market research jan 27_jan 31

Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Wkly Chg

EUR/USD 1.367 1.365 1.366 1.356 1.349 -1.38%

EUR/CHF 1.226 1.229 1.223 1.224 1.223 -0.05%

EUR/GBP 0.825 0.824 0.825 0.822 0.820 -1.18%

EUR/JPY 140. 400 140. 980 139. 690 139. 290 137. 630 -1.67%

EUR/YUAN 8.269 8.263 8.272 8.217 8.175 -1.18%

AUD/JPY 89.640 90.700 89.470 90.380 89.260 0.43%

Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan 31

Euribor 1M 0.239% 0.241% 0.237% 0.232% 0.230%

Euribor 3M 0.300% 0.301% 0.300% 0.298% 0.296%

Euribor 6M 0.404% 0.404% 0.402% 0.399% 0.396%

Euribor 12M 0.569% 0.569% 0.566% 0.562% 0.559%

Eonia 0.188% 0.179% 0.157% 0.155% 0.228%


Portugal 6M 0.615% 0.620% 0.782% 0.817% 0.779%

Portugal 5Y 3.694% 3.638% 4.201% 4.126% 4.025%

Portugal 10Y 5.049% 4.946% 5.118% 5.106% 5.008%

Spain 10Y 3.763% 3.697% 3.715% 3.716% 3.661%

France 10Y 2.365% 2.365% 2.351% 2.306% 2.229%

Italy 10Y 3.907% 3.859% 3.867% 3.839% 3.770%

Germany 10Y 1.671% 1.677% 1.644% 1.619% 1.660%

UK 10Y 2.784% 2.796% 2.758% 2.751% 2.720%

v

REFERENCE RATES

CURRENCIES

BOND YIELDS

/2 Financial Markets | [email protected]|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

MARKET RESEARCH

INDEXES PERFORMANCE

FEP Finance Club; tradingeconomics.com

FEP Finance Club; Google Finance

Jan 27th

– Jan 31st

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

FEP Finance Club; Banco de Portugal; BPI

PSI20 follows European negative trend

Last week, the PSI20 lost 1.13% to 6696.67 points. The

index was not immune to the turbulence registered in

global markets, and investors’ confidence in

Portuguese economic recovery was not enough to

counteract jitters that world’s economic growth may

be slowing down. In debt markets, the Portuguese

Government bonds’ yields showed a mixed trend:

while for the 6-months term bond and for the 5-year

term bonds the yields increased, to 0.78% and 4.03%

respectively, the 10-year Portuguese Government

Bonds’ yield decreased to 5.01%. On Thursday, data

released by the European Commission showed that

the confidence of Portuguese economic agents

improved in January, with the indicator reaching a 5.5-

year high (99.6).

European Indices under pressure

European equity markets were under pressure last

week. The FTSE100 lost 0.61% and the DAX dropped

0.46%, while the CAC40 climbed 0.51%. However, the

gains of the main French Stock Index were not enough

to avoid the slide of the Europe's leading Blue-chip

index for the Eurozone, the STOXX50 fell 0.02% on

the week. The performance of the European Indices

was hurt by concerns regarding the emerging-market

currency crisis, the winding down of the Fed’s

economic stimulus and after data showed an

unexpected drop in euro inflation, reviving fears that

the currency bloc may be slipping into deflation.

Asian currencies continue to decline

Asian currencies declined for a third week, led by the

Thai baht and Malaysia’s ringgit, amid concern a

slowdown in China and U.S. stimulus cuts will deepen

the selloff in developing countries. Emerging-market

stocks extended their worst start to a year since

2008, and declined as signs of a Chinese slowdown

and worse-than-estimated Russian economic data

bolstered concern the global recovery will falter.

China’s manufacturing sector contracted this month,

with the Markit/HSBC PMI falling to 49.5 in January

from 50.5 in December, its lowest level in 6 months.

Japan's annual inflation rate rose to 1.6% and retail

sales increased 2.6% (YoY) in December, below

expectations of a 3.9% rise. The yen climbed against

the dollar for its biggest monthly advance since 2012.

