Force Change

Per cent Per cent

67.6

67.4

67.2

67.0

66.8

6.2

6.1

6.0

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

Chart 8: Participation Rate vs. Unemployment Rate2017 to 2023

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)


1.4 Gaps: Labour Demand less Labour Supply

Overall, the labour market is expected to remain generally balanced over the projection period, meaning the supply of labour will be adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages may exist for certain occupations and in local labour markets.

Table 4 shows the gap between labour demand and labour supply for each year between 2017 and 2023.

In all seven years of the projection period, labour supply in Manitoba is expected to be higher than

labour demand. This gap between the supply of labour and labour demand averages 6,200 workers per year. The expected gap is highest for 2017 and 2018, before closing slightly to an average of 5,700 workers over the remainder of the forecast period.

For each year of the forecast period, the gap between labour demand and supply as a percentage of the total labour force is small (ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 per cent) and therefore, the labour market is expected to remain relatively balanced.

Table 5: Labour Demand and Supply Gap Indicators, 2017 to 2023

Variable 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Labour Force Demand 674,000 681,500 689,800 698,600 705,800 711,800 720,000

Labour Force Supply 681,900 688,400 695,900 703,600 711,000 718,000 725,800

Excess Supply -7900 -6900 -6100 -5000 -5200 -6200 -5800

Labour shortages by occupation groups

Labour markets are expected to remain balanced for each of the 10 major occupational groups (one-digit NOC level). For all occupational groups, supply will exceed demand in all years of the projection period.

It should be noted that this does not mean that shortages or surpluses may not exist for individual occupations within the broad occupation groups.

The labour supply forecasting model is based on the assumption that the labour force for an occupation in the long run will be determined by the demand for the occupation. Labour

supply adjusts to labour demand in various ways, including inter-occupation mobility and increased labour force participation rate (net other mobility).

Between 2017 and 2023, net other mobility is forecasted to add 33,000 persons to Manitoba’s labour supply. In other words, the model forecasts that the increased demand for labour over the next few years will be partly met with an increase in the number of Manitobans re-entering the labour force (higher labour force participation rates) and Manitobans moving to occupations in higher demand.

If these assumptions are not met, more labour shortages could be expected.


Occupations with significant labour market tightness

MethodologyThe occupational model used to create Manitoba’s labour market occupational forecasts estimates the supply requirements needed to meet the demand for individual occupations. Accordingly, there are no significant shortages or persistent surpluses for the occupations in these projections and analysts should examine the estimated requirements to see if it is possible to achieve them.

To assist in identifying potential areas of future labour market tightness, a ranking approach is employed to provide an indication of the “relative” risk or difficulty across occupations of obtaining their estimated supply requirements.

This relative risk is referred to as a supply risk and originates from the fact that the supply requirements estimated by the models may not be forthcoming in reality.

This ranking is not intended to indicate that an occupation with a relatively high supply risk will not obtain the required supply. Rather, it signals that there is a higher risk relative to other occupations.

Four ranking measures are used to determine the supply risk. One focuses on demand, one on supply, one on the demand supply balance and the other is a combined rank that is a weighted average of the other ranks.

The demand measure focuses on “demand pressure” as measured by the number of job openings for an occupation divided by the size of the occupation’s labour force in the previous year, which is similar to the labour force growth rate for the occupation. If the demand growth for an occupation is high relative to that for other occupations, it will receive a higher rank as it will likely require relatively more effort to find the workers needed.

The supply measure focuses on migration and is measured as the ratio of required net in-migration and the occupation’s labour force in the previous year. Occupations where supply requirements are largely met through migration may be at risk if these requirements are not accommodated through additional immigration or if Canadian workers do not wish or are not available to move to the province.

The third measure is the difference between an occupation’s actual and normal unemployment rate, the unemployment rate gap. Occupations with negative unemployment rate gaps reflect tighter labour markets and vice-versa.

There are three ranks numbered from 1 to 3 for each measure:

• Rank of 1: a situation where there are more than sufficient workers available to meet demand. Demand pressure is lower than normal, there is less reliance than normal on migrants to fill jobs, and the unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the normal rate. It should be relatively easy to find workers;

• Rank of 2: represents a normal market situation where organizations can rely on their traditional methods for obtaining workers. Demand pressure is normal, organizations may have to rely on migrants to meet supply, but this situation is not different from what they have faced in the past, and the unemployment rate gap is small; and

• Rank of 3: a type of market situation where demand pressure is quite strong, more emphasis than normal must be placed on organizations to access migrants to meet their worker requirements and the unemployment rate is below its normal rate. It will be relatively more difficult to find workers.

It should be noted that it is important to consider the size of the occupations when using the supply risk results, as occupations with small sizes can produce ranks that may be misleading.


For example, an occupation with a labour force of only 20 that sees its labour force increase to 40 shows a 100 per cent increase as the demand pressure measure. This would certainly put it near the top of occupations for supply risk through the demand pressure rank.

The data provided in this report is accordingly restricted to occupations where the employment is 150.

ResultsLabour market tightness may exist temporarily in an occupation for only a few consecutive years, for example because of anticipated major projects, and may disappear after completion. In some occupations however, labour market tightness may persist over a longer period of time, potentially due to rising numbers of retirements and deaths as the population ages. In order to identify occupations where more research may be required to address potential long-term supply risks, occupations with a weighted average combined rank of 3 in at least 2 years of the 7-year forecast period are

highlighted in Table 5. For these occupations, the weighted average of the supply, demand and unemployment rate gap measures exceeds 2.5. As noted above, only occupations with at least 150 individuals employed in 2016 have been considered for the analysis. These occupations are likely to display a higher degree of demand pressure and relatively higher difficulty filling job openings over the forecast period compared to other occupations.

In terms of industry sectors, natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations display the highest degree of relative labour market tightness over the forecast period, with 37.5 per cent of occupations showing high demand pressures in at least one year, followed by health occupations (19.4 per cent) and trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations with 15.0 per cent.

Refer to Appendix 4 for labour market tightness rankings for each of the 7 years of the forecast period by four-digit NOC codes, recalling the caution around interpretation of the data.


Table 6: Occupations experiencing Labour Market Tightness, 2017 to 2023

Occupational group Occupation

Business, finance and administration

Property administrators

Health information management occupations

Natural and applied sciences

Geological and mineral technologists and technicians

Construction estimators

Health

Chiropractors

Medical labouratory technologists

Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c.

Education, law and social, community and government services

Program officers unique to government

Firefighters

Occupations in art, culture recreation and

sport

Journalists

Painters, sculptors and other visual artists

Artisans and craftspersons

Sales and service Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners

Trades

Carpenters

Machine fitters

Electrical mechanics

Manufacturing and Utilities

Other wood processing machine operators

Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing

Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers

Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing

Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers

*n.e.c. – not elsewhere classified


Chapter 2: Economic and Labour Market Outlooks

2.1 IntroductionEconomic and demographic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), domestic consumption, commodity prices, population and immigration serve as inputs for the occupational model that is used to generate custom occupational forecasts for Manitoba. This chapter provides a review of the economic and labour market outlook from internal and external forecasting sources.

2.2 International, National and Provincial Economies

2.2.1 International and National Outlook

Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade according to the IMF World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.5 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018.

