mapping and modeling affected areas by environment and climate stresses: egypt case study

Modeling the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Arab World : The Case of Egypt

MAPPING AND MODELING AFFECTED AREAS BY ENVIRONMENT AND CL IMATE S TRESSES

EGYPT CASE STUDY

DR . WA DI D ER I A N

APRIL 18, 2016

CONRAD - CAIRO, EGYPT

The League of Arab States Geographical Information Room

LAS AGIR Hosted by AWC

Expected Outputs

Agro-Climatic Zones Map of Egypt;

Mapping Climate and Environment Stress on Vegetation Cover

(Land degradation, drought stress, long term drought “SPEI” - different scales)

Conduct Field Survey Study for Validation and Build Database

Mapping Major Characteristics in Pilot Areas,

(physiography and soils, land degradation, urban areas, Agro climatic zones, vegetation).

Map Water Requirements

Build Geo-statistical maps (Actual Et, Water Requirements , Soil salinity, Soil Texture and Water quality)

Extrapolation of Calibrated Geo-statistical Water Requirement Map with Estimated and prepare Egypt Water

Requirements Maps in Districts (ElMarkas); and

Build Water Budget - Future Scenarios



Modeling Steps

Step 1. Identifying Affected Areas

Step 2. Mapping and Modeling Hot Spot Areas

Step 3. Building Egypt Water Requirements Map




During this step

Major products that allow mapping estimated water requirement and cover all Egyptian irrigated

areas such As Agro-climatic Zones will be produced ;

Another set of Climate and Environment Stress on vegetation cover such as Land degradation,

drought stress, long term drought “SPEI”, will be mapped and modeled; and

Areas affected by Climate and Environment Stress will be identified






Precipitation 50 km

Mean Temperature

50 km

ET 50 km

Land Cover/ Land Use

MODIES Data1 km Drought stress

Land Degradation

SPEI

General Water Requirement Estimation

Soils

Most affected areas (Hot Spots)

Identifying affected areasFor field Study and their

major characteristics

Urban areas

Population Density

Agro Climatic Zones

Length of growing period

Soil Moisture regime

Soil Temperature regime

ProcessTimeStat soft ware and Envi




During this step

Identify Hot Spot areas by Climate and Environment Stress Model and Water Quality and Quantity

Produce detailed Climate-Environment Stress maps on selected pilot areas Detailed crop mapswill be produced ;

Field Survey will be conducted to identify the major characteristics of the pilot areas, such asphysiography and soils, land degradation, urban areas, Agro climatic zones, vegetation waterrequirements.




Precipitation10 km

Mean Temperature 10 km

ET10 km

Land Cover/ Land Use

MODIES Data250 m

Drought stress

Land Degradation

SPEI

Field Study General Water Requirement

Estimation

Physiography and Soils

Field StudySoils and Land degradation StudiesWater Q&Q studiesVegetation cover studiesSocio-economic survey

For the Most affected areas by Environment

and Climate Stresses Urban areas

Agro Climatic Zones

Length of growing period

Soil Moisture regime

Soil Temperature

regime

ProcessTimeStat soft ware and Envi

Identifying affected areasFor field Study and their major characteristics

Areas affected by water quality and quantity (identified by Water Models)

Identify Hot Spot Areas For field Study

Remote Sensing Data

Identify Crops


During this step

Build Geo-statistical maps for each field studied element including; Actual Et, Soil Texture, Soil

salinity, Water Requirements and Water quality

Extrapolation of calibrated pilot areas data to all Egypt

Re-calculate water requirements maps based on celebrated data to all Egyptian districts (ElMarkas)

Map future scenarios for water requirements and water availability





Step 3. Building Egypt Water Requirements Map

Build database and field data inputs

Build Geo-statistical Analysis maps

Water Requirements

Soil salinity

Soil Texture

Actual Et

Extrapolation of calibrated information pilot areas to

all Egypt

Re-calculate water requirements maps for all

Egyptian districts (ElMarkas)

Compare Re-calculate water requirements maps for each district (El Markas) with available water budget for all Egypt

Build future scenarios

Water Quality

MAJOR WORK SPECIFICATION





Step 1. Identifying Affected Areas Work Specifications / Reference

S1Major products that allow mapping estimated water requirement and cover all Egyptian irrigated areas such As Agro-climatic Zones will be produced

