market outlook 31-10-12

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Market OutlookOctober 31, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open flattish with a positive bias following flat

opening in the SGX Nifty and positive opening in the other major Asian indices.

Asian stocks rose, trimming a monthly loss, after South Korean industrial outputincreased and home prices gained in the U.S.

With Hurricane Sandy swirling towards the east coast of the U.S., the major stock

markets in US remained closed on Tuesday as well. NYSE Euronext (NYX), said it

intends to re-open the U.S. markets Wednesday morning if conditions permit. The

European markets gained ground Tuesday after better than expected earnings

reports from companies such as Allianz, Deutsche Bank and BP. However, trading

volume remained thin in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's devastation in the United

States

Indian shares fell sharply on Tuesday after the RBI left interest rates on hold but cut

the cash reserve ratio for banks by 25 basis points, walking a tightrope on

managing faltering growth and high inflation. Rate-sensitive banking and realtystocks bore the brunt of the selling

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,514 / 5,626 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 18,635 18,839 / 5,662 5,726 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

18,514 / 5,626 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

18,310 18,189 / 5,562 5,526 levels.

SENSEX 18,189 18,310 18,514 18,635 18,839

NIFTY 5,526 5,562 5,626 5,662 5,726

News Analysis

RBI delivers on expected lines, reduces CRR by 25bp

RBI raises the provisioning requirement for standard restructured advances to

2.75% from 2% earlier

CCI finds no cartelization among tyre manufacturers

S Kumars US subsidiary, HMX, filed voluntary petition for bankruptcy

2QFY2013 Result Review: MSIL, DRL, Satyam, IDBI Bank, Thermax, IRB Infra,

KEC, PVR, JK Tyres, Jyoti

2QFY2013 Result Preview: Tata Global, Bharat Forge, J&K Bank, TVS Motors.

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (October 27, 2012)

FII 1,549 1,575 (25) 3,197 56,558

MFs 445 480 (36) (659) (10,404)

FII Derivatives (October 29, 2012)

Index Futures 1,641 2,177 (536) 9,232

Stock Futures 1,430 1,537 (107) 27,532

Gainers / Losers

United Spirits 1,144 4.4 Canara Bank 396 (6.1)

Colgate Palmolive 1,285 4.2 Oriental Bank 298 (5.3)

IRB Infra 120 4.0 Indian Bank 168 (5.0)

Dish TV India 74 2.8 IFCI 27 (4.9)

Maruti Suzuki 1,395 2.3 HDIL 93 (4.9)

BSE Sensex (1.1) (205.0) 18,431

Nifty (1.1) (67.7) 5,597

MID CAP (1.0) (66.1) 6,509

SMALL CAP (1.3) (88.9) 6,955

BSE HC (0.1) (7.3) 7,491

BSE PSU (1.7) (123.6) 7,098

BANKEX (2.4) (310.0) 12,871

AUTO (1.4) (141.5) 10,150

METAL (1.5) (154.9) 10,029

OIL & GAS (0.8) (66.6) 8,380

BSE IT 0.5 29.0 5,698

Dow Jones 0.0 3.5 13,107NASDAQ 0.1 1.8 2,988

FTSE 1.0 54.8 5,850

Nikkei (1.0) (87.4) 8,842

Hang Seng (0.4) (82.5) 21,429

Straits Times 0.3 9.1 3,039

Shanghai Com 0.2 3.4 2,062

INFY (1.8) (0.8) $42.7

WIT (1.5) (0.1) $8.0IBN (1.5) (0.6) $39.7

HDB (1.3) (0.5) $37.0

Advances 997 425

Declines 1,801 1,082

Unchanged 120 69

BSE 2,184

NSE 10,439

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RBI delivers on expected lines, reduces CRR by 25bp

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Second Quarter Monetary Policy Review for

FY2013 reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 25bp, from 4.50% to 4.25%, in

line with market expectations. It maintained the key policy rate the repo rate

unchanged at 8.0%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate remains at 7.0% and themarginal standing facility (MSF) rate and bank rate remain unchanged at 9.0%.

The statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) stands at 23.0% of banks net demand and time

liabilities (NDTL).

The RBI anticipates tightening of liquidity conditions owing to higher festival

demand and therefore the reduction in CRR is expected to provide some comfort

on the liquidity front. Trimming the CRR by 25bp is expected to inject around

`17,500cr of primary liquidity in the banking system effective November 3, 2012.

By maintaining the repo rate the RBI has reiterated its stance on inflation

management. WPI inflation for the month of September 2012 surged to 7.8%

mainly owing to the impact of hike in fuel prices initiated by the government earlier

in that month. We believe that the hike in diesel prices and revision in electricity

tariff will adversely impact inflation through its pass-through effect on generalized

inflation.

At the same time, the key change in the tone and stance of this policy is that the

RBI has increased the priority of supporting growth in its decision-making criteria

for the coming quarters rather than focusing purely on inflation. In fact, the RBI

governor has mentioned the possibility of a more accommodative policy stance in

4QFY2013.

Through its policy stance, the RBI has reiterated that managing inflation andinflationary expectations remain amongst its top priority. The policy statement also

raises concerns over growth and indicates that a material improvement in the

current account and fiscal deficit situation will increase headroom for the central

bank to ease its policy stance.

We maintain our view that in the growth-inflation dynamics, the scale is still tilted

in favor of inflation control rather than growth, at least until the next policy review.

Post December 2012, we expect the RBI to ease rates by 25bp 50bp.

RBI raises the provisioning requirement for standard restructuredadvances to 2.75% from 2% earlier

RBI has raised the provisioning requirement for standard restructured advances to

2.75% from 2% earlier. Considering the current experience of most banks of about

25-30% of restructured loans slipping into NPAs and about 50% loss given default,

increase in provisioning requirement was imminent and 75bp increase can be

seen as a primary step by RBI in the direction of ensuring higher provisioning for

standard restructured advances. Earlier its working group had recommended

increasing provisioning on standard restructured advances from 2% to 5% in a

phased manner over a period of two years. Further, RBI can be expected to clarify

regarding upgrading of restructured advances to enable banks to write-backprovisions once the account performs satisfactorily over a stipulated period.

