mapping the northern rivers housing market to 2036 dr tony gilmour northern rivers housing forum...
TRANSCRIPT
Mapping the Northern Rivers Housing Market to
2036
Dr Tony GilmourNorthern Rivers Housing ForumLismore: 14 September 2011
Presentation Overview
• Demographic changes
• Regional housing supply/demand and affordability issues
• Social impacts of housing market challenges
Northern Rivers Housing Market
• Study area
Focus on 7 council areas of the Northern Rivers Housing Forum
6 in ‘Far North Coast’ NSW Planning region
No NSW regional planning authority
• Housing market characteristics:
Series of distinct housing sub-markets
Dispersed population, mainly living in villages and smaller towns
Greatest growth in coastal areas
1
Demographic Changes
Demographic Trends
• Population drivers:
Impact from rapid growth of South East Queensland
Pacific Coast Highway Upgrade
Sea- and tree- change migration
By 2036 population +39% (Sydney 40%, Brisbane +64%)
• Trends:
Ageing population - over 65s will double by 2026 to 32%
Fewer young people2001-2005
Population Increase, 2001-2036
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Ballina
Byron
Kyogle
Lismore
Richmond Valley
Tweed
Clarence Valley
Population Change, 2001-2036
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Ballina
Byron
Kyogle
Lismore
Richmond Valley
Tweed
Clarence Valley
2
Housing Supply, Demand and Affordability
Housing Demand and Supply
Far North Coast- Housing Demand
Estimated population, 2036 315,600
Dwelling occupancy 1.91
Properties required, 2036 165,000
Current housing stock 95,000
New dwellings required
2036
70,000
Sensitivity analysis on new dwellings required
Population in 2036 +5% 79,000
Occupancy rates -5% 79,000
Both of the above 88,000
2036.Table 6: Housing demand to 2036 Source: NSW Government (2006, 2009b) for first five rows
Far North Coast- Housing supply
Ballina 8,400
Byron 2,600
Kyogle 3,000
Lismore 8,000
Richmond
Valley
9,900
Tweed 19,100
New dwellings supplied by
203651,000
• Housing demand forecast based on growing population and reducing occupancy. NSW Government estimate need 70,000 dwellings by 2036
• Housing supply hard to estimate. NSW Government consider 51,000 possible, though UDIA and MacroPlan challenge these numbers, especially in Tweed and Byron ‘hot spots’
• Nationwide, supply not keeping pace with demand. Estimated 90,000 dwellings pa shortfall. This is the main driver of affordability problems
Housing Affordability• Relative lack of some higher
income jobs
• Far lower median incomes than Sydney or NSW, esp. Kyogle and Clarence Valley
• Rents lower than Sydney and NSW, though less gap in sales prices
• High levels of households in rental stress. Byron, Tweed and Balina higher than Sydney
• Richmond and Kyogle are relatively affordable for renters and purchasers
• Moderate income households (80-120% levels) also in housing stress - in Byron Shire 49% renters; 37% purchasers
Rental prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10
Ballina
Byron
Clarence Valley
Kyogle
Lismore
Richmond Valley
Tweed
Sydney SD
NSW
Weekly rents in $
Property Purchase Prices
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10
Ballina
Byron
Clarence Valley
Kyogle
Lismore
Richmond Valley
Tweed
Sydney SD
NSW
Affordability and Housing Stock
Area
Owner
occupied
%
Social
rental
%
Private
rental
%
Ballina 64.9 4.5 24.2
Byron 59.2 1.9 27.9
Kyogle 73.1 2.5 18.5
Lismore 65.4 4.2 24.4
Richmond
Valley
67.2 4.6 21.8
Tweed 66.3 3.0 23.0
Clarence Valley 70.5 3.3 20.5
Sydney SD 61.1 5.1 33.8
NSW 63.4 5.0 31.6
• Built form dominated by detached houses
• Higher owner occupation than in Sydney or across NSW
• Social housing rental low, especially in certain council areas
• Strong presence of community housing - mainly North Coast Community Housing (835 units). Housing NSW down to 2,470 units after estate stock transfer in Byron of over 200 units
• Low impact from National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS)
Alternative Dwellings
• Caravan parks and holiday villages a traditional source of affordable housing, especially in coastal areas
• Competition for land driven by sea change migration and tourism
• Loss of alternative dwellings a major issue (420 sites lost 2001-2004 in region: research by Caroline Squires)
3
Social Impacts
Homelessness
• Chart shows ‘primary’ homeless - typically rough sleepers and those in improvised dwellings
• Highest concentrations of homeless population are in areas in the region with greatest housing stress
• 51% of the regions entire homeless population are in Tweed Heads
• In 2006 region had 3% of NSW population by 6% of homeless
Social Needs
• SEIFA measure of social disadvantage used by ABS (income, education, housing, unemployment)
• Several areas in region in top 40% of NSW disadvantage - especially in Lismore and Ballina council areas
• Challenges for human service provision across the region
• Isolated areas of disadvantage away from jobs and transport
• Rural isolation, especially in areas of declining population
