market pulse - july 2014

ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- July 2014 1

July 2014


Dear Investors,

MARKET PULSE, the monthly from ACMIIL, aims to provide insightful perspectives on all aspects of the market, the equity, debt, derivatives, forex, commodities and money markets.

Discerning and intuitive comments from the analyst teams of each of these segments aim to enlighten our clients on the developments in these segments and their impact on the respective markets. For instance, stock picks from the equity team would help investors zero down on stocks that have attractive valuations and good earnings potential. The team’s sharp observations and opinions based on in-depth research on the debt markets provide would our clients a thorough understanding of the money markets.

Further, technical perspectives on the futures, forex, and commodities markets would assist our clients to identify the opportune moments to enter and exit the markets and help them derive benefits from a falling as well as rising market with the right research information at the right time.

MARKET PULSE aims to capture the market in all its hues and colors and provides a range of information that helps in making wise investment decisions.

Regards,Research Team ACMIIL

July 2014


Contents

Equity Report

Derivative Report

Overall Outlook

Debt Market Report

Commodity Report

Currency Report

Mutual Fund Report

5

9

4

10

11

12

July 2014

Technical View

7

Retail Research Call Performance Report

18

19Equity SIP Performance Report

22

15

Budget Special

Fixed Deposit Report 16


OVERALL OUTLOOK

Market Outlook For July – Delicately Poised

July would be an eventful month with the major event of the maiden Union budget being the focus of attention. After the landslide victory of the NDA government, expectations are running high. Our budget expectations have been covered separately along with the stocks in focus and our preferred stocks for buying.

The other major event to look forward to will of course be the corporate results, which would also reflect whether the euphoric rise seen in some of the beaten down sectors such as capital goods, infra, and real estate were partly justified. A major cause for concern would be the poor rainfall seen in June, which has raised the alarm bells in the Finance Ministry, since the tight fiscal situation, rising inflation, and sluggish growth have already limited the options of the new Finance Minister. Any further delay in the advent of monsoon beyond July could add to the inflation woes. Last, but not the least, tension in Iraq has seen crude oil prices spiking. Although tensions seam to have eased in the last week, any escalation could see the crude prices hardening, which would strain India’s oil bill, which is already a strain on the finances. Overall, we look forward to an exciting month ahead. Traders and investors are hedging big on the budget. At our end, we have taken a cautious stance like the one we did the last time during the Lok Sabha elections and advise our clients to focus on quality stocks and keep an eye on capital protection, which is imperative after the stupendous rise seen in the past few months.


BUDGET SPECIAL

MAIDEN UNION BUDGET FROM THE NDA GOVT – HIGH EXPECTATIONS BELIE GOVERNMENT’S CAUTIOUS MOODThe Union Budget is due to be announced on July 10. After the landslide victory of the NDA, expectations are riding high and at the time of writing this article, the market is trading at an all-time high with momentum still looking strong for a tar-get of 7900-8000 by the time the Budget is announced. Following are the scheme of events in the prelude to the budget:

• Hopes are sky high• Recent hawkish comments from the PM • FM hinting at possible strong measures to keep the fiscal deficit under control• Kick starting of investment in infrastructure, which will have a positive chain effect on other industries such as

metals, cement, and capital goods

In terms of expectations, following announcements could be on the agenda of the FM:

1) Fillip to infrastructure fundingThe focus on infrastructure could possibly lead to some concessions to lenders to this space such as the banks and financial institutions. Concessions to banks could be in the form of relaxation in CRR, SLR requirements, which could lead to higher lending avenues as well as increase in availability of funds. Financial institutions could be allowed to issue tax-free bonds, specially targeted towards infrastructure.

Stocks in focus: IDFC IDFC, the new banking license holder could be a huge beneficiary, since it is already existing presence in infrastructure could be a distinct advantage. We strongly recommend accumulation of the scrip for long-term gains.

2) Increased tax concessions for housing Some increase in concessions for investment in housing could be on the cards, which could indirectly boost investment into the housing sector. This has been languishing for long period now. This will also provide a good boost to the cement and steel sectors, which have been going through some demand stagnation.

Stocks in focus – HDFC, LIC Hsg Finance, Ramco Cement, JK Lakshmi and JK Cement

Preferred pick will be LIC Hsg Finance, Ramco Cement, and JK Cement

3) Indigenisation in defense manufactureThere is an urgent clamour for increasing India’s defense budget, currently around $35 bn, which pales in comparison with our neighbor China that has a budget of $130 bn. With a tight fiscal situation, any compromise in this area is un-likely, which could possibly encourage the government to announce incentives to local industries for indigenisation.

Stocks in focus – BEML, BEL, M&M, Rolta, and Taneja Aerospace

Preferred pick will be M&M

4) Boost to distribution and transmission of power The NDA government feels that the power crisis can be solved largely by modernising T&D (transmission and distribu-tion) infrastructure, feeder segregation, metering consumption, and harnessing the renewable energy potential. These few strong reform measures, which the government is expected to announce, would help revive this sector. Since the coal sector also falls under the ambit of the power minister, the bottleneck of allocation of coal for power generation is sought to be resolved.