Stronger activity and expectations of more robust global demand, coupled with agreed upon restrictions on oil supply, have helped commodity prices recover from their troughs in early 2016. Financial markets are buoyant and expect continued policy support in China and fiscal expansion and deregulation in the United States. Structural problems—such as low productivity growth and high income inequality— are likely to persist. Inward-looking policies threaten global economic integration and the cooperative global economic order, which have served the world economy, especially emerging market and developing economies, well.

Economic activity gained some momentum in the second half of 2016, especially in advanced economies. Growth picked up in the United States as firms grew more confident about future demand, and inventories started contributing positively to growth (after five quarters of drag). Growth also remained solid in the United Kingdom, where spending proved resilient in the aftermath of the June 2016 referendum in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit). Activity

surprised on the upside in Japan thanks to strong net exports, as well as in euro area countries, such as Germany and Spain, as a result of strong domestic demand. Economic performance across emerging market and developing economies has remained mixed.

According to the Bank of Canada Outlook Report of April 2017, the US economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace. Consumption growth is expected to remain solid, supported by anticipated tax cuts and a strong labour market. Residential investment, meanwhile, is projected to grow at a robust pace, given rising household income and demographic demand. The Bank of Canada report flags the potential implications of a rise in trade protectionism by the United States. The report notes that more-restrictive trade policies are possible, increasing uncertainty. Additional negative effects on productivity and potential growth are also possible should there be a reversal of the process of globalization—particularly the unwinding of global value chains.

In Canada, a modest recovery in potential output growth is expected as the effects of the oil price shock dissipate.

Potential output growth is projected to increase gradually from a trough of 1.3 per cent in 2016–17 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.


Relative to the previous annual assessment in April 2016, the Bank’s estimates for potential output growth over the projection period have been revised down. The revision is explained by slower-than-anticipated growth in trend labour productivity resulting from the pronounced weakness in business investment over 2015 and 2016. This slower growth is only partially offset by a modest upward revision to trend labour input growth, reflecting higher levels of immigration.

Real GDP growth is projected to continue to slow beyond the first half of 2017 and become more balanced across demand categories, with larger contributions from exports as well as public and private investment and smaller contributions from residential investment and consumption.

The forecast for real GDP growth in 2017 has been revised up following stronger-than-anticipated household expenditures, particularly residential investment, as well as stronger-than-expected spending activity in the oil and gas sector.

2.2.2 Provincial Review and Outlook

The number of large economic, financial and commodity market events with global implications has increased in recent years due to a broader integration of trade. The integration provides benefits, but at the same time exposes countries to economic and financial volatilities. In addition, the spillovers from global shocks are enduring longer than expected, generating uncertainty and risks to the outlook. The consistent strength in several major economic indicators is lifting consumer and business confidence, and leading to a modest improvement in the outlook. The current outlook incorporates the economic momentum that is building in the U.S. and in Canada.

The Manitoba economy has a relatively well-balanced industrial base. The majority of industrial sectors in the province are medium–sized, each contributing over 5 per cent to total value-added output. This provides a noticeable level of economic stability. Over the last 20 years, the compounded average annual growth in real GDP, real exports and employment was the most stable in Canada.

Economic forecasts for Manitoba were revised up from earlier this year. The Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts of May 5, 2017 indicates that Manitoba’s real GDP is expected to increase by 2.0 per cent in 2017, remaining unchanged from the April 2017 forecast. Canadian growth was expected to increase to 2.3 per cent in 2017, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the previous forecast. Employment is forecast to grow by 0.8 per cent in 2017, ranking Manitoba fourth best among the provinces and tied with Alberta and Prince Edward Island. Canada’s employment growth is forecast at 1.3 per cent. In 2017, Manitoba’s unemployment rate is forecast to be the second-lowest in Canada.

In 2018, Manitoba’s real GDP is projected to increase by 2.0 per cent, the same as Canada. Employment is forecast to remain the same in Manitoba, slightly below Canada’s 0.9 per cent increase, ranking Manitoba fourth again and tied with Saskatchewan and Quebec. Manitoba’s unemployment rate is forecast at 5.9 per cent, ranking Manitoba second in Canada and tied with Saskatchewan.

Uncertainty about policy choices taken by the EU regarding Brexit and by the new U.S. administration regarding personal and corporate taxation, deregulation, international trade and infrastructure spending combined with the lingering effects from past shocks present upside and downside risks to the outlook.

The Conference Board Provincial Outlook (Winter 2017) notes that Manitoba has led the provinces in average annual GDP growth over the last 10 years, but its economy will advance at a more moderate pace over the forecast period. Weighing on growth is metal mining, which will see annual output decline by more than 10 per cent over the next three years. However, the manufacturing, transportation, and insurance sectors are sound, insulating the province from any large fluctuations in output.

Employment will grow slightly in Manitoba this year, bouncing back from a net loss of nearly 3,000 jobs last year. Unfortunately, it will be one of the few areas in which consumers’ fortunes


will improve. Although wages and salaries will still advance faster than inflation, the gap will narrow, stifling growth in real disposable income. That will leave households with less room for new spending this year. The lion’s share of new spending will go toward necessities; more than half of the 0.9 per cent increase in household consumption in 2017 will come from housing and related services. And, while spending will pick up somewhat in 2018, sluggish growth in real income will cause many Manitobans to delay major purchases. Consumer reluctance to boost their spending will show in the retail trade sector, which will struggle to post growth above 1 per cent this year.

Total private investment will also weaken as construction of Manitoba Hydro’s large-scale projects in the north winds down, causing declines in business investment in non-residential structures in each of the next four years. On the other hand, investment both in residential structures and in machinery and equipment is expected to perform well, offsetting some of these declines.

2.2.3 Major Construction and Investment Projects in Manitoba

The Buildforce Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for 2017-2026 describes a rise to a plateau at record levels of total construction employment. Construction activity in Manitoba is expected to reach a peak in 2017, following another very strong year of growth. Past the peak, the current non-residential cycle, driven by multi-year major utility and transmission projects, nears the end and a new modest residential cycle begins. Maintaining capacity while contending with steadily rising retirements keeps pressure on industry to recruit and train workers.

The April 2017 Manitoba Budget states that capital investment growth in Manitoba moderated to 1.4 per cent in 2016, down from 5.0 per cent in 2015. An increase in expenditures on non-residential structures was offset by a reduction in spending on machinery and equipment, and residential properties.

Due to completion of several major building projects, investment in non-residential structures slowed to 8.7 per cent in 2016 compared to 17.6 per cent in 2015. Building permits information indicates that a rebound in investments is well underway with construction of the $400 million True North Square, a mixed-use development complex in downtown Winnipeg, and other commercial building projects.

According to Statistics Canada’s investment intentions survey, private sector capital spending is expected to increase by 2.0 per cent in 2017. Capital spending in the transportation and warehousing sector is expected to increase by 13 per cent or $160 million, while spending in the mining and petroleum sector is expected to increase by 26 per cent or $110 million. Investment in the wholesale trade sector is expected to decline by 56 per cent in 2017 after increasing by 29 per cent annually over the last five years.

The Conference Board 2017 Manitoba Outlook reports mining and oil and gas production will experience further changes. The metal mining industry will lose a third of its total production by 2020, a result of the closure of Hudbay’s 777 and Reed mines. The industry benefited last year from the opening of Hudbay’s Lalor mine, but no new mining construction is planned over the forecast horizon.

