maria zieba - pork trade update
TRANSCRIPT
Minnesota Pork Congress 2016
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Maria C. ZiebaManager of International AffairsNational Pork Producers Council
January 19, 2016
NPPC
Advocacy
U.S. Executive
Branch
U.S. Congress
U.S. & Foreign Private SectorInternationa
l Organizatio
ns
Foreign Government
s
U.S. & Foreign Media
U.S. Judiciary
NPPC Successes 2015• COOL pork and beef labeling provision repealed
• Retaliation from Canada, Mexico avoided!• Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) passes Congress
• Sets objectives for Free Trade Agreements, congressional review of deals, up-or-down vote (no amendments) on FTAs.
• Allows U.S. to complete TPP, other FTAs.• West Coast Ports Slowdown ended
• NPPC urged feds to get involved in labor dispute.• Cost U.S. meat sector more than $600 million.• NPPC backing legislation to prevent future slowdowns.
• Chile, Peru agree to eliminate trichinae testing requirements on chilled U.S. pork USDA certifies pork originated from PQA Plus farms. Exports should increase significantly.
NPPC Successes 2015• De facto import ban in Malaysia lifted
• Singapore drops PRT ban on U.S. pork• Codex approves guidance for establishing negligible risk
compartments for trichinae• Move should boost U.S. pork exports.
• DOT Hours of Service Rule two-year waiver for truckers hauling livestock• Rule requires 30-minutes rest break for 8 hours service.
• Port Performance Act• Included in Highway Bill, requires collection of data on port
performance as a way to deal with congestion at the nation’s shipping ports and avoid shutdowns like ones that occurred at West Coast ports.
NPPC Successes 2015 Mandatory Price Reporting reauthorized, signed into law.
Includes important new pork industry provisions. Positive Train Control Deadline Extension.
Congress approved, president signed highway funding bill that extended for three years deadline for putting PTC on tracks.
Avoided disruption in rail service, including delivery of anhydrous. CFTC reauthorized by House, with new provisions to
protect futures market customers. Need Senate approval in 2016.
Pork Back on Prison Menus. Federal Bureau of Prisons in October pulled pork from its 122
prison facilities, claimed inmate survey, costs were reasons. NPPC, Sen. Chuck Grassley complained. Pork reinstated.
2013 2014 % Change 2013 2014 % ChangeWorld $ 6,049,819,352 $ 6,674,430,723 10% 2,144,327 2,178,484 2%Japan $ 1,883,339,463 $ 1,932,380,193 3% 424,551 468,719 10%Mexico $ 1,223,687,112 $ 1,557,750,665 27% 626,377 680,842 9%Canada $ 844,527,157 $ 904,677,284 7% 227,409 207,363 -9%China/Hong Kong $ 902,758,570 $ 775,412,933 -14% 416,993 337,305 -19%South Korea $ 276,193,708 $ 444,559,794 61% 99,350 135,395 36%ASEAN 162,426,455$ 188,484,799$ 16% 69,620 70,499 1% Philippines $ 112,253,797 $ 103,650,283 -8% 50,060 38,876 -22% Singapore $ 44,467,370 $ 80,037,331 80% 17,311 29,971 73%Australia $ 176,153,394 $ 181,620,636 3% 53,924 50,101 -7%CAFTA-DR $ 148,894,277 $ 163,999,946 10% 60,453 56,484 -7% Dominican Republic $ 43,401,951 $ 47,076,121 8% 18,694 16,898 -10%Colombia $ 88,312,553 $ 134,107,138 52% 34,274 47,442 38%Chile $ 61,670,513 $ 49,315,836 -20% 24,197 19,109 -21%Taiwan $ 40,318,896 $ 38,254,825 -5% 18,104 15,720 -13%Others 241,537,254$ 303,866,674$ 26% 89,075 89,505 0%Source of Data: Global Trade Atlas
U.S. Pork and Pork Variety Meat Exports 2013-2014Partner Country
TonsUS Dollars
2014 2015 % Change 2014 2015 % Change World 6,127,314,207 5,106,187,606 -17% 1,994,461 1,943,730 -3% Japan 1,787,248,977 1,461,261,301 -18% 432,360 374,720 -13% Mexico 1,425,716,454 1,146,688,932 -20% 617,419 650,838 5% Canada 831,105,652 717,618,341 -14% 191,117 183,944 -4% China/Hong Kong 710,536,698 632,854,542 -11% 310,262 305,365 -2% South Korea 392,266,293 433,803,596 11% 120,741 153,422 27% Australia 165,555,744 158,625,847 -4% 45,975 52,682 15% CAFTA 119,766,496 120,758,477 1% 42,343 51,901 23%Dominican Republic 43,470,032 48,867,352 12% 15,599 21,346 37% Colombia 123,446,922 96,424,787 -22% 43,816 38,954 -11% ASEAN 174,119,911 93,227,313 -46% 65,098 38,844 -40% Philippines 98,251,489 73,547,523 -25% 36,591 32,792 -10% Singapore 71,223,570 13,911,645 -80% 26,896 4,006 -85% Chile 47,740,208 39,813,603 -17% 18,627 15,348 -18% Taiwan 34,457,056 37,384,033 8% 14,003 19,046 36% Others 315,353,796 167,726,834 -47% 92,700 58,666 -37%
U.S. Pork and Pork Variety Meat Exports US Dollars Metric Tons
Partner Country/Region January - November January - November
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
20 FTA Countries 174 Non-FTA Countries
Pork Exports & Free Trade AgreementsBillions of Dollars
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
US Trade Balances with FTA Countriesand the Rest of World
20 FTA Countries 174 Non-FTA Countries
Bill
ion
Dol
lars
Source: Darci Vetter, USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.