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Higher provisioning on standard restructured advances would impact mid-PSU

banks the most, with an average PBT impact for FY2013E of 4.1%. Within the mid

PSUs, Central Bank and IOB would be worst affected, as their FY2013E PBT would

be lower by 8.8% and 7.7%, respectively owing to their higher outstanding

restructuring book. We await clarity from management on their restructured book,

as the book is not strictly comparable bank-wise, owing to difference in reportingof restructured advance (account-wise/borrower-wise, sanctioned basis/disbursed

basis, total restructured advances /standard restructured advances). Meanwhile,

least affected amongst PSU banks would be SBI and BOB, while there would be

negligible impact on new private banks and moderate impact in case of old

private banks.

CCI finds no cartelization among tyre manufacturers

As per media report, Competition Commission of India (CCI) has found no

evidence of cartelization in the tyre industry and has therefore decided not to

impose any penalty on manufacturers. The manufacturers who were being probed

by the CCO included Apollo Tyres, MRF, JK Tyre & Industries, Ceat and Birla Tyres.

According to the CCI, available evidence did not indicate that tyre

manufacturers/ATMA acted together and limited and controlled the production

and price of tyres in the domestic markets. We see this as a positive development

for the tyre industry as the outcome of the CCI inquiry was an overhang on the

stock prices. The favorable outcome provides major relief to tyre manufacturers in

our view.

S Kumars US subsidiary, HMX, filed voluntary petition for

bankruptcy

SKNL ventured overseas through the acquisition of Hart Schaffner Marx (HMX) in

the US in May 2009 for a transaction value of ~ $119mn. HMX has reported sales

of`1,091cr and a net loss of`0.5cr for CY2011 and till June 2012, the company

has registered sales of`288cr with a loss of`10cr. At the time of acquisition, HMX

had received a US$95mn credit line in August 2009 which was reduced to about

two-thirds by July this year.

The company providing the DIP (debtor-in-possession), Salus Capital, has agreed

to fund upto US$75mn only if SKNL infuses $15 million. However, looking at the

sluggish market in U.S and uncertain future of HMX business coupled with liquidity

crunch, SKNL is not willing to infuse any additional capital in HMX and have

decided the option of voluntary petition under Chapter 11. Details on the same

will be available after November 8, 2012.

HMX is the largest mens formal wear clothing company in the U.S. and a leading

American producer of luxury apparel. The company is the largest manufacturer

and marketer of mens suits and coats in the U.S. The companys brands include

HMX, Hickey Freeman, Misook, Coppley, Austin Reed, Claiborne and Pierre Cardin,

among others.

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Result Review

(CMP:`1,395/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported marginally lower-than-expected results for

2QFY2013 led by lower-than-expected growth in top-line and operating

margin pressures on account of higher raw-material and employee expenses.

However the results were largely in-line with the street estimates.

For 2QFY2013, net sales grew by a healthy 8.2% yoy (down 22.9% qoq) to

`8,305cr which was 4.1% lower than our estimates, driven by 18.9% yoy

increase in net average realization. Net average realization improved on

account of price increases and relatively better product-mix (due toSwift, Dzire

and Ertiga in volume-mix). Volumes during the quarter witnessed a decline of

8.7% yoy (22.1% qoq) led by labor strike at the Manesar plant and reduced

demand for petrol cars. On the operating front, margins declined 117bp

sequentially to 6.1% primarily due to increase in raw-material and employee

expenses and lower operating leverage benefits. The raw-material cost as a

percentage of sales jumped 175bp qoq due to higher discounts and lagged

impact of indirect imports. Further, employee expense as a percentage of sales

also increased 60bp qoq due to wage settlements and one-time expense

related to the Manesar plant. On the positive side, other expenditure as a

percentage of sales declined 120bp qoq due to favorable foreign exchange

movement which led to lower royalty outgo (down 80bp qoq to 5.4%). As a

result, operating profit declined 35.3% yoy to`509cr. On a yoy basis though,

operating profit grew by 15.4% largely due to 40bp improvement in operating

margins. However, net profit declined 5.4% yoy (46.3% qoq) to `227cr asdepreciation and interest expense increased 248% and 30% yoy respectively.

At the CMP of`1,395, the stock is trading at 15x FY2014E earnings.

FY2013E 41,789 7.3 1,867 64.6 11.7 21.6 2.4 10.9 0.7

FY2014E 49,983 8.6 2,695 93.2 15.0 15.0 2.1 7.3 0.6

DRL (CMP-`1723, Target-`1859, Upside-8%,)

: Dr Reddys Labs (DRL) posted results in line with expectations. On

the top-line the DRL posted a growth of 27% to end the period at`2,880cr, in line

with the expectations of`2,800cr majorly driven by the US market, which grew by

47% yoy. The companys other key regions Indian and Russian formulation

businesses have grown by 12% yoy and 14% yoy respectively. In terms of the

pharmaceuticals services and active ingredients (PSAI) segment, it grew by 33%

yoy during the quarter. The companys the OPM came in at 22.5%, V/s 21.2%

during the last corresponding quarter. On the net profit front, the company posted

an adjusted net profit of`493.7cr, i.e a growth of 76.8% over the corresponding

period of the previous year.`

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FY2013E 10,696 20.7 1,420 83.7 22.4 20.6 4.0 14.5 3.0

FY2014E 11,662 21.0 1,576 92.9 20.8 18.5 3.4 12.5 2.6

Mahindra Satyam (CMP:`108 / TP: Under review)

Mahindra Satyam reported broadly in-line set of results for 2QFY2013, with robust

operational performance. Revenue came in at US$354mn, up 3.5% qoq (better

than many of its peers), mainly led by 2.8% qoq volume growth. In INR terms,

revenue came in at `1,938cr, up 3.1% qoq. The companys operational

performance was ahead of our expectations, with EBITDA margin remaining

almost flat qoq at 21.5% despite having negative impact of wage hikes given

during the quarter (6% to offshore employees and 1.5% to onsite employees). This

was due to reduction in sub contracting, visa and travel costs. PAT came in at

`278cr, impacted by forex loss of `86cr as against gain of `66cr in 1QFY2013.The companys growth was led by manufacturing and BFSI vertical. The company

continued to deliver operational exuberance with healthy volume growth.