Oil and gas production will see improvement in the province. The Bakken Formation consists largely of untapped resources of lighter crude, which is more desirable than the heavy crudes that are more common across the Prairies. As a result, oil production will gain 2.5 per cent this year, but output will remain mainly stable over the four years that follow.

2.2.4 SECINC’s Occupation Model: Underlying Economic Scenario for Manitoba’s 2017 Custom Projection

The performance of the economy, as measured by various economic and demographic indicators, is the main driver of the SECINC occupation model’s workforce outlook. Economic growth drives labour demand, while population and age distribution have influence over labour supply.


Projected growth rates from 2017 to 2023 for some of the key indicators utilized to produce Manitoba’s custom projection are shown in Table 5. Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS), Manitoba Finance, Manitoba Education and Training and Manitoba Hydro assisted with the verification of macro-economic data utilized by the SECINC model to produce this labour market projection.

Table 7: Selected key Economic growth Indicators - 2017 to 2023

Per cent Change (%)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Real GDP ($Millions) 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5

Hourly Labour Income 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0

Real Hourly Labour Productivity 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4

Retail Sales 0.6 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.5

Personal Income 3.0 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.6

2.3 National and Provincial Labour Markets: Current Status

2.3.1 National Labour Market

The Conference Board of Canada’s Spring Outlook report notes an improved employment scenario in Canada since their last forecast, a result of the jobs rally between December 2016 and March of this year. Over the first 11 months of 2016, the economy created 180,000 jobs. While not a bad performance, all of these net jobs were part-time. But starting in December, the jobs market moved into high gear, gaining 210,000 full-time jobs in just four months and reversing the worrying trend toward part-time employment. Despite a slowdown projected for the remainder of the year, 2017 as a whole is expected to see a gain of 223,000 new jobs. That is almost 70 per cent higher than the average annual gain over the last three years.

Many of the new jobs are in high-paying industries. While the job gains have largely been in the service sector, there is a myth that all service sector jobs are low-paying jobs. More than a quarter of these job gains over the last

year have been in finance, insurance, and real estate and in professional, scientific, and technical services—industries that pay higher-than-average wages. Another sector recording significant gains was public administration, likely the result of increased funding from the federal government’s infrastructure plan. Also, driven by rising demand from an aging population, the health care and social assistance sectors have experienced solid gains. The goods producing sector, however, continued to shed jobs, as it has since 2012.

Unfortunately, employment growth is expected to taper off in the later part of this year. Nearly 250,000 individuals retired last year—almost twice the 134,000 net new jobs created. As population aging progresses, the retirement rate will continue to rise, further limiting labour force and employment growth.

The labour force is set to increase by just 160,000 people per year over the next three years, a little better than half the pace recorded in the decade leading up to the recession. Overall, it is expected that the economy will add just 170,000 jobs in 2018.


Despite the impressive job growth over the last four months, wage gains remain weak. In March, year-over-year gains in the average weekly wage were just 1.1 per cent, well below the rate of inflation. Overall wage growth is expected to continue to be underwhelming throughout this year. And with overall inflation forecast to run at 2.3 per cent, wages will decline in real terms in 2017. Although wage growth should improve next year, real wage gains will remain below their average for the last decade.

U.S. employment projectionsAccording to the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics Employment Projections: 2014-2024, healthcare occupations and industries are expected to have the fastest employment growth and will add the most jobs between 2014 and 2024. With the increase in the proportion of the population in older age groups, more people in the labour force will be entering prime retirement age. As a result, the labour force participation rate is projected to decrease and labour force growth to slow. This slowdown of labour force growth is expected, in turn, to lead to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.2 per cent annually over the decade. This economic growth is projected to generate 9.8 million new jobs--a 6.5-per cent increase between 2014 and 2024.

The civilian labour force is projected to reach 163.8 million in 2024, growing at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. The labour force continues to age. The median age of the labour force was 40.3 in 2004, 41.9 in 2014, and is projected to be 42.4 in 2024. At the same time, the overall labour force participation rate is projected to decrease from 62.9 per cent in 2014 to 60.9 per cent in 2024. The labour force participation rate for youth (ages 16 to 24) is projected to decrease from 55.0 per cent in 2014 to 49.7 per cent in 2024. The youth age group is projected to make up 11.3 per cent of the civilian labour force in 2024 as compared with 13.7 per cent in 2014. In contrast, the labour force participation rate for the 65-and-older age group is projected to increase from 18.6 per cent in 2014 to 21.7 per cent in 2024. This older age group is projected to represent 8.2 per cent of the civilian labour force in 2024 as compared with 5.4 per cent in 2014.

Service-providing sectors are projected to capture 94.6 per cent of all the jobs added between 2014 and 2024. Of these 9.3 million new service sector jobs, 3.8 million will be added to the healthcare and social assistance major sector. The healthcare and social assistance major sector is expected to become the largest employing major sector during the projections decade, overtaking the state and local government major sector and the professional and business services major sector. Healthcare and social assistance is projected to increase its employment share from 12.0 per cent in 2014 to 13.6 per cent in 2024. Construction is projected to add 790,400 jobs by 2024. Even with these additional jobs, employment in the construction major sector is not projected to return to the 2006 peak. Manufacturing employment is projected to decline at a 0.7 per cent rate annually, a more moderate decline than the 1.6 per cent rate experienced in the prior decade.

2.3.2 Manitoba’s Labour Market

Manitoba has the most stable labour market in Canada with modest changes in annual growth. Manitoba’s unemployment rate is generally one of the three lowest among provinces.

In addition, over the past seven years, the labour market was balanced, with new jobs created at about the same rate as new workers entering the market. This balance is reflected in a stable unemployment rate within a relatively narrow range.

Consistent with strong population growth, and for the first time in its history, Manitoba’s working age population has now surpassed the million person mark with a labour force of over 676,000 workers.

In the first three months of 2017, the labour force averaged 670,200 workers. Over the same period, the unemployment rate averaged 5.9 per cent, second lowest among provinces and below the 7.1 per cent national average.

As a result of the slow growth in international and interprovincial demand for goods and services, employment has declined from an average of 636,200 jobs in 2015 to a 12-month rolling


average of 633,600 jobs in 2016, which represents a decline of 2,600 jobs after gains of 9,700 jobs in 2015. The service sector is the most impacted and has lost 6,500 workers. This includes 2,900 jobs lost in transportation and warehousing, 2,700 job losses in wholesale and retail trade, 2,100 lost jobs in the educational services and a contraction of 1,600 in public administration. The goods-producing sector in contrast gained 3,900 jobs over the same period. While low energy prices have led to 12 consecutive months of job losses in Manitoba’s mining, oil and gas sector in the previous year, these losses stopped by February 2016, and the sector recorded modest gains of 500 jobs over 2016. Other goods-producing sectors showing employment gains in 2016 include: Utilities (+1,600), Construction (+1,500) and Agriculture with 1,100 jobs added. The only goods-producing sector recording job losses between 2015 and 2016 was Manufacturing, with 1,000 fewer jobs in 2016.

Similarly to Canada, the labour market in the province has been gaining strength in the latter part of 2016 and is continuing to do so into 2017.

Private sector jobs remained consistent between 2015 and 2016 and accounted for 60.8 per cent of positions, while the public sector recorded a decrease of 2,600 jobs.

Over the last five years, full-time employment grew by 2.0 per cent, while part-time employment increased 1.7 per cent.