Stocks in focus – Jyoti Structure, Kalpataru Transmission, REC, PFC, NTPC, and Tata Power

All could be considered our preferred picks


5) Increase in excise on cigarette, FMCG goodsThe market is already factoring an excise hike on cigarettes, which has seen stocks such as ITC under pres-sure. With increased focus on increasing revenue, the hike could possibly extend to other products in the FMCG category selectively, which could see some pressure on some of the FMCG goods.

Stocks in focus – ITC and Hind Unilever

Near-term caution advised. Any sharp declines by 10-15% will be a great opportunity to enter into the stocks

6) Oil sector reformsThe oil subsidy burden is a great cause for concern for the government. In view of the impact of the same on the fiscal deficit, some bold measures could be on cards. Gradual decontrol of LPG could happen on similar lines of diesel, which might receive acceptance. All these measures should substantially improve the financial health of oil marketing companies. Simultaneously, they should reduce subsidy burden on ONGC and Oil India.

Stocks in focus – BPCL, HPCL, IOC, and ONGC

Preferred pick will be BPCL

Overall, the budget could again give some near-term pain and long-term gain, which is the message from statements emanating from the PM and FM. The market has already run up substantially in the past 4-5 months and some near-term caution would be advisable. At same time, focus on quality stocks could be on the accumulation list.

BUDGET SPECIAL


EQUITY REPORT

JK Cement LtdIntroductionJK Cement Ltd (JKCL) is one of India’s leading cement producers with 7.5MTPA of gray cement capacity – 4.5MTPA in the North (Rajasthan) and 3MTPA in the South (Karnataka). JKCL is India’s second largest white cement manufac-turer with a capacity of 0.6MTPA. The company’s ongoing 3MTPA split grinding expansion in the North would take its gray cement capacity to 10.5MTPA by FY15. Further, JKCL is expanding its international footprint through a 0.6MTPA Greenfield white cement plant in UAE to address the rising international demand.

Investment RationaleIndustry Outlook: Cement is one of India’s core industries and a participant in infrastructure growth. India’s domestic cement sector is the second largest market and contributes 8% to cement production globally. The cement capacity as on FY14 is 363 MTPA and production level stood at 256 MTPA. We have seen weak demand and over capacity of cement over the past few years. We expect the trend to reverse on the back of stable and decisive government at the centre. Nonetheless, the weakness in growth is likely to continue for the next six months until transition sets in. However, in (2014-17E), the demand of cement is expected to grow at CAGR of 7-8%, in line with the projected GDP growth rate of 6%. Demand from rural sector as well as Tier II and Tier III cities would primarily drive this growth. Although housing remains the largest end user segment (67%), it is the infrastructure sector, which is expected to grow at 10-11% over the next five years.

Capacity expansion plan to drive growth: JKCL is expanding its cement capacity by 3 MTPA in North India. The work on this front is on track and cement dispatches are likely to commence from the split-grinding unit in Jhajjar from June 2014 and from the integrated unit in Mangrol during the July-September 2014 quarter. These would drive growth in gray cement volume, going forward. The company has already set up the grey-cum-white cement plant with an installed ca-pacity of 0.6 MTPA (white cement) and 1.02 MTPA (grey cement) in Fujairah (UAE), which will start seeing full benefit Q1FY15 onwards. The total capex associated with this expansion is estimated to be ~$150 million. The company started trial dispatch of white cement from the plant during Q4FY14, generating an EBITDA/tonne of $20/tonne.

White cement hedge to its grey cement business: JKCL has 0.6 MTPA of white cement capacity. There are only two major players manufacturing white cement, the other being UltraTech Cement, coupled with relatively stable white ce-ment demand. White cement commands around three times the realization fetched by grey cement. Higher realizations and superior stable EBITDA margins make the white cement business a hedge for the company in a subdued economic environment when demand for grey cement is less.

Strong earnings growth to boost ratio: These expansions would lead to volume growth over the next few years along with demand pick up, boosting the EBITDA. Its ROE should also recover from 4.5% in FY14 to much higher levels, going forward. The D/E ratio should peak-out in FY15E at 1.4x and gradually moderate to 1x by FY17E.

ValuationAt the CMP of ` 393 the stock is trading at 28.31x its TTM consensus EPS of ` 13.88. We assign multiple of 13x to FY16E EPS of INR 36 to arrive at value of INR 468. Therefore we give “Buy” rating on the stock.


Introduction EQUITY REPORT

Financials

(INR in crore)

