market developments 3q 2016 - sector naval gallego · market developments 3q 2016. data source: ihs...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Market Developments3Q 2016
![Page 2: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
(Production in CGT)
Europe
Japan
South Korea
China
RoW
1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
Evolution of Shipbuilding Capacity
![Page 3: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Data source: Clarkson, European Commission
![Page 4: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
New orders
Deliveries
Quelle: IHS Fairplay 08/2016
2016: Projection based
on 1st HY
12,4% 3,4%
Global Shipbuilding Development in 1.000 GT
![Page 5: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
GDP / trade growth elasticity changing
![Page 6: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
5.China Shipbuilding Employment
553
374
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.6
1,000 persons
With the adjustment of the shipbuilding market, the employment of shipbuilding
industry has been declining since 2011.
Till the end of Jun. 2016, the employment of China shipbuilding industry was about
374 thousands, fell by 32% compared with the 2011 peak of 553 thousands.
Data Source: CANSI
![Page 7: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Shipbuilding Employment & Wage
- The number of employees and wage level of the industry in Korea had been in upward trend except the year 2009, but this trend is likely to decline in the years to come due to ongoing industry restructuring.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016.1H
Thousands
Subcontractors Technical & Skilled Workers
Engineers Management &
Administration
(Thousand
Workers)
Average Monthly Wages in Manufacturing
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.
2Q
CAGR : 4.4%
(Thousand
KRW)
Shipbuilding Employment Trend
* Note : As of end of each year (KOSHIPA members only) * Source : Korean Ministry of Employment & Labor
-3-
![Page 8: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Workforce in SAJ
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Staff Factory Worker Subcontract Worker % of Subcontract Worker (right axis)
as of April
2016
Staff 9.8
Factory Worker 13.5
Subcontract Worker 31.0
Total 54.3
(1,000 persons)
Source: SAJ
![Page 9: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Shipyard Employment & Turnover in Germany
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Um
sätz
e in
Mrd
. €
Bes
chäf
tigt
e in
10
00
Employment
Turnover (in current prices)
ab 2007 Beschränkung auf Betriebe ab 50 Beschäftigte (bisher 20 Beschäftigte)
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Darstellung: VSM
![Page 10: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 11: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 12: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 13: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 14: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Value of New Contracts (in US bn $)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2013 2014 2015 3Q 2016
KOREA
CHINA
EUROPE
JAPAN
RoW
Source: Clarkson
![Page 15: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 16: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 17: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 18: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 19: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 20: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 21: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Data source: IHS Fairplay
![Page 22: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
• Total global investment from Jan to Oct = 26 bn $ • 12.9 bn invested on new Cruise ships
Data source: Clarksons
![Page 23: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Relative Development of Marketsegments
19.01.2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 Hj.1
Ind
ex 2
01
3=1
00
Tanker
Bulker
Container/Dry Cargo
Passengerships
NCCV
Datasource: IHS FairplayIndex based on new ordersin CGT
= Non Cargo Carrying Vessels
![Page 24: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Data source: Clarksons
![Page 26: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Data source: Clarksons
![Page 27: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Data Source: X-rates
![Page 28: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Data source: Meps.co.uk
![Page 29: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Thank You!
More info: www.seaurope.eu
![Page 30: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
TRADE
![Page 31: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
TTIP: Negotiations of the Jones Act
• 15th Round of EU-US Negotiation
• To be noted.
• Consolidated version of market assessment of different business segments in the context of TTIP negotiations
• Comments
• ECORYS’ Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment (TSIA) final Interim Technical Report on TTIP
• Comments
• US elections: quid nunc?
![Page 32: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
International WG on Export Credit
• Next steps?
![Page 33: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
EU-South Korea • South-Korean state subsidies
• Suggestions for Board discussion on 17.11.2016
• OECD WP6 and South-Korea• SEA Europe position at WP6 on 2 December 2016• Input to 6 questions raised by DG Trade • Answer to question from South Korea• Actions and/or positions expected from the European
Commission towards South-Korea during the WP 6 meeting on 2 December 2016.
• IMF Working Paper • Discuss findings
• Draft inception report of the evaluation of the EU South Korea FTA implementation• SEA Europe position
![Page 34: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
EU- China • Shipbuilding Dialogue
• Suggestions for discussion items
• EU-China Investment Agreement negotiations • Next steps
• Market economy status of China• Implications • Next steps• Meeting in EP
• Outcome of the 6th EU China High-level Economic and Trade Dialogue• To be noted
![Page 35: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
ANTI-DUMPING DUTIES ON IMPORTS OF CERTAIN CHINESE STEEL PRODUCTS
• Commission anti-dumping duties
• Impact for our industry
• Commission Communication towards a robust trade policy for the EU in the interest of jobs and growth
• Discuss content + possible SEA position
• Commission proposal
• New proposal issued on 9.11.2016
![Page 36: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
COMMISSION PROPOSAL – DUAL USE
• Comments on content of the proposal
• Next steps
![Page 37: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
AOB
• CETA
• SEA Europe meeting with trade experts
• TiSA
• SEA Europe strategy paper on trade issues
• Other topics of interest?
![Page 38: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
MEETINGS IN 2017
![Page 39: Market Developments 3Q 2016 - sector naval gallego · Market Developments 3Q 2016. Data source: IHS Fairplay (Production in CGT) Europe Japan South Korea China RoW 1990 2000 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042316/5f0476887e708231d40e178e/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
THE END