market outlook 300712

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 300712

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Market OutlookJuly 30, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open in green taking cues from positiveopening in the Asian markets. Stocks moved sharply higher over the course of thetrading day on Friday from some relatively upbeat U.S. economic data as well asthe latest news out of Europe.

US markets posted steep gains for a second day Friday, reclaiming a weeklyadvance as investors anticipated moves by the ECB as well as the U.S. FederalReserve. The rally was aided partly due to the release of a report from theCommerce Department showing that the pace of U.S. economic growth slowed byless than anticipated in the second quarter as GDP came in at 1.5% (Estimate:1.2%) as compared to 2.0% in the first quarter. While the report points tocontinued economic growth, analysts noted that the slowdown still leaves the dooropen for further stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, Indian shares fell ended in green but off their days high on Friday, asa fall in European markets after a rally the day before and domestic concerns onwhether the government will speed up economic reforms prompted investors totake some intra-day profits off the table at higher levels.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 16,858 / 5,109 levels. If NIFTY trades abovethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rallyup to 16,956 17,073 / 5,141 5,182 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below16,858 / 5,109 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to16,742 16,644 / 5,068 5,037 levels.

SENSEX 16,644 16,742 16,858 16,956 17,073

NIFTY 5,037 5,068 5,109 5,141 5,182

News Analysis RIL to invest US$1bn plan in Aerospace

Crompton Greaves buys smart grid automation company ZIV Group KEC International secures orders worth`740cr

Ashok Leyland to ink three overseas joint ventures

Sun TV slumped over possible CBI graft charges

1QFY2013 Result Reviews NTPC, ICICI, Nestle, Maruti Suzuki, PNB, Bank of

India, Union Bank, United Spirits, Central Bank, Indraprasth Gas, IRB Infra,

CESC, Dena Bank, TVS Motor, HCC, Sarda Energy, Vesuvius India, Force

Motors, Siyaram Silk Mills

1QFY2013 Result Previews GAIL, Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank, OBC,

Corporation Bank, IOB, Syndicate Bank, Sadbhav Engineering, Indoco

Remedies, PVRRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 26, 2012)

FII 2,823 3,753 (930) 2,604 47,581

MFs 799 398 401 (631) (7,326)

FII Derivatives (July 27, 2012)

Index Futures 3,167 1,716 1,451 11,405

Stock Futures 1,665 1,529 136 22,494

Gainers / Losers

Godrej Cons 636 4.8 Sun TV Network 262 (11.2)

Gujarat Mnrl 188 4.1 Pipavav Defence 56 (10.5)

Tata Steel 399 3.9 Union Bank 164 (7.9)

Tata Motors 213 3.9 Central Bank 69 (6.1)

Great Eastern Sh 266 3.6 Oriental Bank 213 (5.9)

BSE Sensex 1.2 199.4 16,839

Nifty 1.1 56.9 5,100

MID CAP (0.9) (53.4) 5,888

SMALL CAP (1.0) (62.5) 6,358

BSE HC (0.1) (6.0) 6,977

BSE PSU (0.5) (36.9) 6,931

BANKEX 0.4 46.2 11,633

AUTO 1.0 85.8 8,878

METAL 2.1 208.7 10,194

OIL & GAS 0.8 58.9 7,911

BSE IT 1.3 66.0 5,224

Dow Jones 1.5 187.7 13,076NASDAQ 2.2 64.8 2,958

FTSE 1.0 54.1 5,627

Nikkei 1.5 123.5 8,567

Hang Seng 2.0 382.2 19,275

Straits Times (0.2) (6.1) 2,998

Shanghai Com 0.1 2.8 2,129

INFY 2.4 0.9 $39.6

WIT 3.0 0.2 $7.9IBN 2.9 1.0 $34.9

HDB 3.2 1.1 $34.6

Advances 1,060 492

Declines 1,703 989

Unchanged 129 70

BSE 2,513

NSE 10,673


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RIL to invest US$1bn plan in Aerospace

Media reports suggest that Reliance Industries (RIL) is expected to invest

approximately US$1bn over the coming few years to venture into Aerospace

sector. During July 2012, the company had applied for an industrial license with

the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion to design, develop andmanufacture Aerospace equipment and components. We await further clarity on

this matter from the company. Until then,

Crompton Greaves buys smart grid automation companyZIV Group

Crompton Greaves Friday said it has acquired smart grid automation company

ZIV Group for an enterprise value equivalent to Euro 150 million. ZIV is a

provider of digital equipment for Grid Automation and Advanced Metering

Infrastructure (AMI). ZIV operates in more than 50 countries, with major

operations located in Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), India (Bangalore), Spain

(Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao) and the USA (Chicago). Crompton Greaves plans

to finance the venture through 1:1 debt to equity and expects the acquisition will

help the company better integrate its product offering.

KEC International secures orders worth`740cr

KEC international has announced that it has won several orders across segments

and geographies for a total consideration of`740cr.

`53cr order from Bangladesh for setting up of transmission

line from Power grid of Bangladesh (PGCB) and the duration of the project is 18

months. SAE Towers has secured several orders for supply of towers, poles and

hardwares to US, Canada, Mexico and Brazil. The total value of the orders is

`180cr.

`75cr order from Malaysia for establishment of 275kv

substations on turnkey basis. Project duration is 20 months. Order for

establishment of distribution lines (66/33/11kV) on turnkey basis in Nairobi for a

consideration of`28cr. Project duration of 15 months.

`192cr order for establishment of power supply, signaling and

telecom systems on a turnkey basis in Turkmenistan. The project is won in a

consortium for a total consideration of`588cr, of which KECs share is`192cr.

`212cr orders for supply of Power and Telecom cables.

KEC has geographically diversified business model which insulates itself from

slowdown in any particular region as is evident from the geographically diversified

order wins above. The company has also diversified into railways and waters,

orders for which have started to pick up.

Ashok Leyland to ink three overseas joint ventures

Ashok Leyland is in talks to sign at least three overseas joint ventures in the next

two to three months as it looks to consolidate its presence in newer geographies.


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The company is in the final stages of inking joint ventures in Indonesia, Chile and

Nigeria, keeping the majority holding in each of these partnerships with itself. As

per the reports while, Ashok Leyland will be exporting the kits, the foreign partners

will be responsible for assembling and marketing the commercial vehicles. The

company has zeroed down the above three geographies as it believes that they are

not much affected by the global economic slowdown. Ashok Leyland saw itsexports volume jump by 25% in FY2012 backed by strong demand for its products

in Asia (markets like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka), Middle East and Africa. The

company is targeting export volume growth of 15-18% in FY2013. At the CMP

of`21, the stock is trading at attractive levels of 7.6x FY2014 earnings.

Sun TV slumped over possible CBI graft charges

Sun TV shares fell sharply on Friday over reports of possible graft charges against

Companys executive chairman Kalanithi Maran. Fundamentally, Sun TV is a

good stock with largest broadcasting network in South India. However, politicalconcerns regarding Aircel-Maxis deal probe remains an overhang on the stock.

We believe the stock will remain volatile in near term.

Result Reviews

NTPC (CMP:`153 / TP: 158/ Upside: -)

NTPC posted a 12.6% yoy growth in topline to`15,960cr aided by higher capacity

and healthy PAF. PAF for the company is expected to have improved on a yoy

basis due to better availability of coal. During the quarter, the company declared

1,160MW of capacity commercial (500MW at Farakka and 660MW at Sipat).

OPM rose by 252bp yoy to 22.8%, resulting in a 26.7% yoy jump in operating

profit to`3,631cr. NTPCs interest costs were higher by 33.5% yoy at`499cr. The

companys tax rate fell by 383bp yoy to 23.3%. Net Profit rose by 20.4% yoy to

`2,499cr.

FY2013E 74,766 23.1 10,249 12.4 13.0 12.3 1.5 10.4 2.4

FY2014E 86,549 23.4 11,607 14.1 13.5 10.9 1.4 9.5 2.2

(CMP:`928/ TP:`1,169 / Upside: 26.0%)

ICICI Bank reported strong performance for 1QFY2013, with 36.2% growth in Net

profit, which was in-line with our estimates. Growth in earnings came largely on

account of solid operating performance, with 32.0% yoy higher pre provisioning

profits and was also aided by continued improvement on the asset quality front.