Particulars Q4FY14 Q4FY13 % Chg (YoY) Q3FY14 % Chg

(QoQ) FY14 FY13 % Chg

Net Sales 832.71 771.55 7.93% 677.15 22.97% 2,795.85 2,911.97 -3.99%

Expenditure 669.33 636.49 5.16% 601.26 11.32% 2,420.94 2,351.94 2.93%

Ebidta 163.38 135.06 20.97% 75.89 115.29% 374.91 560.03 -33.06%

Other Income 14.43 8.58 68.18% 12.93 11.60% 47.93 48.67 -1.52%

PBIDT 177.81 143.64 23.79% 88.82 100.19% 422.84 608.70 -30.53%

Depreciation 34.68 33.2 4.46% 33.11 4.74% 133.97 128.26 4.45%

Interest 37.42 32.34 15.71% 39.37 -4.95% 152.60 139.82 9.14%

PBT & exceptional item 105.71 78.10 35.35% 16.34 546.94% 136.27 340.62 -59.99%

Tax 29.33 21.91 33.87% 5.12 472.85% 39.25 107.08 -63.35%

PAT 76.38 56.19 35.93% 11.22 580.75% 97.02 233.54 -58.46%

No. of shares 6.99 6.99 6.99 6.99 6.99

EBITDA % 19.62% 17.51% 12.08% 11.21% 75.07% 13.41% 19.23% -30.27%

NPM % 9.17% 7.28% 25.95% 1.66% 453.58% 3.47% 8.02% -56.73%

Adjusted EPS 10.93 8.04 1.61 13.88 33.41

Source: BSEIndia


TECHNICAL VIEW

Nifty- Technically Ten Thousand

The monthly chart of CNX Nifty Index shows a big bull run until the 2008 period which started in 2003 when the Nifty traded at the 900 level. Within five years, the Nifty registered a sevenfold increase, gaining 5400 points. After touch-ing the 6300 mark in 2008, the Nifty dropped to the 2230 level, like a waterfall. It then pulled back from where it started tumbling. After breaking out above the 6300 level in March 2014, the Nifty gained 1400 points. Following an in-depth technical analysis and taking a broader view, we conclude that the market is in the midst of another bull run, perhaps an encore of the bull run seen during 2003-2008.

We have applied the Fibonacci Price Extension technique to the Nifty Monthly chart. Based on our study of the first bull run from the 900 to 6300 level and the second correction from 6300 to 2230 level, we expect the third bull run to be at least 161.8% higher than previous move, which gives us a target of a five-digit number of 10000 for the Nifty for the first time.

When we talk about the five-digit target of 10000, we should also look at the time horizon for the target. After applying Fibonacci Time Extension to the monthly chart from the bottom level, we see that the price reverses from the Fibonacci Time levels. Based on our calculations of the time extension for the next reversing point, we believe this bull run may continue for 18-20 months more.

Our comment: We have always heard the phrase “Nothing is impossible in Life”. I think this applies to the market as well. The 10000 target for the Nifty in 18-20 months is just one of the possibilities and one should not rush to buy the index and stocks.


DERIVATIVE REPORT

JULY SERIES COULD BE VOLATILE WITH MAJOR EVENTS LINED UP OVERALL OUTLOOKThe June series began on a strong note and saw steady gains as the index finally managed to close at 7493, netting gains of 258 pts for the series. The banking stocks and rate sensitives saw some profit-taking. IT and pharma sectors saw some recovery after being in the shadow for the past two months. With the results season kicking off for FY15 and the maiden Union Budget of the NDA government due in July, the series promises to be action packed. The 7500-7700 range of the last few weeks could be broken on either side. However, caution is advised at higher levels, as the last few months have already seen a dream run up. NIFTYThe Nifty saw rollover of 68% compared with 57% in the previous month. The rollover was also higher compared with the 3-month average (55%) and the 6-month average (60%). This has been at a premium of 41 basis points compared with 30 points in the previous month. However, the point to note was that the lighter quantum of Nifty futures to begin with was at 14.21 mn compared with 15.39 mn in the beginning of May series. Market-wide rolls were at 83% vs previous month’s 82% and the 3-month average of 80%.

BANK NIFTY The index saw rolls of 63% compared with 50% in the previous month. Rollover has been at a premium of 162 points compared with 32 points in the May series. Again, lighter quantum of Bank Nifty futures to begin with was at 2.02 mn compared with 2.59 mn in the beginning of June series, hinting at possible shorts. In view of the major event – Budget 2014, we are recommending the following strategies with the rationale given as well.

Budget Special Strategy

1. Long Straddle in IDFC: Buy 130 CE at Rs. 8 and Buy 130 PE at Rs. 3.75 Lot Size: 2000, Total Investment: 23500 (approx) Expected Return on Investment: 20% Rationale: Tax Free Bonds, SLR, and CRR Relaxation for banks involved in lending for infra

2. Long Straddle in HDFC: Buy 980 CE at Rs. 34 and Buy HDFC 980 PE at Rs.25 Lot Size: 250, Total Investment: 14750 Expected Return on Investment: 20-25% Rationale: Expected increase in tax breaks for investment in housing in the personal income tax.

3. Long Straddle in DLF: Buy DLF 210 CE at Rs. 20 and Buy DLF 210 PE at Rs 8.75 Lot Size: 2000, Total Investment: 57500 Expected Return on Investment: 25-30% Rationale: Tax Break for REIT (Real Estate Investment Trusts)

Note: We have taken ITM (In the money) call options for the above stocks as we are bullish on the above stocks. How-ever, due to a big event such as the budget, we are recommending to buy put also to be safe against sharp volatility.


