marine regime shifts causes and consequences

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  • Marine Regime ShiftsDrivers and Impacts on Ecosystem Services

    !!

    Rocha, J.C; Yletyinen, J; Biggs, R; Blenckner, T & G. Peterson

  • The Anthropocene

    Social challenge: Understand patters of causes and consequences of regime shifts !

    How common they are? Where are they likely to occur? Who will be most affected? What can we do to avoid them? What possible interactions or cascading effects?

  • Blenckner T, Niiranen S (2013) Biodiversity - Marine Food-Web Structure, Stability, and Regime Shifts. In: Climate Vulnerability, Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources (ed. Pielke R), Elsevier, 1570 pp

    Science challenge: understand phenomena where experimentation is rarely an option, data availability is poor, and time for action a constraint

  • to assess co-occurrence patterns of the drivers and ecosystem services consequences that

    can inform better managerial practices

  • Regime Shifts DataBase

    Established or proposed feedback mechanisms exist that maintain the different regimes = hysteresis !The shift substantially affect the set of ecosystem services provided by a social-ecological system

    !The shift persists on time scale that impacts on people and society

  • Mechanism

    Exist

    ence

    Well

    established

    Speculative

    Contested

    Contested

    Speculative

    Well established

    Mangroves collapse

    !Thermohaline circulation

    collapse

    Fisheries collapse

    !Marine Eutrophication

    !Marine food webs

    Arctic sea ice

    Salt marshes to flat

    tidal

    Greenland Ice Sheet

    collapse

    West Antarctica Ice Sheet

    Bivalves collapse

    !Coral transitions

    !Hypoxia

    !Kelps transitions

    !Sea grass transitions

    Evidence type! Models

    Paleo observation

    Contemporary observation

    Experiments

    Other!Reversibility! Irreversible

    Hysteretic

    Reversible

    Unknown

  • Methods

    Tripartite network and one-mode projections: 13 Regime shifts + 54 Drivers + 26 Ecosystem Services

    104 random bipartite graphs to explore significance of couplings: mean degree, co-occurrence & clustering coefficient statistics on one-mode projections.

    Regime shiftsDrivers

  • Drivers Network Cooccurrence Index

    ssquared

    Dens

    ity

    1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

    02

    46

    8

    Regime Shifts Network Cooccurrence Index

    ssquared

    Dens

    ity16 20 24

    0.00.1

    0.20.3

    0.4

    Average Degree in simulated Drivers Networks

    Mean Degree

    Dens

    ity

    23 24 25 26 27

    0.00.2

    0.40.6

    0.8

    Average Degree in simulated Regime Shifts Networks

    Mean Degree

    Dens

    ity

    9 10 11 12 13

    0.00.5

    1.01.5

    Ecosystem Services Network Cooccurrence Index

    ssquared

    Dens

    ity

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    01

    23

    4

    Regime Shifts Network Cooccurrence Index

    ssquared

    Dens

    ity

    22 24 26

    0.00.2

    0.40.6

    0.81.0

    Average Degree in simulated Ecosystem Services Networks

    Mean Degree

    Dens

    ity

    12 16 20 24

    0.00.2

    0.40.6

    0.81.0

    1.2

    Average Degree in simulated Regime Shifts Networks

    Mean Degree

    Dens

    ity

    10 14 18

    0.00

    0.02

    0.04

    0.06

    0.08

    0.10

  • Agriculture

    Atmospheric CO2

    Deforestation

    Demand

    Erosion

    Fishing

    Floods Global warming

    Human population

    Nutrients inputs

    Sea level riseSea surface temperature

    Sewage

    TemperatureUpwellings

    Urbanization

    Arctic sea ice

    Bivalves collapse

    Coral transitions

    Fisheries collapse

    Hypoxia

    Kelps transitions

    Mangroves collapse

    Marine eutrophication

    Marine foodwebs

    Salt marshes

    Sea grassThermohaline circulation

    Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

    Food production related drivers, coastal development and climate change are the most important drivers and

    they co-occur very strongly.

  • Soil formation

    Primary production

    Nutrient cycling

    Water cyclingBiodiversity

    Freshwater

    FoodcropsLivestock

    Fisheries

    Wild animal and plant foods

    Timber

    Wood fuel

    Feed, fuel & fiber cropsClimate regulation

    Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion

    Pest and disease regulation

    Natural hazard regulation

    RecreationAesthetic values

    Knowledge and educational values

    Spiritual and religious

    Arctic sea ice

    Bivalves collapseCoral transitions

    Fisheries collapse

    Hypoxia

    Kelps transitions

    Mangroves collapse

    Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs

    Salt marshes

    Sea Grass

    Termohaline circulation

    Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

    The most co-occurring ecosystem services are fisheries, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, water purification.