During the quarter, advances for the bank increased by healthy 21.6% yoy (5.8%

qoq), aided by a strong 45.6% yoy (15.0% qoq) growth in corporate book, 37.0%

yoy (5.0% qoq) growth in SME book, and 37.0% yoy growth in Overseas book

(excl. positive impact of INR depreciation growth in overseas and overall advances

would have been 8.0% and 15.0% yoy, respectively). Deposits accretion remained

healthy during the quarter with growth of 16.1% yoy (4.8% sequentially). Despite


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healthy accretion in savings deposits, subdued current account deposits led the

CASA ratio for the bank to decline to 40.6%. Domestic NIMs remained flat

sequentially to 3.2%; while, Overseas NIMs improved by ~10bp to 1.6%. Non-

interest income (excl. treasury) increased by only 14.0% yoy. Misc. other income

for the bank grew to `254cr from `90cr in 1QFY2012, aided mainly by higher

dividend income of ~`208cr. The banks asset quality improvement continuedduring this quarter as well, with both gross and net NPA ratio declining (though

marginally), on a sequential basis. Provision coverage ratio remained healthy at

80.6%. The bank restructured additional advances worth ~`350cr during the

quarter, in line with their guidance. As of 1QFY2013, their outstanding

restructured book (which is stated post upgradation on one year of satisfactory

performance) stood at `4,172cr. The management indicated that no major

restructuring is in the pipeline. They also specified that based on their past

experiences, slippages from restructured assets is ~5-6%.

The banks substantial branch expansion in the past 3-4 years is expected to

sustain a far more favourable deposit mix going forward. Moreover, a lower riskbalance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning costs, which we believe will

enable RoE of 15.5% by FY2014E (with further upside from financial leverage). At

the CMP, the banks core banking business (after adjusting for subsidiaries) is

trading at 1.48x FY2014E ABV (including subsidiaries, at 1.46x FY2014E ABV).

FY2013E 22,356 2.9 7,915 68.7 568.7 1.4 14.2 13.2 1.6

FY2014E 27,157 3.0 9,451 82.0 622.2 1.4 15.5 11.1 1.5

Nestle (CMP:`4,448 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Nestle India posted a 12.7% yoy growth in topline to `1,987cr, which was inline

with our estimates. Topline growth was both on account of higher net realization

and volume growth. While the exports to third parties rose by 56% yoy, exports to

affiliates declined by 24.5%. OPM rose by 205bp yoy to 21.6% on account of

403bp yoy in gross margins to 54.6%. Gross margins improved on account of

higher realization and product portfolio/ channel mix. Finance costs rose steeply to

`22cr (vs.`0.6cr in 1QFCY2012 and `22cr in 2QCYCY2011) due to change in

accounting policy in accordance in Indian Accounting Standards. Net Profit rose by

15% yoy to`246cr.

CY2012E 8,731 21.0 1,103114.4 71.1 38.9 23.4 23.7 4.9

CY2013E 10,539 21.4 1,379143.0 61.4 31.1 16.1 19.0 4.0

Maruti Suzuki (CMP:`1,111 / TP:`1,291 / Upside: 16%)

Maruti Suzuki reported lower-than-expected results for 1QFY2013 owing to 57.3%

yoy increase in other expenditure led by unfavorable forex impact on royaltypayments (140bp yoy and 110bp sequentially) and sharp drop in other income

(down 39% yoy and 62.2% sequentially).


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Net sales grew by a strong 27.5% yoy to`10,778cr which was 11.3% higher than

our estimates driven by 21.3% yoy increase in net average realization. Net

average realization improved on account of price increases and superior product-

mix (higher share of Swift, Dzire and Ertiga in volume-mix). Volumes during thequarter jumped 5.1% yoy led by 5% and 5.8% yoy growth in the domestic and

export volumes, respectively. Domestic growth was led by the new launches, Swift,

Dzire and Ertiga and also due to additional availability of diesel engines from Fiat.

However, volume growth in the Mini segment continues to remain lackluster as the

segment lacks diesel models which are in great demand currently.

On the operating front, margins declined 230bp yoy (stable qoq) to 7.3% primarily

due to 240bp increase in other expenditure. Other expenditure jumped 57.3% yoy

due to foreign exchange impact on royalty payments (up 140bp yoy to 6.2%) and

100bp increase in other manufacturing expenses led by increase in power & fuel

costs and forex losses. On the positive side, raw-material cost as a percentage ofsales declined 20bp yoy (180bp qoq) due to price increases and cost reduction

initiatives which negated the impact of yen appreciation (24% yoy and 7% qoq). As

a result, operating profit declined 3% yoy (8.4% qoq) to `786cr. However, net

profit was down sharply by 22.8% yoy (33.8% qoq) led by lower other income

(down 39% yoy) and significant increase in interest expense.

Going ahead, we believe that 2QFY2013 will be a difficult quarter for the

company as volumes during the quarter will be impacted on account of the labor

strike at the Manesar plant. A quick resolution to the problem will be a positive

thing for the company; however, management is still in the process of accessing

the damage to the facility and has not given any indication regarding the

resumption of operations. If the shutdown at the plant continues until the end of

next month we fear the company may not be able to ramp up in-time to meet the

festival demand. The Manesar plant apart from accounting for ~35% of MSILs

volumes also produces popular models like Swift and Dzire which currently are

driving the sales of the company. We now expect the company to record volume

growth of 6-7% (earlier 10%) in FY2013 and 11-12% in FY2014. We may further

revise our numbers post our interaction with the management. At the CMP of

`1,111, the stock is trading at 12.9x FY2014E earnings.

FY2013E 42,887 5.6 1,951 67.5 12.2 16.5 1.9 9.6 0.5

FY2014E 48,602 6.5 2,488 86.1 13.8 12.9 1.7 6.7 0.4

(CMP:`716/ TP:`1,000 / Upside: 39.7%)

For 1QFY2013, PNB registered a moderate 12.7% yoy growth in Net profit,

despite healthy growth of 18.6% yoy on the Net interest income front, mainly on

back of increased NPA provisioning, considering the continued pressures on the

asset quality being faced by the bank.

For 1QFY2013, the banks business grew at healthy pace, with advances and

deposits registering a growth of 21.3% and 18.9% yoy, respectively. Growth in

advances was primarily on the back of increased lending to the agri and services


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sector. Overall CASA deposits growth remained much lower at 9.8% yoy (savings

deposits grew by 13.2% yoy, while current deposits declined by 2.4% yoy),

compared to growth of 18.8% registered in overall deposits. Consequently,

reported CASA ratio declined to 35.6%. Owing to banks conscious efforts to

reduce short terms loans, the yields on advances improved by 12bp, which

coupled with 43bp improvement in yields on investment (on MTM gains on fixedasset portfolio) aided the 10bp improvement in reported NIMs to 3.6%. Non-

interest income (excluding treasury) grew by 13.3% yoy, aided by higher forex and

CEB income. On the asset quality front, the gross and net NPA ratios increased on

a sequential basis, by 41 and 16bp, respectively. Annualized slippage ratio

remained at elevated level of 3.8%. Incremental slippages, though were spread

across all sectors, but were concentrated in terms of size. Recoveries and upgrades

were significantly higher at`1,466cr during the quarter, compared to average of

~`480cr since 1QFY2011. Going ahead, though the management expects

elevated levels of slippages to continue in-line with slowing economy, but they also

anticipate recoveries and upgradation to remain robust at ~`1,000cr per quarter.

The bank restructured ~`1,239cr during the quarter, thereby taking its

outstanding restructured book to`25,519cr, which is stated borrower-wise.

The banks valuations are currently at low 0.8x FY2014 ABV compared to its eight

year range of 1.01.6x and median of 1.4x, due to the asset quality concerns

facing the sector. Taking into account the banks relatively lower cost of deposits

than peers and valuations even below the lower end of its historical trading range,

we currently have a positive stance on the bank.

FY2013E 20,116 3.2 5,182 152.8 847.6 1.0 18.2 4.9 0.9

FY2014E 23,625 3.3 5,897 173.9 999.9 1.0 18.0 4.3 0.8

(CMP:`291 / TP:`354 / Upside: 21.4%)

For 1QFY2013, Bank of India posted net profit growth of 71.5% yoy to `887cr,

largely aided by write-back of provision on investment of `136cr compared to

provision of`90cr in 1QFY2012. In fact growth in net interest income was limited

to 11.0% (as NIMs were lower by 59bp), which was way below our estimates.