DEBT MARKET REPORT

DEBT MARKET

Highlights of RBI’s Monetary Policy for June 2014:• Policy repo rate kept unchanged at 8% under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)• Cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks kept unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL)• Statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) of scheduled commercial banks reduced by 50 basis points from 23% to 22.5% of their

NDTL with effect from the fortnight beginning June 14, 2014• Liquidity provided under the export credit refinance (ECR) facility reduced from 50% of eligible export credit out-

standing to 32%• Special term repo facility of 0.25% of NDTL introduced to compensate fully for the reduction in access to liquidity

under the ECR with immediate effect. • Continued to provide liquidity under 7-day and 14-day term repos of up to 0.75% of NDTL of the banking system

The policy stated that if disinflation is faster than anticipated, it would provide RBI with the room to ease its stance on monetary policy. This bolstered market sentiments and led to generation of bullish momentum. RBI’s soft tone in policy coupled with strong interest from foreign funds led to sharp gains in the G-Sec market.

However, the momentum could not be sustained because of a sharp surge in crude oil prices and a weakening cur-rency. Tensions in the Middle East region, particularly Iraq, led to concerns, which pushed crude oil to its highest level in around nine months

In the primary space, REC raised funds through 5 Yr bonds with the cutoff at 9.02%.

As on June 30 T-Bill CD

1m 8.50% 8.54%

3m 8.55% 8.56%

6m 8.65% 8.72%

1yr 8.65% 8.90%

As on June 30 G-Sec Corp Bond

3yr 8.35% 9.14%

5yr 8.62% 9.19%

10yr 8.74% 9.18%

15yr 8.65% 9.22%

96

98

100

102

104

2 3 4 5 6 9 10 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 27 30

June Month

Pri

ce


COMMODITY REPORT

Is Crude Setting Up For Something Big?The oil market has been in a bullish mode for some time now and technical should never be ignored when it comes to commodities. However, a majority of this bull run has been due to increasing global tensions because of Ukraine and Iraq. Both these are crucial regions for exports of energy products. Apart from this, the weakening US Dollar also helped push up prices in the oil market.

International WTI Crude:

Daily chart-

The daily chart of WTI crude oil above shows that price has given a breakout after consolidating in the Ascending Upside Triangle pattern. Currently, Elliott wave theory suggests that price is trading in wave 2 of the 5 wave structure of wave 3/C. Estimates based on this suggest that oil price may touch $113 level within 6-8 weeks.

Weekly Chart:-


COMMODITY REPORT

The long-term chart for weekly chart of WTI crude oil above shows that price is in the A-B-C corrective structure where Wave B is a complex corrective with triangle formation. The price could have completed its B wave by the end-2013. Since start of 2014, the price is on an uptrend. It gained more than $15 in a six-month time frame. The labeling shows that the price has started its C wave structure. If the price is able to cross this triangle, we may expect it to go up at least to where wave A is. This could lead to a target of $150 unfolding over the longer term.

MCX Crude Oil Chart:

Daily Chart:

In the daily chart for crude oil above, we can see that price has gained more than 3% in June. After providing a breakout from Descending Triangle formation at the 6120 level, the price shot up sharply. Labeling Elliott wave count suggests that the price is trading at wave ii of 5 wave structure of wave 3/C. We expect the price to correct to the 6200 level within 1-2 week. As per the price extension wave 3/C, the target comes to 6945.

Weekly Chart:


COMMODITY REPORTThe long-term or weekly chart above suggests that price is on an uptrend. Applying the Elliott theory, we can see that the price is in wave b of the higher degree corrective wave of wave 4 of higher degree Wave C chart suggests that price may complete its wave b close to the 6950-7000 level by the end of this year. It would be foolish to predict the longer-term target right now. However, the chart and the set of counts suggest that after completing correction of wave 4 at 5500, the price may resume its uptrend for the final wave, i.e. wave 5 of wave C, which gives us a target level of 8500.

Conclusion:Short term (6-8 weeks) Long term (30-36 months)

WTI Crude oil ($115) ($150)

MCX Crude oil 6900-6950 8500


CURRENCY REPORT

Rupee favouring Bulls or Bears Indian rupee completed its biggest monthly fall since August 2013 on concerns of higher global oil prices spurring inflation and widening the trade deficit. The currency lost 0.5 percent this quarter on concerns of a potential drop in farm output because of inadequate rainfall; Furthermore, the bigger worry was that it would stoke price pressures. The monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of India’s annual rains, was 43% lower than the 50-year average this month, according to the weather department. Brent crude rallied about 3% in June on speculation that violence in Iraq would disrupt supplies.

The Reserve Bank of India frequently bought dollars ever since the rupee touched ~ 58.33 to US dollar on May 23rd, a 11 month high; this was essentially to prevent the currency from appreciating too much. Moreover, it prevented the cur-rency from gaining much despite positive factors such as hopes for reforms sparked by the election of Narendra Modi as PM last month, which spurred a surge in foreign investment.

The rupee is expected to remain range-bound until the Modi government delivers its first budget on July 10, which would be an acid test of its fiscal and reform credentials. The unit fell 1.78 percent in June, marking its biggest monthly fall since August 2013, and it fell 0.41 percent for the quarter. Besides RBI intervention, concerns over global factors such as the violence in Iraq, hit the rupee in June. However, the rupee is up 2.72 percent so far this year, making it among the top performers among the Asian currencies.