From 2012 to 2016, the natural and applied sciences occupational group experienced the greatest percentage increase in employment at 13.7 per cent, followed by occupations in education, law and social, community and government services (12.7 per cent) and natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations with an increase of 11.8 per cent.

Between 2015 and 2016, Manitoba’s labour force expanded by 0.1 per cent or 800 persons. Over the last five years, the labour force has gained 18,300 persons, a change of 2.8 per cent.

Manitoba’s unemployment rate was 5.6 per cent in 2015 and increased to 6.1 per cent in 2016. Over the last five years, the unemployment rate has averaged 5.6 per cent, below the national average of 7.0 per cent in the same period.

Manitoba’s average participation rate decreased from 68.3 per cent in 2015 to 67.6 per cent in 2016, a difference of 0.7 percentage points. Manitoba ranked fourth among the provinces, and above Canada’s participation rate of 65.7 per cent.

The Manitoba Finance Survey of Economic Forecasts shows an expected 0.8 per cent growth in employment this year and in 2018 respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.0 per cent in 2017 and is anticipated to fall to 5.9 per cent in 2018.

Table 8: Manitoba Labour Force Statistics (Working Age Population Age 15+) - 2012 to 2016

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Labour Force (000s) 656,600 661,500 662,100 674,100 674,900

Employment (000s) 621,600 625,800 626,500 636,200 633,600

Participation Rate (%) 68.9 68.6 67.8 68.3 67.6

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.1


2.4 PopulationOver the past decade, Manitoba’s demographic changes have been dramatic. As of January 1, 2017, Manitoba’s total population was estimated at 1,328,346. Manitoba’s population grew by 21,859 persons (1.67 per cent) between January 2016 and January 2017.

Once again, a large portion of the province’s estimated population gain in 2016 was the result of immigration. Net international migration to Manitoba for 2016 was 15,135 individuals.

Some of the gain in the population through immigration is offset through interprovincial migration. Manitoba recorded an estimated net loss of 6,659 residents to other provinces in 2016.

Overall, Manitoba recorded a net migration gain of 15,054 people over 2016. The remaining increase of 6,800 persons was due a natural increase in population (more births than deaths).

Chart 10 shows Manitoba’s total population estimate for 2016 and annual total population projections for each year from 2017 to 2023.

According to the projections, Manitoba’s total population will increase to 1,451,400 in 2023. This represents a total gain of 123,100 people or 9.3 per cent over 2016.

Between 2017 and 2023, Manitoba’s population is projected to increase by an average of 17,600 people annually, yielding an average annual growth rate of 1.3 per cent. The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics estimates that the average annual growth rate over the previous six years, from 2011 to 2016, was also 1.3 per cent. The natural increase is expected to add 46,600 people, while total net migration is expected to add 74,000 to the total population.

Thousands

1,500

1,450

1,400

1,350

1,300

1,250

Chart 9: Manitoba Population, Estimated and Projected - 2016 to 2023

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

1328.3

1451.4


It is projected that by 2023, most age groups will record increases in their population levels relative to the 2016 estimates. As illustrated by Chart 12, the 65-plus age group is expected to show the largest gain, increasing by 46,000 (22.9 per cent).

The 35 to 44 and 25 to 34 age groups are also projected to have strong gains, with increases of 15.8 per cent and 11.0 per cent respectively. One age group is anticipated to record population declines over the seven-year projection period: the 45 to 54 age group is projected to decrease by 1,000 people; the 15 to 24 age group is expected to show no change.

Thousands150

100

50

0

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er 1

0-4

5-9

10-

14

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

30-

34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65-

69

70-

74

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79

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84

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Chart 10: Manitoba Age Distribution, Estimated and Projected - 2016 to 2023

2023 2016

Age group

Thousands

60

40

20

0

-20

Chart 11: Manitoba Age Distribution Change2016 to 2023

Age0 to 14

Age15 to 24

Age25 to 34

Age35 to 44

Age45 to 54

Age55 to 64

Age65 +

+27

+15

+27

+6

+46

0

-1


Chapter 3: SECINC Forecasting Model3.1 Model Summary of Methodology and Assumptions

The labour market outlook estimates in this report are based on SECINC’s occupational forecasting model, which includes macroeconomic, industrial and occupational models. These models are produced externally by senior economists at SECINC using international best practices in economic and labour market forecasting.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates certain major projects to capture current and upcoming economic activity and the subsequent labour market needs driven by these industry initiatives. For Manitoba’s custom projection, SECINC’s model used qualitative data collection, analysis and reporting by Manitoba government departments and Manitoba sector councils for proposed industry initiatives and current economic development activities.

Key economic indicators, including GDP, investment, consumer price index, income, employment, labour productivity, capital stock and housing starts are incorporated into the model. For Manitoba’s custom projection, GDP and employment growth assumptions supplied by SECINC are aligned, where feasible, with Manitoba Finance’s averaging of key private sector economic forecasts. Manitoba’s custom projection incorporates over 1,500 variables.

SECINC’s macroeconomic model incorporates 70 individual industry clusters. Economic and industry growth drive employment demand for each unique industry. Occupational employment demand is based on expected employment in the industries with these occupations.

Occupational labour supply and its components of change are primarily driven by demographic shifts and economic performance. For Manitoba’s custom projection, labour force participation rates were forecasted based on assumptions about Manitoba’s labour force supply, including detailed demographic modelling by age and sex.

The SECINC occupational model is based on the assumption that, in the long run, the labour force for an occupation will be determined by the demand for that occupation. In the short run, there will be deviations between the growth rate in supply and demand because of mobility restrictions, such as the time required to attract workers to the occupation either from other occupations or through the education and training system. Deviations also occur when attempting to get workers to move from a different geographic area.

A further restriction placed on the adjustment of the labour force for an occupation is that employers requiring the occupation must compete with each other and with other occupations to gain a share of the economy’s overall labour force. The latter variable is produced in the macroeconomic models. The ability to compete for additional supply of an occupation is driven by the occupation’s share of overall labour requirements in the economy. For a given occupation, the higher its requirements compared to other occupations, the larger its share of the economy’s overall labour force.

For further information about the methodology, please contact the Economic Analysis and Research Unit at [email protected] or 204-945-8836.


APPENDICES

• Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2016 to 2023

• Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011 level, Supply and Demand, 2016 to 2023

• Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC level, Total 2017 to 2023

• Appendix 4: Job Openings at Four-digit NOC level, Total 2017-2023


Appendix 1: Components of Manitoba’s Future Labour Force, 2016 to 2023

2016 2017 2019 2021 2023 2016 to2023

Per cent Change

Demographics:

Population Level 1,330,800 1,347,300 1,381,100 1,416,100 1,451,400 120,600 9.1%

Natural Increase (births-deaths)

6,100 6,300 6,600 6,800 6,800 700 11.5%

Total net In Migration 10,000 10,200 10,500 10,800 10,800 800 8.0%

Immigration 13,500 13,100 13,100 13,100 13,100 -400 -3.0%

Net Interprovincial Migration

-2,400 -2,300 -2,100 -2,000 -2,000 400 -16.7

The Labour Market:

Source Population 999,000 1,010,700 1,034,400 1,059,000 1,085,200 86,200 8.6%

Labour Force 674,900 681,900 695,900 711,000 725,800 50,900 7.5%

Employment 633,600 640,300 655,200 670,200 683,600 50,000 7.9%

Unemployment 37,300 37,300 36,700 35,700 35,700 100 0.3%

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.8 -0.3

Participation Rate (%) 67.6 67.5 67.3 67.1 66.9 -0.7

Worker Demand versus Supply:

Demand for Workers 666,100 674,000 689,800 705,800 720,000 53,900 8.1%

Supply of Workers 674,900 681,900 695,900 711,000 725,800 61,600 9.3%

Demand Imbalance -8,800 -7,900 -6,100 -5,200 -5,800

Table continued on next page.