During 1QFY2013, overall advances for the bank registered a healthy growth by

22.9% yoy. Domestic gross advances for the bank grew by 13.8% yoy (aided by

strong growth in retail segment and higher corporate lending), while growth in

international advances was 50.1% yoy (excluding positive impact of INR

depreciation ~30%). On the deposits side, domestic CASA deposits grew by rather

moderate 12.2% yoy, with saving account deposits growing at a slightly better

pace of 14.4% yoy. Reported domestic CASA ratio improved by 156bp yoy to

32.0%. Domestic NIMs for the bank declined by 73bp sequentially to 2.3%, on

back of interest reversal of ~`170cr on Air India restructuring (~22bp impact on

NIMs) and full impact of 25bp reduction in base rate. Foreign NIMs for the bank

declined marginally by 5bp sequentially to 1.5%. Consequently, overall NIM

declined sequentially by 59bp to 2.3%. Non-interest income performance was

strong, with a growth of 34.5% yoy, aided by higher recoveries from written-off


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accounts (more than six times higher). During the quarter, the bank witnessed

asset quality pressures, with 22bp sequential increase in both Gross and net NPA

levels. PCR for the bank dipped sequentially by 332bp to 60.9%. Annualized

slippage ratio came in at 2.8%, highest in the past three quarters. The

management expects recoveries of 60-70% from the slippages of`1,747cr during

the quarter. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth`4,073cr, of which~`3,000cr were on account of restructuring of Air India. As of 1QFY2013, the

outstanding restructured book for the bank (which is stated borrower-wise and

without upgradation on one year of satisfactory performance) stands at `20,589cr.

As per the management, current restructuring pipeline is marginal.

The banks asset quality pressures have resurfaced again during 1QFY2013, after

having moderated in 2HFY2012. Currently, the stock trades at 0.7x of FY2014E

ABV, which is relatively expensive to other better peers in terms of asset quality;

FY2013E 13,159 2.4 3,507 61.1 360.2 0.8 16.6 5.0 0.9

FY2014E 15,851 2.5 4,087 71.1 416.2 0.8 17.0 4.3 0.7

(CMP:`164/ TP:`245 / Upside: 49.2%)

Net profit for 1QFY2013 for Union Bank was up 10.1% yoy to `512cr, in line with

our estimates. Net interest income for 1QFY2013 rose by a moderate 14.6% yoy

to`1,822cr. The margins declined by 25bp qoq on account of interest reversals

during the quarter.

The bank witnessed ~`1,600cr (3.7% annualised slippage rate) worth of slippages

in 1QFY2013 of which `900cr were from non-priority sector. The slippages from

its non-priority sector were mostly on account of chunky NPAs (Pharma company,

Hospitality company, an EPC contractor and smaller accounts form power and

steel segment). The bank expects to recover ~`400-500cr worth of these accounts

by December end. The provisioning coverage ratio declined by over 300bp qoq to

59.0%.

The bank restructured`1,641 worth of accounts in 1QFY2013 of which`1,200cr

were on account of a single SEB. The banks total exposure to SEBs stands around

`10,500cr of which `3,000cr have been restructured till now. The banks expects

further more restructuring on account of SEBs in the forthcoming quarters.

At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.6x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 10,299 2.9 2,327 42.1 237.3 0.8 16.7 4.2 0.8

FY2014E 12,227 3.0 2,725 49.3 288.0 0.8 17.1 3.6 0.6


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United Spirits (CMP:`721 / TP: Under Review / Upside: -)

United Spirits Ltd. (USL) announced good set of numbers for 1QFY2013 results.

The companys net sales grew by modest 6.6% yoy`2,073cr despite only 2%

increase in overall volumes which stood at 31.27mn cases. This was due to higher

sales in the premium segment which increased by 17% yoy to 8mn cases anincrease of 1.2mn cases yoy. EBITDA improved by only 3.3% yoy to `351cr but on

qoq basis it was up by 79.7%.EBITDA margin contracted by 54bp yoy but

improved significantly by 654qoq to 16.9% on back of better revenue mix during

the quarter. PAT increased by 1,348% qoq and 5.3% yoy to`145cr, higher than

EBITDA growth due to higher other income of `45cr during the quarter which

included forex gain of`35cr. Adjusted for other income PAT was down 27.1% yoy

to `100cr.

FY2013E 10,289 13.5 391 31.0 8.1 23.2 1.8 11.8 1.6

FY2014E 11,421 14.3 540 42.9 10.3 16.8 1.6 10.0 1.4

(CMP:`69/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Central bank reported dismal performance on the operating front, with pre-

provisioning profits remaining flattish on a yoy basis. Despite poor operating

performance, reported net profit grew by 19.6% yoy for 1QFY2013, largely aided

by write-back of provision on investments of `39cr compared to provision of

`108cr during 1QFY2012. Though NPA provisioning was higher by 31.3% yoy,

PCR still remains one of lowest in the industry at 40.7%.

During 1QFY2013, advances for the bank grew at healthy pace of 22.4% yoy,

while growth in deposits remained muted at 6.0% yoy, partly due to banks

conscious strategy to reduce high cost bulk deposits (bulk deposits and CDs as %

to overall deposits at 31.3% in 1QFY2013 compared to 31.8% in 4QFY2012).

Despite moderate growth of in saving deposits, growth in overall CASA deposit

remained rather muted at 7.0% yoy, mainly on back of 14.6% yoy decline

witnessed in current deposits, which was in-line with sectoral trends. CASA ratio

witnessed an improvement of 31bp yoy to 32.9%. Reported NIM for the bank

improved marginally by 5bp qoq. Strong growth of 29.1% yoy in fee income led to

higher non-interest income (23.9% yoy). The bank continued to face asset quality

pressures, with sequentially decline witnessed in both gross and net NPA ratios.

Annualized slippages ratio for the quarter, came in at 3.9% compared to 10.9% in

4QFY2012 (50% of which was attributed to complete CBS switchover). Slippages

at `1,448cr, though are lower compared to `3,543cr in 4QFY2012, but still

remain elevated considering the average of`651cr over the past eight quarters till

3QFY2012. PCR improved slightly by 14bp qoq, but still remains one of the lowest

in the industry at 40.7%. Additionally, the bank restructured loans worth`2,674cr

during the quarter, (out of which ~`2,400cr pertained to discoms), taking its

outstanding restructured book to`20,686cr.

At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV compared to its trading

range of 0.61.7x with a median of 1.2x since its listing in 2007. However, we

believe this is outweighed by the substantial concerns on its asset quality. While the


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stock has corrected substantially over the past year, it is still trading higher than

some of the other mid-size PSU banks with a better asset-quality outlook and

return ratios.

FY2013E 7,181 2.5 1,353 16.3 94.9 0.5 12.7 4.5 0.8

FY2014E 8,365 2.7 1,752 21.8 107.6 0.6 15.1 3.4 0.7

Indraprasth Gas reported its 1QFY2013 results. Net sales grew by 41.5% yoy to

`760cr which was driven by increases in both, sales as well as realistions. CNG

volumes grew by 13.0% yoy while PNG volumes grew by 23.0% yoy during the

quarter. EBITDA increased by 13.8% yoy to `180cr. However, EBITDA margin

slipped 580bp yoy to 23.7% due to higher cost of gas purchases. Further, interest

expense stood at `16cr in 1QFY2013, compared to `9cr in 1QFY2012. Hence,

net profit grew by 6.2 % yoy to`85cr.

FY2013E 2,870 27.8 409 29.2 29.4 14.3 3.8 7.3 2.0

FY2014E 3,002 29.6 466 33.3 26.6 12.6 3.0 6.1 1.8

IRB Infra (CMP:`113 / TP:`166 / Upside: 47%)

For 1QFY2013, IRB Infrastructure (IRB) reported a healthy set of numbers above

our and street expectations. The companys revenue came in much higher-than-

expectations led by strong execution in BOT projects. Further, stable EBITDA

margins along with robust revenue growth led to better performance on the

earnings front as well. IRBs top line witnessed growth of 22.3% yoy to `980cr,

significantly ahead of our and street estimate of `869cr and`857cr respectively.