Technical View:

USDINR Chart forms a falling wedge pattern, thus, indicating a bullish reversal. We saw strength in rupee before the election results during March 2014 and it continued with its winning streak after announcement of the new government in May. For the last week of July, rupee traded range bound, moving close to the key resistance point of 60.85. RSI is indicating the pair to be in the oversold zone and could cause a market reversal from here on. After breakout above this level, rupee may weaken to a level of 62.75 levels. Fall below the 58.22 level would negate our bullish view on USDINR.


FIXED DEPOSIT REPORT

Product FeaturesFeatures 18 month Deposit

Exclusively for Women

Interest Rate up to 11.35%

Yield up to 12.01%

Minimum Deposit Amount (In `) 10,000

Duration of deposit 18 Months

Cumulative compounded Half Yearly

Periodic Interest Payable (Non Cumulative) Yearly / Half Yearly / Quarterly / Monthly

` 25 lac and above deposit (0.25% additional ROI) Yes

Privileges (Y/N) (0.50% additional ROI) Yes

Accidental Death Insurance Yes

Tax Exemption on Interest upto ` 5,000/- Yes

DHFL Swayamsidha Deposit

DHFL is India’s second largest private housing finance company

DHFL was established by the Late Shri Rajesh Kumar Wadhawan, a visionary Indian businessman.

More than 30 years have passed since the company’s inception; today DHFL stands strong as one of India’s largest housing finance companies (and the second largest in the private sector). Today, led by Mr. Kapil Wadhawan, the company still lives by the dreams and principles of the founder and continues to enable access to home ownership to its customers through a network of 278 branches spread across India. It is profitably doing what its founder intended it to do.

DHFL takes pride in its purpose-driven team of enthusiastic professionals who are willing to carry on the founder’s vision and transform the housing sector in India by providing affordable housing finance to the people of the country.

DHFL has been assigned ‘CARE AAA (Triple A)’ by CARE and ‘AAA’ by Brickworks for various secured long-term debt instruments and CRISIL assigned ‘CRISIL A1+’ rating for short-term debt.

Swayamsidha: DHFL’s fixed deposit scheme for women with high returns, safety and liquidity

DHFL specially designed a fixed deposit scheme for Indian women and named it as ‘Swayamsidha’, this fixed deposit scheme provides Indian women with a higher rate of interest, of 11.35% for a period of 18 months, along with a free insurance cover of 1 lakh for every first depositor. Further, Swayamsidha offers a high yield of up to 12.01%. An additional rate of 0.50% can be availed by privileged women customers and senior citizens under the same scheme.

DHFL’s fixed deposits are rated ‘AAA FD’ by CARE and ‘BWR AAA’ by Brickworks and assure high safety and excellent credit quality and can be availed from any of DHFL’s office across 447 locations in the country. Swayamsidha fixed deposits are available with a minimum investment of ` 10,000/- (Rupees Ten Thousand Only).

Highlights:

• Additional 0.50% for women senior citizens

• Tenure: 18 months

• Facility for Loan against Deposits

• Free Accident Insurance cover of ` 1,00,000/- for first depositors


Scheme DetailsCumulative Scheme

Period in months

Deposit < ` 25 Lacs Deposit ` 25 Lacs and above

General Customer Privilege Customer General Customer Privilege Customer

ROI (%p.a.)

Annual Yield

ROI (%p.a.)

Annual Yield

ROI (%p.a.)

Annual Yield

ROI (%p.a.)

Annual Yield

18 10.6 11.17 11.1 11.73 10.85 11.45 11.35 12.01

Non Cumulative Scheme

Period in monthsDeposit < ` 25 Lacs Deposit ` 25 Lacs and above

Yearly Half Yearly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Half

Yearly Quarterly Monthly

18 months 10.88 10.6 10.46 10.37 11.14 10.85 10.7 10.61

18 months Privilege 11.41 11.1 10.95 10.85 11.67 11.35 11.19 11.09

• Minimum Deposit for monthly interest plan is ` 20,000/-

• Minimum Deposit for others ` 10,000/-

• Interest payments through ECS

• Additional Deposit over the minimum amount to be in multiple of ` 1,000/-

FIXED DEPOSIT REPORT


Suggested Scheme from ACMIIL

MUTUAL FUND REPORT

Equity FundScheme Name

NAVPercentage Return

3 months 1 year 3 years

ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund - Regular Plan 25.46 17.76 40.51 15.12

ICICI Pru Dynamic Reg 169.5976 17.71 53.66 16.27

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities- G 29.283 30.08 68.18 21.79

