MANPOWER EXPORT FROM INDIA TO OVERSEAS FOR SERVICE INDUSTRYEMPLOYABILITY AND INDIAEmployment is an issue of concern for every country. The better the rate of employment in any nation better is the overall economic condition. According to the Global Talent Index 2015 almost four in ten (39 percent) businesses around the world are struggling to recruit the right people, with a lack of technical skills cited as the primary problem (64 percent). The concern is that this lack of talent will dampen business productivity, ultimately threatening future growth and profitability. In fact for about 3/4th Indian businesses, one of the primary challenges faced is the shortage of technical or specific skills.India is set to play a pivotal role in the world due to the presence of active population. With an expected population of 1.3 billion by 2020, 60% of which would be in the working age group (15-59 years) as per the Boston Consulting Group Report, India is going to have a surplus of active population - about 47 million people.China is a formidable competitor yet with its existing one child policy, it is down by dividend for India when major portion of its population is active (in the working age 15-50 years). Now with the above mentioned implications to the future of world in general and to India in particular it is important to analyse where India stands in terms of skills at present.Status of employability 2014 According to the India Skills Report 2014 published by Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), Wheebox and People strong suggest that: Only 37% of the graduates of India are employable. 38% of the women candidates are employable and 34% of the men are found to be employable. The top 10 states in terms of employable male candidates are- Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Orissa and West Bengal while the top 10 states with employable female population are- Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, Orissa and West Bengal. By 2020, India would have a working population of about 0.8 billion out of the total population of 1.3 billion.

India and Global Talent Index 2015 Developing employees is the focus in the Asian nations of China and India. The report says 60% of companies here are devoting more resources to development than they were two years ago. In the global talent market India and China are regarded as the future to watch out for. Because these markets are relatively new and growing so fast, an adequate pipeline of ready-made employees equipped to step into the breach is simply not available. In the Global Talent Index 2011 India was ranked 35th with a score of 40.5 and in Global Talent Index 2015 India retained its rank with a small increase in score to 42.2 and a change from 2011- 2015 standing at +1.7. The top 3 nations in the Global Talent Index 2011 were United States at 74.2, Denmark at 64.7 and Finland at 63.2. These nations have retained their place in the Global Talent Index 2015 with United States at 74.5, Denmark at 65.4 and Finland at 64.2. Among all nations in the Global Talent Index 2015, China registers the largest score improvement in 2015.

Global economies would be needing high skilled labour increasingly and demand for low skills would decline. Situation would worsen in advanced economies because of demographic realties as the existing skilled workforce will retire and will not be replaceable in full. There is thus a need of global efforts to improve skills of labour across the disciplines and in an inclusive manner with a view to containing the polarization between the high skill high wage workers and low skill low wage workers. India is one of the advanced developing countries which would maintain its demographic advantage of having young work force capable of supplying labour to rest of the economies provided it is able to take up skill development programmes of its young people suiting the emerging needs of global economy. INDIA AIMS AT BECOMING GLOBAL HUB OF SUPPLY OF SKILLED MANPOWER The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has highlighted strains which have developed in the global labour market over the past three decades. As developing economies industrialized and began to compete globally on the strength of domestically and abundantly available labour at cheaper costs and developed countries increased their productivity by investing in labour-saving technologies and also by tapping low cost labour from global resources. Advanced economies are needing high-skill labour increasingly which is becoming scarcer by the day while demand for low skill labour has progressively declined. Labours overall share of income has fallen and consequently inequalities are growing as lower skill workers including 75 million young people face unemployment, underemployment and stagnating wages. MGI finds these trends gathering momentum and spreading to developing economies, as the global labour force approaches 3.5 billion in 2030. Based on current trends in population, education, and labour demand, the report projects that by 2020, the global economy could face the following scenario: 38 million to 40 million fewer workers with tertiary education (college or postgraduate degrees) than employers will need, or 13 percent of the demand for such workers 45 million too few workers with secondary education in developing economies, or 15 percent of the demand for such workers 90 million to 95 million more low-skill workers (those without college training in advanced economies or without even secondary education in developing economies) than employers will need, or 11 percent oversupply of such workers The world (both developed and developing economies) is experiencing an ever widening gap between the demand and supply of skilled labour. The worlds population is growing old. By 2050, the world population of people above 60 years will hit the 1.3 billion mark. This trend will lead to the widening of the demand-supply gap, especially in the developed nations like America, Germany and France. On the other hand, India is emerging with one of the youngest populations in the world comprising of a highly mobile, English speaking population. India will have a 2 billion sized English speaking work force by the end of 2020. Training such a workforce will imply that India can become the major exporter in the services sector as well as an exporter of manpower itself. It is estimated that by 2022, India will face a demand of 500 million skilled workers.

