manpower employment outlook survey - meos q4 2013

8 April 2023

Q4 2013 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey UK

Manpower


8 April 2023

Q4 2013 MEOS Summary

2

• The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) for the fourth quarter of 2013 is based on responses from 2,104 UK employers and asks whether they intend to increase or reduce the size of their workforce in the coming economic quarter

• The National Employment Outlook (derived by subtracting the % employers anticipating an increase in staffing levels from those expecting a decrease) has increased marginally to +6% from +5% last quarter, concluding a consistently positive year – the most optimistic since 2007

• In terms of the raw data, 12% of employers are looking to hire in Q4, with 5% looking to reduce head count and 83% to retain the same staffing levels – suggesting an increasingly dynamic labour market

• Top performer this quarter is the Finance and Business Services sector. At +16%, it’s now at its highest level in two and a half years

• For the first time in 5 years, employers in the Retail sector (currently +3%) have recorded a positive Outlook in every quarter for the past year

• At a regional level the picture is very volatile: the East of England and North West are flying high this quarter at +14%, while London (last quarter’s star performer) has dropped 9 percentage points to +3%

• Medium sized companies continue to be the most optimistic.

Manpower


Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-1

-3

-6-5

-1

1 1 1 12 2

3

10

2 23

6 65

6National Employment Outlook

MEOS: The last five years

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2008

8 April 2023

*All data is seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise

Manpower


Company size breakdown

Large

Medium

Small

Micro

National

13

15

8

2

5

12

16

10

3

6

Q4 Q3

+1

+1

+2

+1

-1

QoQ change

• Companies of all sizes show positive hiring intentions

• Medium businesses are the most optimistic – with an Employment Outlook of +16%, a one percentage point rise from the previous quarter

• Large businesses’ positivity fell by one percentage point to +12%. Small business optimism rose two percentage points to +10%

• Micro businesses report a small increase in optimism of one percentage point to +3% – their highest level since Q3 2008.

8 April 2023

*All data is seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise

Manpower


Sector breakdown

-4

4

7

2

-1

5

5

6

14

5

-5

2

3

3

4

4

6

13

16

6

Q4 Q3

Employment Outlook QoQ change

National

Finance & Business services

Utilities

Mining

Community and social

Agriculture

Hotels & Retail

Transport and comms

Manufacturing

Construction

+1

+2

+7

+1

-1

+5

+1

-4

-2

-1

8 April 2023

Manpower


Public/private sector breakdown*• Private sector hiring intentions (+8%) are more positive than public sector

intentions (+2%)

• Public sector hiring intentions are down by four percentage points; private sector hiring intentions are up two percentage points, quarter over quarter

• Optimism among not-for-profits fell 8 points to +5%.

Not for profit

Public sector

Private sector

National

13

6

6

5

5

2

8

6

Q4 Q3

+1

+2

-4

-8


*Data is not seasonally adjusted

8 April 2023

Manpower


2011 2012 2013

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

5

3

-2

3

5 5 5 6 6

8

-2-2

-6-6

00

-3

76

2

Public/private sector breakdown*

Public sector

Private sector

*Data is not seasonally adjusted

8 April 2023

Manpower


8 April 2023

Regional summary

8

• Employers in the East of England and North West are the most optimistic this quarter at +14%. The North West has surged from -3% last quarter out to post its highest level of optimism since Q3 2007 at +10%

• The Outlook in the North East has also shot up. Down on -1% last quarter, it now stands at +10% – the UK’s third most optimistic region

• London has slipped from +12% in Q3 to +3% in Q4, its lowest level of the year

• Levels of optimism in the South East at +7% and the South West +8% remain very solid,

• The Outlooks for the East Midlands and West Midlands remain firmly positive. The East Midlands is up one percentage point to +7%; the West Midlands is also at +7%, unchanged from the previous quarter

• Yorkshire and Humberside fell from +5% to -3%. The region is in equal last place in the regional league table with Northern Ireland, which is still struggling on -3%. Northern Ireland has not reported a positive Outlook at any point in the last year

• Scotland and Wales both end the year on +4%. For Scotland this represents a slight quarterly improvement in sentiment from +2% in Q3; for Wales a seven point fall from +11% in the previous quarter.

Manpower


Regional breakdown

5

0

12

2

11

6

6

7

9

-1

13

3

5

-3

-3

3

4

4

7

7

7

8

10

14

14

6

Q4 Q3


National

North West

East of England

North East

South West

West Midlands

South East

East Midlands

Wales

Scotland

London

Northern Ireland

Yorkshire & Humbs

+1

+11

+1

+11

-1

n/c

+1

+1

-7

+2

-9

-3

-8

8 April 2023

Manpower


UK employment intention heat map

+4

+10-3

+14-3

+4+7

+7

+7+8

+14

+13

Outlook

-10>

-9 to -10

-7 to -8

-5 to -6

-3 to -4

-1 to -2

0

1 to 2

3 to 4

5 to 6

7 to 8

9 to 10

10<

+3

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