FY2013E 7,628 19.9 1,145 9.7 27.7 11.1 3.1 6.3 1.2

FY2014E 8,062 18.4 1,178 10.0 22.2 10.7 2.4 5.9 1.1

IDBI Bank posted net profit decline of 6.3% yoy to `484cr due to 54.3% yoy

increase in provisioning expenses, which was directionally in-line with our

estimates. The performance on the operating front was healthy, with operating

income and operating profit growing by 20.7% and 17.2% yoy. On the asset

quality front, on an absolute basis, Gross NPA increased by 6.4% qoq, while Net

NPA declined by 2.4% qoq. Gross and Net NPA ratios were higher by 21bps and

3bps during the quarter to 3.45% and 2.04%, respectively.

At CMP, the stock trades at 0.6x FY2014 ABV. We value the stock at 0.7x FY2014

ABV and

FY2013E 2,593 3.2 769 368.4 8.5 1.2 12.8 10.5 1.3

FY2014E 3,009 3.2 898 409.2 10.0 1.1 13.5 9.0 1.1

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Thermax (CMP:`568/TP: -/Upside: - %)

For 2QFY2013, Thermax reported a decline of 8.5% yoy in its top-line to`1,192cr,

as weak order inflows continue to keep the companys revenue under strict check.

The companys order backlog stood at `4,412cr, a 13% decline yoy. The

companys EBITDA margin remained flat at 9.4%. Falling revenue and flat margin

resulted in a y-o-y fall of 10.3% in the companys PAT to `91cr.

FY2013E 5,514 8.9 320 26.9 18.4 21.1 3.7 12.8 1.0

FY2014E 5,559 10.2 361 30.3 18.2 18.8 3.2 10.6 0.9

IRB Infra (CMP:`120 / TP:`164 / Upside: 37%)

For 2QFY2013, IRB Infrastructure (IRB) reported a decent set of numbers. The

companys revenue came slightly below our expectation but owing to better-than-

expected performance at the EBITDAM level, earnings were higher than estimates.

IRBs top line grew by 14.9% yoy to `845cr (below our estimate of`900cr) mainly

due to healthy execution pace for under-construction projects.The E&C segments

revenue grew by 17.8% yoy to `622cr and the BOT segment witnessed 7.7% yoy

growth to`257cr. On the EBITDAM front, IRBs margin came in at 45% (+140bp

yoy basis), higher than our estimate of 43.3%. Stable input prices led to EBITDAM

of 27.3% (excluding other income) for E&C segment. Interest cost grew by 5.0%

yoy to`148cr. IRB net profit increase by 10.0% yoy to `121cr, above our estimate

of`106cr on account of better-than-expected performance at EBITDAM level.

IRB is looking at both organic and inorganic options for growth with a threshold of

18% equity IRR and intends to allot 20% of consolidated cash flow post debt repayment

towards acquisitions. IRB has a healthy order book of`7,466cr (2.9x FY2013E E&C

revenue, excluding O&M orders), which lends revenue visibility. Although a

slowdown in order awarding by NHAI in road sector has been witnessed in

1HFY2013, IRB expects ordering activity to improve going ahead. As far as road

EPC contracts are concerned IRB will decide whether to bid after the draft

agreement is out.

FY2013E 3,843 43.5 592 17.8 19.2 6.7 3.2 3,843 43.5

FY2014E 4,212 43.9 629 18.9 17.8 6.3 3.4 4,212 43.9

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KEC International (CMP:`69/TP:`78/ Upside:13%)

For 2QFY2013, KEC International (KEC) reported a strong growth of 32% yoy to

`1,668cr, beating our expectations on the back of strong execution of its robust

order book. However on the EBITDA front, the companys margin declined by

210bp yoy to 5.1% due to aggressive pricing in power, railway and cable business.Consequently, PAT declined of 22%yoy to`17cr

FY2013E 6,858 7.1 213 8.3 25.1 6.9 1.2 5.3 0.4

FY2014E 7,431 7.4 251 9.8 24.0 5.8 1.0 4.9 0.4

PVR (CMP:`227/TP: -/Upside: - %)

For 2QFY2013, PVR reported robust 37% yoy growth in top-line to `189cr, onback of good performance in movie exhibition business. The companys EBITDA

margin declined by 126bp yoy to 18.9% primarily on account of 152bp yoy

increase in film distribution share. Consequently, Net profit grew by 13% yoy to

`16cr.

FY2013E 625 17.4 40 13.3 13.2 17.1 2.1 7.7 1.2

FY2014E 732 17.1 47 15.6 13.8 14.5 1.9 6.5 1.0

(CMP:`127/ TP:`135/ Upside: 6%)

JK Tyre & Industries (JKI) reported sluggish results for 2QFY2013 as operating

margins witnessed a decline of 70bp despite 220bp reduction in raw-material

expenses. For 2QFY2013, adjusted net profit came in at `25cr as against a loss of

`11cr in 2QFY2012 driven by sharp improvement in operating margins (594bp

margin expansion) on a yoy basis led by 710bp decline in raw-material expenses.