This robust performance was on the back of maintaining healthy execution pace

for under-construction projects.The E&C segments revenue grew by 25.7% yoy to

`750cr and the BOT segment witnessed 12.6% growth to `262cr. On the

EBITDAM front, IRBs margin came in at 43.4% a jump of 390bp on yoy basis,

higher than our estimate of 42.5%. Stable input prices led to EBITDAM of 27.9%

(excluding other income) for E&C segment. Interest cost came in at `154cr,

registering a jump of 31.2%/2.7% on a yoy/qoq basis. At the earnings front, IRB

reported growth of 5.7% to `142cr, above our estimate of`111cr on account of

better-than-expected performance on the revenue and EBITDAM front. IRB is

looking at both organic and inorganic options for growth with a threshold of 18%

equity IRR and intends to allot 20% of consolidated cash flow post debt repayment

towards acquisitions. IRB has also decided to utilize ~20% of post-tax consolidated

profit towards dividend. IRB has a robust order book of `5,746cr (2.0x FY2013E

E&C revenue, excluding O&M orders), which lends revenue visibility. Although a

slowdown in order awarding by NHAI in road sector has been witnessed in

1QFY2013 IRB expects ordering activity to improve going ahead. As far as road


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EPC contracts are concerned IRB will take a call to bid or not once draft agreement

is out.

FY2013E 3,964 42.3 51415.5 16.6 7.3 1.1 5.9 2.5

FY2014E 4,582 40.2 56316.9 15.7 6.7 1.0 6.0 2.4

CESC (CMP:`283 / TP: 342/ Upside: 21%)

CESC posted a 25.5% yoy growth in its standalone topline to `1,404cr aided by

better realization and 9% increase in sales volume to 2,430MU. Sales volume

grew on account of better demand and was met by higher power purchase which

rose by 45.6% yoy to 632MU.Power generation rose by 2% yoy, with PLF moving

up by 240bp yoy to 96.4%. OPM stood at 19.5% down 309bp yoy on account of a

steep increase in power purchase. The companys power purchase cost rose by79.6% yoy to`343cr. On the retail business front ( carried out through subsidiary

Spencers) average sales rose by 13.1% yoy to `1,151/sqft, while the same store

sales were higher by 15.4% yoy at `1,201/sq ft. During the quarter, store level

Ebitda for same stores, rose by 65.3% yoy to`43/sqft. Net Profit rose 12.6% yoy

to`125cr.

FY2013E 5,084 24.2 568 45.2 11.2 6.3 0.7 4.7 1.1

FY2014E 5,512 23.8 610 48.5 10.9 5.8 0.6 4.4 1.0

(CMP:`87/ TP:`107 / Upside: 22.8%)

For 1QFY2013, Dena Bank registered a healthy set of results with net profit

growing by 42.0% yoy to`239cr, higher than our estimates primarily due to lower

provisioning expenses than estimated by us.

On the NII front, the performance was healthy with 37.1% yoy growth; the asset

quality held up pretty well with slippages ratio of only 1.35% (healthy relative to

what other banks have been reporting). The bank restructured `852cr during

1QFY2013 taking the outstanding restructured book to`4,255cr.

The bank has grown its balance sheet at an aggressive pace over the last 3

quarters. The advances grew by 39.1% yoy, while deposits were up by 26.1% yoy.

Owing to slower growth in CASA deposits, the CASA ratio declined by over 350bp

to 30.9% as of 1QFY2013. Consequently, the NIMs of the bank declined by

~15bp qoq to 3.1%.


11/27



FY2013E 3,177 2.8 882 25.2 143.7 0.9 18.9 3 .6 0.6

FY2014E 3,595 2.8 887 25.3 165.0 0.8 16.4 3 .6 0.6

(CMP:`38 / TP:`43 / Upside: 14%)

TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported better-than-expected results for 1QFY2013

led by upward revision in reported volumes (volumes revised upwards by 5.4%)

and stronger than expected net average realization.

TVSL reported better-than-expected net sales growth of 4.2% yoy (11.8% qoq) to

`1,820cr mainly on account of upward revision in volumes by 5.4% and also due

to strong growth in net average realization (up 8% yoy). Volume for 1QFY2013 (as

per SIAM) witnessed a decline of 3% yoy (1.7% qoq) led by 10.1% and 4% yoy

decline in motorcycle and scooter volumes, respectively. Two-wheeler demand off-late has witnessed moderation in growth and increase in competitive activity which

has resulted in poor performance by TVSL. Management clarified that there is a

difference in accounting treatment for monthly and quarterly volumes as for sales

outside Tamil Nadu, especially in the North, TVSL bills vehicles to its subsidiary

Sundaram Auto Components (SACL), which in turn sells vehicles to dealers. For

monthly volumes, TVSL reports sales to dealers and by SACL to dealers. However,

for quarterly volumes, sales by TVSL to SACL and to dealers is reported and hence

the difference.

On the operating front, EBITDA margin came in-line with our estimates at 5.9%,

showing a decline of 80bp yoy (flat qoq) aided by increase in other expenditureprimarily due to increase in advertising spends (on key brands like Wego, Star City,

Sport and recently introduced Apache and Scooty Pep). Raw-material expenses on

the other hand witnessed a decline of 180bp yoy (flat sequentially) during the

quarter. As a result, operating profit declined 8.2% yoy (up 8.7% qoq). Net profit

during the quarter registered a decline of 13.1% yoy (down 10.7% qoq) to`51cr;

14% above our estimates on account of strong top-line growth.

We broadly retain our revenue and earnings estimates for TVSL. However, we

expect a challenging environment for the company due to rising competition in the

two-wheeler sector amidst moderation in demand. We believe that the upcoming

launches, new motorcycle in the executive segment in 2QFY2013 and new scooterin 4QFY2013 will be the key for the company to regain volume momentum going

ahead. At `38, TVSL is trading at 7x FY2014E earnings.

FY2013E 7,545 6.2 235 4.9 18.8 7.7 1.4 3.3 0.2

FY2014E 8,301 6.1 255 5.4 18.1 7.0 1.2 2.9 0.2

HCC (CMP:`17 / TP: - / Upside: -)

For 1QFY2013, HCC continued its poor performance on the numbers front as

expected. HCCs top line came in line with our estimate. The companys dismal


12/27



performance at the EBITDAM level continued for second consecutive quarter.

Despite poor show at EBITDAM, loss at earnings level was lower than our estimate

owing to higher other income.On the top-line front, HCCs revenue declined by

8.4% yoy to `969cr in line with our estimate of `973cr. EBITDAM came in at

dismal 7.1%, a dip of 590bp yoy and lower than our estimate of 10.6%. Further,

HCCs management hopes to maintain EBITDAM at ~11% for FY2013. On theearnings front, HCC reported a loss of `31cr vs. profit of `3cr in 1QFY2012,

against our estimate of loss of`61cr. Loss was lower than our estimate owing to

jump in other income (includes `26cr from sale of land) and exceptional item of

`9.5cr (reversal of interest cost for 4QFY2012). Interest cost witnessed an increase

of 37.5% on yoy basis and came in at `128cr. The total outstanding order book

stands at`15,020cr (excluding L1 orders of `3,439cr) with muted order inflowof

~`100cr during the quarter.

.

FY2013E 4,239 9.9 (137) (2.3) - - 0.9 11.6 1.1

FY2014E 4,522 11.2 (58) (1.0) - - 1.0 10.3 1.2

Sarda Energy (CMP:`116 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Sarda Energy reported its 1QFY2013 results. Net sales grew by 32.7% yoy to

`337cr driven by increase in Steel segment revenues. Steel segment revenues

increased by 28.4% yoy to`208cr, while Ferro Alloys segment revenues declined

62.6% yoy to `128cr. The companys EBITDA increased by 58.3% yoy to `58cr

due to higher profits from Ferro Alloy segment. Ferro Alloy segment EBIT increasedby 363.1% yoy to`40cr. The companys PAT increased by 42.5% yoy to `20cr in

line with increase in operating profit.

FY2013E1,070 17.1 55 15.4 7.3 8.4 0.6 4.9 0.8

FY2014E1,132 20.6 88 24.6 10.9 5.2 0.5 3.6 0.7

For 2QCY2012, VIL reported muted top-line growth of 1.9% yoy to`139cr, 9.6%

lower than our estimate of `154cr. The companys EBITDA margin contracted by

216bp yoy to 16.1% in 2QCY2012 on the back of higher employee cost & other

expenses, however on a sequential basis, the margin expanded by 149bp due to

declining raw material cost. Pressure on operating front led to decline in PAT by

12.4% yoy to 12.6cr, in line with our estimates of `12.2cr. Considering a

slowdown in the steel industry, demand outlook remains a concern. Hence, we

have further reduced our estimates for CY2012 and CY2013.

