marine core service my ocean wp 8 monitoring & forecasting centre for ibi

MarineCore

Service

MY OCEAN

WP 8Monitoring & Forecasting

Centre for IBI

Marine Core Service

MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma

Reminder - Partnership

CLS: Collecte Localisation Satellites, Toulouse, France.CNRS (POC): Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse, France.MO: Mercator Océan, Toulouse, France.NERC (POL): National Environment Research Council, Liverpool, UK.PDE: Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain.

WP 8 IBI MFCCoord.: MO

R&D

R&D•MO•PDE•CNRS•NERC

DevelopmentMaintenance•MO•PDE•CLS

Production•MO•PDE•CLS

Cal/Val•MO•PDE•CNRS•NERC

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Main objectives:q Ensure transition between two (very) different systems for short

term forecasting over the IBI area:

q Test multivariate data assimilation implementation (integration scheduled during MyOcean 2)

Main issues:q Gap between NEMO and dedicated coastal models: Need for new numerical schemes

(time stepping, higher order advection schemes) and simulation of additional physical processes (tides, atmospheric pressure forcing,…)

Þ MUST ensure no product regression from V0 POLCOMS system.q Data assimilation implementation is challenging both on a scientific and technical point of

view: high resolution, high frequencies (tides), adequacy of schemes and observational datasets for both deep and shallow ocean, …

Reminder - Objectives for R&D

V0 (ESEOAT) POLCOMS codecoastal processes oriented

V1, V2NEMO code,

(Originally) basin scale/climate processes

oriented

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R&D : main achievements Main achievements are

An improved bathymetry, merging best local databases (CNRS and NWS) Implementation of new numerical schemes:

Revised time splitting scheme (solves tracers conservation issues with tides) Implement state of the art 2 equations vertical mixing scheme (Generic Length Scale Model,

Umlauf and Burchard, 2003) New tracer horizontal advection schemes: Quickest (Leonard, 1979) and PPM (Piecewise

Parabolic Method, James 1996). Improved model physics / high frequency processes

3h atmospheric forcing / diurnal cycle Add ocean color effects on solar radiation penetration (based on a merged Seawifs/Ifremer kpar

climatology). Atmospheric pressure forcing (surge component)

Correction of shortwave and longwave radiation based on CMS satellite data. Studied “optimal strategy” for operational scenario (sequential restarting from GLO MFC) Performed runs for calibration report. Performed 2 years hindcast with multivariate data assimilation (SEEK filter) with tides at moderate

horizontal resolution (1/12°) Remaining activities/objectives:

Activation of solar radiation forcing correction in operational context Add real time river discharge data. Wave/ocean coupling: effects of wave induced stress on wind and surface roughness. Improve data assimilation implementation (use of high resolution SST. Activate surge component). Initiate research on alternative data assimilation scheme (EnKF ?)

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Improved bathymetry and tides

M2 amplitude error [m] vs FES2004

M2 phase error [°] vs FES2004

Improved bathymetry Gebco 1’

R&D : main achievements

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R&D : main achievements

Publications

IBI R&D team involved in the following publications (making use of IBIV1 products):• Reverdin et al., 2010: Freshwater from the Bay of Biscay shelves in 2009, submitted for publication.• Martin et al., 2011: Remote sensing of sea surface salinity from CAROLS L-band radiometer in t-he Gulf of Biscay, submitted for publication in Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing .

System description and assessment:• Cailleau et al., 2010: The new regional generation of Mercator Ocean system in the Iberian Biscay Irish (IBI) area. Mercator quarterly newsletter, 39.

• Maraldi et al., 2011: NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia – Biscay – Ireland configuration. In preparation.

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Reminder - Objectives for Dev. & Maintenance

Objectives, difficulties– Implement and maintain IBI MFC on production machines.– Set up interfaces with MFCs, TAC, service desk, external product providers– Ensure version transitioning (link with 8.2).– Analysis and prevention of divergences between production units.

V0 ESEOAT system. System maintained. No development planned.

V1, V2 Development and maintenance of a new NEMO 1/36° system in

both production units (PdE and MO)

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Dev. & Maint. : main achievements

Main achievements are Maintenance of V0 system. Set-up automatic provision of GLO MFC products for OBC and initial states. Set-up pre-processing of ECMWF forcing files (Nominal PU). Nominal system (PdE): System tested and transferred on nominal production machine

(CESGA). Backup System (MO): System tested and transferred on backup production machine

(Meteo France). Intensive checking of exact reproducibility of each sub-component (from ECMWF

forcing preprocessing to output generation). Code optimization. Implementation an test software for output dissemination (MIS).

