marco respinti, «need a stronger tea to get a party going», in «longitude: the italian monthly on...

8/6/2019 Marco Respinti, «Need a Stronger Tea to Get a Party Going», in «Longitude: The Italian Monthly on World Affairs», anno I, n. 5 Roma giugno 2011, pp. 49-53

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/marco-respinti-need-a-stronger-tea-to-get-a-party-going-in-longitude 1/3

USAElections2012

Today more than ever the Republican Party’spreparations for the November 6, 2012 presi-dential elections are long and laborious. Due to

the system that selects candidates through the pri-maryelections,all presidentialcampaignsin theUnit-ed States are long and laborious. And with the renew-al of Congress every two years, there is almost never arespite in the campaign.

The race for the Republican Party began during the election campaign for the 112th Congress, whichtookplace between2009 and2010.Butit canalso findtraces that go back to the presidential election of No-vember 4, 2008, in which Barack Obama led the De-mocratsto theWhiteHouse,andevenbackto thetwoterms Republican GeorgeW. Bush.

Not even his political opponents and detractorscandenythatthe Bushpresidencywasa strongand in-

cisiveone.For betteror worse,the eightyearschangedhowtheUnitedStatesactedintheworldandhowit wasperceived internationally. They also significantly changed the Republican Party. The political-culturalaxis during the Bush years – backed by the neocon-servatives (who did not automatically constitute theelectoral base of the Republican Party) – moved thecountry’s center of gravity to the right. It is sympto-matically evidenced by the fact that to win the 110thCongress, the Democratic Party was obliged in themidterm elections of November 7, 2006 to run an un-

usual number of moderates and centrists, and eveseveral war veterans who had credentials that woulappeal to more conservative voters.

For the Republicans, Bush was an importanthough at times cumbersome precedent, especialduring the most critical and difficult episodes of hidual mandate. In preparing for the 2008 presidentiaelections, it was difficult for Republicans to find a replacement who did not invalidate the important aspectsof hispresidencywhilestillbeingableto elegantdistancehimselffromits mostunappealingelement

Andthisismainlydue tolackof suitablepersonnel.Thchoice fell to Senator John McCain, who of all the Republicans was the most openly critical of Bush. ThuMcCain was unable to offer an especially credible alternative for the conservative electorate, which waneeded to defeat the Democrats.

Butthe 2008electionswerenot merelya scorchinRepublicandefeat.Theywerealsoan opportunityforsignificant changewithinthe party– a healthychang

Inretrospect,the 2007-2008primariesopened th way for new faces and ideas that would significantl“test the waters.” People like Mitt Romney and MikHuckabeeinitiateda dialoguewith theelectoratethain three years has begun to bear unimaginable fruit

withmost conservative membersof the Americanelectorate. But above all, the Republican defeat in 200brought to center stage two events that are now ver

Need a stronger teato get

a party going

The Republicans have been invigoratedby the conservative movement known as the Tea Party.They were hugely successful in the midterm elections

and are now hoping to generate the critical massnecessary to win theWhite House.

Linda Dupere holds asign at the Tax PayerTea Party Rally inConcord, New

Hampshire on April 15,2011.

B R I A N S N Y D E R / R E U T E R S



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compelling: First of all, the former governor of AlaskaSarah Palin, chosen by McCain in 2008 as a running-matefor theWhiteHouse.Secondly,there wasthe TeaParty movement.

For the Republican cause, the choice of Palin wasreally crucial (if one goes by media accounts, the im-portanceseemsto havebeenignored).Itwas probably the most politically astute move made by the party leadership(andMcCain)at atimewhenthe hopeoftri-umphing overObamawere fading.Deployingthe for-mergovernorofAlaska,whois closelyconnectedtotheconservative constituency, made it possible to signif-icantly stop the haemorrhaging of conservative votesfleeing from the “tepid” (by conservatives standards)andeven“hostile”McCain,thus consolidatinganelec-toralbasethat aneventuallyrenewedRepublicanPar-ty could benefit from. The two subsequent years of

American political life confirmed this. The Obamapresidential victory in 2008 was in fact primarily de-

termined by the personal success of the previously unknown senator from Illinois (rather than the Dem-ocratic Party), whowas able to manage his image andrhetoric with great skill and reach out to people whonormallywouldnot vote.WhileObama’slandslide waslargelythe resultof bringingmorepeopletovote,whiletheMcCain-Palinticketsucceededinlimitingthe lossof consensus among the Republican electorate.

