marine regime shifts causes and consequences
TRANSCRIPT
Marine Regime ShiftsDrivers and Impacts on Ecosystem Services
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Rocha, J.C; Yletyinen, J; Biggs, R; Blenckner, T & G. Peterson
The Anthropocene
Social challenge: Understand patters of causes and consequences of regime shifts !
How common they are? Where are they likely to occur? Who will be most affected? What can we do to avoid them? What possible interactions or cascading effects?
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Blenckner T, Niiranen S (2013) Biodiversity - Marine Food-Web Structure, Stability, and Regime Shifts. In: Climate Vulnerability, Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources (ed. Pielke R), Elsevier, 1570 pp
Science challenge: understand phenomena where experimentation is rarely an option, data availability is poor, and time for action a constraint
to assess co-occurrence patterns of the drivers and ecosystem services consequences that
can inform better managerial practices
Regime Shifts DataBase
Established or proposed feedback mechanisms exist that maintain the different regimes = hysteresis !The shift substantially affect the set of ecosystem services provided by a social-ecological system
!The shift persists on time scale that impacts on people and society
Mechanism
Exis
tenc
e
Well established
Speculative
Contested
Contested
Speculative
Well established
Mangroves collapse!Thermohaline circulationcollapse
Fisheries collapse!Marine Eutrophication!Marine food webs
Arctic sea ice Salt marshes to flat tidal
Greenland Ice Sheet collapseWest Antarctica Ice Sheet
Bivalves collapse!Coral transitions!Hypoxia!Kelps transitions!Sea grass transitions
Evidence type! Models Paleo observation Contemporary observation Experiments Other!Reversibility! Irreversible Hysteretic Reversible Unknown
Methods
•Tripartite network and one-mode projections: 13 Regime shifts + 54 Drivers + 26 Ecosystem Services
•104 random bipartite graphs to explore significance of couplings: mean degree, co-occurrence & clustering coefficient statistics on one-mode projections.
Regime shiftsDrivers
Drivers Network Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Den
sity
1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
02
46
8
Regime Shifts Network Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Den
sity
16 20 240.
00.
10.
20.
30.
4
Average Degree in simulated Drivers Networks
Mean Degree
Den
sity
23 24 25 26 27
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Average Degree in simulated Regime Shifts Networks
Mean Degree
Den
sity
9 10 11 12 13
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ecosystem Services Network Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Den
sity
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
01
23
4
Regime Shifts Network Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Den
sity
22 24 26
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Average Degree in simulated Ecosystem Services Networks
Mean Degree
Den
sity
12 16 20 24
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Average Degree in simulated Regime Shifts Networks
Mean Degree
Den
sity
10 14 18
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
Agriculture
Atmospheric CO2
Deforestation
Demand
Erosion
Fishing
Floods Global warming
Human population
Nutrients inputs
Sea level riseSea surface temperature
Sewage
TemperatureUpwellings
Urbanization
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophication
Marine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea grassThermohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Food production related drivers, coastal development and climate change are the most important drivers and
they co-occur very strongly.
Soil formation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
Water cyclingBiodiversity
Freshwater
FoodcropsLivestock
Fisheries
Wild animal and plant foods
Timber
Wood fuel
Feed, fuel & fiber crops
Climate regulation
Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion
Pest and disease regulation
Natural hazard regulation
RecreationAesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea Grass
Termohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
The most co-occurring ecosystem services are fisheries, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, water purification.
Many regime shifts in coastal ecosystems have impacts on aesthetic values and recreation.
Dem
and
Agric
ultu
reSe
wage
Def
ores
tatio
nU
rban
izat
ion
Glo
bal w
arm
ing
Fish
ing
Nut
rient
s in
puts
Hur
rican
esO
cean
aci
dific
atio
nD
roug
hts
Infra
stru
ctur
e de
velo
pmen
tSe
a su
rface
tem
pera
ture
Aqua
cultu
reIrr
igat
ion
infra
stru
ctur
eG
reen
hou
se g
ases
Tide
sSu
rface
mel
ting
pond
sSu
rface
mel
t wat
erSt
rato
sphe
ric o
zone
Oce
an te
mpe
ratu
re (d
eep
wate
r)Ic
e su
rface
mel
ting
Gla
cier
s gr
owth
Clim
ate
varia
bilit
y (S
AM)
Gla
cier
sTu
rbid
ityTh
erm
al a
nom
alie
s in
sum
mer
Low
tide
sPo
lluta
nts
Flus
hing
Urb
an s
torm
wat
er ru
noff
Fish
ing
tech
nolo
gyPr
ecip
itatio
nIn
vasi
ve s
peci
esTr
aged
y of
the
com
mon
sAc
cess
to m
arke
tsSu
bsid
ies
Food
sup
ply
Wat
er s
tratif
icat
ion
Impo
undm
ents
Irrig
atio
nAt
mos
pher
ic C
O2
Tem
pera
ture
Sea
leve
l ris
eSe
dim
ents
Dis
ease
Land
scap
e fra
gmen
tatio
nR
ainf
all v
aria
bilit
yEr
osio
nFl
oods
Ferti
lizer
s us
eH
uman
pop
ulat
ion
ENSO
like
eve
nts
Upw
ellin
gs
FreshwaterFeed, fuel & fiber cropsTimberWood fuelWater regulationFoodcropsLivestockPest and disease regulationKnowledge and educational valuesSpiritual and religiousWater cyclingClimate regulationWild animal and plant foodsSoil formationRegulation of soil erosionNatural hazard regulationAesthetic valuesBiodiversityFisheriesWater purificationNutrient cyclingPrimary productionRecreation
In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services?
Bivalves collapse
Sea grass
Marine eutrophication
Fisheries collapse
Coral transitions
Hypoxia
Mangroves collapse
Salt marshes
Kelps transitions
Marine food webs
Arctic sea ice
Thermohaline circulation
WAIS Collapse
Local
National
International
Proportion of RS Drivers
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
WA
IS
Coll
apse
Fis
herie
s c
oll
apse
Marin
e f
ood w
ebs
Salt
marshes
Arcti
c s
ea i
ce
Therm
ohali
ne c
ircula
tion
Mangroves c
oll
apse
Sea g
rass
Coral
transit
ions
Hypoxia
Marin
e e
utr
ophic
ati
on
Biv
alv
es c
oll
apse
Kelp
s t
ransit
ions
Human Indirect Activities
Biogeochemical Cycle
Biodiversity Loss
Land Cover Change
Climate
Biophysical
Water
0 2 4 6 8 10Value
05
15
Count
A B
Climate drivers are common to all regime shifts but don’t co-occur strongly, while strong co-occurrence is found in
biophysical, land cover change and biochemical drivers.
Managing regime shifts requires multi-level governance, but we can build resilience locally
Conclusions• Key drivers cluster: food production, climate change
and coastal development
• Key ecosystem services cluster: cultural services, biodiversity and primary production
• Managing marine regime shifts requires coordinated actions across scales
• Avoiding regime shifts requires addressing multiple drivers, shared drivers offer strategies for prioritisation and synergistic action.
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