2016 2017 2019 2021 2023 2016 to2023

Per cent Change

Source of Job Openings:

Expansion demand -4,000 8,000 8,300 7,300 8,200 12,200

Replacement demand 16,100 16,000 16,000 16,100 16,200 100 0.6%

Retirements 13,300 13,200 13,300 13,400 13,500 200 1.5%

Deaths 2,800 2,800 2,700 2,700 2,700 -100 -3.6%

Sources of Supply Change:

New Entrants 13,200 13,000 13,100 13,200 13,700 500 3.8%

Net In-mobility 3,700 9,900 10,400 10,300 10,300 6,600 178.4%

net In-migration 5,100 5,200 5,400 5,600 5,600 500 9.8%

net other mobility -1,500 4,700 5,000 4,700 4,800 6,300


Appendix 2: Detailed Occupation Summary One-digit NOC Level, Supply and Demand, 2016 to 2023

NOC 0-9: ALL occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Labour Force Demand 666,000 674,000 681,500 689,800 698,600 705,800 711,800 720,000

Labour Force Supply 674,900 681,900 688,400 695,900 703,600 711,000 717,000 725,800

Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 92,500

Net In-Mobility 71,000

Total Demand Change 166,500

Expansion Demand 54,000

Replacement Demand 112,600

NOC 0: Management occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 0






NOC 1: Business, Finance and Administration occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 13,900





NOC 2: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 5,800






NOC 3: Health occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 10,000


Total demand Change 18,400



NOC 4: Occupations in Education, Law and Social, Community and Government Services

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 14,400






NOC 5: Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 2,100





NOC 6: Sales and Service occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 23,900






NOC 7: Trades, Transport and Equipment operators and Related occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 16,000





NOC 8: Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 2,200

Net In-Mobility -600


Expansion Demand -200



NOC 9: Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023



Total 2017-2023

New Entrants 4,200






Appendix 3: Job Openings at Three-digit NOC Level, Total 2017 to 2023

Three-digit NOC Codes and Titles Job openings

NOC 0: Management occupations#062 Retail and wholesale trade managers 4,800

#082 Managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 2,800

#001 Legislators and senior management 2,500

#071 Managers in construction and facility operation and maintenance 1,900

#011 Administrative services managers 1,700

#063 Managers in food service and accommodation 1,500

#012 Managers in financial and business services 1,500

#042 Managers in education and social and community services 1,500

#091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities 1,100

#060 Corporate sales managers 900

#031 Managers in health care 800

#021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems 600

#073 Managers in transportation 500

#051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 400

#041 Managers in public administration 300

#043 Managers in public protection services 200

#065 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 200

#013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 200

#081 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 0

NOC 1: Business, Finance and Administration

#122 Administrative and regulatory occupations 5,000

#141 General office workers 4,500

#124 Office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical 3,600

#143 Financial, insurance and related administrative support workers 2,700

#152 Supply chain logistics, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 2,300

#111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 2,100

#131 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 2,100

#112 Human resources and business service professionals 1,600

#121 Administrative services supervisors 1,100

#151 Mail and message distribution occupations 1,000

#145 Library, correspondence and other clerks 700

#142 Office equipment operators 500

#125 Court reporters, transcriptionists, records management technicians and statistical officers

200




NOC 2: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related occupations#217 Computer and information systems professionals 2,000

#228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 1,000

#224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering 900

#213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers 700

#223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering 400

#226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers 400

#225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics and meteorology

400

#222 Technical occupations in life sciences 300

#221 Technical occupations in physical sciences 300

#214 Other engineers 300

#212 Life science professionals 300

#227 Transportation officers and controllers 200

#215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors 200

#211 Physical science professionals 100

#216 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 100

NOC 3: Health occupations

#301 Professional occupations in nursing 6,800

#341 Assisting occupations in support of health services 5,300

#321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 1,700

#323 Other technical occupations in health care 1,700

#311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 1,300

#313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 600

#314 Therapy and assessment professionals 600

#322 Technical occupations in dental health care 300

#312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals 200



NOC 4: Occupations in Education, Law and Social, Community and government Services#403 Secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors 5,500

#421 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 5,400

#441 Home care providers and educational support occupations 5,100

#415 Social and community service professionals 2,300

#416 Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers 1,600

#431 Occupations in front-line public protection services 1,200

#401 University professors and post-secondary assistants 1,100

#402 College and other vocational instructors 800

#442 Legal and public protection support occupations 400

#411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 300

NOC 5: Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

#513 Creative and performing artists 1,000

#524 Creative designers and craftspersons 800

#512 Writing, translating and related communications professionals 500

#525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 500

#521 Technical occupations in libraries, public archives, museums and art galleries 200

#522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

200

#511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 200

#523 Announcers and other performers, n.e.c. 200



NOC 6: Sales and Service occupations#673 Cleaners 5,500

#642 Retail salespersons 4,600

#671 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,600

#632 Chefs and cooks 2,400

#661 Cashiers 2,000

#655 Customer and information services representatives 1,900

#651 Occupations in food and beverage service 1,800

#662 Other sales support and related occupations 1,600

#623 Insurance, real estate and financial sales occupations 1,300

#654 Security guards and related security service occupations 1,300

#641 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 1,200

#634 Specialized occupations in personal and customer services 1,100

#622 Technical sales specialists in wholesale trade and retail and wholesale buyers 900

#631 Service supervisors 800

#652 Occupations in travel and accommodation 700

#621 Retail sales supervisors 600

#633 Butchers and bakers 500

#674 Other service support and related occupations, n.e.c. 500

#656 Other occupations in personal service 300

#653 Tourism and amusement services occupations 300

#672 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and amusement services 200



NOC 7: Trades, Transport and Equipment operators and Related occupations#751 Motor vehicle and transit drivers 5,800

#723 Machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 1,800

#732 Automotive service technicians 1,800

#731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 1,600

#727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 1,500

#745 Longshore workers and material handlers 1,300

#724 Electrical trades and electrical power line and telecommunications workers 1,200

#761 Trades helpers and labourers 1,000

#720 Contractors and supervisors, industrial, electrical and construction trades and related workers

800

#730 Contractors and supervisors, maintenance trades and heavy equipment and transport operators

800

#729 Other construction trades 500

#752 Heavy equipment operators 500

#753 Other transport equipment operators and related maintenance workers 400

#744 Other installers, repairers and servicers 400

#762 Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. 400

#736 Train crew operating occupations 400

#725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 300

#738 Printing press operators and other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 300

#733 Other mechanics and related repairers 200

#728 Masonry and plastering trades 200

#737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 100



NOC 8: Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations#861 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 700

#823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related occupations 200

#822 Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 200

#825 Contractors and supervisors, agriculture, horticulture and related operations and services