560 16.1 50 25 31.3 14.9 2.2 7.5 1.2

611 17.0 58 29 31.6 12.8 1.9 6.4 1.1


13/27



Force Motors (CMP:`442 / TP: Under Review / Upside: -)Force Motors reported disappointing set of numbers for 1QFY2013. The

company's top line grew by 17% yoy but 17% lower qoq and came in at `505cr,

while 8% lower than our estimate of`549cr. EBITDA declined by 36% sequentially

to`

17.2cr, 39% lower than our estimate of`

28cr. EBITDA margin fell consistentlyfor second quarter and stood at 3.4%, 99 bps lower than previous quarter.

Substantial amount of other income of`12cr, helped revive the bottom line which

stood at `10.3cr, 37% lower sequentially, vis--vis our estimate of `13cr.

FY2013E 2428 5.2 57 43 4.8 10.2 0.5 2.0 0.1

FY2014E 2854 6.2100 76 7.8 5.8 0.5 1.5 0.1

Siyaram Silk Mills (CMP: / TP: Under Review / Upside: - )

Siyaram Silk Mills (SSM) announced decent set of numbers for 1QFY2013 results.

The companys net sales grew by modest 13.5% yoy`206cr. Despite modest

revenue growth, EBITDA increased by only 5.3% yoy to `23cr on the back of

margin contraction. EBITDA margin contracted by 87bp yoy to 11.2%. PAT

increased by 8.2% yoy to `10cr, higher than EBITDA growth due to higher other

income during the quarter, which increased by 77.8% yoy to`3cr.

FY2013E1,070 17.1 55 15.4 7.3 8.4 0.6 4.9 0.8

FY2014E1,132 20.6 88 24.6 10.9 5.2 0.5 3.6 0.7

Result Previews

GAIL (CMP:`345 / TP: - / Upside: -)

GAIL is expected to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the

companys top-line to grow by 20.7% yoy to `10,705cr. However, operating

margin is expected to contract 670bp yoy to 11.1%. On the bottom-line front, we

expect GAIL to report a decrease of 23.0% yoy to `758cr due to decrease in

operating margin.

FY2013E 50,472 15.2 4,494 35.4 19.0 9.7 1.7 5.0 0.8

FY2014E 55,502 15.6 4,697 37.0 17.2 9.3 1.5 4.1 0.6

(CMP:`650/ TP:`877 / Upside: 35.0%)

Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expectthe bank to report a strong 25.5% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII) to

`2,883cr. Non-interest income is expected to grow by 25.9% yoy to `807cr.

Operating expenses are expected to increase by 28.2% yoy to `1,418cr. However,


14/27



provisioning expenses are also expected to be higher significantly by 52.6% yoy to

`616cr. Consequently, Net profit growth is expected to be 8.3% to`1,118cr. At the

CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 16,157 2.7 5,102 123.7 762.1 1.0 17.3 5.3 0.9

FY2014E 19,475 2.7 6,114 148.3 877.3 1.1 18.1 4.4 0.7

(CMP:`129/ TP:`153 / Upside: 18.4%)

Allahabad Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect

the bank to report a growth of 15.2% yoy in its net interest income to `1,354cr.

Even, on the non-interest income front the bank is expected to report a moderate

growth of 12.1% yoy to`321cr. Operating expenses are expected to be higher by25.7% yoy to`719cr, provisioning expenses are expected to rise by a substantial

35.4% yoy to`433cr. Net profit is expected to de-grow by 3.6% yoy to`403cr. At

the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 7,467 3.2 1,875 37.5 221.0 1.0 18.1 3.4 0.6

FY2014E 8,685 3.3 2,075 41.5 254.5 0.9 17.4 3.1 0.5

(CMP:`213/ TP:`269 / Upside: 26.4%)

Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013

results today. We expect the bank to report a moderate 9.7% yoy growth in Net

Interest Income (NII) to `1,117cr. Non-interest income is expected to de-grow

slightly by 1.7% yoy to `318cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by

15.7% yoy to `626cr. Provisioning expenses are also expected to be higher by

19.0% yoy to`374cr. Consequently, Net profit is expected to de-grow by 17.2% to

`294cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 6,497 2.8 1,559 53.4 391.2 0.8 13.3 4.0 0.5

FY2014E 7,533 2.8 1,865 63.9 449.0 0.9 14.3 3.3 0.5

(CMP:`391/ TP:`465 / Upside: 18.9%)

Corporation Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We

expect the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 23.0% yoy to `870cr. The

operating profit of the bank is expected to grow at a strong pace of 27.7% yoy to

`736cr. Net Profit growth is expected remain flattish on a yoy basis to `353cr,

mainly due to increase in tax expenses to`151cr compared to`58cr in1QFY2012.


15/27



At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 5,294 2.3 1,575 106.3 622.0 0.9 17.7 3.7 0.6

FY2014E 6,070 2.3 1,631 110.1 716.0 0.8 16.1 3.6 0.5

(CMP:`70/ TP:`91 / Upside: 30.6%)

Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) is slated to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We

expect the bank to report a healthy 17.0% yoy growth in Net Interest Income (NII)

to `1,389cr. Non-interest income is also expected to grow by 17.3% yoy to

`398cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 16.0% yoy to `840cr.

However, provisioning expenses are expected to be decline by 15.0% yoy to

`463cr. Consequently, Net profit is expected to grow by 59.0% to `327cr. At theCMP, the stock is trading at 0.4x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 7,578 2.6 1,373 17.2 142.2 0.6 12.1 4.1 0.5

FY2014E 8,662 2.7 1,796 22.5 159.0 0.7 14.3 3.1 0.4

(CMP:`92/ TP:`114 / Upside: 23.4%)

Syndicate Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect

the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 23.7% yoy to `1,374cr. The operating

profit of the bank is expected to grow at a healthy pace of 18.6% yoy to `881cr.

Net Profit is expected to de-grow by 9.3% on a yoy basis to `311cr, mainly due to

39.2% yoy growth in provisioning expenses and increase in tax expenses to`115cr

compared to`73cr in1QFY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2014E

ABV.

FY2013E 7,176 3.1 1,513 25.1 152.8 0.8 17.6 3.7 0.6

FY2014E 8,299 3.1 1,753 29.1 175.0 0.8 17.8 3.2 0.5

Sadbhav Engineering (CMP:`138 / TP:`182 / Upside: 32%)

We expect Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) to post decent numbers in 1QFY2013. The

companys revenue is expected to increase by 4.5% to `640cr. EBITDA margin is

expected to witness a dip of 80bp yoy to 10.3%. On the earnings front, the

company is expected to post a jump of 20.6% yoy to `41cr.


16/27



FY2013E 2,789 10.6 127 8.4 15.0 16.4 2.2 8.4 0.9

FY2014E 3,147 10.7 157 10.4 15.6 13.2 1.9 7.6 0.8

Indoco Remedies is expected to report top-line growth of 36.2%yoy to `171cr.

OPM is expected to expand by 240bp yoy to 15.0%, driven by growth in domestic

formulation sales. As a result, net profit is expected to increase by 21.8% yoy to

`14.3cr on the back of improvement in OPM.

.

FY2013E 685 15.2 68 7.4 15.9 7.4 1.0 5.6 0.9

FY2014E 873 15.2 82 8.9 16.3 6.2 0.9 4.6 0.7

PVR is slated to announce its 1QFY2013 results. Top-line is expected to grow by

24% yoy to`145cr. On the operating front, OPM is expected to decline by 133bp

yoy to 15.2% mainly due to impact of service tax on rent. The company is expected

to report 32% yoy growth in Net Profit to`5cr. We maintain our Neutral rating on

the stock.