L&T India Large Cap Fund 17.56 19.61 38.89 12.45

Birla SL Frontline Equity 138.56 19.04 40.94 16.22

UTI Opportunities 42.2828 16.93 35.23 15.39

Franklin India Prima Plus 340.4336 17.98 40.5 15.16

Reliance Equity Opportunities 61.9313 25.14 53.04 19.12

Balance FundScheme Name



HDFC Prudence Fund 339.88 27.91 50.98 16.04

Tata Balanced Plan A 135.2151 21.1 39.28 17.09

ICICI Pru Balanced Advantage Reg 22.3 11.44 30.72 15.98

Reliance Regular Savings Fund - Balanced Option 33.88 19.81 39.13 15.04

Debt FundScheme Name



UTI Short-term Income Regular 22.7782 3.04 9.01 9.95

Franklin India ST Income Ret 2642.1354 2.78 8.88 9.68

ICICI Pru Regular Savings 13.5713 2.67 8.35 9.02

IDFC Dynamic Bond Reg 14.9523 2.49 2.93 9.27

Birla SL Income Plus 55.9353 3.53 0.6 7.79

Birla SL Short Term Opportunities 21.145 2.89 9.41 10.49

ICICI Pru Income Plan Reg 39.12 4.65 1.33 7.61

Liquid FundScheme Name



ICICI Pru Liquid Plan Reg 194.0998 2.23 9.51 9.41

Reliance Liquid Tre Inst 3,195.61 2.23 9.48 9.4

HDFC Cash Mgmt Savings 27.3904 2.23 9.4 9.36

ElSS FundScheme Name



Axis Long Term Equity 23.246 22.13 55.19 21.75

ICICI Pru Tax Plan Reg 235.53 25.81 61.19 18.45

Franklin India Taxshield 327.102 17.93 40.28 15.52


EQUITY SIP PERFORMANCE

Aggressive Portfolio

Sr. No. Scrip Name Sector Weight Acc. Qty Avg.

PriceTotal

InvestmentBasket

Qty

Price as on 2nd

July 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Tata Motors Ltd Automobile 11.08% 57.00 346.85 19770.38 3.00 455.80 1367.40 0.11 0.31 3.48%

2 ICICI Bank Banking 11.85% 19.00 1113.47 21155.92 1.00 1,452.00 1452.00 0.19 0.30 3.60%

3 LIC Housing Finance Ltd

NBFC 5.07% 38.00 237.98 9043.29 2.00 327.65 655.30 0.09 0.38 1.91%

4 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Capital Goods

13.26% 22.00 1075.69 23665.11 1.00 1,753.95 1753.95 0.19 0.63 8.36%

5 Ambuja Cement Ltd Cement 3.98% 38.00 186.97 7104.78 2.00 226.30 452.60 0.04 0.21 0.84%

6 ONGC Ltd Oil & Gas 3.61% 17.00 374.15 6434.90 1.00 426.60 426.60 0.05 0.14 0.51%

7 Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd Diversified 12.21% 19.00 1147.12 21795.23 1.00 1,405.30 1405.30 0.13 0.23 2.75%

8 HCL Technologies Ltd IT services 11.56% 19.00 1085.74 20629.11 1.00 1,480.30 1480.30 0.04 0.36 4.20%

9 Zee Entertainment Ent. Ltd

Media 5.33% 38.00 250.55 9521.00 2.00 297.95 595.90 0.04 0.19 1.01%

10 Tata Steel Ltd Metals & Mining

4.37% 21.00 371.60 7803.69 2.00 543.50 1087.00 0.06 0.46 2.02%

11 Sun Pharmaceuticals Inds. Ltd

Pharmaceu-ticals

10.84% 36.00 537.60 19353.48 1.00 693.40 693.40 0.06 0.29 3.14%

12 Bharti Airtel Ltd Telecom 6.85% 38.00 321.62 12221.65 2.00 338.15 676.30 0.08 0.05 0.35%

100.00% 178498.55 12046.05 1.07 32.47%

Dividend 0.80%

Total 33.27%

Moderate Portfolio

Sr. No. Scrip Name Sector Weight Acc. Qty Avg.

PriceTotal Invest-

mentBasket

Qty

Price as on 2nd

Jul 2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

Automobile 16.41% 19.00 1657.93 31500.70 1.00 2,641.95 2641.95 0.14 0.59 9.74%

2 HDFC Bank Banking 7.57% 21.00 692.43 14541.09 2.00 839.90 1679.80 0.07 0.21 1.61%

3 M&M Financial Ser-vices Ltd

NBFC 2.55% 19.00 257.28 4888.24 2.00 287.10 574.20 0.02 0.12 0.30%

4 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Capital Goods

12.33% 22.00 1075.69 23665.11 1.00 1,753.95 1753.95 0.19 0.63 7.77%

5 Ambuja Cement Ltd Cement 3.70% 38.00 186.97 7104.78 2.00 226.30 452.60 0.03 0.21 0.78%

6 ITC Ltd FMCG 6.47% 38.00 326.92 12423.08 2.00 329.35 658.70 0.04 0.01 0.05%

7 TCS Ltd IT services 18.64% 19.00 1883.14 35779.65 1.00 2,401.60 2401.60 0.10 0.28 5.13%

8 Zee Entertainment Ent. Ltd

Media 4.96% 38.00 250.55 9521.00 2.00 297.95 595.90 0.03 0.19 0.94%

9 Hindalco Inds. Ltd Metals & Mining

2.30% 38.00 116.03 4409.02 2.00 178.25 356.50 0.04 0.54 1.23%

10 Reliance Inds. Ltd Oil & Gas 8.66% 19.00 875.36 16631.80 1.00 1,018.25 1018.25 0.08 0.16 1.41%

11 Biocon Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

7.23% 38.00 365.44 13886.86 2.00 523.25 1046.50 0.05 0.43 3.12%


100.00% 191983.71 13856.25 0.87 32.06%

Dividend 0.71%

Total 32.77%



Defensive Portfolio

Sr. No. Scrip Name Sector Weight Acc.

QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 2nd Jul

2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Automobile 15.93% 19.00 1651.38 31376.20 1.00 2,641.95 2641.95 0.14 0.60 9.55%

2 Bharat Forge Ltd Automobile 4.22% 16.00 510.15 8319.2 1.00 663.50 663.50 0.18 0.30 1.27%

3 HDFC Bank Banking 7.36% 21.00 690.14 14492.90 2.00 839.90 1679.80 0.07 0.22 1.60%

4 Cummins India Ltd Capital Goods 4.67% 19.00 484.48 9205.05 1.00 665.75 665.75 0.02 0.37 1.75%

5 Dabur India Ltd FMCG 7.28% 80.00 178.60 14344.20 4.00 186.45 745.80 0.03 0.04 0.32%

6 Apollo Hospitals Enter-prise Ltd

Healthcare 8.67% 19.00 899.50 17090.55 1.00 1,029.30 1029.30 0.03 0.14 1.25%

7 TCS Ltd IT services 18.08% 19.00 1874.26 35610.85 1.00 2,401.60 2401.60 0.09 0.28 5.09%

8 NMDC Ltd Metals & Mining 3.98% 57.00 137.50 7837.35 3.00 184.85 554.55 0.03 0.34 1.37%

9 HDFC Ltd NBFC 8.09% 19.00 838.91 15939.25 1.00 1,007.80 1007.80 0.08 0.20 1.63%

10 BPCL Oil & Gas 7.51% 38.00 389.12 14786.60 2.00 601.80 1203.60 0.05 0.55 4.10%

11 Lupin Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

8.04% 19.00 833.42 15835.05 1.00 1,074.20 1074.20 0.02 0.29 2.32%


100.00% 197009.80 14344.15 0.79 28.11%

Dividend 0.64%

Total 28.75%

Dividend Yield Portfolio


QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 2nd Jul

2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Hero Motocorp Ltd Automobile 20.36% 11.00 2143.09 23573.95 1.00 2,679.80 2679.80 0.14 0.25 5.10%

2 REC Ltd NBFC 4.35% 22.00 228.92 5036.20 2.00 369.95 739.90 0.07 0.62 2.68%

3 Karur Vysya Bank BFSI 6.88% 22.00 362.31 7970.80 2.00 490.15 980.30 0.05 0.35 2.43%

4 ACC Ltd Cement 11.25% 11.00 1183.87 13022.55 1.00 1,498.40 1498.40 0.08 0.27 2.99%

5 Tata Chemicals Ltd Chemicals 2.63% 11.00 277.02 3047.20 1.00 352.55 352.55 0.02 0.27 0.72%

6 Cummins India Ltd Capital Goods 9.44% 22.00 497.09 10936.00 2.00 665.75 1331.50 0.04 0.34 3.20%

7 Hindustan Unilever Ltd FMCG 5.62% 11.00 591.67 6508.40 1.00 631.15 631.15 0.03 0.07 0.38%

8 ONGC Ltd Oil & Gas 5.92% 22.00 311.79 6859.30 2.00 426.60 853.20 0.07 0.37 2.18%

9 Tata Steel Ltd Metals 7.21% 22.00 379.52 8349.50 2.00 543.50 1087.00 0.09 0.43 3.12%

10 Coal India Ltd Mining 2.79% 11.00 294.18 3235.95 1.00 393.55 393.55 0.02 0.34 0.94%

11 HCL Technologies Ltd IT services 12.51% 11.00 1316.97 14486.70 1.00 1,480.30 1480.30 0.05 0.12 1.55%

12 Piramal Enterprises Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

11.02% 22.00 580.01 12760.30 2.00 695.65 1391.30 0.07 0.20 2.20%

100.00% 115786.85 12027.65 0.72 27.48%

Dividend 0.60%

Total 28.08%



Mid Cap Portfolio


QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 2nd Jul

2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Motherson Sumi Sys-tems Ltd