RTA Expansion 1975
RTA Expansion 1995
Source: Darci Vetter, USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.
RTA Expansion 2014
Source: Darci Vetter, USTR; IDB Integration and Trade Sector based on INTrade.
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
Regional AgreementsTrans-Pacific Partnership
• Negotiations concluded October 5, 2015
• 21st Century FTA set the stage for future trading frameworks.
• 12 current TPP members: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the U.S. and Vietnam.
• Toughest issues: rice, dairy, tobacco exemption, biologics etc.
• Address tariff, but real payout for U.S. pork is resolving sanitary (SPS) issues.
• NPPC supports negotiated agreement
TPP – Presidential PositionIn Favor Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
ReservationsRand Paul
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
OpposedDonald Trump
Mike Huckabee
Ted Cruz
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O’Malley
TPP Deliverables
• Malaysia eliminated all non-tariff barriers ending its de facto ban on U.S. pork
• New Zealand eliminated the most trade distorting aspects of its non-tariff barriers resulting in U.S. pork sales at retail
• Chile and Peru eliminated their trichinae testing requirements for chilled U.S. pork
• Singapore lifted its ban on the use of PRTs
Sanitary and Phytosanitary Deliverables
• Builds and enhances WTO SPS agreement
• SPS measures subject to dispute settlement
• Consultative Technical Committee (CTC) or “Rapid-response mechanism”: technical consultation to immediately resolve an SPS problem to allow the shipment to clear customs
Vietnam
• All pork tariffs will be eliminated in 5 to 10 years depending on the pork product
• There is a side letter on non-tariff-barriers
Australia• Pork: top U.S. AG export to Australia
– Cannot sell at retail; must send processed pork or frozen, boneless pork for further processing.
– Restrictions related to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS)
• NPPC developed a game plan with USG and Australia which should lead to a modernization of the risk assessment on pork and, hopefully, lead to sales of U.S. pork at retail in Australia.
Malaysia• Malaysia will eliminate all pork
tariffs (except carcasses and half carcasses) upon entry into force of the agreement.
• Malaysia eliminated all non-tariff barriers ending its de facto ban on U.S. pork.
Singapore
• The U.S. is finalizing a side letter with Singapore – separate from TPP – pledges to work toward approving more PRTs and to lifting requirements on trichinae testing of chilled pork.
New Zealand
• New Zealand allows duty free access for pork from Australia, China and Canada, but the U.S. has to pay an import tariff.
• All pork tariffs from the U.S. and other TPP nations will be eliminated upon entry into force of the agreement except HTS 020322 which will go to zero in year 3.
Chile & Peru
• During TPP negotiation Chile and Peru accepted APHIS proposal to allow chilled pork from the U.S. into their market without trichinae testing
Japan• Will eliminate all tariffs on all products, including the
Gate Price on processed pork, in 6 to 11 years from entry into force of the agreement. • Processed products not subject to the GP (we shipped over
$400 million of these products in 2014), tariffs will be eliminated in year six.
• Immediately reduce the impact of the Gate Price on chilled and frozen pork upon entry into force of TPP. • Gate Price will remain at 524 Yen/KG indefinitely. However,
the specific duty which is assessed when products do not meet the GP will phase down to 50 Yen/KG in year ten.
• There will be one safeguard on processed product and two safeguards on chilled/frozen pork. • Safeguards disappear in year 11.
Taiwan
• Tsai Ing-wen elected president on January 16• U.S. pork imports top issue during two
Taiwanese political debates• Candidates engaged in a heated discussion
about whether Taiwan should import pork from the United States that contains ractopamine
• Taiwanese pork producers to stage a protest rally if the ban is lifted
South AfricaSUCCESS!
South Africa has agreed to drop its de facto ban on U.S. Pork
According to Dr. Hayes - potential to add $40 million in U.S. pork exports
• There will be some restrictions but most cuts permitted• Getting shoulders a huge victory• NPPC started the drumbeat five years ago focusing on the
preference programs – GSP and AGOA• AGOA renewal legislation signed with TPA; new language:
• Greater flexibility to the Administration to withdraw, suspend, or limit AGOA benefits;
• South Africa-specific out-of-cycle review
Argentina• There is currently no export certificate to export
to Argentina.– U.S. fresh and frozen pork are ineligible for export to
Argentina
• Argentina has unscientific trichinae mitigation requirements
• Mauricio Macri won run off, against Daniel Scioli (hand-picked Kirchner candidate)– Rewrite the playbook on Argentina's economy
• Suspension of Venezuela to MERCOSUR• Pivot to U.S., Europe and Asia
TTIPRemoval of all EU barriers will significantly
increaseU.S. exports
• U.S. cabinet officials stated unequivocally that agriculture would be part of the negotiation.
• EU has stated it is unwilling to eliminate tariffs some agricultural products on beef, poultry and pork.
• U.S. exports more pork to smaller countries like Honduras than the entire EU
• NPPC leading lobbying effort & SPS effort– Business Coalition for Transatlantic Trade– Five ag coalition letters