Top-line registered a modest growth of 6.1% yoy (down 7.1% qoq) growth to

`1,322cr as the demand for tyres in the replacement segment remained sluggish.

Also demand from the OEMs remained muted as MHCV segment witnessed adecline of 12.9% yoy in 1HFY2013. Operating margins registered a significant

improvement as it expanded by 594bp yoy to 8.1% driven mainly on account of

improvement in raw-material costs (710bp yoy) as natural rubber prices witnessed

a decline of ~15% yoy during the quarter. On a sequential basis though, margins

declined 70bp as benefits of lower raw-material expenses were mitigated by

higher employee and other expenses.

Going ahead we believe that the company will report improvement in its

performance on stable raw-material prices and likely pick-up in demand in the

replacement segment. At the CMP of `127, the stock is trading at 3.3x FY2014E

earningsWe shall revise our estimates and release a detailed result update soon.

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Jyoti Structures (CMP:`46/TP: Under review)

Jyoti Structures announced its 2QFY2013 results. The company reported 6% yoy

decline in its top-line to `593cr. The companys operating margin contracted by

110bp to 9.7% primarily on account of 120bp yoy increase in other expenses.

Consequently, the companys PAT declined by 46% yoy to`

12cr.

FY2013E 2,622 10.7 79 9.6 10.8 4.9 0.5 3.5 0.4

FY2014E 2,744 10.5 100 12.2 12.3 3.8 0.5 3.4 0.3

Result Preview

Tata Global (CMP:`151/TP:/Upside:-)

Tata Global is expected to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the

topline to grow by 11.8% yoy to`1,802cr. OPM is expected to expand by 396bp

yoy to 10.6%. Bottomline is expected to grow by 28.7% yoy to `108cr.

FY2013E 7,207 9.7 409 6.6 8.6 22.5 1.9 12.3 1.2

FY2014E 7,927 10.0 482 7.8 9.5 19.3 1.8 10.7 1.1

Bharat Forge(CMP:`272/ TP:`351/ Upside: 29%)

Bharat Forge is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. On a standalone

basis, we expect Bharat Forge (BHFC) to report flat revenue growth of 1.9% yoy to

`927cr, driven by ~10% yoy growth in net average realization. The company is

expected to benefit from higher share of machining component. We expect the

BHFCs volumes to decline by ~7% yoy following a 12.9% yoy decline in MHCV

volumes. Nonetheless, the operating margin is expected to improve by 117bp yoy

to 24.8% led by stable commodity prices and a superior product-mix. However, we

expect the bottom-line to decline by 3.1% yoy to `103cr primarily due to an

increase in interest expense. At `272, the stock is trading at 10.9x its FY2014E

earnings.

FY2013E 7,004 16.2 473.3 20.3 19.9 13.4 2.5 6.7 1.1

FY2014E 7,985 16.4 583.3 25.1 20.9 10.9 2.1 5.6 0.9

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(CMP:`1,145/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

J&K Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to

report a robust Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 24.6% yoy to `541cr. Non-

interest income is expected to grow at a healthy pace of 19.6% yoy to `85cr.

Operating expenses of the bank are expected to be higher by 19.3% yoy to`230cr. Net Profit is expected to grow by 17.0% yoy to`234cr, despite 126.9% yoy

increase in provisioning expenses (on a low base), due to strong growth of 26.7%

on the operating profit front. The stock has surged recently and it trades at a

valuation of 1.0x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 2,600 3.6 932 192.3 991.1 1.5 21.0 6.0 1.2

FY2014E 2,850 3.5 911 188.01,134.9 1.3 17.7 6.1 1.0

TVS Motor (CMP:`40/ TP:`49/ Upside: 22%)

TVS Motor is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the

company to report ~13.7% yoy (5.5% qoq) decline in its top-line to `1,719cr

largely due to 19.6% yoy (6.4% qoq) decline in volumes during the quarter. The

poor volume performance was on account of extremely weak motorcycle (down

28.4% yoy) and scooter sales (down 24.4% yoy) amidst rising competition and

moderating demand environment. We expect the EBITDA margin to contract

104bp yoy (flat qoq) to 5.9% led by inferior product-mix and lower operating

leverage benefits. As a result, bottom line is expected to decline 42.8% yoy (14.4%

qoq) to`44cr. At the CMP of`40, the stock is trading at 7.4x FY2014E earnings.

FY2013E 7,611 7.9 224 4.7 17.9 8.5 1.4 3.6 0.2

FY2014E 8,443 7.9 257 5.4 18.1 7.4 1.3 3.0 0.2

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net sales 961 882 9 916 5

EBITDA 246 215 14 235 5

EBITDA margin (%) 25.6 24.4 25.7

Net profit 108 106 2 105 3

Net profit 256 98 161 228 12

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Net sales 1,789 1,831 (2) 1,399 28

EBITDA 1,170 1,451 (19) 904 29

EBITDA margin (%) 65.4 79.3 64.6

Net profit 840 966 (13) 670 25

Net profit 935 709 32 870 7

Net sales 1,810 1,612 12 1,715 6

EBITDA 160 135 19 181 (12)

EBITDA margin (%) 8.8 8.4 10.6

Net profit 100 87 15 92 9

Net sales 2,388 2,096 14 2,206 8

EBITDA 233 200 17 212 10


Net profit 180 148 22 145 24

Net sales 3,034 2,706 12 2,811 8

EBITDA 202 226 (11) 167 21


Net profit 106 117 (9) 86 24

Net profit 860 623 38 877 (2)

Net profit 543 353 54 512 6

Net sales 10,681 9,007 19 10,620 1

EBITDA 1,956 1,652 18 2,143 (9)

EBITDA margin (%) 18.3 18.3 20.2

Net profit 1,521 1,300 17 1,590 (4)