S11 Cut on the study area and appropriate it in a suitable format to study different applications

S111 Monthly Mean Temperature T

Source: Climate Research Unit (CRU) Version: 3.24 (1901-2014)Format: Net common Format (NETCDF) Resolution : 0.5 Degree ( about 50 Km2)

S112 Total monthly Precipitation P

S113 Monthly mean Penman Evapo-transpiration ET

S114 Reviewing the calculated Eto data of the studied areas

S115 Soil Temperature regime after, USDA Soil Taxonomy 2006,Van Wambeke 1982

S116 Length of growing period after, FAO 1983

S117 Soil Moisture regime after, USDA Soil Taxonomy 2006,Van Wambeke 1982

S118 Agro Climatic Zones after, Eltom and Kevie 2004

S12 Another set of Climate and Environment Stress on vegetation cover such as Land degradation, drought stress, long term drought “SPEI”, will be mapped and modeled

S121Drought stress MODIS – NDVI and MODIS 1 km – LST, after, Kogen (1995) , Thenkabail et

al (2004) and European Commission (2006)

S122Land Degradation

Using MODIS 1km, for time-series analysis. TimeStats software package.(Udelhoven, 2006).

S123 The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) SPEI uses the monthly difference between precipitation and PET. This

represents a simple climatic water balance



Step 1. Identifying Affected Areas Refferance and or Source

S13 Areas affected by Climate and Environment Stress to be identified

S131Land Cover/ Land Use

Source: FAO, GLC _2014 (based on satalitte data 2010) resolution 300m

S132Soils and identify potential soil salinity areas

Collecting available recent soil profiles

S133 General Water Requirement Estimation

1-collecting data on the distribution of crops in winter and summer seasons for each district (El Markaz Level)

2-producing a land cover map of the Nile delta and Nile Valley

3. Calculating Water Requirements

S134Urban areas

Source: FAO, GLC _2014 (based on satellite data 2010) resolution 300m

S135

Population Density The Population Estimator, designed by the Geospatial Research and Spatial Services Program (GRASP) at CDC/ATSDR

S136

Identify the most affected areas (Hot Spots) Using GIS to identify the most affected areas with drought severity, land degradation severity, land use, and soil salinity maps

S14 Identifying affected areas for field Study and their major characteristics

S2 Step 2. Mapping and Modeling Affected Areas by Water ShortageStudy affected areas (10% of total agriculture area)

S21 In this stage Model and Water Quality and Quantity model will be crossed and most effected areas by the 2 models will be selected for field studies

S22 Run climate model on the affected area in Egypt for future (2010 -2050) on 10 Km Res.


Source: Downscale of CIMP5 model of scenario Rcp. 4.5. for the period (2010-2050) with resolution 10Km using the Regional Climate model (RegCM 4)


S213Monthly mean Penman Evapotranspiration ET

S214Reviewing the calculated Eto data of the studied areas

S215 Soil Temperature regime after, USDA Soil Taxonomy 2006,Van Wambeke 1982

S216 Length of growing period after, FAO 1983

S217 Soil Moisture regime after, USDA Soil Taxonomy 2006,Van Wambeke 1982

S218 Agro Climatic Zonesafter, Eltom and Kevie 2004


S221Drought stress

MODIS – NDVI and MODIS 250 m – LST, after, Kogen (1995) , Thenkabail et al (2004) and European Commission (2006)

S222 Land DegradationUsing MODIS 250 m, for time-series analysis. The time series calculations were carried outusing the TimeStats software package. which was specifically developed for analyzing long-term hyper-temporal satellite data archives (Udelhoven, 2006).

