mapping the impact of welfare reform and universal credit, with your own data
TRANSCRIPT
About Policy in Practice
We make the welfare system simple to understand, so people can make the decisions that are right for them.
Consultancy
SoftwarePolicy
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Targeting Support: Who will Welfare Reforms hit hardest?
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• Context: How to co-ordinate limited support, as demand increases?
• Approach: A detailed Impact Assessment for all reforms, today and tomorrow.
• Outcomes: Better targeted support that has a tangible impact on behaviour.
The Challenge• We need to understand the impact of all welfare
changes, to better co-ordinate activity.
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Chris Gibbs, Birmingham City Council
We want the council to move beyond sticking plaster solutions. If we can promote work and independence by understanding who is impacted by welfare reforms and working closely with partners, we will have more resources available for people that still need our support. We have an obligation to protect and support the most vulnerable
Context: Birmingham & Leeds
The Scale of Birmingham• Size: Over 1m residents• Diversity: Population, Geography & Affluence• Unemployment: 5.9% vs 2.5% nationally;
30,000 JSA claimant count, 2nd highest• Housing: 56% o/occ, 24% social, 20% PRS• Politically Active: Largest Local Authority in
Europe, with 40 wards and 120 active local councillors
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Context: The local authority
The Local Authority:• Co-ordinates activity among stakeholders• May be a Social Landlord• Is responsible for Universal Credit support• Has Reduced budgets to deliver support now
and in the future
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Context: The local authority
Common Actions• Established partnerships with stakeholders• Has a focus on UC implementation– A single portal for feeding back issues on UC to DWP
within the formal monitoring process– Shared training and learning sessions with JCP work
coaches from each of the 12 sites• However…
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Our approach:Using local data insights effectively
SHBE
Universal Benefit Calculator
See the impact of specific and cumulative reforms at an aggregate and a household level
A detailed impact assessment for Cabinet members that informs targeted and tailored local welfare support
Any Questions
?
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benefit cap
Under-occupying LHA cap
Council Tax Reduction
CTRS
Tax Credit cuts
lower UC higher UC Better off in Work
# of households affected by multiple reforms
No impact 1 reform
2 reforms
AA1 0 0 7 20 TBC 9 16 32 8 21 7AA4 1 0 59 38 TBC 21 25 55 10 44 25AA11 1 19 45 99 TBC 68 61 143 47 113 47AA16 0 0 0 0 TBC 0 1 1 1 0 0AB1 0 16 25 74 TBC 30 46 99 36 70 34AB2 2 39 89 224 TBC 37 123 246 109 189 96AB3 0 31 41 140 TBC 38 88 134 78 128 55AB4 0 75 166 341 TBC 106 190 456 148 327 163AB5 3 129 73 336 TBC 136 180 432 150 318 155AB6 14 266 630 1355 TBC 406 899 1456 834 1354 575AB7 17 629 346 1839 TBC 780 1038 2235 822 1636 838AB8 43 442 1083 2662 TBC 1140 1306 2786 912 2119 1346AB9 51 968 979 3466 TBC 1481 1614 3103 1411 3085 1676
Who has been impacted by
reforms to date?
What will be the impact of
Universal Credit?
Who has been hit by multiple reforms?
The depth of our analysis goes even deeper, to
household level
Explain a complex picture to CabinetDetailed picture of welfare reform at household level
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Tax Credit cuts?
Context: Working age households:
29%
20%
5%
33%
13%
In workNot in workNot in work, carerNot in work, disabledNot in work, lone parent
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Reduction in the Benefit Cap:
756 7,285
At £26k At £20k
• A reduced Benefit Cap would 10x the number of capped households
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Reduction of the Benefit Cap:Weekly benefit cap amount
£0-20 £21-40 £41-60 £61-80 £81-100 £101-150
£151-200
£201-300
£301+
169 161 115 85 76 114 23 12 1
2263
951 955756
10031153
2003 1
£26k £20k
Weekly Benefit Cap Amount
Num
ber o
f Cas
es
Preliminary Findings – Universal Credit
• Universal Credit with full transitional protection would bring the local economy £1.6m each month – an additional £30/month for each working age household on average.
Couple with children Couple without children
Lone parent Single
£32,028
£18,189
£26,956
£15,959
Earnings required for UC to fall to zero
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Changes to Tax Credits• 91% of households in receipt of Working Tax Credit (19,403) will have
a reduced award due to the reduction in the earnings threshold.• 36% of households in receipt of tax credits (20,498) will have a
reduced award due to raising the tax credit taper rate from 41% to 48%.
• 5,852 households in the Work Related Activity Group will lose the WRAG premium, worth £29.05 per week
Changes to ESA
Changes for Young People• 85% of HB recipients aged 18-21 are out of work and will lose
automatic entitlement to HB• 4,042 young people aged 18-21 will be expected to ‘earn or learn’
(includes non-dependants)
• 65% of self-employed households have earning below the Minimum Income Floor.
Changes for self-employed People
What would you do differently, if you knew who was impacted, and how?
• Local Authorities face difficult choices– £12bn of cuts with reforms aimed at changing behaviour.– The combined impact on households is changing, complex and confusing.
• The risk is that households won't get the right support– Councils need to better co-ordinate support with partners. – This includes financial support and support toward independence.– Without better co-ordination, and support into employment, there won't be
enough support available to go around.– This will cost the council and taxpayers through impacts on other services.
• We hope that this approach that will help you to– Better co-ordinate support and prepare for reforms– Explain a complex picture, both to cabinet and to the end user– target and tailor support effectively – Have a tangible and measured impact on behaviourwww.policyinpractice.co.uk
Better Outcomes: A better Council Tax Scheme and operational plan for UC
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Better partnership workingBetter preparation for Universal CreditBetter targeted and personalised support
Better able to map local support onto needA new Council Tax Support Scheme
VS
Support that leads to savings:Targeted and Tailored Support – letters that engage people
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How do you show the impact to the person in a meaningful way?
JSAChild Tax
Credit
ESAHousing Benefit
Working Tax Credit
Income Support
Engage people and change behaviour
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Next Steps
We will send you:• This webinar recording• This slide deck
You can request:• Full analysis and data insights that Policy in
Practice delivered for Leeds CC
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