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Economic and Political News

Govt to launch pilots for direct food subsidy transfer

Exclusive teams to verify digitisation progress in 4 metros

LPG consumers can now fill KYC form till Nov 15

Corporate News

BS Limited bags orders worth`117cr

Punj Lloyd bags`664cr residential projects

Country Club opens fitness centre in Jaipur

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Date Company

October 31, 2012 J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, NHPC, Titan Inds., LIC Housing Fin., Bharat Forge, Tata Global, Aventis, TVS Motor

November 01, 2012 GlaxoSmith Con, Hexaware, BGR Energy , Jyothy Laboratories

November 02, 2012 Wipro, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, Crompton Greaves, Marico, Apollo Tyres, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma

November 03, 2012 Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., Godawari Ispat

November 04, 2012

November 05, 2012Reliance Power, Cipla, Tech Mahindra, Allahabad Bank, Gujarat Gas, Vijaya Bank, Madras Cements, India Cements,Amara Raja Batteries, CEAT, ITD Cementation, Vesuvius India

November 06, 2012Hindalco, Tata Power Co., Bosch India, Canara Bank, ABB, Reliance Infra., Reliance Capital, Motherson Sumi, AndhraBank, Central Bank, Britannia, Tata Comm, ITNL, Dena Bank, GIPCL, Cravatex

November 07, 2012 Bharti Airtel, NMDC, Tata Motors, Cadila Healthcare, Indraprasth Gas, GSPL, UCO Bank

November 08, 2012ONGC, Sun Pharma, SAIL, Ranbaxy, Cummins India, Ashok Leyland, Areva, Monnet Ispat, Page Industries, PTC India,Nagarjuna Const., Finolex Cables, Goodyear

November 09, 2012Coal India, IOC, Jindal Steel, Tata Steel, BPCL, Power Fin.Corpn., GSK Pharma, United Spirits, HPCL, Essar Oil, TataChemicals, Corporation Bank, MOIL, Aurobindo Pharma, CESC, Anant Raj, Orchid Chemicals, Consolidated Co,Subros

November 10, 2012

November 11, 2012

November 12, 2012 Nestle, GMR Infra.

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

November 01, 2012 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Oct 49.80 50.20

3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Oct 48.40 48.00

6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Oct 27 369.00 370.00

7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Oct 70.30 73.00

November 02, 2012 2:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Oct F 45.70 45.70

6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Oct 114.00 125.00

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Oct 7.80 7.90

November 06, 2012 2:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Oct F 49.30 --

3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Sep (1.20) --

November 08, 2012 5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Nov 8 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Nov 8 0.75 --

November 09, 2012 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Oct 1.90 2.00

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Oct 9.20 --November 10, 2012 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Oct 9.90 8.90

November 12, 2012 11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Sep 2.70 --

November 13, 2012 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Oct 2.20 --

November 14, 2012 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Oct 7.81 --

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Oct (4.00) --

7:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Oct 1.10 --



October 31, 2012

Market Outlook

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

13/21

Market StrategyOctober 31, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

3. 5

5. 7

9 .0

7. 5

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

2. 5

(5.0)

6. 0

2 .7

1. 0

4. 3

(2.8)

(1.3)

2. 5

(1.8)

(0.2)

2. 7

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 6 7. 5 7. 67. 8

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Exp orts yo y growth Im ports yo y growth( %)


Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

8.00

7.00

4.50

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

14/21

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 141 - 2,742 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 20.1 17.4 4.3 3.6 22.6 22.5 1.9 1.7

United Phosphorus Buy 116 170 5,352 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.7 6.8 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 220 - 3,756 2,844 3,275 15.4 15.6 15.9 18.8 13.8 11.7 3.6 2.8 28.9 26.9 1.3 1.1

Apollo Tyres Buy 87 99 4,385 13,412 15,041 11.3 11.0 12.1 14.2 7.2 6.2 1.3 1.1 19.6 19.2 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 23 30 6,120 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 10.6 8.4 1.9 1.7 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle# Accumulate 377 430 570 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.2 8.8 2.0 1.7 21.2 21.3 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,797 - 52,004 21,121 23,642 18.4 18.5 108.7 122.6 16.5 14.7 6.9 5.5 46.2 41.6 2.1 1.8

Bharat Forge Buy 273 351 6,360 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 13.4 10.9 2.5 2.1 20.0 20.9 1.1 1.0

Bosch India* Neutral 8,890 - 27,914 8,793 10,294 17.4 18.5 348.3 435.8 25.5 20.4 5.0 4.1 19.4 20.1 2.8 2.4

CEAT Buy 122 164 417 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.5 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 140 155 11,896 6,229 7,200 14.8 15.8 7.2 9.0 19.5 15.6 3.4 2.9 18.5 19.9 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,707 - 2,836 1,489 1,750 16.5 17.5 103.3 126.9 16.5 13.4 3.2 2.7 21.3 21.6 1.8 1.4

Hero Motocorp Neutral 1,872 - 37,381 24,743 27,996 14.8 15.2 118.2 130.4 15.8 14.4 6.8 5.4 48.3 41.9 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Accumulate 127 135 521 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.9 3.3 0.6 0.5 13.4 17.2 0.4 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 874 986 53,650 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.7 62.8 16.0 13.9 3.6 3.0 24.3 23.4 1.1 0.9

Maruti Neutral 1,395 - 40,290 41,796 49,350 7.6 8.6 66.6 92.6 20.9 15.1 2.4 2.1 12.0 14.8 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Neutral 153 - 8,986 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 19.0 14.5 4.0 3.3 22.9 24.7 0.5 0.5

Subros Buy 28 34 169 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.2 5.0 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 248 316 66,015 195,096 219,428 12.8 13.0 39.0 44.9 6.4 5.5 1.8 1.4 32.6 28.8 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 40 49 1,896 7,611 8,443 7.9 7.9 4.7 5.4 8.5 7.4 1.4 1.3 17.9 18.1 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 736 593 15,598 8,760 10,023 6.2 8.7 14.5 24.7 50.9 29.8 5.6 4.9 11.6 17.6 1.8 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 263 - 1,897 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 10.7 8.9 1.6 1.4 15.3 16.7 1.0 1.0

