market outlook for ethanol , other fuels, and agricultural products

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Patrick Westhoff FAPRI University of Missouri [email protected] 2009 International Sweetener Colloquium Orlando, February 9, 2009

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Patrick Westhoff FAPRI University of Missouri [email protected]. Market outlook for ethanol , other fuels, and agricultural products. 2009 International Sweetener Colloquium Orlando, February 9, 2009. U.S. biofuel production. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Patrick WesthoffFAPRI

University of [email protected]

2009 International Sweetener ColloquiumOrlando, February 9, 2009

Page 2: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products
Page 3: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products
Page 4: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products
Page 5: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008. Prices expressed on a Sep.-Aug. year basis.

Page 6: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008

Page 7: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: Renewable Fuels Association. Note: Excludes plants that have been built but that are not operating.

Page 8: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products
Page 9: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

FAPRI November 2008 estimates

Page 10: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008.

*To meet air quality requirements and state mandates

Page 11: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI-projections, Nov. 2008. Assumes tariffs and tax credits extendedNotes: RFS adjusted for shortfall in cellulosic production relative to mandate; one

gallon of biodiesel assumed to count as 1.5 gallons of biofuel

Page 12: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

Page 13: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

Futures, 6/6/08, March 2009 contracts:NYMEX petroleum: $136.93-$5.00 basis; CBOT corn: $6.92-$0.40 basis

Page 14: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products

Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

Futures, 1/27/09, March 2009 contracts:NYMEX petroleum: $41.58-$3.00 basis; CBOT corn: $3.77-$0.25 basis

Page 15: Market outlook  for  ethanol ,  other  fuels, and agricultural  products
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To contact me: [email protected]

FAPRI-Missouri website: www.fapri.missouri.edu