200

#843 Agriculture and horticulture workers 200

#826 Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 100

#842 Logging and forestry workers 100

#824 Logging machinery operators 0

#841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling 0

#844 Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 0

#821 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0

NOC 9: Occupations in Manufacturing and Utilities

#961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 1,700

#952 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers 1,100

#946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and associated products processing

1,000

#941 Machine operators and related workers in mineral and metal products processing and manufacturing

800

#921 Supervisors, processing and manufacturing occupations 800

#924 Utilities equipment operators and controllers 600

#947 Printing equipment operators and related occupations 300

#942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing 300

#943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing and manufacturing

300

#923 Central control and process operators in processing and manufacturing 200

#944 Machine operators and related workers in textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

200

#953 Other assembly and related occupations 200

#922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication 100


Appendix 4: Job Openings and Labour Market Tightness at the 4-digit NOC level, 2017-2023

NOC Occupation Title

Skill

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Labour Market Tightness (Yellow = neutral; Red = tight; Grey = unavailable)

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Management Occupations#0011 Legislators 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0012 Senior government managers and officials 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0013Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

0 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0014

Senior managers - health, education, social and community services and membership organizations

0 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0015Senior managers - trade, broadcasting and other services, n.e.c.

0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0016Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

0 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 400 400

#0111 Financial managers 0 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 600 700

#0112 Human resources managers 0 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#0113 Purchasing managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0114 Other administrative services managers 0 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#0121Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers

0 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 0 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 500 400

#0124Advertising, marketing and public relations managers

0 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0125 Other business services managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0131 Telecommunication carriers managers 0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0132 Postal and courier services managers 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0211 Engineering managers 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0212 Architecture and science managers 0 100 0 100 100

#0213Computer and information systems managers

0 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#0311 Managers in health care 0 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 600 900

#0411Government managers - health and social policy development and program administration

0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0412Government managers - economic analysis, policy development and program administration

0 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#0413Government managers - education policy development and program administration

0 0 0 0 0




Skill

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Management Occupations

#0414 Other managers in public administration 0 0 0 100 100

#0421Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training

0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#0422School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education

0 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#0423Managers in social, community and correctional services

0 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0431 Commissioned police officers 0 0 0 0 0

#0432 Fire chiefs and senior fire-fighting officers 0 0 0 0 0

#0433 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Forces 0 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0511 Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#0512Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts

0 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0513Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors

0 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0601 Corporate sales managers 0 2,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 700 900

#0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 0 12,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,200 3,600 4,800

#0631 Restaurant and food service managers 0 3,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 700 1,000

#0632 Accommodation service managers 0 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#0651Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c.

0 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#0711 Construction managers 0 2,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 700 700

#0712 Home building and renovation managers 0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers 0 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 500 700

#0731 Managers in transportation 0 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#0811Managers in natural resources production and fishing

0 100 0 0 0

#0821 Managers in agriculture 0 13,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -1,500 4,300 2,800

#0822 Managers in horticulture 0 100 -0 0 0

#0823 Managers in aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0

#0911 Manufacturing managers 0 2,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 900 1,000

#0912 Utilities managers 0 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



Skill

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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


#1111 Financial auditors and accountants A 6,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 1,200 1,600

#1112 Financial and investment analysts A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1113Securities agents, investment dealers and brokers

A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1114 Other financial officers A 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 400 400

#1121 Human resources professionals A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#1122Professional occupations in business management consulting

A 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1123Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations

A 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1211Supervisors, general office and administrative support workers

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1212 Supervisors, finance and insurance office workers B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1213Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers

B 100 0 0 0

#1214Supervisors, mail and message distribution occupations

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1215Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations

B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1221 Administrative officers B 8,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 2,400 3,000

#1222 Executive assistants B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1223 Human resources and recruitment officers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1224 Property administrators B 1,600 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 100 500 600

#1225 Purchasing agents and officers B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1226 Conference and event planners B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1227 Court officers and justices of the peace B 100 0 0 0

#1228Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers

B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1241 Administrative assistants B 11,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,000 2,300 3,300

#1242 Legal administrative assistants B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#1243 Medical administrative assistants B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#1251Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1252Health information management occupations

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 0

#1253 Records management technicians B 100 0 0 0




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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


#1254Statistical officers and related research support occupations

B 0 0 0 0

#1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers B 5,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 1,100 1,300

#1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners B 1,200 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1313 Insurance underwriters B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1314 Assessors, valuators and appraisers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1315 Customs, ship and other brokers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#1411 General office support workers C 9,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,900 3,000

#1414 Receptionists C 5,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 800 1,400

#1415 Personnel clerks C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1416 Court clerks C 100 0 0 0

#1422 Data entry clerks C 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#1423Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#1431 Accounting and related clerks C 6,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 1,300 1,800

#1432 Payroll clerks C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#1434 Banking, insurance and other financial clerks C 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1435 Collectors C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#1451 Library assistants and clerks C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#1452Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks

C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1454 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks C 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1511 Mail, postal and related workers C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#1512 Letter carriers C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1513Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors

C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#1521 Shippers and receivers C 4,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 700 1,000

#1522 Storekeepers and partspersons C 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#1523 Production logistics co-ordinators C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#1524 Purchasing and inventory control workers C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1525 Dispatchers C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#1526 Transportation route and crew schedulers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0



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#2111 Physicists and astronomers A 0 0 0 0

#2112 Chemists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2113 Geoscientists and oceanographers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2114 Meteorologists and climatologists A 0 0 0 0

#2115Other professional occupations in physical sciences

A 0 0 0 0

#2121 Biologists and related scientists A 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#2122 Forestry professionals A 0 0 0 0

#2123Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists

A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2131 Civil engineers A 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#2132 Mechanical engineers A 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#2133 Electrical and electronics engineers A 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#2134 Chemical engineers A 0 0 0 20

#2141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2143 Mining engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2144 Geological engineers A 100 0 0 0

#2145 Petroleum engineers A 0 0 0 0

#2146 Aerospace engineers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2147Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers)

A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2148 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. A 0 0 0 0

#2151 Architects A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2152 Landscape architects A 100 0 0 0

#2153 Urban and land use planners A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2154 Land surveyors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2161 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#2171 Information systems analysts and consultants A 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 700 1,100

#2172 Database analysts and data administrators A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2173 Software engineers and designers A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#2174Computer programmers and interactive media developers

A 2,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 400 700




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#2175 Web designers and developers A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#2211 Chemical technologists and technicians B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2212Geological and mineral technologists and technicians

B 200 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2221 Biological technologists and technicians B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2222 Agricultural and fish products inspectors B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2223 Forestry technologists and technicians B 100 0 0 0

#2224 Conservation and fishery officers B 100 0 0 0

#2225Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2231Civil engineering technologists and technicians

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2232Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2233Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#2234 Construction estimators B 500 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2241Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians

B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#2242Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment)

B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#2243Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics

B 0 0 0 0

#2244Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2251Architectural technologists and technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2252 Industrial designers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2253 Drafting technologists and technicians B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 286

#2254Land survey technologists and technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2255Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#2261Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#2262 Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers B 100 0 0 0

#2263Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10o 200 300

#2264 Construction inspectors B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors B 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200




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#2272 Air traffic controllers and related occupations B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#2273 Deck officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2274 Engineer officers, water transport B 0 0 0 0

#2275Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators

B 0 0 0 0

#2281 Computer network technicians B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#2282 User support technicians B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#2283 Information systems testing technicians B 0 0 0 0



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Health occupations

#3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3012Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses

A 17,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3,100 3,600 6,700

#3111 Specialist physicians A 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 300 700

#3112 General practitioners and family physicians A 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#3113 Dentists A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3114 Veterinarians A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#3121 Optometrists A 100 0 0 0

#3122 Chiropractors A 300 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 100 100

#3124 Allied primary health practitioners A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 100

#3125Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating

A 0 0 0 0

#3131 Pharmacists A 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#3132 Dietitians and nutritionists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3141 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3142 Physiotherapists A 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3143 Occupational therapists A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3144Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment

A 100 0 0 0

#3211 Medical labouratory technologists B 1,000 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 100 300 400

#3212Medical labouratory technicians and pathologists' assistants

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3213Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#3214Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists

B 300 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 100 100 200

#3215 Medical radiation technologists B 800 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 100 200 300

#3216 Medical sonographers B 100 0 0 0

#3217Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c.