BHEL Neutral 228 - 55,830 47,801 43,757 19.0 18.8 25.3 22.8 9.0 10.0 2.8 2.3 34.3 25.3 1.1 1.2

Blue Star Buy 197 249 1,771 2,763 2,948 3.2 5.6 3.5 9.1 57.0 21.6 4.3 3.7 7.7 18.4 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 121 141 7,772 12,691 14,126 7.4 8.9 7.0 9.7 17.4 12.5 2.0 1.8 11.9 15.0 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Accumulate 46 54 378 2,622 2,744 10.7 10.5 9.6 12.2 4.8 3.8 0.5 0.5 10.8 12.3 0.4 0.3

KEC International Neutral 69 - 1,769 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 8.3 7.0 1.4 1.2 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Neutral 2,009 - 2,263 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.0 12.1 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 568 - 6,768 5,514 5,559 8.9 10.2 26.9 30.3 21.2 18.8 3.7 3.2 18.4 18.2 1.2 1.1


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 31, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

15/21



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,378 - 25,870 11,085 12,415 21.6 21.4 79.4 83.1 17.4 16.6 3.4 3.0 20.1 19.2 2.1 1.8

Ambuja Cements Neutral 203 - 31,309 10,272 11,884 26.4 26.1 11.5 12.9 17.8 15.8 3.9 3.5 20.8 21.1 2.7 2.2

India Cements Neutral 95 - 2,903 4,354 4,929 18.6 18.7 9.8 12.3 9.6 7.7 0.8 0.8 8.6 10.2 1.1 1.0

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 122 143 1,497 2,082 2,423 22.9 23.1 20.8 22.5 5.9 5.5 1.0 0.9 18.4 17.4 0.8 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 198 - 4,717 3,608 3,928 27.6 27.0 15.7 18.3 12.6 10.9 2.0 1.7 16.9 17.0 1.9 1.6

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,175 - 14,544 5,701 6,210 29.7 28.1 240.7 260.7 17.3 16.0 4.2 3.4 27.1 23.6 2.0 1.6

UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,010 - 55,101 21,368 24,043 22.5 23.5 103.5 121.4 19.4 16.6 3.6 3.1 20.2 20.1 2.6 2.4Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 222 304 1,169 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 8.2 7.0 1.0 0.9 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

Consolidated Co Neutral 13 - 237 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 8.6 4.8 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

Hind. Const. Neutral 17 - 1,022 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (7.5) (17.5) 0.9 1.1 (11.4) (5.6) 1.2 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 120 166 3,983 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.7 16.9 7.6 7.1 1.2 1.0 16.6 15.8 2.6 2.4

ITNL Buy 183 232 3,552 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 30.3 7.5 6.0 1.1 1.0 16.0 16.2 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Buy 40 51 1,224 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 15.8 8.7 0.5 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Neutral 86 - 18,340 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.0 4.8 21.5 18.1 1.7 1.6 8.5 9.3 2.6 2.3

Larsen & Toubro Neutral 1,638 - 100,536 60,556 69,167 11.2 11.6 73.8 85.5 22.2 19.2 3.5 3.1 13.5 14.1 1.9 1.7

Madhucon Proj Buy 32 56 238 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.0 6.9 0.4 0.3 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 42 - 1,076 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 13.8 12.0 0.4 0.4 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 77 - 538 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.5 5.3 0.3 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

Punj Lloyd Neutral 49 - 1,617 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 28.7 15.8 0.6 0.5 1.9 3.4 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 143 182 2,164 2,506 3,147 10.3 10.7 7.5 10.4 19.1 13.8 2.4 2.1 13.5 16.0 1.0 0.9

Simplex Infra Buy 201 265 992 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.4 29.4 8.6 6.8 0.8 0.7 9.2 10.6 0.5 0.5

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Neutral 131 - 6,570 6,944 7,884 3.0 3.1 35.5 37.0 3.7 3.6 0.6 0.5 17.2 15.7 - -

Andhra Bank Reduce 103 97 5,786 4,929 5,633 3.1 3.1 23.7 24.5 4.4 4.2 0.7 0.6 16.6 15.3 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,185 1,476 50,543 15,686 18,687 3.1 3.2 116.8 138.0 10.1 8.6 1.9 1.6 20.0 20.2 - -

Bank of Baroda Accumulate 719 860 28,156 15,436 18,208 2.5 2.6 111.8 137.4 6.4 5.2 1.0 0.8 15.8 17.0 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 273 319 15,670 12,573 14,971 2.3 2.4 58.2 68.0 4.7 4.0 0.8 0.7 15.9 16.3 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 53 - 3,125 3,563 3,876 3.1 3.1 9.7 12.0 5.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 14.6 16.1 - -

Canara Bank Accumulate 396 449 17,530 10,905 12,783 2.1 2.2 74.9 85.1 5.3 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.1 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 69 - 5,094 7,095 8,102 2.5 2.7 15.6 21.0 4.4 3.3 0.7 0.7 12.2 14.7 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 31, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

16/21



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 397 447 5,874 4,886 5,669 2.1 2.2 101.3 101.8 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.1 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 105 - 3,690 3,147 3,495 2.8 2.9 24.8 24.4 4.3 4.3 0.7 0.6 18.7 15.9 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 480 - 8,201 2,617 2,968 3.3 3.2 45.9 51.7 10.5 9.3 1.3 1.2 13.1 13.3 - -

HDFC Neutral 750 - 115,447 7,336 8,802 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 23.8 19.8 4.8 4.2 34.8 32.1 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 634 - 149,720 21,696 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 36.0 22.1 17.6 4.2 3.6 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,045 1,270 120,123 22,271 26,690 3.0 3.0 69.2 83.1 15.1 12.6 1.8 1.7 14.2 15.7 - -