Andyet,it wasduringthat electioncampaign– forexample, especially with the policy proposals of theTexas Republican Senator Ron Paul – that we saw thefirst steps of the Tea Party’s massive anti-high taxes

andanti-big governmentmove-ment.

Now the Tea Party has be-cometherealnoveltyofthe cur-rentUS politicalscenewhilesi-multaneously being a thorn inthe side of the Republicans.

Remotely born in 2008, butlaunched as a direct challengeto the Obama Administrationin February 2009, the move-ment appeared as a huge andinformal popular reactionagainst high taxes, runaway government spending and as-tronomical national debt, par-ticularlyseverein a globalcon-text of exceptional economiccrisis.Notonly,but theTeaPar-tywasalso anopenchallengetothe traditional leaders of bothmajorUSparties.But themove-ment’s conservativeorientationdoes not in any case prevent itfromalsocriticizingthe Repub-

lican Party itself if its policies are perceived as being “pro-big government.” In fact, theTea Partiers can beunderstood properly only within the context of thehistory of American conservatism.

TheTeaPartyprovidesthemostcurrentandrobustexpression of conservatism. But it is also the productofpolicyoptionsthathad alreadybegun totake shapefortherulingclassesofthe partybythe 1950s.So today the Tea Party engages in a very peculiar dialogue withthe Republican Party.

If Republicans are currently perceived as a right wing party, or at least more right wing than the De-mocrats, it is because of the conservatives.Within theparty,the movementbeganinthe mid-20thcenturytoconditionallysupport Republicans, votingto the extentthatthe partywouldbe willingto assumecertaincon-victions. It happened the first time with the presiden-tialnominationin1964of ArizonaSenatorBarryGold-

water, strongly supported by the conservative base (it

was the first time that the movement so openly sided with a man of the party, of any party, then the Repub-licans) as well as being held in contempt by the party establishment. It happened again with the New Rightthat brought Ronald Regan to the White House, thistime with less hostility by the party establishment.

Since then, the links between the conservativemovement and the Republican Party have remainedstrong, but not at all taken for granted. And increas-ingly, fromthe 1960sonwards,the weaknessor strengthofRepublicancandidateswasdeterminedbythe sup-portof conservativesstructuredwithina constellation

of organizations, think tanks,lobbies, advocacy groups, cul-tural institutions and influen-tial media outlets.

The same is happening inthe era of the Tea Party. Themassive electoral successachievedby theRepublicans intheelectionsforthe112thCon-gressonNovember2,2010 (theHousewas regainedwitha nearrecord majority for the Repub-licans, the Senate gap was re-duced, and it also won a greatnumberof stategovernors)wasundoubtedlytheworkof theTeaPartiers. On several occasionstheyreplacedthecandidatesof the Republican establishment

with one from their own ranks. And they always set the toneandthemesof theelectioncam-paign, consistently shifting theaverage spectrum of Republi-can electorate to the right.

As a result, the House of Representatives is now dominated by “two rights”: the right wing of “profes-sional”Republicans(thethrustoftheTeaPartyhaspro-gressivelyknockedout themore progressive elementsofthe party)and the“off-siders”electedfrom withinthemovement, who are nominally Republican, but in re-ality quite“independent.”

This is the strength of Republicans in 2012, andalsotheirweakness.Itis theirstrengthbecause itsop-positionto theObama administrationhas giventhema vast majority in the House, and the momentum hasnotstopped.Thatsuccesswas madepossibleby aver-itable new force in the party. But it is also a weaknessbecause theTeaPartyremainsa hard-to-tamea force,moreinclinedto tryto controlthepartythanto becon-trolled by it.

