manpower employment outlook survey - meos q2 2015

Manpower

Employment

Outlook Survey

Q2 2015

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2015

ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 10, 2015 2

MEOS Q2 2015 Summary

The national NEO is +6%, no change from the (revised) Outlook in Q1, 2015.

This is the third successive quarter of +6% optimism.

Hiring in the public sector is up 10 points on the quarter, from +2% to +12%.

Private sector optimism remains on +7% for the fourth consecutive quarter.

The Utilities sector rose a further two points to +18% and the top of the

sector table – its highest level for eight years.

The Outlook in Scotland slipped into negative territory for the first time since

2012 and now stands at -1%.

The Manufacturing sector rose three points to +10%, equal with its strongest

Outlook in the last seven years and continuing strongest recent performance.



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

6

5

-1

-3

-6

-5

-1

1 1 1 1

2 2

3

1

0

2 2

3

6 6

5

6

5

7

8

6 6 6

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

MEOS: National Outlook since Q2 2008

2015

Outlook remains firmly optimistic



Size of company breakdown

Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions.

Large businesses down 5 points – perhaps the result of political uncertainty.

Micro businesses remain least optimistic.

21

11

8

4

6

16

9

10

3

6

Large

Medium

Small

Micro

National Q2 '15 Q1 '15 n/c

-1

+2

-2

-5

QoQ change



Industry sector breakdown

9

3

5

9

5

6

8

7

16

6

-2

4

4

5

5

7

8

10

18

6

Q2 '15

Q1 '15

QoQ change

+1

+2

+3

n/c

+1

n/c

-4

-1

+1

-11

National

Electricity, Gas & Water

Manufacturing

Finance & Business Services

Mining & Quarrying

Transport, Storage & Comms

Construction

Wholesale & Retail, Restaurants and

Hotels

Public & Social

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing



Public/private sector breakdown

Public sector intentions have risen sharply, from +2 to +12 – a ten point rise.

In contrast, private sector hiring was unchanged on +7.

Public and private data is now seasonally adjusted.

5

7

2

6

-1

7

12

6

Q2 '15

Q1 '15

n/c

+10

n/c

-6

QoQ change

*Data not seasonally adjusted

National

Public

Private

Not For Profit*



Public/private sector: trends since 2011

Private sector optimism has been a consistent +7% for a year, and has

usually exceeded the public sector.

However, the public sector Outlook has been more volatile – such as the

jump we’ve seen this quarter.

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15

Private sector Public sector



Regions and nations breakdown

2

-3

15

2

15

4

7

7

7

12

7

12

6

-1

1

2

4

6

6

7

7

9

11

11

12

6

Q2 '15

Q1 '15

QoQ change

NATIONAL

WEST MIDLANDS

NORTH WEST

EAST MIDLANDS

EAST

SOUTH EAST

LONDON

WALES

SOUTH WEST

YORKSHIRE & HUMBERSIDE

NORTH EAST

NORTHERN IRELAND

SCOTLAND

n/c

n/c

+4

-1

+2

n/c

n/c

+2

-9

+2

-13

+4

-3



UK employment intention heat map: Q2 2015

-1

+2+1

+11

+4

+6+12

+11

+7+6

+9

+7