FY2013E 625 16.5 36 11.9 11.9 13.5 1.5 6.5 1.0

FY2014E 732 15.7 40 13.3 12.0 12.1 1.4 5.8 0.8

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net profit 1,147 1,033 11 1,518 (24)

Net sales 11,188 8,867 26 10,455 7

EBITDA 1,507 1,577 (4) 998 51

EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 17.8 9.5

Net profit 894 985 (9) 483 85

Net sales 1,871 1,550 21 1,814 3

EBITDA 435 370 18 399 9

EBITDA margin (%) 23.2 23.9 22.0

Net profit 309 253 22 292 6


17/27



Net profit 502 335 50 771 (35)

Net sales 3,387 3,142 8 4,023 (16)

EBITDA 814 #DIV/0! 1,056 (23)

EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 0.0 26.2

Net profit 107 107 0 284 (62)

Net sales 2,437 2,021 21 2,281 7

EBITDA 225 185 22 237 (5)

EBITDA margin (%) 9.2 9.2 10.4

Net profit 164 148 11 145 13

Net profit 198 146 36 238 (17)

Net sales 1,444 819 76 998 45

EBITDA 347 410 (15) 96 261

EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 50.1 9.6

Net profit(65)

177 (137)(290)

(78)

Net sales 673 516 30 617 9

EBITDA 461 363 27 466 (1)

EBITDA margin (%) 68.5 70.3 75.5

Net profit 326 254 28 339 (4)

Economic and Political News

EGoM to meet next week to review monsoon situation

Governments public debt up 4.9% in Apr-Jun 2012

Monsoon about 21-22% below average until July end

Corporate News

Deccan Chronicle promoters pledge 54% stake to Future Cap

RCom accuses Bharti Airtel of blocking international calls

Suzlon redeems FCCBs worth`1,993cr

USFDA lifts ban on Dr Reddy's Mexico plantSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


18/27

Date Company

July 30, 2012GAIL, Bank of Baroda, Oriental Bank, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Corporation Bank, Syndicate Bank, Sadbhav Engg.,SpiceJet, Jyoti Structures, Indoco Remedies, JK Tyre, Subros

July 31, 2012Cipla, Titan Inds., Jaiprakash Asso., Petronet LNG, IDBI Bank, Bhushan Steel, Ipca labs, Hexaware, KEC International,Dishman Pharma

August 01, 2012 Mundra Port, Adani Power, Federal Bank, PVR, CEAT

August 02, 2012 Cummins India, Mahindra Satyam, Glenmark Pharma., Madras Cements

August 03, 2012 Sun TV Network, Marico, United Bank, BGR Energy , Graphite India, Abbott India

August 04, 2012 Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., UCO Bank, Prakash Industries, Relaxo

August 06, 2012 SAIL, DLF, Cadila Healthcare, Andhra Bank, Britannia, LMW, PTC India

August 07, 2012 Tata Chemicals, MOIL, Aurobindo Pharma, Punj Lloyd

August 08, 2012 Bharti Airtel, M&M, Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., ABB, Goodyear, HEG

August 09, 2012IOC, Adani Enterp., Ranbaxy, HPCL, GMR Infra., Motherson Sumi, GSPL, ITNL, Apollo Tyres, Alembic Pharma,Hitachi, ITD Cementation

August 10, 2012 Siemens, BPCL

August 11, 2012 ONGC

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

July 30, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value Jul F (21.60) (21.60)

July 31, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100Jul 62.00 61.40

Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jul 7.00 7.00

India RBI Repo rate % Jul 31 8.00 8.00

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jul 31 4.75 4.75

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jul 31 7.00 7.00

August 01, 2012 Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul F 43.30 43.30

India Imports YoY% % Change Jun (7.36) --

India Exports YoY% % Change Jun (4.16) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 48.60 48.40

China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.20 50.50

US FOMC rate decision % Aug 1 0.25 0.25

August 02, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jul 28 353.00 370.00

UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 2 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 2 0.75 0.75

August 03, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Jul F 49.70 49.70

US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 80.00 100.00

US Unnemployment rate % Jul 8.20 8.20

August 07, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (1.60) --

August 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 9.50 --

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jul 2.20 --

August 10, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jun 2.40 --

China Exports YoY% % Change Jul 11.30 --



July 30, 2012

Market Outlook


19/27

Market StrategyJuly 30, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

5. 9

7 .5

9. 8

7. 4

9 .4

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

9 .5

3. 7 3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6 .0

2. 7

1. 0

4. 3

(3.2)

(0.9)

2. 4

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

Jun

-11

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 4 9. 810.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 3

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Jun

-11

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

Jun

-11

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Expo rts yo y g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)


Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


20/27

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 122 - 2,374 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 17.4 15.3 3.7 3.1 22.8 22.3 1.7 1.4

United Phosphorus Buy 121 183 5,575 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.1 6.6 1.2 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 291 345 2,486 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.0 8.9 2.3 1.9 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.7

Apollo Tyres Buy 79 100 4,004 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.6 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 21 30 5,667 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 9.8 7.8 1.8 1.6 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Accumulate 391 430 591 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.6 9.1 2.1 1.8 21.2 21.3 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,582 1,698 45,779 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 14.6 13.0 6.0 4.9 46.1 41.3 1.8 1.5

Bharat Forge Buy 291 372 6,784 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.1 11.0 2.5 2.1 21.0 21.0 1.0 0.9

Bosch India Accumulate 8,705 9,206 27,331 9,106 10,255 19.4 19.3 410.2 460.3 21.2 18.9 4.7 3.9 22.1 20.4 2.6 2.3

CEAT Buy 95 164 325 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Buy 127 149 10,757 5,899 6,771 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.1 17.2 13.9 3.1 2.6 19.0 20.2 1.5 1.2

FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,450 1,560 2,409 1,505 1,747 17.7 18.0 111.5 130.0 13.0 11.2 2.7 2.2 22.8 21.7 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 2,007 2,428 40,074 26,097 29,963 15.0 15.3 139.5 151.8 14.4 13.2 6.8 5.2 54.6 44.3 1.3 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 89 135 365 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 688 824 42,220 35,881 40,746 10.0 10.0 47.5 53.2 14.5 12.9 2.9 2.5 21.3 20.5 0.9 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,111 1,297 32,088 43,264 49,033 5.6 6.5 67.8 86.5 16.4 12.8 1.9 1.7 12.2 13.9 0.5 0.4

Motherson Sumi Buy 162 216 6,355 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.2 9.0 2.9 2.3 26.2 28.4 0.4 0.4

Subros Buy 29 36 172 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 6.4 5.6 0.6 0.6 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 213 305 56,713 191,303 211,004 13.0 12.9 40.7 43.8 5.2 4.9 1.8 1.5 36.0 33.1 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 38 43 1,796 7,545 8,301 6.2 6.1 4.9 5.4 7.7 7.0 1.4 1.2 18.8 18.2 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 776 498 16,437 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 42.6 37.4 5.7 5.1 14.4 14.6 1.8 1.6BGR Energy Neutral 268 - 1,936 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 8.9 8.3 1.6 1.4 18.4 17.6 1.0 1.0

BHEL Neutral 208 - 50,971 47,801 43,757 19.4 19.8 25.7 23.9 8.1 8.7 1.7 1.5 22.7 18.3 1.0 0.8

Blue Star Neutral 184 - 1,656 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 19.2 11.3 3.8 3.1 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 114 128 7,342 12,691 14,096 7.0 8.5 6.5 9.1 17.6 12.5 1.9 1.7 11.1 14.2 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 37 67 303 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 57 73 1,459 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.4 4.7 1.0 0.9 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Buy 1,580 1,992 1,780 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.0 9.5 1.8 1.7 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 481 - 5,727 5,514 5,559 8.9 9.6 26.9 28.4 17.9 16.9 3.1 2.7 18.4 17.1 1.0 1.0


July 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


21/27



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,292 - 24,262 11,096 12,607 21.0 21.7 76.1 82.9 17.0 15.6 3.2 2.9 19.3 19.3 1.9 1.6

Ambuja Cements Neutral 181 - 27,781 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 16.7 15.0 3.5 3.1 19.7 19.8 2.3 1.9

India Cements Neutral 79 - 2,422 4,364 4,791 18.9 19.1 9.2 11.4 8.5 6.9 0.7 0.6 8.0 9.5 0.5 0.4

J K Lakshmi Cements Reduce 86 79 1,055 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 15.2 16.8 5.7 5.1 0.8 0.7 13.8 14.0 0.7 1.0

Madras Cements Neutral 158 - 3,766 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.9 9.3 1.6 1.4 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4

Shree Cements Neutral 3,045 - 10,608 5,519 6,293 24.5 23.7 156.6 225.3 19.4 13.5 4.8 4.1 22.3 26.0 1.6 1.3

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,628 - 44,616 20,167 22,752 21.7 23.0 90.8 107.8 17.9 15.1 17.9 15.1 - - 1.8 1.7Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 204 273 1,076 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.0 7.7 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 297 2,489 2,755 7.0 7.8 3.0 4.0 5.4 4.0 0.5 0.4 8.7 10.8 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 17 - 1,013 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (9.3) (21.4) 1.0 1.1 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 113 166 3,771 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 7.6 6.7 1.1 1.0 16.1 15.8 2.6 2.4