Withinthe sameHouse ofRepresentatives,thetwo“two rights” inevitably show differences in sensitivity and strategy against the Democrats, which could be

useful only if they both learn how to manage them.Moreover, the Tea Pary it is not even a homogenousphenomenon itself. For example, on issues of foreignpolicy differences can be considerable. In addition,thenew movementthat powersthis newseasonoftheRepublican Party, on the one hand, is always, at leastintheory,willingto withdrawits supportforthe party if it disagrees withits general guidelines, so it can endup weakening the challenge to Obama. On the otherhand,itstilllackssophisticationandthe strategicruth-lessness necessaryto triumph inimportantelections,

which in comparison the “professionals” of the Re-

publican Party certainly have.Moreover, the range of election proposals that the

RepublicanPartyhas sofar fieldedtend tooverlap.Allin all, the policy proposals put out since the electioncampaign of 2008 have gained much in terms of visi-bility,but theyalltendtofishinthesamepond– con-servativeswhotendto speakthesamelanguage.Whilethis is certainly what Tea Party wants, it may result ina weakening of all the Rebuplican candidates equally.ThishascertainlybeentrueforHuckabee,andit isnow thecaseforNewtGingrichandMitchDaniels– evenforRon Paul, despite the difference of his being an isola-tionist in foreign policy.

The conservative electorate and theTea Party cer-tainly does not regret the lack of more liberal candi-dates on the Republican side, but all this could even-tually lead to candidates not very different from eachother,thus encouragingthe Democrats.In thegameof the“tworights”thatdominatestheHouse,whatthe Re-

publicansshoulddois toputsomeorderintothenew movement, offer a candidate who can unify the new forces, and get totally behind him or her. But in ordertoaccomplishthisthe establishmentof thepartymustofcoursefirstof allwantit (andthisisstill nota given);it has to decide to give in to the movement or out-siders (even less of a given) and must have the credi-bility (lost through years of trade-offs?) that would al-lowfordraconianbutnecessarychoicesin thenameof a greater good. In short, Republicans need a leader.Otherwise, there is likely to be a debacle due to over-exuberance.

ChairmaBudget CPaul Ryacopy of T Journal wpage stoworries athe FedeBen Bernon the steconomycommittHill, Febr

Pins and jewelry,including some thatreference former

Alaska Governor SarahPalin, are on display atan exhibition booth atthe ConservativePolitical ActionConference (CPAC) inWashington onFebruary 12, 2011.

J O N A T H A N

E R N S T / R E U T E R S



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economic recipe – often spoken of as “neo-Keyne-sianism”– isopposedbya significantpercentageofthe

Americanelectorate,andthis hasgradually beenjoinedbyranksof formerObama supportersdisappointedby the persistence of the economic crisis still affecting millions of American citizens. Opponents of the Oba-maAdministration’spolicyprescriptionsconsider thema continuation of the typical Democratic big-govern-ment runaway spending approach, and therefore theexact oppositeof whatisreallyneededfora healthyre-covery. Everything is attributed directly to the ideo-logical motivations that sustain it, thus transforming thecriticismintoa clashofeconomicschools.Beyondthis scenario – which in many ways remains the pre-rogative of the “insiders” – the average US voter hasbeenunableto perceivethe muchtoutedchange that

was promised, and which would help the country. So,even assuming that the economic and financial crisisstill weighing on Americans was due (also) to the pre-vious President, George W. Bush, assuming that thesolutions proposed by Obama have not yet had thechance to reverse the situation and really fix it, as-suming thatthe economicwoessufferedbyAmericancitizens are to be blamed on a generic “capitalism”rightly or wrongly identified with Republican policy

In many ways, the Republican Party can only losethe presidential elections of 2012 by handing the vic-tory and the second term over to Barack Obama be-cause of its inability to manage its current advantage.

Obama is, in fact, weaker today than when he waselected.TheAmericanelectoratehasnowseenhim op-erate, govern, contradict himself and limp. The rea-soning isvalidfor anyonein power.Obviouslyit iseas-ier to criticize from the standpoint of the opposition.Equally clear is the fact that the person and party incharge always pay the price for national problems,

whether they are accountable for them or not. But inObama’scase,themagnitudeof hopegeneratedbyanunknownpolitician– albeit skillfulat fund-raising andspinning the media, and of course by harshly criticiz-ing the previous administration – is incongruent totheresultsactuallyobtained.Witheachpassingdaythegap between dream and reality grows wider. In a gen-eralcontextsuchas thatof Americanpolitics,in short,

where the personalization of political debate is very strong, Obama is risking a lot.