Over 61 million jobs are needed to close the crisis-related jobs gap. and the total number of jobseekers is 201 million today, over 1 million more than a year agoThe global economy has failed to recover the output levels of pre-crisis trends and employment creation is still not sufficient to close the jobs gap that opened up with the crisis. Indeed, there were more than 61 million fewer jobs in 2014 than would have been expected had the crisis not struck .This shortfall in jobs is also reflected in lower labour force participation rates, as many people have dropped out of the labour market, although the drop in participation rate has stabilized recently.Global employment grew at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent between 1991 and 2007. However, since the outbreak of the crisis, employment growth has slowed to 1.2 per cent per annum between 2007 and 2014. On current trends, unemployment will continue to rise as the labour force expands. Going forward, job creation is expected to remain at this lower growth rate over the medium term, causing a widening of the global jobs gap to around 82 million jobs in 2019. If new labour market entrants are taken into account, 280 million jobs will need to be created over the coming five years to close the crisis-related global jobs gap and to absorb the increase in the labour force.

Global unemployment stood at 201.3 million in 2014, with 1.2 million additional unemployed compared with the previous year and about 31 million more compared with 2007 . In 2014, close to 5.9 per cent of the labour force was without a job, with wide variations across countries. In particular countries in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East continue to suffer from high unemployment rates, in some cases up to 30 per cent of the labour force (see figure 1.3, panel B). Southern European countries have also not yet experienced significant declines in their unemployment rates, despite a modest pick-up in job creation observed in recent months. On the other hand, Asian countries in particular in South-East Asia and the Pacific experience relatively low unemployment rates, but often at the cost of high informal employment rates, which can in some countries reach nearly 85 per cent of total employment In Latin America and the Caribbean, several countries are facing growing unemployment, as the slowing global economy has started to bring down previously high job-creation rates.

Job creation in the coming years will be mainly in the service sectorThe bulk of new jobs are being created in private sector services, which will employ more than a third of the global workforce over the next five years .Public services in health care, education and administration will also see smaller increases, still reaching more than 12 per cent of total employment. In contrast, industrial employment is expected to stabilize globally at slightly below 22 per cent of total employment, mainly driven by a continuous rise in employment in construction whereas manufacturing industries continue to lose jobs. The advanced economies still account for the largest share of manufacturing jobs across the globe, but current trends will bring their employment share to below 12 per cent by the end of 2019. Some emerging countries have also seen a fall in their share of manufacturing employment, despite the fact that their manufacturing industries have not yet reached levels similar to those in advanced economies. In general, industrial employment is not likely to contribute strongly to employment recovery, despite its important role in structural transformation particularly in the emerging economies. Rather, service sector employment will remain the most dynamic area of job creation over the next five years with growing incidence of high-skilled occupationsLow-skilled occupations and non-routine manual jobs still make up more than 45 per cent of total employment worldwide, with medium-skill routine jobs accounting for ashare of around 37 per cent. At the same time, high-skilled non-routine cognitive jobs have beenincreasing steadily, making up more than 18 per cent of total employment. These trends are set to continue, although with significant regional variations .Medium-skill jobs are declining in advanced economies, partly replaced by low-skilled occupations, while they remain stable as a share of the global economy. The share of high-skilled occupations varies widely, ranging from less than 10 per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa to almost 40 per cent in developed economies. The decline of medium-skilled jobs in advanced economies may be one factor contributing to rising inequality in developed economies, the so called hollowing- out of middle income jobs.