Auto Ancillaries 4.58% 15.00 252.13 3782.01 2.00 345.60 691.20 0.02 0.37 1.70%

2 ING Vysya Bank BFSI 4.99% 7.00 587.69 4113.80 1.00 659.75 659.75 0.04 0.12 0.61%

3 Bajaj Finance Ltd NBFC 14.93% 7.00 1759.86 12319.00 1.00 2,099.90 2099.90 0.15 0.19 2.89%

4 Va Tech Wabag Ltd Capital Goods 14.13% 14.00 832.41 11653.80 2.00 1,441.95 2883.90 0.07 0.73 10.34%

5 PI Industries Ltd Chemicals 4.62% 14.00 272.21 3811.00 2.00 331.40 662.80 0.02 0.22 1.00%

6 Britannia Industries Ltd FMCG 7.56% 7.00 890.99 6236.95 1.00 1,030.25 1030.25 0.04 0.16 1.18%

7 CMC Ltd IT services 12.89% 7.00 1519.41 10635.90 1.00 1,987.55 1987.55 0.03 0.31 3.97%

8 Tech Mahindra Ltd IT services 11.68% 5.00 1927.61 9638.05 1.00 2,100.70 2100.70 0.03 0.09 1.05%

9 Aia Engineering Ltd Capital Goods 5.44% 6.00 748.44 4490.65 1.00 784.75 784.75 0.02 0.05 0.26%

10 Info Edge India Ltd Miscellaneous 5.01% 7.00 590.86 4136.05 1.00 661.70 661.70 0.01 0.12 0.60%

11 Ipca Laboratories Ltd Pharmaceu-ticals

9.52% 10.00 785.53 7855.3 1.00 878.80 878.80 0.00 0.12 1.13%

12 JK Cement Ltd Cement 4.64% 11.00 348.14 3829.55 2.00 384.65 769.30 0.03 0.10 0.49%

100.00% 82502.06 15210.60 0.46 27.55%

Dividend 0.06%

Total 27.61%

PSU Equity SIP Portfolio


QtyAvg. Price

Total In-vestment

Basket Qty

Price as on 2nd Jul

2014

Total Value

Portfolio Beta

Return

% Return

Wt. Return

1 Bank of Baroda BFSI 9.86% 3.00 969.00 2722.20 1.00 880.90 880.90 0.16 -0.09 -0.90%

2 BOI BFSI 6.72% 6.00 300.00 1856.70 2.00 304.10 608.20 0.14 0.01 0.09%

3 REC Ltd BFSI 7.37% 6.00 330.00 2035.50 2.00 369.95 739.90 0.11 0.12 0.89%

4 BHEL Capital Goods 8.34% 9.00 266.50 2302.65 3.00 259.40 778.20 0.13 -0.03 -0.22%

5 BEML Capital Goods 14.57% 6.00 559.00 4024.10 2.00 789.25 1578.50 0.18 0.41 6.00%

6 GSFC Fertilizers 5.02% 18.00 71.50 1386.90 6.00 85.25 511.50 0.03 0.19 0.97%

7 Container Corporation of India Ltd

Logistics 12.96% 3.00 1174.95 3578.50 1.00 1,290.25 1290.25 0.06 0.10 1.27%

8 Coal India Ltd. Metals & Mining 8.31% 6.00 389.00 2293.60 2.00 393.55 787.10 0.06 0.01 0.10%

9 SAIL Metals & Mining 6.01% 18.00 86.50 1659.60 6.00 98.55 591.30 0.06 0.14 0.84%

10 Oil & Natural Gas Cor-poration Ltd.

Oil & Gas 8.98% 6.00 417.00 2479.30 2.00 426.60 853.20 0.11 0.02 0.21%

11 BPCL Oil & Gas 6.23% 3.00 575.90 1721.05 1.00 601.80 601.80 0.08 0.04 0.28%

12 Powergrid Ltd Power 5.61% 12.00 122.25 1549.80 4.00 141.30 565.20 0.04 0.16 0.87%

Total 100.00% 27609.90 9786.05 1.15 10.40%


RETAIL RESEARCH CALL PERFORMANCE

Daily PicksCalls Performance Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Total calls given 50 50 37 56 47 47 58 56 63 51 55 60

Target 60 60 60 60 60 60 69 57 60 57 63 60

Successful 34 37 22 32 26 28 35 36 44 36 41 43

Unsuccessful 16 13 15 24 21 19 23 20 19 15 14 17

Succes Rate 68% 74% 59% 57% 55% 60% 60% 64% 70% 71% 75% 72%

Quick PicksCalls Activated 22 25 23 35 17 46 29 18 33 28 32 33

Target 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Successful 15 14 13 22 5 31 18 10 21 17 25 21

Unsuccessful 7 11 10 13 12 15 11 8 12 11 7 12

Succes Rate 68% 56% 57% 63% 29% 67% 62% 56% 64% 61% 78% 64%

MT Medium Risk CallsCalls Activated 45 60 45 39 18 46 38 22 40 22 21 27

Target 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

Successful 23 43 31 24 7 32 28 15 33 14 17 21

Unsuccessful 19 17 12 17 10 14 10 7 9 8 4 6

Succes Rate 55% 72% 72% 59% 41% 70% 74% 68% 79% 64% 81% 78%

MT High Risk CallsCalls Activated 23 43 30 27 16 24 24 17 18 18 17 19

Target 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Successful 18 21 17 19 6 19 18 11 10 11 15 17

Unsuccessful 5 22 10 11 9 5 6 6 7 6 2 2

Succes Rate 78% 49% 63% 63% 40% 79% 75% 65% 59% 65% 88% 100%

SmarTrades CallsCalls Activated 13 12 8 10 9 14 10 11 9 5 13 12

Target 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Successful 7 4 8 3 10 13 9 3 9 7 12 4

Unsuccessful 8 7 1 3 2 0 4 3 3 2 4 4

Succes Rate 44% 36% 67% 43% 83% 72% 60% 50% 75% 78% 75% 50%


Disclaimer:This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report

Disclosure of Interest MARKET PULSE - July 20141. Analyst ownership of the stock NO

2. Broking Relationship with the company covered NO

3. Investment Banking relationship with the company covered NO

4. Discretionary Portfolio Management Services NO

This document has been prepared by the Resea rch Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein. SEBI Regn No: BSE INB 010607233 (Cash); INF 010607233 (F&O), NSE INB 230607239 (Cash); INF 230607239 (F&O)

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