IDBI Bank Accumulate 92 108 11,774 7,761 9,484 1.9 2.2 17.1 22.9 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.6 11.9 14.4 - -Indian Bank Neutral 168 - 7,222 5,874 6,551 3.2 3.2 40.6 41.8 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.6 18.1 16.4 - -

IOB Neutral 71 - 5,691 7,050 8,313 2.3 2.5 12.9 20.4 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.5 9.2 13.3 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,120 - 5,428 2,600 2,850 3.6 3.5 192.3 188.0 5.8 6.0 1.1 1.0 21.0 17.7 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 242 301 12,228 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 11.5 8.5 1.9 1.6 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 298 - 8,702 6,277 7,090 2.6 2.7 60.5 65.1 4.9 4.6 0.7 0.6 15.0 14.4 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 730 843 24,752 19,652 22,601 3.2 3.3 135.0 164.3 5.4 4.4 0.9 0.8 16.3 17.3 - -

South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,032 1,556 1,750 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.9 6.5 5.9 1.1 1.0 19.1 16.9 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,074 2,353 139,185 63,806 73,435 3.5 3.6 225.7 258.4 9.2 8.0 1.6 1.3 17.7 17.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Neutral 116 - 6,965 6,756 7,783 3.0 3.0 26.3 27.1 4.4 4.3 0.8 0.7 18.3 16.6 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 72 - 4,786 5,411 6,124 2.4 2.5 17.0 16.5 4.2 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.7 14.4 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 193 226 10,617 9,924 11,647 2.8 2.9 38.6 46.3 5.0 4.2 0.8 0.7 15.4 16.3 - -

United Bank Buy 63 78 2,291 3,572 4,041 2.8 2.9 17.2 22.1 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.5 14.2 16.2 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 53 - 2,626 2,490 2,881 2.1 2.2 9.2 11.4 5.8 4.7 0.7 0.6 11.5 13.0 - -

Yes Bank Buy 408 492 14,515 3,270 4,240 2.8 3.0 34.5 42.2 11.8 9.7 2.5 2.1 23.5 23.5 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,884 - 37,251 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 32.1 26.8 10.8 8.5 37.4 35.3 3.3 2.8Britannia Buy 484 584 5,784 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 23.4 19.1 9.2 7.1 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,285 - 17,479 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.2 35.7 42.3 36.0 30.4 33.3 24.7 101.0 93.5 5.4 4.7

Dabur India Neutral 125 - 21,769 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 28.0 24.1 11.5 9.1 43.2 41.5 3.7 3.2

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,997 - 12,604 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 28.7 24.2 8.9 7.2 34.4 32.8 3.8 3.2

Godrej Consumer Neutral 726 - 24,692 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 33.2 27.4 7.4 6.1 25.5 25.4 4.1 3.4

HUL Neutral 550 - 119,003 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 38.6 33.4 23.0 17.7 70.9 59.8 4.5 3.9

ITC Neutral 284 - 223,234 29,409 34,060 35.7 36.1 9.3 10.9 30.5 26.0 10.1 8.4 35.8 35.3 7.3 6.3


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 31, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

17/21



FMCG

Marico Neutral 205 - 13,230 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.8 8.5 30.3 24.3 8.3 6.4 31.4 29.7 2.8 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 4,673 - 45,056 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 40.7 33.4 24.6 17.1 71.2 60.3 5.3 4.4

Tata Global Neutral 151 - 9,319 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 22.8 19.3 2.3 2.2 8.6 9.5 1.2 1.1

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 606 648 42,072 24,214 26,772 19.5 18.1 44.0 48.0 13.8 12.6 3.3 2.7 24.0 22.0 1.7 1.5

Hexaware* Buy 109 140 3,240 1,966 2,161 22.5 21.4 11.6 12.2 9.4 9.0 2.5 2.1 26.8 23.9 1.4 1.2

Infosys Accumulate 2,357 2,573 135,367 39,174 41,580 29.5 30.4 159.2 171.6 14.8 13.7 3.6 3.2 24.1 23.1 2.8 2.6Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 190 202 2,123 1,886 2,032 17.9 17.3 18.7 20.2 10.2 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.9 14.0 0.8 0.6

KPIT Cummins Buy 123 142 2,188 2,191 2,364 16.1 16.5 11.3 13.0 10.9 9.5 2.4 1.9 21.8 20.0 0.9 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 108 110 12,657 7,628 8,062 19.9 18.4 9.7 10.0 11.1 10.8 3.1 2.4 27.7 22.2 1.2 1.1

Mindtree Accumulate 659 747 2,702 2,324 2,437 20.0 17.7 73.3 74.7 9.0 8.8 2.1 1.7 24.1 19.7 0.9 0.8

Mphasis& Neutral 383 - 8,051 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.4 10.3 1.5 1.3 14.3 12.6 0.9 0.8

NIIT Neutral 33 - 551 1,034 1,146 9.9 11.0 5.2 6.4 6.4 5.2 0.8 0.8 12.8 14.3 0.4 0.3

Persistent Neutral 469 - 1,875 1,261 1,352 26.4 24.7 48.2 54.0 9.7 8.7 1.9 1.6 19.0 17.9 1.2 1.0

TCS Accumulate 1,309 1,410 256,239 61,053 67,313 28.7 29.1 69.7 76.2 18.8 17.2 6.1 5.0 32.6 29.1 4.0 3.6

Tech Mahindra Buy 934 1,046 11,921 6,603 7,196 18.2 17.1 92.7 99.6 10.1 9.4 2.4 1.9 23.6 20.5 1.8 1.6

Wipro Buy 347 421 85,548 43,800 48,332 19.5 19.3 25.6 28.1 13.6 12.4 2.6 2.2 18.9 17.9 1.6 1.3

