march 3, 2018 gulfstream park...analysis: we’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and...
TRANSCRIPT
866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737)
March 3, 2018Gulfstream Park
Meet the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth ContendersBy Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com
Millie Ball, XBTV.com - @camillayakteen
Good Magic: It’s time for last year’s Two-Year-Old Champion, Good Magic, to start getting
serious about the Kentucky Derby. Following his victory in last November’s Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile, Good Magic was given seven weeks of R&R in Ocala before getting back to the
worktab in late January. And while his 119-day layoff may not be viewed as an ideal way of
coming into this race, he has a pair of champions in his corner – trainer Chad Brown and
jockey Jose Ortiz were recognized as the best at their craft at this year’s Eclipse Awards.
Free Drop Billy: One of two Grade 1 winners in the field (the other being Good
Magic), Free Drop Billy enters the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth off a solid runner-up
performance in Gulfstream’s Grade 2 Holy Bull on February 3. Despite being beaten
5 ½-lengths, Free Drop Billy showed a new dimension in the Holy Bull, sitting closer
to the pace than ever before. The new tactics paid off, as he finished nearly 8-lengths
clear of the third-place finisher. His sire, Union Rags, won the 2012 edition of this race.
Strike Power: Can immense talent overcome inexperience? We’ll find out Saturday. The
knocks against Strike Power are obvious. He’s only run twice and Saturday will be the first
time he races around two turns or beyond 7-furlongs. On raw talent alone, though, he’s as
good as it gets. He won the Grade 3 Swale on February 3 with ease and Gulfstream’s top
rider, Luis Saez, bypassed the opportunity to ride Free Drop Billy in this race to stick with
Strike Power.
Marconi: As a yearling, Marconi sold at auction for $2 million. And, as you can imagine, such
a large sales price is a lot of hype to live up to. The jury is still out on Marconi. He broke
his maiden by 5 ½-lengths at Aqueduct in December and was a decent third, beaten just 2
½-lengths, in the Grade 3 Withers on February 3. He continues to improve and may find the
South Florida weather to his liking. A win would give trainer Todd Pletcher a record fourth
Xpressbet Fountain of Youth victory.
Machismo: One of the most visually impressive winners of the Gulfstream Championship Meet,
Machismo broke his maiden by 11 ½-lengths on February 3. Such a large win margin is enough
to pique any horseplayer’s interest, and the way he did it was visually impressive. This is a gigantic
step in class, but with More Than Ready and Smart Strike in his immediate pedigree, he should be
able to handle today’s extra distance. .
Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Expert Picks
Jason Blewitt
Gulfstream Park
@jasonblewitt30
Good Magic
Free Drop Billy
He Takes Charge
Strike Power
Alfredo Alfonzo
Gulfstream Park
@videohipico
Good Magic
Marconi
Promises Fulfilled
Storm Runner
Millie Ball
XBTV
@camillayakteen
Good Magic
He Takes Charge
Machismo
Free Drop Billy
Zoe Cadman
XBTV
@zoecadman
Good Magic
Machismo
Free Drop Billy
He Takes Charge
Megan Devine
Santa Anita Park
@missmegandevine
Good Magic
Free Drop Billy
Strike Power
He Takes Charge
Jeremy Plonk
Xpressbet
@HorsePlayerNow
Free Drop Billy
Good Magic
Marconi
Storm Runner
Johnny D
Xpressbet
@XBJohnnyD
Good Magic
Free Drop Billy
Gotta Go
Marconi
Dustin Fabian
Xpressbet
@Xpressbet
Free Drop Billy
Good Magic
Strike Power
Marconi
Jeff Siegel
XBTV
@jsiegelracing
Good Magic
Strike Power
Free Drop Billy
Machismo
Aaron Vercruysse
XBTV
@LongshotAaronV
Good Magic
Marconi
Gotta Go
Free Drop Billy
Stan Salter
Maryland Jockey Club
@MDHorseRadio
Good Magic
He Takes Charge
Free Drop Billly
Strike Power
Anthony Stabile
Xpressbet Radio on HRRN
@TheBigAStabile
Strike Power
Good Magic
Marconi
Free Drop Billy
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Jockey
3.3.18
3.10.18
3.10.18
3.10.18
3.17.18
3.17.18
Prep
Fountain of Youth
Gotham
San Felipe
Tampa Bay Derby
Jeff Ruby
Rebel
Track
Gulfstream
Aqueduct
Santa Anita
Tampa Bay Downs
Turfway
Oaklawn
0% Takeout Promotion
0% Takeout on the Late Pick 4
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Visit Xpressbet.com for a Full List
All-Time Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Record – Today’s Trainers
Post
123456789
10
Trainer
Mark Casse
Dale Romans
Reade Baker
Mark Hennig
Dale Romans
Chad Brown
Ian Wilkes
Todd Pletcher
Anthony Quartarolo
Dale Romans
Horse
He Takes Charge
Free Drop Billy
Peppered
Strike Power
Storm Runner
Good Magic
Gotta Go
Marconi
Machismo
Promises Fulfilled
Starts
1
7
1
1
7
1
3
14
-
7
Win
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
-
0
Place
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
3
-
1
Show
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
-
0
Win ROI
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$2.60
-
$2.60
AVG Odds
20.30/1
40.56/1
4.10/1
29.50/1
40.56/1
3.40/1
14.47/1
7.64/1
-
40.56/1
Fountain of YouthStats and Trends
All-Time Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Record – Today’s Jockeys
Post
123456789
10
Jockey
Tyler Gaffalione
Robby Albarado
Nik Juarez
Luis Saez
Joel Rosario
Jose Ortiz
Chris Landeros
Javier Castellano
Albin Jimenez
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Horse
He Takes Charge
Free Drop Billy
Peppered
Strike Power
Storm Runner
Good Magic
Gotta Go
Marconi
Machismo
Promises Fulfilled
Starts
-
-
-
4
4
2
-
7
-
2
Win
-
-
-
2
0
0
-
1
-
0
Place
-
-
-
0
0
2
-
2
-
0
Show
-
-
-
1
2
0
-
1
-
0
Win ROI
-
-
-
$5.95
$0.00
$0.00
-
$1.49
-
$0.00
AVG Odds
-
-
-
5.93/1
4.65/1
2.15/1
-
8.74/1
-
5.65/1
87
28 28 28 28 27 27 25 24 19 12 6 3
1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 11 12
Winning Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Post PositionsSince 1991
Post
Starters
Winners 5 2 2 5 1 7 1 3 2 0 0 0
Xpressbet Fountain of Youth$400,000 - Grade 2 Post Time: 4:14 PM ET
4YO+, Fillies & Mares 1 1/2 Miles Turf
Our Picks
1. GOOD MAGIC 2. FREE DROP BILLY
3. MARCONI4. STRIKE POWER
Rekindling the ‘Magic’ Analysis: We’ve compiled a dozen of the sport’s best and brightest handicappers in an
effort to pinpoint the best way to bet the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes. And despite
different approaches, backgrounds and techniques, the majority of our team landed on GOOD
MAGIC as their Xpressbet Fountain of Youth pick. But how can you make money betting such
a low-priced favorite? It’s all about picking the right horses underneath. Let’s take a look.