ITNL Buy 168 265 3,262 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.9 27.8 7.3 6.1 1.1 0.9 15.5 16.4 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 42 61 1,131 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 16.7 9.3 0.6 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 70 88 14,853 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 16.5 14.0 1.4 1.3 8.5 9.3 2.3 2.0

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,320 1,553 80,884 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 16.6 15.5 2.8 2.5 16.3 15.1 1.5 1.3

Madhucon Proj Buy 34 56 252 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.4 7.3 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 36 - 915 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 21.7 18.5 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 78 - 547 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.6 5.4 0.3 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

Punj Lloyd Neutral 47 - 1,563 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 26.1 14.7 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 135 182 2,033 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 16.0 13.0 2.2 1.9 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 207 265 1,025 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 8.8 7.1 0.8 0.7 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Buy 129 153 6,450 7,467 8,685 3.2 3.3 37.5 41.5 3.4 3.1 0.6 0.5 18.1 17.4 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 100 - 5,618 5,225 6,024 3.3 3.3 22.7 25.4 4.4 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.0 15.8 - -

Axis Bank Buy 998 1,373 41,348 15,961 19,583 3.1 3.2 117.3 143.1 8.5 7.0 1.6 1.3 20.1 20.8 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 650 877 25,435 16,157 19,475 2.7 2.7 123.7 148.3 5.3 4.4 0.9 0.7 17.3 18.1 - -

Bank of India Buy 291 354 16,717 13,159 15,851 2.4 2.5 61.1 71.1 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 16.6 17.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 45 47 2,662 3,471 3,889 3.1 3.1 9.0 11.5 5.0 3.9 0.6 0.6 13.7 15.5 - -

Canara Bank Buy 348 421 15,421 11,334 13,629 2.2 2.3 75.4 85.1 4.6 4.1 0.7 0.6 15.2 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 69 - 5,068 7,181 8,365 2.5 2.7 16.3 21.8 4.2 3.2 0.7 0.6 12.7 15.1 - -


July 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


22/27



Financials

Corporation Bank Buy 391 465 5,797 5,294 6,070 2.3 2.3 106.3 110.1 3.7 3.6 0.6 0.6 17.7 16.2 - -

Dena Bank Buy 87 107 3,056 3,177 3,595 2.8 2.8 25.2 25.4 3.5 3.4 0.6 0.5 18.9 16.4 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 401 - 6,852 2,736 3,165 3.4 3.4 49.3 57.4 8.1 7.0 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.5 - -

HDFC Neutral 674 - 100,650 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 21.4 17.8 4.3 3.8 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 584 - 137,645 21,936 27,454 4.4 4.4 28.7 36.0 20.4 16.2 3.9 3.3 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 928 1,169 106,688 22,356 27,157 2.9 3.0 68.7 82.0 13.5 11.3 1.6 1.5 14.2 15.5 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 85 109 10,879 8,152 9,907 1.9 2.1 19.7 24.1 4.3 3.5 0.6 0.5 13.6 15.0 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 174 197 7,495 6,294 7,191 3.4 3.4 40.6 44.9 4.3 3.9 0.7 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -

IOB Buy 70 91 5,579 7,578 8,662 2.6 2.7 17.2 22.5 4.1 3.1 0.5 0.4 12.1 14.3 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 905 979 4,389 2,525 2,858 3.5 3.5 175.8 183.1 5.2 4.9 0.9 0.8 19.3 17.5 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 249 275 12,579 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 11.8 8.7 1.9 1.7 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 213 269 6,217 6,497 7,533 2.8 2.8 53.4 63.9 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.5 13.3 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 716 1,000 24,280 20,116 23,625 3.3 3.4 152.8 173.9 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.7 18.2 18.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 23 - 2,565 1,514 1,717 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.2 5.7 5.4 1.1 0.9 20.5 18.5 - -

St Bk of India Buy 1,941 2,443 130,263 67,783 78,208 3.7 3.6 226.0 264.2 8.6 7.4 1.4 1.2 17.7 18.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 92 114 5,547 7,176 8,299 3.1 3.1 25.1 29.1 3.7 3.2 0.6 0.5 17.6 17.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 67 - 4,477 5,642 6,438 2.5 2.5 16.4 17.6 4.1 3.8 0.8 0.7 16.2 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 164 245 9,032 10,299 12,227 2.9 3.0 42.1 49.3 3.9 3.3 0.7 0.6 16.7 17.1 - -

United Bank Buy 53 78 1,926 3,599 4,212 2.8 3.0 18.2 22.3 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.4 15.0 16.2 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 52 - 2,559 2,579 3,028 2.1 2.3 8.8 11.6 5.9 4.5 0.7 0.6 11.1 13.3 - -

Yes Bank Buy 353 453 12,502 3,255 4,228 2.8 3.0 34.2 42.7 10.3 8.3 2.2 1.8 23.3 23.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,505 - 33,617 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 29.0 24.2 9.7 7.6 37.4 35.3 2.9 2.5Britannia Buy 470 633 5,612 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 22.7 17.1 8.9 6.6 42.7 44.3 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,135 - 15,430 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.3 34.6 41.0 32.8 27.7 30.2 22.9 99.5 94.1 5.0 4.3

Dabur India Neutral 118 - 20,608 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 28.5 24.1 10.3 8.4 39.3 42.0 3.5 3.0

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,653 - 11,158 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 103.0 123.3 25.8 21.5 7.9 6.4 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

Godrej Consumer Neutral 636 - 21,656 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 27.9 23.4 7.7 6.2 31.3 38.4 3.8 3.2

HUL Neutral 465 - 100,459 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 32.6 28.2 19.4 14.9 70.9 59.8 3.8 3.2

ITC Neutral 254 - 199,273 29,588 34,063 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 27.3 23.4 8.8 7.2 35.2 33.8 6.5 5.5


July 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


23/27



FMCG

Marico Neutral 195 - 12,597 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 29.4 24.0 7.9 6.2 30.0 28.8 2.7 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 4,448 - 42,886 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 114.4 143.0 38.9 31.1 23.4 16.1 71.1 61.4 4.9 4.0

Tata Global Accumulate 121 136 7,461 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 19.2 16.1 1.9 1.8 9.5 10.9 1.0 0.9

IT

HCL Tech Accumulate 517 585 35,815 24,400 27,049 18.6 17.5 41.1 45.0 12.6 11.5 2.8 2.4 22.7 21.1 1.4 1.2

Hexaware Accumulate 116 132 3,448 1,921 2,178 20.6 20.0 10.4 11.4 11.2 10.2 2.7 2.3 24.7 23.4 1.5 1.3

Infosys Buy 2,149 2,530 123,394 39,151 41,743 31.6 31.9 161.9 174.5 13.3 12.3 3.2 2.7 23.8 22.1 2.6 2.3Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 166 187 1,853 1,889 2,065 18.0 17.5 18.0 19.7 9.2 8.5 1.3 1.2 14.5 13.7 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Neutral 121 - 2,157 2,149 2,331 15.6 14.8 10.7 11.2 11.3 10.8 2.4 1.9 20.6 17.8 1.0 0.9

Mahindra Satyam Neutral 84 - 9,926 7,492 8,038 17.0 16.3 8.1 8.3 10.4 10.1 1.5 1.3 14.1 12.6 0.9 0.8

Mindtree Accumulate 623 708 2,534 2,341 2,513 18.6 17.1 66.5 70.8 9.4 8.8 2.1 1.7 22.3 19.3 0.9 0.8

Mphasis Neutral 388 - 8,157 5,704 6,009 18.6 17.7 36.0 37.1 10.8 10.5 1.5 1.3 14.0 12.6 1.0 0.8

NIIT Buy 38 52 621 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.3 4.3 0.9 0.8 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

Persistent Accumulate 366 398 1,463 1,193 1,278 25.6 24.3 42.6 44.3 8.6 8.3 1.5 1.3 17.2 15.5 0.9 0.7

TCS Accumulate 1,226 1,304 239,906 61,046 67,507 29.3 29.1 67.3 72.4 18.2 16.9 5.8 4.8 31.9 28.3 3.7 3.3

Tech Mahindra Neutral 717 - 9,141 6,282 6,477 17.5 16.5 82.9 85.0 8.7 8.4 1.9 1.6 21.6 18.4 1.4 1.3

Wipro Buy 334 420 82,248 43,492 48,332 19.4 19.3 25.1 28.0 13.3 11.9 2.5 2.2 18.6 18.0 1.6 1.3

Media

D B Corp Buy 198 236 3,632 1,597 1,785 22.9 24.2 11.1 13.9 17.8 14.2 3.4 2.9 20.2 22.1 2.2 1.9