Hismainweaknessesarestillthe onesthatallowedthe Republican opposition to gain a majority in theHouse of Representatives. And this “shellacking” hasbeen detrimental to his image. Obama’s well known

choicesand noton specificindividualresponsibilitiesof this or that would-be capitalist, the American tax-payergetsthe feelingthat the“Obamarecipe”hasnot

worked – either because of the administration’s inca-pacity to really implement it, or because it is intrinsi-cally wrong. In either case, the electorate’s disap-pointment with Obama has long been palpable. And

whether this is indeed the fault of theWhite House orthe result of general situations well beyond Obama’scontrol, the President will nevertheless pay dearly forthe promises he was unable to keep for whatever rea-sons.

Notwithstanding the initial enthusiasm and apartfrom a few moments of intense sporadic success, themeasure of Obama’s public approval since his elec-tionhasbeeninconstantdecline– bothinnationalandinternational policy.

Obama’s radical lunges in domestic politics sincehisinaugurationhavecertainlystrengthenedhismoreprogressive constituency,but itcan hardlyprovidetheDemocratsthe differenceneededtobeat theRepubli-cans. And the theme of “non-negotiable core princi-ples” which conservatives in general and theTea Par-ty in particular espouse continues to have a strong hold on the American electorate.

Thesumof thetwocold showersproducedbythree years of the Obama Administration – the disappoint-ment because of promises not maintained and thefear of unpopular socio-cultural changes – is accom-panied, moreover, by confusion demonstrated in for-eignpolicy.ThisconfusionpushedformerUSAmbas-sador tothe UN, John Bolton – a man whohas not yetdecided, but is seriously considering a run for the

WhiteHouse– tocall Obama“thefirstpost-Americanpresident”inUS history.ForBolton,the“ObamaDoc-trine” is in fact in opposition to US national interests.

And Bolton calls him “post-American” because of thefactthat hebelievesObamais consciousof thisoppo-sition.While suchserious allegationsobviouslyneed tobesupportedwithfact,theymanageto summonghostsamong an electorate already ideologically averse tothe current policy of theWhite House.

Inthe monthsthatseparatehim fromthe Novem-ber6,2012elections,Obamawillhaveto finda waytoexplain to those who voted for him in 2008, many en-thusiastically,why theirtaxeshavenot beenreduced–indeed, why they have increased for many. He mustalsoexplainwhypublicspendingissteadilyincreasing and why, however painful cutting it may be, the only concretealternativenowon thetableis thatofferedby the Republicans, led by Representative Paul Ryan of

Wisconsin, the combative Chairman of the HouseBudget Committee. Obama will also have to explainhowhe willfinallybe ableto reconcileandadministerthe Army’sannouncedwithdrawalfrom Afghanistaninthefightagainstterrorismby engagingin anotherwar,

in Libya, which for the overwhelming majority of citi-zens is far away, obscure, unpopular and irrelevant to

the national interest.For his part, Obama can count on two successes.

The elimination of Osama bin Laden is the first. Cer-tainlyit wasa hugeaccomplishment ofwhichthePres-identshouldbe proud.Andhe willundoubtedlyuse ittoexpeditethe withdrawaloftroopsfrom Afghanistan(which is not the end of the conflict, but the WhiteHousewillcertainlytry topresentit assuch).Itwillalsoafford him rhetorical fodder on the tenth anniversary ofSeptember11,just weeksbeforethe elections.Yetitshouldbe rememberedthat nocandidatefortheWhiteHousehas everbeenableto winbyrunningonforeignpolicy successes, not even winning a war on theground.So ObamacanonlyeffectivelyexploitOsama’sdeathby“selling”it asa solutionto thedomestic prob-lems that affect Americans every day. And this is pre-cisely his Achilles’ heel.

His second undoubted strength is the disarray of the Republicans.With less than 18 months before thepresidential election, Obama’s best hope is that theRepublicans continue to do exactly what they are do-ing – neutralizing one another.

is President of the Columbia Institute in Milan

andauthorof L’oradei‘TeaParty’.Diariodiunarivoltaamericana

Former US Speaker ofthe House NewtGingrich reacts duringthe 38th annualConservative Political

Action Conference(CPAC) meeting inWashington onFebruary 10, 2011.

L A R R Y D O W N I N G

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marco respinti, «need a stronger tea to get a party going», in «longitude: the italian monthly on...

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