Distribution of Employment by Sector, per cent

Countrywise main industries and contribution of Services in GDP:

COUNTRIESMAIN INDUSTRIESLABOUR FORCE BY OCCUPATION

Columbia

textiles, food processing, oil, clothingand footwear, beverages, chemicals,cement; gold, coal, emeralds,shipbuilding, electronics industry,home applianceagriculture: 6.6%; industry: 37.8%; services: 55.6% (2013 est.)

Peru

mining and refining of minerals/jewels; steel, metal fabrication; petroleum extraction and refining, natural gas and natural gas liquefaction, fishing and fish processing, cement, glass,textiles, clothing, food processing, beer, soft drinks,rubber, machinery, electrical machinery. chemicals,furnitureindustry: 17.4%, agriculture: 25.8%, services: 56.8% (2011)

Hong kong

textiles, clothing, tourism, banking, shipping, electronics, plastics, toys, watches, clocks

manufacturing (6.5%), construction (2.1%), wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels (43.3%), financing, insurance, and real estate (20.7%), transport and communications (7.8%), community and social services (19.5%)

Singaporeelectronics, chemicals, financial services, oil drilling equipment,petroleum refining, rubber processing and rubber products, processed food and beverages, ship repair, offshore platform construction, life sciences, entrepot tradeManufacturing 15.5%, construction 13.7%, services 70.1%, others 0.8%(2013 est.)

Argentina

Food processing and beverages; motor vehicles and auto parts; appliancesand electronics; chemicals,petrochemicals, and biodiesel;pharmaceuticals; steel and aluminum;machinery; glass and cement; textiles;tobacco products; publishing; furniture;leather.Agricultural, 7.3%; manufacturing, 13.1%; construction, 7.6%; commerce and tourism, 21.4%; transport, communications and utilities, 7.8%; financial, real estate and business services, 9.4%; public administration and defense, 6.3%; social services and other, 27.1%.

Australia

mining, industrial and transportation equipment, food processing, chemicals,steelagriculture: 3.6%, industry: 21.1%, services: 75%

United States

petroleum, steel, motor vehicles,aerospace, telecommunication,chemicals, arms industry, electronics,food processing, consumer goods,lumber, miningFarming, Forestry, and Fishing: 0.7%Manufacturing, Extraction,Transportation, and Crafts: 12%Managerial, Professional, andTechnical: 38%Sales and Office: 23%Installation and Maintenance: 3.3%Other Services: 23%

Canada

transportation equipment, chemicals, processed and unprocessed minerals,food products, wood and paper products, oil sands, fish products,petroleum and natural gasagriculture: 2%, manufacturing: 13%, construction: 6%, services: 76%, other: 3%

France

machinery, chemicals, automobiles, metallurgy, aircraft, electronics; textiles, food processing; tourism

services (71.8%), industry (24.3%), agriculture (3.8%)

Employment in services and high-skilled occupations is growingChange in employment by industry sector

Over the past four decades, the decline in manufacturing sector employment has been offset by growth in the service sector.Services requiring the highest levels of skills, such as finance, real estate, insurance and business services, are growing fastest.

Change in the demand for skills

health care and technology jobs rise to the top in fact, seven out of our top 10 occupations are from health care. The Best Jobs of 2015 in Services Sector are Dentist Nurse Practitioner Software Developer Physician Dental Hygienist Physical Therapist Computer Systems Analyst Information Security Analyst Registered Nurse Physician Assistant Customer service representatives Sales managers Sales representatives First-line supervisors or managers of retail sales workers Software quality assurance engineers and testers General and operations managers Managers (all other) Accountants and auditors

Skills in high demand over the next five to 10 years

PERMANENT SHIFTS IN THE BUSINESS DEMAND FOR TALENTThe demand for workers is already more pronounced in emerging markets thanks to continued brisk growth in most of these economies. The most dramatic jump in demand, according to survey respondents, will be in emerging Asia, where the need for new employees will rise 22%. Other emerging markets that will see above average growth in demand are Latin America (13%), Middle East/Africa (13%) and Eastern Europe (10%). Demand for talent in Western Europe, by contrast, is projected to grow a rather modest 3.5%, according to our survey. In some industries like business services, energy, travel and transport, and life sciences, stafng demand will actually decline as Europe copes with its ongoing debt crisis and austerity-driven recession. Somewhat stronger job demand is expected in North America, where surveyed executives expect overall employment requirements to rise 6.1% over the next ve to 10 years as a result of more resilient economic conditions.The future demand for talent How will the landscape for talent change over the next five to 10 years?