HT Media Buy 84 113 1,981 2,111 2,263 15.2 15.2 7.3 8.1 11.5 10.4 1.2 1.1 11.2 11.2 0.5 0.3

Jagran Prakashan Buy 88 125 2,791 1,521 1,698 22.6 23.1 6.2 6.4 14.4 13.7 3.5 3.0 20.7 23.9 2.1 1.8

PVR Neutral 161 - 417 625 732 16.5 15.7 11.9 13.3 13.5 12.1 1.3 1.2 11.9 12.0 1.1 0.9

Sun TV Network Neutral 262 - 10,311 2,002 2,296 77.1 76.7 18.9 22.1 13.9 11.9 3.5 3.1 27.7 28.3 4.6 3.9Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Reduce 470 429 9,983 11,408 13,773 31.0 30.0 53.7 60.8 8.8 7.7 1.2 1.1 15.3 14.9 2.6 2.2

Coal India Neutral 354 - 223,410 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 14.7 13.5 4.0 3.3 30.4 26.8 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Buy 18 22 625 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 8.9 6.7 0.4 0.1 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Buy 117 142 49,309 12,446 13,538 56.1 56.6 15.2 16.5 7.7 7.1 1.5 1.3 21.7 19.8 2.1 1.5

Hindalco Accumulate 117 125 22,486 83,212 91,057 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 8.6 6.5 0.7 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 644 - 14,369 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 8.1 7.2 0.8 0.7 10.4 10.6 0.8 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 261 296 4,389 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 8.9 8.2 1.6 1.4 19.0 18.2 2.2 1.7

Monnet Ispat Buy 320 447 2,058 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 15.6 15.3 1.4 1.0


July 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


24/27



Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 52 - 13,376 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 20.3 14.5 1.1 1.1 5.6 7.5 1.1 1.1

NMDC Neutral 185 - 73,248 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 9.7 8.8 2.4 2.0 27.1 24.4 4.0 3.5

SAIL Accumulate 83 92 34,366 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 8.9 7.9 0.8 0.7 9.2 9.6 1.1 1.0

Sesa Goa Accumulate 182 192 15,848 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.3 4.2 0.9 0.8 22.3 19.2 0.3 (0.1)

Sterlite Inds Accumulate 101 115 33,909 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.2 6.0 0.7 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.5 0.4

Tata Steel Buy 399 499 38,781 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 7.4 6.1 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Buy 316 380 60,366 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 5.6 5.8 1.0 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.7 2.0

GAIL Neutral 345 - 43,724 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.7 9.3 1.7 1.5 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

ONGC Buy 277 321 237,329 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 8.9 8.5 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Neutral 720 - 235,899 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 11.7 11.2 1.2 1.1 10.3 9.9 0.6 0.6

Gujarat Gas Neutral 307 - 3,934 2,472 3,267 16.1 11.5 21.2 19.2 14.4 16.0 5.0 4.3 33.4 28.7 1.5 1.1

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 60 91 1,131 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 9.1 6.6 2.2 1.7 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 101 156 2,951 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 8.6 8.0 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.7 0.6

Aventis* Neutral 2,205 - 5,078 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 23.2 21.2 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.8

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 861 953 17,622 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 37.6 47.7 22.9 18.0 5.1 4.1 26.8 27.5 2.8 2.3

Cipla Buy 327 379 26,219 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.8 17.3 3.1 2.7 16.7 16.8 3.4 2.9

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,621 - 27,516 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.4 17.5 4.0 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.4

Dishman Pharma Buy 63 92 511 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 6.9 5.6 0.5 0.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 0.9

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,126 - 18,004 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 28.0 25.8 8.0 7.0 30.8 29.0 5.9 5.1

Indoco Remedies Buy 55 82 504 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.4 6.1 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

Ipca labs Accumulate 392 435 4,950 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 31.9 36.3 12.3 10.8 3.8 3.0 26.2 26.8 1.9 1.5Lupin Accumulate 566 647 25,311 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 20.7 17.5 5.0 4.0 27.0 25.2 2.9 2.3

Orchid Chemicals Buy 108 178 758 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 6.5 4.9 0.6 0.5 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.8

Ranbaxy* Neutral 483 - 20,395 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.5 16.2 5.1 4.1 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

Sun Pharma Neutral 630 - 64,920 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 27.8 27.9 4.7 4.1 17.9 15.6 5.6 4.4

Power

CESC Buy 283 342 3,533 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.3 5.8 0.7 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.2

GIPCL Buy 64 77 973 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.2 5.9 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

NTPC Neutral 153 - 126,197 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 12.3 10.9 1.5 1.4 13.0 13.5 2.4 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 48 78 1,402 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.7 3.7 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.6


July 30, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


25/27



Real Estate

DLF Neutral 195 - 33,051 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.3 14.5 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.8 4.8

HDIL Buy 75 115 3,157 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.3 2.8 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.1 2.4

MLIFE Buy 325 396 1,328 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 10.2 8.8 1.1 1.0 10.4 11.0 2.0 1.7

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 307 - 116,584 80,076 86,613 32.8 33.5 15.5 19.8 19.9 15.5 2.1 1.9 10.5 11.9 2.2 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 80 - 26,478 23,209 26,063 26.2 27.5 3.3 4.9 24.3 16.2 1.9 1.7 7.7 10.3 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 54 - 11,156 22,125 23,734 31.9 32.0 4.5 5.9 12.1 9.2 0.3 0.3 2.5 3.1 2.0 1.6zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,443 1,628 3,066 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 23.8 16.0 4.9 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.6 1.3

Bajaj Electricals Buy 170 246 1,689 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 9.8 7.6 2.1 1.8 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 292 327 370 405 477 15.8 17.2 31.0 41.0 9.4 7.1 2.1 1.7 24.3 25.8 1.1 0.9

Cravatex Buy 589 785 152 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 12.0 8.3 3.6 2.5 29.8 30.7 0.6 0.5

CRISIL Neutral 929 - 6,520 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.1 23.2 12.3 9.8 50.9 46.9 6.2 5.2

Finolex Cables Buy 40 61 605 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.2 3.9 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Force Motors Buy 444 615 579 2,346 2,753 5.8 6.7 44.0 68.0 10.1 6.5 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.2

Goodyear India Buy 307 374 708 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 9.8 7.4 1.9 1.6 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 82 124 1,596 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 6.6 5.8 0.9 0.8 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.7

Greenply Industries Buy 184 309 443 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.2 4.2 1.0 0.8 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

HEG Buy 206 242 825 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.2 6.3 0.9 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.0

Hitachi Buy 103 160 236 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 10.1 6.4 1.2 1.1 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Buy 2,311 2,864 2,043 1,761 2,024 6.7 8.2 95.0 127.0 24.3 18.2 2.9 2.5 14.1 16.3 1.1 0.9

INEOS ABS India Buy 688 804 1,210 900 1,020 9.0 11.1 33.0 45.0 20.9 15.3 2.8 2.5 14.3 17.0 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 237 - 273 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.7 6.2 0.7 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6Jyothy Laboratories Buy 120 145 1,939 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 20.3 16.8 2.9 2.7 15.0 16.6 1.9 1.6

MCX Buy 1,021 1,598 5,205 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 15.0 12.8 4.4 3.7 29.1 28.9 5.6 4.4

MRF Buy 9,669 12,884 4,101 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.5 6.8 1.5 1.2 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 2,909 - 3,244 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.6 24.1 16.0 13.0 57.4 59.5 3.7 2.9

Relaxo Footwears Buy 510 618 612 1,019 1,220 11.2 12.2 44.2 61.8 11.6 8.3 2.7 2.1 26.8 28.6 0.8 0.7

Sintex Industries Buy 57 79 1,551 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 282 392 264 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 26 45 776 7,279 8,290 21.0 21.0 15.0 17.6 1.7 1.5 0.2 0.2 13.7 13.9 0.7 0.6


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zOthers

SpiceJet Buy 25 40 1,221 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 13.0 5.2 30.5 4.4 - - 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 64 108 403 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.1 7.1 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.4

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 343 424 529 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.9 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 326 462 250 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.5 3.5 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 721 - 9,426 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 23.2 16.8 1.8 1.6 8.1 10.3 1.6 1.4

Vesuvius India Accumulate 367 413 745 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.3 10.7 2.2 1.8 18.8 18.6 1.0 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 27, 2012


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July 30, 2012Market Outlook

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