    Many regime shifts in coastal ecosystems have impacts on aesthetic values and recreation.

  • Dem

    and

    Agric

    ultur

    eSe

    wage

    Defo

    resta

    tion

    Urba

    nizat

    ionGl

    obal

    warm

    ingFi

    shing

    Nutri

    ents

    input

    sHu

    rrica

    nes

    Ocea

    n ac

    idific

    ation

    Drou

    ghts

    Infra

    struc

    ture

    dev

    elopm

    ent

    Sea

    surfa

    ce te

    mpe

    ratu

    reAq

    uacu

    lture

    Irriga

    tion

    infra

    struc

    ture

    Gree

    n ho

    use

    gase

    sTi

    des

    Surfa

    ce m

    elting

    pon

    dsSu

    rface

    melt

    wat

    erSt

    rato

    sphe

    ric o

    zone

    Ocea

    n te

    mpe

    ratu

    re (d

    eep

    wate

    r)Ice

    surfa

    ce m

    elting

    Glac

    iers g

    rowt

    hCl

    imat

    e va

    riabil

    ity (S

    AM)

    Glac

    iers

    Turb

    idity

    Ther

    mal

    anom

    alies

    in su

    mm

    erLo

    w tid

    esPo

    lluta

    nts

    Flus

    hing

    Urba

    n sto

    rm w

    ater

    runo

    ffFi

    shing

    tech

    nolog

    yPr

    ecipi

    tatio

    nIn

    vasiv

    e sp

    ecies

    Trag

    edy o

    f the

    com

    mon

    sAc

    cess

    to m

    arke

    tsSu

    bsidi

    esFo

    od su

    pply

    Wat

    er st

    ratifi

    catio

    nIm

    poun

    dmen

    tsIrr

    igatio

    nAt

    mos

    pher

    ic CO

    2Te

    mpe

    ratu

    reSe

    a lev

    el ris

    eSe

    dimen

    tsDi

    seas

    eLa

    ndsc

    ape

    fragm

    enta

    tion

    Rainf

    all va

    riabil

    ityEr

    osion

    Floo

    dsFe

    rtiliz

    ers u

    seHu

    man

    pop

    ulatio

    nEN

    SO lik

    e ev

    ents

    Upwe

    llings

    FreshwaterFeed, fuel & fiber cropsTimberWood fuelWater regulationFoodcropsLivestockPest and disease regulationKnowledge and educational valuesSpiritual and religiousWater cyclingClimate regulationWild animal and plant foodsSoil formationRegulation of soil erosionNatural hazard regulationAesthetic valuesBiodiversityFisheriesWater purificationNutrient cyclingPrimary productionRecreation

    In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services?

  • Bivalves collapseSea grass

    Marine eutrophicationFisheries collapseCoral transitions

    HypoxiaMangroves collapse

    Salt marshesKelps transitions

    Marine food websArctic sea ice

    Thermohaline circulationWAIS Collapse

    LocalNationalInternational

    Proportion of RS Drivers0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

    WAI

    S Coll

    apse

    Fishe

    ries c

    ollap

    seM

    arine

    food

    web

    sSa

    lt mars

    hes

    Arcti

    c sea

    ice

    Therm

    ohali

    ne ci

    rculat

    ionM

    angro

    ves c

    ollap

    seSe

    a gras

    sCo

    ral tr

    ansit

    ions

    Hypo

    xiaM

    arine

    eutro

    phica

    tion

    Biva

    lves c

    ollap

    seKe

    lps tr

    ansit

    ions

    Human Indirect ActivitiesBiogeochemical CycleBiodiversity LossLand Cover ChangeClimateBiophysicalWater

    0 2 4 6 8 10Value

    05

    15Co

    unt

    A B

    Climate drivers are common to all regime shifts but dont co-occur strongly, while strong co-occurrence is found in

    biophysical, land cover change and biochemical drivers.

    Managing regime shifts requires multi-level governance, but we can build resilience locally

  • Conclusions Key drivers cluster: food production, climate change

    and coastal development

    Key ecosystem services cluster: cultural services, biodiversity and primary production

    Managing marine regime shifts requires coordinated actions across scales

    Avoiding regime shifts requires addressing multiple drivers, shared drivers offer strategies for prioritisation and synergistic action.

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    Thank you!

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