Main Contenders: As expected, GOOD MAGIC was selected as the ‘top pick’ by nine of
our handicappers, meaning Team Xpressbet thinks it’ll be a major upset if anyone else hits
the wire first. Despite being off the last four months, last year’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
winner seems poised to pick up where he left off in November. He’s been working well,
drew perfectly and should get a cozy stalking trip from just behind the speed. Two of our
handicappers opted for FREE DROP BILLY. Maybe they saw some stats in the right pane
that don’t necessarily favor GOOD MAGIC? ‘BILLY ran a solid race in the G2 Holy Bull
on February 3 and won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October. He should
benefit from an inside draw and expected fast pace. Unfortunately for him, top Gulfstream
rider, Luis Saez, opted to ride STRIKE POWER instead. STRIKE POWER is 2-for-2 and
won the G3 Swale last out. This will be his first try around two-turns, which will test the
limits of this speedy son of Speightstown. Stamina won’t be an issue for Todd Pletcher’s
MARCONI. In fact, he’s never run in a race this short. His issue is speed and he’ll simply
need to run much faster than ever before if he’s going to spring an upset.
Value Plays: Recent-maiden breaker, HE TAKES CHARGE, caught the eye of several of our
handicappers. He broke his maiden impressively here on February 10 and he comes from a
strong family. His dam, Elarose, is a half sister to Grade 1 winners Will Take Charge and Take
Charge Indy. He figures to get a fast pace to close into and at 20/1 on the morning line, he’s
the type of horse that deserves to be part of your Trifecta, Superfecta or Super Hi-5.
$100 Wagering Strategy:
• $5 Trifecta Key: GOOD MAGIC over FREE DROP BILLY, MARCONI, HE TAKES
CHARGE, STRIKE POWER ($60)
• $30 Exacta: GOOD MAGIC over FREE DROP BILLY ($30)
• $10 Exacta: FREE DROP BILLY over GOOD MAGIC ($10)
Stats & Trends
Last 5 Fountain of Youth Winners:Year Horse Jockey2017 Gunnevera J. Castellano 2016 Mohaymen J. Alvarado2015 Itsaknockout* L. Saez2014 Wildcat Red L. Saez2013 Orb J. Velazquez
*Via Disqualification
Fountain of Youth Snapshot:(Since 1991)Stakes Record (8.5F): 1:41.00 (Sensitive Prince, 1978) Largest Win Margin (8.5F): 8 1/2 (Eskendereya, 2010 & Spectacular Bid, 1979) Winning Favorites: 11 (39%) Wire-to-Wire Winners: 7 (25%)Average Win Odds: 9.00/1 Average Exacta ($2): $91.92Average Trifecta ($1): $271.91
Know ThisDon’t Crown Him Yet : Betting against Good Magic? Recent history is on your side. Sub-even money favorites are just 1-for-5 in the Fountain of Youth since 2007, with Violence (0.60/1) and Nobiz Like Showbiz (0.60/1) among those defeated at short odds.
No ‘Need for Speed:’ Despite a reputation of being a ‘speed favoring’ track, the last three editions of the Fountain of Youth were won from off the pace. Last year’s winner, Gunnevera, closed from last, as many as 13-lengths off the pace.
Home Field Advantage: Since 1996, 18-of-22 Fountain of Youth winners had previously raced that year at Gulfstream Park. Additionally, just 3-of-22 winners were making their seasonal debut in the race.
?
Race 14 (Post Time: 6:09PM ET) 3YO, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
Ticket Time!Recommended Picks for the Day’s Biggest Bets
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Race 11: 1, 6, 11
Race 12: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10
Race 13: 1, 4, 7, 8, 12
Race 14: 2, 6
Total Ticket Cost ($.50 Base): $75.00
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Race 9: 5, 11
Race 10: 1, 4, 5, 7
Race 11: 1, 6
Race 12: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10
Race 13: 1, 4, 7, 8, 12
Race 14: 6
Total Ticket Cost ($.20 Base): $80.00