Maritime Piracy Event & Location Data ProjectBrandon C. Prins – Department of Political Science & Howard Baker Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee

Ursula Daxecker – Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam

Pirate Attacks, 1993-2013

Project Goals• Explore the structural and micro-level drivers of

modern maritime piracy• Geo-code all pirate attacks worldwide• Cross-check data against other available data collection

efforts• Build database on pirates and pirate organizations

through expert surveys• Create online web portal to access incident-level data

and filter on several piracy characteristics• Dynamically map geo-coded piracy data• Forecast piracy globally and in specific country contexts

Shareable Data Created• Global Piracy Incidents Database (GPI) – Data on piracy

events recorded at the incident, country-month, and country-year levels. Information on important correlates of piracy also contained in the data-files.

• Mapping Pirate Organizations Database (MPO) – Survey data on pirate organizations in four or five piracy-prone countries.

• Maritime Piracy Event and Location Dataset (MPELD) – Geo-spatial coding of piracy incidents

Theoretical Conjectures• Modern maritime piracy driven by opportunity,

willingness, and loss of strength gradient.• Fragile and corrupt governing institutions provide

opportunity• Poverty, inequality, and overall joblessness provide

willingness (grievance)• Physical topography of country interacts with state

weakness to produce loss of strength gradient. • Pirates strategically consider loss of strength gradient in

their location considerations.• Climatic conditions impact timing of attacks• Piracy may be connected to insurgent groups as funding

source

Global Maritime Piracy Sub-Saharan African Piracy

Key Figures of 2013• Global piracy counts down 11% from 2012 and 40% from 2011

• Greater Gulf of Aden piracy drops dramatically from 2011 (152 incidents) to 2013 (13 incidents). Greater drop if include incidents off Seychelles and Maldives.

• Piracy in Indonesian waters increases by over 70% from 2011 to 2013

• Nigerian piracy increases by over 160% from 2011 to 2013

• Bunkering of transport oil now a threat not only in Guinea Gulf waters.

• Success rate of pirate attacks over 90% in Indonesian waters but only around 50% in the Gulf of Guinea (location of attack important. Only 15% of attacks in Indonesian waters occur while ships are steaming. Over 75% of attacks in Nigerian waters occur while ships are steaming.

Somali Piracy 2011 Somali Piracy 2013

SE Asian Piracy 2010-2013Steaming Vessels

SE Asian Piracy 2010-2013Stationary Vessels

MPELD Database• Over 6,000 geo-coded piracy

incidents• Currently 1993-2013• Currently inputting 2014• Filters include country, time

of day, ship characteristics, whether ship was underway, pirate-specific information.

• Online data portal currently under construction for visualizing collected information.

• Pirate attacks consistently occur in SE Asia near & around Malacca Straits

• Somali increase beginning in 2009 appears to be an anomaly

• Analytical model forecasts 248 pirate attacks in 2014 (currently 162)

Research Accomplishments• Ursula Daxecker & Brandon Prins. 2014. “The New Barbary Wars: Forecasting

Maritime Piracy.” Forthcoming in Foreign Policy Analysis. • Ursula Daxecker, Brandon Prins, & Amanda Sanford. 2014. “Terror on the High

Seas.” SAIS Review Fall 2013.• Brandon Prins, Ursula Daxecker & Amanda Sanford. 2013. “The New Barbary

Wars: Assessing the Threat of Modern Day Piracy.” Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, Policy Brief Series 3:13.

• Maritime Piracy Event & Location Dataset, June 2014 Report: Focus on Piracy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Ursula Daxecker and Brandon Prins. 2014. “Enforcing Order: Territorial Reach and Maritime Piracy.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Meeting, Toronto, Canada, March 26-30, 2014. (Invited)

• Ursula Daxecker and Brandon Prins. 2014. “Seeking Sanctuary: Government Power and the Location of Piracy.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, Scotland, June 18-22, 2014. (Invited)

• Ursula Daxecker. “Piracy and Counterpiracy.: Presented at the Free University Amsterdam, February 20, 2014, Amsterdam, NL. (Invited)

• Brandon Prins. “The Threat of Maritime Piracy.” Presented at the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, March 13 2014, Knoxville, TN. (Invited)

• Somalia, Nigeria, and Tanzania are most piracy-prone countries

• Pirates increasingly attack ships underway

• Distance from coast to pirate attacks has increased

• Piracy in Sub-Saharan Africa appears more violent than elsewhere

• Pirate success rates have declined

• Plurality of attacks occur between midnight and 6am.

• Drivers of piracy remain strong in Sub-Saharan African countries

• All forms of political violence have increased over the past 5 years in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Climatic patterns may affect piracy in some countries

• Heat Map of Piracy• Terrorist Attacks• Armed Conflict

2005-2013