The talent pool moves from industrial to emerging marketsIn the last decade, rapidly growing nations like India and China siphoned off many low-wage and relatively unskilled manufacturing jobs from the developed world, causing dramatic dislocations. In the coming decade, these nations will move up the skills ladder as they improve access to high-quality education. A demographic bulge, accelerating economic growth and technology-enabled training will also contribute to the dramatic rise in the number of college-trained talent developing markets are expected to produce. Of the major emerging markets, the fastest annual talent pool growth will be in India (7.3%), followed by Brazil (5.6%), Indonesia (4.9%), Turkey (4.7%) and China (4.6%). But for many developed countries, particularly in Europe, the next decade will see a further slowdown in population growth and continued aging of the workforce. Paradoxically, the biggest losers may be economies that have made the greatest strides in tapping potential talent by increasing access to education and raising labor market participation, since they will have less scope to boost talent supply. At 1.4% and 1.3% a year, respectively, the US and Canada will lead the G7 in annual talent growth, while France (0.9%), UK (0.7%), Italy (0.5%), Japan (0.4%) and Germany (0%) will lag. The impact of the global distribution of talent will be dramatic. Already, over half of the worlds college graduates (54%) come from the top emerging markets (the E7: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey), compared with 46% from the industrialized world (the G7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and US). Over the next decade, the percentage of college graduates will rise to 60% in the E7some 217 million workers, as opposed to 143 million in the developed world. Perhaps most tellingly, China will overtake the US as the country with the largest single pool of educated talent.Growth in the college-educated talent pool

Source: Oxford EconomicsSize of college-educated talent pool

The mismatch between supply and demand for talent in 2021

Global Heat Map The gap between the growth in demand and the growth in supply of talent, 2011 to 2021 (Red indicates a trend deficit, green a trend surplus, yellow a broad balance. Numbers show trend growth as annual percentages.)

According to estimates of ICRA management services, Indias construction industry will need 33 million more skilled workers such as crane operators, electricians, welders, masons etc; the textile and clothing industry will need 26 million workers who would include loom and sewing machines operators: the auto industry would need 35 more millions workers in various trades.14 Forbes15 has made projections of most critical job skills that would be required in 2013 which are in the areas of,

The above listing is in descending order of jobs on offer in the year 2013 under these broad headings. The projections made by Forbes suggest broad out areas of each of the above listed skills. Thus the institutions who are engaged in vocational and skill development training have to build such capacities according to their own competence and resources which are capable of meeting the emerging requirements in their area of expertise to cater to the immediate as well as future requirements. Set/ups at apex level like Skill Development Council, Skill Development Board and NSDC need to identify trades and within broad areas of disciplines for which the training institutions in private sector and public sector should be working for capacity building and incentivize such efforts.

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Recommendations: The qualification for the skilling the Labour Ministry wishes skilling to link artisans, the unorganized sector, dropouts and the like. In the scheme of HRD, skilling would start in class 9 and thus would exclude 40 per cent of the targeted youth of 500 million. The formulation of Planning Commission is supportive of the stance of Labour Ministry. Setting of occupational standards- In the view of Labour Ministry, occupational standard be laid down by skill councils and notified by government. In the view of Planning Commission, the job of notification be left to Planning Commission. Labour Ministry is of the view that the job of notification is that of government and not of Planning Commission. Assessment, accredition and certification. In the view of Planning Commission and HRD, the job needs to be left jointly with industry and regulatory body. Labour Ministry has a different take. The matter has been left to the Prime Ministers Council and the council has sought the advice of Advisor to the council.