Main difficulties Transition from V0 to V1 for nominal PU implied deep re-engineering of most of the sub-

systems (model, inputs, forcings, computing environment). Development synchronization between Pus. Unexpected divergences due to the different computing environments.

Remaining tasks Meta-data exchange between PUs (switch from nominal to backup)

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Reminder - Objectives for Production

Objectives Monitoring and control the input data. Maintaining the production chains in operations. Maintaining the servers for the delivery of numerical products.

Difficulties Heavy workload. Risk on synchronisation between Pus,

timeliness. Anomaly identification and correction must be coordinated so that

the shared system remain the same all along the configurations.

Steps Test daily production of V1 by both Pus: Monitor system

performances (timeliness), failures, dataflow. Starting at spring 2010 in Mercator & in winter 2011 in PdE.

In parallel, check consistency between PUs is performed.

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Reminder - Objectives for Cal / Val

Objectives Perform routine operational qualification of products. V1 vs V0 performances V1 Upgrades: Set up a methodology for R&D to monitor

continuous improvement during V1 lifecycle. Scientific interaction with other WP on overlapping areas (NWS).

Steps Data inventory and implementation of off-line co-localization

systems. Integrate specific metrics adapted to coastal processes and risk

monitoring.

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Production : main achievements

Main achievements are V0 system ran daily since T0 by PdE and fulfilling service requirements

at T0+6. Cal/Val interface based on PdE insitu network (temperature, currents)

run operationally. V1 Backup system pre-operational on a weekly basis since April 2010. Both V1 systems are run daily since April 2011 meeting timeliness

requirements.

Main difficulties Develop links between PUs. Need for a strong coordination in case of

nominal system failure. Solution Likeness control

Remaining objectives V1 full system production (integration of CAL/VAL procedures from

WP8.5)

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Cal/Val : main achievements

Main achievements are Delivered calibration report for system acceptance: V1 gives

equivalent or even better results than V0.

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IBI V0 vs IBI V1

IBI v0 (ESEOAT)

SST RMS error August 2008 (CMS data)

IBI V1 IBI V0

=> Comparison between V0 and V1 systems show overall equivalent or better performances

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equivalent or even better results than V0. Daily system monitoring: Flexible Online validation interface

developed by PdE (Model vs in situ, SST, climatology, GLO MFC).

CLASS2


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IBI MFC outputs daily validated with the MyO IBI-insituTAC obs.

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Recent example: From last Monday IBI run

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equivalent or even better results than V0. Daily system monitoring: Flexible Online validation interface

developed by PdE (Model vs. in situ, SST, climatology, GLO MFC).

Remaining tasks Set-up indicators to monitor important physical processes (e.g.

upwelling activity, slope current anomaly). Comparison with NWS. Integrate automatic comparison with IBIROOS sub-models.

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Scientific Challenges– Is NEMO now suitable for shelf processes modeling: yes !– Some processes (Med-overflows) over this area are still

problematic to simulate. Mainly due to a lack of vertical and/or horizontal resolution => make use of NEMO on-line refinement capability on key areas (AGRIF ?)

– Reduce dependency on GLO system accuracy. Technical Challenges

– Reduce overall computational time. Operational Challenges

– Develop links between PUs. Need for a strong coordination in case of nominal system failure.

Ultimate Challenges– Integrate data assimilation in operational system.

Main Challenges

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Scientific Challenges– Towards an integrated coupled system: Wave + ocean +

biochemistry.– Multiyear reanalysis.– Data assimilation at small scales and high frequencies.

Technical Challenges– Limited computational resources and storage for long (>10 years)

model integration (needed for instance for reanalysis). Ultimate Challenges

– Adequacy of products with users needs. – Provide indicators on system predictability.

Main Risks– Limited human resources

Future Challenges

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Past (event, work or tasks achieved) :– April 2010: First AM & pre-operational launch.– December 2010: MyOcean science days and R&D review – February 2011: IBI internal meeting in Madrid. PdE nominal system

integration finalized.– April 2011: IBI connected to MIS. V1 system integrated and tested.

V1 quality equivalent or better than V0.

Future :– June 2011 : Start production (stream 2).– September 2011 : assess upgrades for V2.

Calendar

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Some illustrations…Xynthia storm (27-28 Feb 2010) as seen by IBIV1 system

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Some illustrations…MyOcean website, Sep. 2010: IBIV1 product showcase

marine core service my ocean wp 8 monitoring & forecasting centre for ibi

Documents

annual meeting

operational system

system acceptance

system predictability

ibi internal meeting

glo system accuracy

daily system monitoring

integrated coupled system