Mark DynarskiMark Dynarski

Presented at the Albert Shanker Presented at the Albert Shanker Institute Forum on Dropout Institute Forum on Dropout

PreventionPrevention

May 3, 2007May 3, 2007

Evidence of Effective Approaches for Reducing Dropout

Dropout Continues to Be a ProblemDropout Continues to Be a Problem

Dropout rate has declined since 1970 but no progress recently

Significant gap for minority students

High rate for Hispanics (about 25%)

Significant increase in spending

Dropout rate has declined since 1970 but no progress recently

Significant gap for minority students

High rate for Hispanics (about 25%)

Significant increase in spending

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States, 2004

K-12 Public Education Spending 1990-2002

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Constant Dollars

Per Pupil

Source: Digest of Education Statistics, Table 162Source: Digest of Education Statistics, Table 162

WWC Systematic ReviewsWWC Systematic Reviews

Objective: What has research found about effectiveness?

Approach:– Identify interventions– Identify studies of them– Rate quality of evidence– Rate effectiveness of interventions

Objective: What has research found about effectiveness?

Approach:– Identify interventions– Identify studies of them– Rate quality of evidence– Rate effectiveness of interventions

WWC Dropout ReviewWWC Dropout Review

Presumed audience: state task force

Interventions included:– Aim to keep students in school – Serve grades 6-12, under age 20– Have studies released after 1983

Outcome domains: staying in school, progressing, and completing

Presumed audience: state task force

Interventions included:– Aim to keep students in school – Serve grades 6-12, under age 20– Have studies released after 1983

Outcome domains: staying in school, progressing, and completing

Analyzing the LiteratureAnalyzing the Literature

Unduplicated references to dropout (EBSCOhost): 4,000

Studies of effectiveness: about 85

About 15 studies met WWC standards

Unduplicated references to dropout (EBSCOhost): 4,000

Studies of effectiveness: about 85

About 15 studies met WWC standards

Why So Few?Why So Few?

Not many effectiveness studies

Common for one study to be cited often

Study designs or weaknesses preclude causal claims

Not many effectiveness studies

Common for one study to be cited often

Study designs or weaknesses preclude causal claims

FindingsFindings

ObservationsObservations

Starting point for identifying programs based on evidence of effectiveness

– GED programs not yet examined Issue of disconnected youth

– Programs to improve academics not included

Not much evidence

Starting point for identifying programs based on evidence of effectiveness

– GED programs not yet examined Issue of disconnected youth

– Programs to improve academics not included

Not much evidence

Program FeaturesProgram Features

Middle School

High School

Adult Advocate or Counselor

Small School or

Unit

Thematic or Accelerated

Curricula

School to Career or

Experiential Learning

Parental Involvement

ALAS Career Academies Check and Connect Financial Incentives High School Redirection Middle College High School Talent Search Twelve Together

Middle School

High School

Adult Advocate or Counselor

Small School or

Unit

Thematic or Accelerated

Curricula

School to Career or

Experiential Learning

Parental Involvement

ALAS Career Academies Check and Connect Financial Incentives High School Redirection Middle College High School Talent Search Twelve Together

Source: whatworks.ed.govSource: whatworks.ed.gov

Other ConsiderationsOther Considerations

Many regret dropping out but do it anyway

– May think they will do better than others– School is unpleasant; regrets are worth it

Can we predict dropouts to focus services?

– No need to worry about targeting if we have a lot of money or programs are cheap

– Teachers may be better than existing data for identifying potential dropouts

Many regret dropping out but do it anyway

– May think they will do better than others– School is unpleasant; regrets are worth it

Can we predict dropouts to focus services?

– No need to worry about targeting if we have a lot of money or programs are cheap

– Teachers may be better than existing data for identifying potential dropouts