Australia’s 10-year yield reached its lowest level since

October, 3.99%. FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

SPOTLIGHT

Japan's Annual Inflation Rate

Volatile U.S. stocks continue to fall

U.S. stocks finished the week registering high volatility

and more losses. The catalysts that drove the DJIA

and the S&P 500 to their worst monthly performances

since May 2012 seem to have not gone away. Fed

decision, on Wednesday, to continue tapering, wiped

off the better than expected quarterly earnings from

big companies, such as D.R. Horton, Pfizer and

Facebook. On the economic front, sales of new U.S.

homes decreased 7% to a 414.000 annualized pace in

December. Moreover, pending home sales index fell

to 92.4 in December, from a downwardly revised

101.2 level in the previous month, the lowest level

since October 2011. U.S. consumer confidence

climbed to a 5-month high of 80.7 in January. In

December this figure was 77.5 and analysts had

expected it to rise to 78.1. Besides, companies seem

to be less sure than households that the U.S. economy

is strengthening, as orders for U.S. durable goods

unexpectedly dropped 4.3%. Lastly, U.S. GDP rose

3.2% at an annualized rate in Q4, in line with

consensus estimates, official data showed on Thursday.

Brazil unemployment rate falls again

Retail sales in Argentina grew at a slower pace in

December amid rising interest rates and an uncertain

economic outlook. Economic activity in Mexico fell

more than expected last month, while the trade

balance rose more than expected in the same period.

Moreover, Mexico's central bank kept interest rates

on hold at a record low of 3.5%. Outstanding loans in

Brazil's banking system rose 2.4% (MoM) in December,

while Brazil’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose less than

expected Lastly, Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to a

record low 4.3% in December, from an already low

4.6% in November.

Natural Gas falls on mild weather forecasts.

WTI crude fell from the highest level of 2014 on

concern that developing economies may shrink.

Natural gas also fell as forecasts for milder weather in

February signaled reduced demand for heating fuel.

Gold followed the same trend after an upbeat report

on U.S. consumer sentiment sparked demand for the

dollar. On the other hand Sugar futures soared as

record-high temperatures triggered supply concerns in

Brazil, the world’s top producer.

SPOTLIGHT

U.S. Pending Home Sales Growth Rate (MoM)

US TREASURY YIELDS

CURRENCIES

FEP Finance Club; investing.com

COMMODITIES

/2

INDEXES PERFORMANCE



Financial Markets | [email protected]|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

José SilvaDavid Novo


Pedro SantosAna Santos Pratik Ashok

FEP Finance Club; Google Finance


US 3M 0.053% 0.051% 0.046% 0.020% 0.020%

US 1Y 0.017% 0.104% 0.099% 0.094% 0.091%

US 10 Y 2.750% 2.752% 2.679% 2.697% 2.644%

US 30 Y 3.667% 3.674% 3.618% 3.637% 3.599%

-5,68%

-1,46%

0,60%

1,20% Corn 2,90% Sugar

-2,02%

-3,78%

-2,21%

Crude Oil WTI

Natural Gas

Crude Oil Brent Copper

Silver

Gold


S&P 500 1.781,56 1.792,50 1.774,20 1.794,19 1.782,59 -0,43%

DJIA 15.837,88 15.928,56 15.738,79 15.848,61 15.698,85 -1,14%

NQ 100 3.509,02 3.505,72 3.467,82 3.532,41 3.521,92 -0,55%

S&P Lac 40 3.318,95 3.322,85 3.267,27 3.291,27 3.286,39 -1,07%


USD/JPY 102, 670 103, 250 102, 280 102, 750 102, 020 -0,31%

USD/YUAN 6,048 6,051 6,056 6,061 6,061 -0,68%

AUD/USD 0,873 0,879 0,875 0,880 0,875 0,79%

GBP/USD 1,657 1,657 1,656 1,650 1,644 -0,27%

USD/CHF 0,896 0,900 0,895 0,903 0,906 1,34%

USD/CAD 1,112 1,115 1,118 1,116 1,113 0,36%

market research jan 27_jan 31

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