S223 The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)

SPEI uses the monthly difference between precipitation and PET. This represents a simple climatic water balance. SPEI will calculated from projected future climate data on the affected area Egypt during the period (2010-2050) and analyzed it to assess the projected drought stress periods



S24Field Study for selected areas (10% of total agriculture area)

S241 Build flexible grid system to be used for the studies using GPS and prepare field maps

S242 Prepare report on the main crops on each hot spot area

S243Design sheets for each type of required survey (crops/soils/land degradation/water/socio-economy/ near rural community)

S244Select and train field groups on each survey type

S245 Identify logistics and field requirements

S246 Conduct Land Use survey Source: FAO, GLC _2014 (based on satellite data 2010) resolution 300m

S247Conduct Soils survey in mini pits (60 cm depth) and collect samples

Collecting of available recent soil profiles and analyze collected soil samples

S248 Collect water samples 1. collecting data on the distribution of crops in winter and summer seasons

for each district (El Markaz Level)

2. producing a land cover map of the Nile delta and Nile Valley

3. Calculating Water Requirements

S249 Study actual ET on grid system



S3 Building Egypt Water Requirements Map

S31 Analyze field data

S311 Build database for all field sheetsSource: FAO, GLC _2014 (based on satellite data 2010) resolution 300m

S312 Field Data inputs The Population Estimator, designed by the Geospatial Research and Spatial Services Program (GRASP) at CDC/ATSDR

S313Build Geo-statistical maps for each field studied element including:

Using GIS to identify the most affected areas with drought severity, land degradation severity, land use, and soil salinity maps

Actual Et, Soil Texture, Soil salinity,

Water Requirements, and Water quality

S314 Extrapolation of calibrated pilot areas data to all Egypt and Re-calculate water requirements maps for all Egyptian districts (ElMarkas)

S315 Compare Re-calculate water requirements maps for each district (El Markas) with available water budget and build future scenarios

S32 Reports



ACTION PLAN





Step 1. Identifying Affected Areas 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12S1 Major products that allow mapping estimated water requirement and cover all Egyptian irrigated areas such As Agro-climatic

Zones will be produced

S11 Cut on the study area and appropriate it in a suitable format to study different applications



S113 Monthly mean Penman Evapo-transpiration ET

S114 Reviewing the calculated Eto data of the studied areas

S115 Soil Temperature regime

S116 Length of growing period

S117 Soil Moisture regime

S118 Agro Climatic Zones


S121 Drought stress

S122 Land Degradation

S123 standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)

S13 Areas affected by Climate and Environment Stress to be identified

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

S131 Land Cover/ Land Use

S132Soils

S133General Water Requirement Estimation

S134Urban areas

S135Population Density

S136Most affected areas (Hot Spots)

S14 Identifying affected areas for field Study and their major characteristics



S2 Step 2. Mapping and Modeling Affected Areas by Water Shortage

13 1415 16 1718 19 20 21 22 2324 25 26 2728 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

Study affected areas (10% of total agriculture area) _

S21 In this stage Model and Water Quality and Quantity model will be crossed and most effected areas by the 2 models will be selected for field studies

S22 Run climate model on the affected area in Egypt for future (2010 -2050) on 10 Km Res.



S213

Monthly mean Penman Evapotranspiration ET

S214

Reviewing the calculated Etodata of the studied areas

S215 Soil Temperature regime

S216 Length of growing period

S217 Soil Moisture regime

S218 Agro Climatic Zones


S221 Drought stress

S222 Land Degradation

S223The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)



S24 Field Study for selected areas (10% of total agriculture area)

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

S241 Build flexible grid system to be used for the studies using GPS and prepare field maps

S242 Prepare report on the main crops on each hot spot area

S243 Design sheets for each type of required survey (crops /soils /land degradation /water/socio-economy/ near rural community)

S244 Select and train field groups on each survey type

S245 Identify logistics and field requirements

S246 Conduct Land Use survey identify crops

S247 Conduct Soils survey in mini pits (60 cm depth) and collect samples and analysis

S248 Collect water samples for analysis

S249 Study actual ET on grad system

S3 Building Egypt Water Requirements Map

S31 Analyze field data

S311 Build database for all field sheets

S312 Field Data inputs

S313 Build Geo-statistical maps for each field studied element including:

Actual Et, Water Requirements , Soil salinity, Soil Texture, and Water quality



13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

S314 Extrapolate calibrated pilot areasto all Egypt and Re-calculatewater requirements maps for allEgyptian districts (ElMarkas)

S315 Compare Re-calculate waterrequirements maps for eachdistrict (El Markas) with availablewater budget and build futurescenarios

S32 Reports





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mapping and modeling affected areas by environment and climate stresses: egypt case study

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