B 200 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0

#3219Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health)

B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#3221 Denturists B 100 0 0 0

#3222 Dental hygienists and dental therapists B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3223Dental technologists, technicians and labouratory assistants

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0




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Health occupations#3231 Opticians B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#3232 Practitioners of natural healing B 100 0 0 0

#3233 Licensed practical nurses B 2,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 600 1,000

#3234 Paramedical occupations B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3236 Massage therapists B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#3237Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#3411 Dental assistants C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#3413Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates

C 13,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2,300 2,300 4,600

#3414Other assisting occupations in support of health services

C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400



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#4011 University professors and lecturers A 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 700 800

#4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4021 College and other vocational instructors A 2,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 600 800

#4031 Secondary school teachers A 5,400 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 600 1,100 1,700

#4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers A 10,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,600 2,000 3,600

#4033 Educational counsellors A 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4111 Judges A 100 0 0 0

#4112 Lawyers and Quebec notaries A 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4151 Psychologists A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4152 Social workers A 2,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 500 900

#4153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors A 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#4154 Professional occupations in religion A 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#4155Probation and parole officers and related occupations

A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#4156 Employment counsellors A 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4161Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4162Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts

A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#4163Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants

A 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4164Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4165Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4166Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4167Recreation, sports and fitness policy researchers, consultants and program officers

A 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#4168 Program officers unique to government A 500 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4169Other professional occupations in social science, n.e.c.

A 100 0 0 0

#4211 Paralegal and related occupations B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4212 Social and community service workers B 7,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,200 2,200




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#4214 Early childhood educators and assistants B 9,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,500 1,300 2,800

#4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4216 Other instructors B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4217 Other religious occupations B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#4311 Police officers (except commissioned) B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#4312 Firefighters B 600 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 100 200 300

#4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#4411 Home child care providers C 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#4412Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations

C 5,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 800 1,000 1,800

#4413Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants

C 8,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,200 1,600 2,800

#4421 Sheriffs and bailiffs C 100 0 0 0

#4422 Correctional service officers C 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#4423By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c.

C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0



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Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport#5111 Librarians A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5112 Conservators and curators A 100 0 0 0

#5113 Archivists A 100 0 0 0

#5121 Authors and writers A 700 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#5122 Editors A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5123 Journalists A 200 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#5125Translators, terminologists and interpreters

A 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5131Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations

A 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#5132 Conductors, composers and arrangers A 100 0 0 0

#5133 Musicians and singers A 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#5134 Dancers A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5135 Actors and comedians A 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists A 600 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5211 Library and public archive technicians B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5212Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries

B 100 0 0 0

#5221 Photographers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5222 Film and video camera operators B 100 0 0 0

#5223 Graphic arts technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5224 Broadcast technicians B 100 0 0 0

#5225 Audio and video recording technicians B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5226

Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

B 100 0 0 0

#5227

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5231 Announcers and other broadcasters B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5232 Other performers, n.e.c. B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5241 Graphic designers and illustrators B 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300




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#5242 Interior designers and interior decorators B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5243Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#5244 Artisans and craftspersons B 400 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#5245 Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products B 0 0 0 0

#5251 Athletes B 0 0 0 0

#5252 Coaches B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5253 Sports officials and referees B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#5254Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness

B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 100 400



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Sales and service occupations#6211 Retail sales supervisors B 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 300 500

#6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#6222 Retail and wholesale buyers B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#6231 Insurance agents and brokers B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 300 700

#6232 Real estate agents and salespersons B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#6235 Financial sales representatives B 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 300 200

#6311 Food service supervisors B 1,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#6312 Executive housekeepers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6313Accommodation, travel, tourism and related services supervisors

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6314Customer and information services supervisors

B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6315 Cleaning supervisors B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6316 Other services supervisors B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6321 Chefs B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#6322 Cooks B 8,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,200 900 2,100

#6331Butchers, meat cutters and fishmongers - retail and wholesale

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6332 Bakers B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 200 400

#6341 Hairstylists and barbers B 3,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 500 900

#6342 Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners B 400 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#6343 Shoe repairers and shoemakers B 0 0 0 0

#6344Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occupations

B 100 0 0 0

#6345 Upholsterers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6346 Funeral directors and embalmers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6411Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical)

C 4,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 800 1,200

#6421 Retail salespersons C 22,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2,200 2,400 4,600

#6511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 0 100

#6512 Bartenders C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 100 300

#6513 Food and beverage servers C 8,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 300 1,400




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Sales and service occupations#6521 Travel counsellors C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6522 Pursers and flight attendants C 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6523 Airline ticket and service agents C 500 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6524

Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks

C 200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6525 Hotel front desk clerks C 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6531 Tour and travel guides C 0 0 0 0

#6532 Outdoor sport and recreational guides C 100 0 0 0

#6533 Casino occupations C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6541Security guards and related security service occupations

C 4,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 700 1,200

#6551Customer services representatives - financial institutions

C 3,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 500 400

#6552Other customer and information services representatives

C 7,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 900 1,500

#6561 Image, social and other personal consultants C 0 0 0 0

#6562Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations

C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6563 Pet groomers and animal care workers C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6564 Other personal service occupations C 0 0 0 0

#6611 Cashiers D 10,700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,300 700 2,000

#6621 Service station attendants D 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 0 200

#6622 Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers D 5,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 600 400 1,000

#6623 Other sales related occupations D 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6711Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations

D 13,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2,000 600 2,600

#6721Support occupations in accommodation, travel and facilities set-up services

D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#6722Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport

D 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#6731 Light duty cleaners D 8,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 1,600 2,700

#6732 Specialized cleaners D 2,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents D 8,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 900 1,700 2,600

#6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#6742 Other service support occupations, n.e.c. D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200



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#7201

Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7202

Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7203Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7204Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7205

Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers

B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#7231Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors

B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7232 Tool and die makers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7233 Sheet metal workers B 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7234 Boilermakers B 0 0 0 0

#7235Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters

B 100 0 0 0

#7236 Ironworkers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7237 Welders and related machine operators B 5,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 800 1,200

#7241Electricians (except industrial and power system)

B 3,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 600 400

#7242 Industrial electricians B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7243 Power system electricians B 400 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 0 100 100

#7244 Electrical power line and cable workers B 800 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 0 100 100

#7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7246Telecommunications installation and repair workers

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7247Cable television service and maintenance technicians