Media

D B Corp Buy 205 259 3,767 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 17.7 14.2 3.4 3.0 21.0 22.3 2.3 2.0

HT Media Accumulate 102 113 2,397 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 13.9 12.4 1.5 1.3 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Accumulate 100 112 3,160 1,488 1,664 22.7 22.8 6.2 7.1 16.1 14.0 3.9 3.5 25.2 26.3 2.3 2.0

PVR Neutral 227 - 589 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 17.0 14.5 1.9 1.6 13.2 13.8 1.3 1.1

Sun TV Network Neutral 319 - 12,554 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 17.2 14.9 4.3 3.8 27.1 27.5 5.8 5.0Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 496 - 10,530 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 10.1 8.1 1.3 1.1 14.1 15.2 2.9 2.4

Coal India Accumulate 347 385 218,894 69,808 75,550 27.4 27.4 26.0 28.3 13.3 12.3 3.9 3.1 32.5 28.1 2.3 1.9

Electrosteel Castings Buy 25 29 853 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 0.8 2.0 29.5 12.2 0.5 0.2 1.7 4.1 0.6 0.5

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 130 145 54,929 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 15.0 16.4 8.7 7.9 1.7 1.4 21.4 19.7 2.6 2.0

Hindalco Neutral 111 - 21,233 84,855 92,446 8.7 9.3 13.2 16.2 8.4 6.8 0.6 0.6 7.8 8.9 0.6 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 735 - 16,396 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 9.2 8.2 0.9 0.8 10.4 10.6 0.9 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 244 271 4,093 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 9.9 9.3 1.5 1.4 16.0 15.5 2.2 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 296 379 1,903 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.4 5.2 0.7 0.6 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 31, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

18/21



Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 47 44 12,061 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 23.6 14.7 1.0 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.3 1.2

NMDC Buy 180 214 71,167 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 8.5 7.7 2.3 1.9 29.6 26.5 3.8 3.1

SAIL Neutral 79 - 32,755 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.3 6.8 0.8 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Accumulate 167 183 14,510 4,551 6,640 32.8 34.4 33.7 39.3 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 18.3 18.3 3.9 2.6

Sterlite Inds Accumulate 98 110 32,917 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 5.8 5.5 0.7 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 393 481 38,159 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 8.1 6.2 0.8 0.7 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Accumulate 132 148 474 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.5 15.1 14.8 0.7 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 50 73 668 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 116 161 367 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.3 43.2 3.5 2.7 0.4 0.4 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Accumulate 335 382 63,998 17,567 17,643 76.2 72.3 61.1 56.8 5.5 5.9 1.1 1.0 22.0 17.5 2.8 2.4

GAIL Neutral 355 - 45,012 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.0 9.7 1.8 1.6 18.9 17.0 0.6 0.5

ONGC Accumulate 273 312 233,565 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 8.9 8.5 1.5 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.3 1.2

Reliance Industries Neutral 803 - 262,979 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 60.0 63.3 13.4 12.7 1.3 1.2 11.1 10.6 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 299 - 3,831 3,228 3,819 11.5 11.3 19.2 22.1 15.6 13.5 4.1 3.7 28.7 29.0 1.1 0.9

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 248 - 3,473 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 10.0 8.9 2.3 1.9 25.5 23.6 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Accumulate 166 183 12,458 30,077 33,570 6.6 6.3 15.1 15.3 11.0 10.9 2.8 2.3 28.4 23.1 0.5 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 75 - 4,215 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 8.8 10.1 1.5 1.4 18.1 14.0 5.0 5.5

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 67 91 1,269 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.2 7.4 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.9 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Neutral 161 - 4,694 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 13.7 12.8 1.7 1.5 17.9 16.4 1.4 1.2

Aventis* Neutral 2,196 - 5,056 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 23.1 21.0 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.8Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 859 953 17,588 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 23.9 18.6 5.6 4.5 25.8 26.8 3.1 2.5

Cipla Accumulate 355 399 28,468 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 19.3 17.7 3.2 2.8 17.8 16.6 3.3 2.8

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,723 1,859 29,250 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.6 18.6 4.2 3.6 22.4 20.8 2.9 2.6

Dishman Pharma Neutral 95 - 765 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.3 8.4 0.8 0.7 7.7 8.5 1.2 1.0

GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,998 - 16,925 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.3 24.3 7.6 6.8 20.1 26.3 5.6 4.8

Indoco Remedies Buy 63 92 581 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.5 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.4 17.0 1.0 0.8

Ipca labs Accumulate 450 475 5,681 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 15.4 12.3 3.6 2.9 26.1 26.1 2.1 1.8

Lupin Accumulate 566 647 25,327 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.5 18.1 5.0 4.0 26.0 24.7 3.1 2.5

Orchid Chemicals Neutral 104 - 733 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 9.1 7.8 0.6 0.6 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 31, 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

19/21

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 31-10-12

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zOthers

Page Industries Neutral 3,300 - 3,680 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 34.8 27.3 18.1 14.7 57.4 59.5 4.2 3.4

Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 821 821 985 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 16.1 12.0 4.3 3.2 30.3 30.2 1.0 0.9

Sintex Industries Buy 65 79 1,768 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.8 4.1 0.6 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 310 366 291 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.7 4.2 0.9 0.8 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 16 24 476 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 32 43 1,555 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 8.9 6.0 12.9 4.1 - - 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 75 108 467 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.4 8.2 1.3 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.9 1.6Tata Sponge Iron Accumulate 332 384 512 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 5.1 4.8 0.8 0.7 16.5 15.3 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Accumulate 300 335 230 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 9.2 5.4 1.5 1.2 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,144 - 14,958 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 36.9 26.6 2.9 2.6 8.1 10.3 2.2 2.0

Vesuvius India Neutral 333 - 675 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.5 11.6 2.0 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 30, 2012


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