B 100 0 0 0

#7251 Plumbers B 2,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 300 200

#7252Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#7253 Gas fitters B 100 0 0 0

#7271 Carpenters B 7,300 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 600 1,000 1,600

#7272 Cabinetmakers B 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 100 -100

#7281 Bricklayers B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0




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Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations#7282 Concrete finishers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7283 Tilesetters B 100 0 0 0

#7284Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers

B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 200 100

#7291 Roofers and shinglers B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#7292 Glaziers B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7293 Insulators B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7294Painters and decorators (except interior decorators)

B 1,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 400 300

#7295 Floor covering installers B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7301Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades

B 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7302Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews

B 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 400 200

#7303 Supervisors, printing and related occupations B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7304 Supervisors, railway transport operations B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7305Supervisors, motor transport and other ground transit operators

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics B 1,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics B 2,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500

#7313 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics B 1,100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7314 Railway carmen/women B 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7315 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors B 1,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 300

#7316 Machine fitters B 200 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 100

#7318 Elevator constructors and mechanics B 100 0 0 0

#7321Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers

B 5,900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 1,100 1,500

#7322 Motor vehicle body repairers B 1,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics B 0 0 0 0

#7332 Appliance servicers and repairers B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7333 Electrical mechanics B 200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7334Motorcycle, all-terrain vehicle and other related mechanics

B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7335Other small engine and small equipment repairers

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7361 Railway and yard locomotive engineers B 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100




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#7362 Railway conductors and brakemen/women B 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7371 Crane operators B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7372Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction

B 100 0 0 0

#7373 Water well drillers B 100 -100 0 -100

#7381 Printing press operators B 500 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#7384 Other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. B 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7441Residential and commercial installers and servicers

C 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#7442 Waterworks and gas maintenance workers C 200 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 0 0 0

#7444 Pest controllers and fumigators C 100 0 0 0

#7445 Other repairers and servicers C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7451 Longshore workers C 0 0 0 0

#7452 Material handlers C 5,400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 500 800 1,300

#7511 Transport truck drivers C 14,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,100 2,700 3,800

#7512Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators

C 2,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 300 600 900

#7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs C 1,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 300 400

#7514 Delivery and courier service drivers C 3,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 400 600

#7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) C 3,800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -400 700 300

#7522Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers

C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7531 Railway yard and track maintenance workers C 600 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7532 Water transport deck and engine room crew C 0 0 0 0

#7533Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#7534 Air transport ramp attendants C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#7535Other automotive mechanical installers and servicers

C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers D 7,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 200 700 900

#7612 Other trades helpers and labourers D 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#7621 Public works and maintenance labourers D 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#7622 Railway and motor transport labourers D 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100



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Natural resources, agriculture and related occupations

#8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry B 100 0 0 0

#8221 Supervisors, mining and quarrying B 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 200

#8222Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services

B 100 0 0 0

#8231 Underground production and development miners B 1,100 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#8232Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers

B 400 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 0 -100

#8241 Logging machinery operators B 100 0 0 0

#8252

Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8255Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services

B 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#8261 Fishing masters and officers B 0 0 0 0

#8262 Fishermen/women B 400 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 100 100 200

#8411Underground mine service and support workers

C 200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8412Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators

C 200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8421 Chain saw and skidder operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8422 Silviculture and forestry workers C 100 0 0 0

#8431 General farm workers C 6,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -600 700 100

#8432 Nursery and greenhouse workers C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#8441 Fishing vessel deckhands C 0 0 0 0

#8442 Trappers and hunters C 0 0 0 0

#8611 Harvesting labourers D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8612Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers

D 3,500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 400 300 700

#8613 Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers D 0 0 0 0

#8614 Mine labourers D 200 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8615Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers

D 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#8616 Logging and forestry labourers D 100 0 0 0



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#9211 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9212Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 300 300

#9213Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing

B 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9214Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing

B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9215 Supervisors, forest products processing B 100 0 100 100

#9217Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

B 0 0 0 0

#9221 Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling B 100 0 0 0

#9222 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing B 0 0 0 0

#9223 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing B 0 0 0 0

#9224 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing B 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 100 0

#9226Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing

B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9227Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly

B 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9231Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing

B 200 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9232Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators

B 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9235Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators

B 0 0 0 0

#9241 Power engineers and power systems operators B 1,600 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 100 400 500

#9243 Water and waste treatment plant operators B 700 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 0 100 100

#9411Machine operators, mineral and metal processing

C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9412 Foundry workers C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9413Glass forming and finishing machine operators and glass cutters

C 100 0 0 0

#9414 Concrete, clay and stone forming operators C 100 0 0 0

#9415Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing

C 100 0 0 0

#9416Metalworking and forging machine operators

C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9417 Machining tool operators C 600 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9418 Other metal products machine operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9421 Chemical plant machine operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0




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#9422 Plastics processing machine operators C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9423Rubber processing machine operators and related workers

C 100 0 0 0

#9431 Sawmill machine operators C 100 0 100 100

#9432 Pulp mill machine operators C 0 0 0 0

#9433Papermaking and finishing machine operators

C 0 0 0 0

#9434 Other wood processing machine operators C 200 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9435 Paper converting machine operators C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9436Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders

C 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 0 0

#9437 Woodworking machine operators C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 0 -100

#9441Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers

C 0 0 0 0

#9442Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations

C 0 0 0 0

#9445 Fabric, fur and leather cutters C 100 0 0 0

#9446 Industrial sewing machine operators C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9447Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing

C 0 0 0 0

#9461Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 1,300 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 100 300 400

#9462Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers

C 2,100 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 200 300 500

#9463 Fish and seafood plant workers C 0 0 0 0

#9465Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing

C 200 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 0 0 0

#9471 Plateless printing equipment operators C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9472Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations

C 200 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9473 Binding and finishing machine operators C 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9474 Photographic and film processors C 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9521Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors

C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9522Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers

C 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 200 200

#9523Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers

C 800 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -100 200 100




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#9524

Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing

C 300 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9525Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers

C 200 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9526 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors C 1,000 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9527Machine operators and inspectors, electrical apparatus manufacturing

C 100 0 0 0

#9531 Boat assemblers and inspectors C 0 0 0 0

#9532Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors

C 1,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -400 200 -200

#9533Other wood products assemblers and inspectors

C 900 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9534 Furniture finishers and refinishers C 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -200 100 -100

#9535Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9536Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators

C 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 100 200

#9537Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors

C 1,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 200 300

#9611 Labourers in mineral and metal processing D 300 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9612 Labourers in metal fabrication D 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9613Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities

D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing D 400 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 100 100

#9615Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing

D 200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

#9616 Labourers in textile processing D 0 0 0 0

#9617Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing

D 3,300 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 300 500 800

#9618 Labourers in fish and seafood processing D 0 0 0 0

#9619Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

D 2,200 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 400 500


Key Data SourcesA variety of qualitative and quantitative data and information sources were used, including:

• Stokes Economic Consulting (SECINC)

• International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Manitoba Bureau of Statistics

• Manitoba Finance - Budget 2016

• Statistics Canada

• National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2011

For more information:

Economic Analysis and Research Unit Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade Phone: 204-945-8836Fax: 204-945-1354E-mail: [email protected]

manitoba.ca/lmi

Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017 to 2023

manitoba labour market occupational forecasts 2017 … · manitoba labour market occupational...

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