market roundup...er market roundup macro-economic overview wholesale price inflation, represented by...

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Domestic Macroeconomic Development

The Indian economy experienced a slowdown in the third quarter, as reflected by the national accounts data

released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). Gross domestic product

(GDP) growth for the third quarter was estimated to be 6.6%, which was its lowest rate of growth since Q1 FY

2017-18. The deceleration in growth was led by a reduction in government expenditure, which grew by 6.5%

(10.8% in Q2). Private consumption also decelerated to 8.4% (9.8%). Private investment however held firm,

growing by 10.6% (10.2%), indicating that investors remained buoyant about the economic prospects of the

country. A rise in growth of exports (14.6% vs 13.9%), vis-à-vis a fall in import growth (14.7% vs 21.4%)

implied that trade deficit was smaller compared to previous quarters.

In output growth calculated by market value, gross value added (GVA) growth also decelerated to 6.3% (6.8%

earlier). Agricultural and allied sector suffered a slowdown due to an uneven distribution of the South-West

monsoon, and grew by 2.7%, its lowest level of growth in 11 quarters. A higher than estimated level of Rabi

crop sowing might provide a boost to the sector in the fourth quarter. In the industrial segment,

manufacturing sector continued to exhibit stable growth (6.7% vs 6.9%), while construction continued its

upward trend (9.6% vs 8.5%). Government measures to promote affordable housing under the Pradhan

Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) has contributed to the resurgence in the construction sector, which was earlier

bogged down by the demonetisation as well as the Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA). The mining sector is

suffering from production outages since the beginning of the fiscal.

Market Roundup

MArket Roundup

Macro-Economic Overview

18

Table M1: India's Economic Activity Profile (Sector-wise Growth (Y/Y) Rates (%)

Source: Central Statistical Office (CSO) & CCIL Research

GVA: Gross Value Added, AE: Advance Estimate, PE: Provisional Estimate

Sectors2016-17(2nd RE)

2017-18(1st RE)

2018-19(2nd AE)

2018-19Q1

2018-19Q2

2018-19Q3

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 6.3 5.0 2.7 5.1 4.2 2.7

Industry 7.7 5.9 7.7 10.0 6.7 7.1

Mining & Quarrying 9.5 5.1 1.2 0.4 -2.1 1.3

Manufacturing 7.9 5.9 8.1 12.4 6.9 6.7

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility 10.0 8.6 8.0 6.7 8.7 8.2

Construction 6.1 5.6 8.9 9.6 8.5 9.6

Services 8.4 8.1 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.2

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication &Broadcasting Services

7.7 7.8 6.8 7.8 6.9 6.9

Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services 8.7 6.2 7.3 6.6 7.2 7.3

Public Administration, Defence & Other Services 9.2 11.9 8.5 7.6 8.7 7.6

GVA at Basic Price (at 2011-12 Prices) 7.9 6.9 6.8 7.8 6.8 6.3

GDP @ 2011-12 8.2 7.2 7.0 8.0 7.0 6.6

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Weak economic performance continued in the fourth quarter, as growth in core industries continued to slide.

Growth in the core index decelerated to 1.8%, which was its fourth consecutive month of decline. Three out

of eight core industries posted negative growth, with electricity surprisingly registering its first negative

growth since the inception of the data release in April 2013. Growth in crude oil production and refinery also

registered negative growth. Cement industry continued its strong performance (11.0% vs 11.6%) on the back

of a resurgent construction sector, while fertilizer (10.5%) and steel production (8.24% vs 12.9%) also showed

stable growth.

MArket Roundup


19

Chart M1: Sector-wise Growth Rate (%) in Production

Table M2: India's Industrial Production Growth Profile (at Base Year 2011-12)

Source: Central Statistical Office (CSO) & CCIL Research

GVA: Gross Value Added, AE: Advance Estimate, PE: Provisional Estimate, RE: Revised Estimate

Growth (Y/Y) Rate (%) Growth (Y/Y) Rate on Use-Based (Goods) ClassificationPeriod

Mining MFG Electricity IIP Primary Capital IntermediateInfrastructure/Construction

ConsumerDurables

ConsumerNon-Durables

2016-17 5.34 4.91 5.83 5.05 4.91 1.94 2.96 3.82 6.15 9.01

2017-18 2.30 4.50 5.40 4.30 3.70 4.40 2.20 5.50 0.60 10.30

Apr-18 3.85 4.94 2.06 4.52 2.75 9.79 0.42 8.55 3.93 7.53

May-18 5.80 3.58 4.17 3.85 5.74 6.42 0.08 7.65 6.71 -1.63

Jun-18 6.50 6.90 8.48 7.04 9.19 9.72 1.50 9.37 13.61 0.23

Jul-18 3.35 6.96 6.65 6.53 6.83 2.28 1.34 9.23 14.10 5.30

Aug-18 -0.65 5.24 7.59 4.83 2.46 10.32 2.93 8.03 5.46 6.54

Sep-18 0.11 4.78 8.24 4.63 2.56 6.88 1.45 9.50 5.39 6.36

Oct-18 7.34 8.25 10.81 8.41 6.06 16.91 2.37 9.02 17.39 8.55

Nov-18 2.69 -0.63 5.07 0.32 3.23 -3.07 -4.86 5.03 -2.13 -0.60

Dec-18 -0.95 2.95 4.45 2.60 -1.17 4.90 -0.84 10.00 3.86 5.87

Jan-19 3.92 1.35 0.80 1.66 1.39 -3.15 -2.99 7.88 1.75 3.78

-3.2 -1

.2

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(%)

Jan-18 Dec-18 Jan-19

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MArket Roundup


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Chart M2: Trajectory of WPI and CPI (Combined) Inflation Rate (%)

Replicating the trend observed in core industries, the index of industrial production (IIP) also declined to

1.7% in January 2019. It was the second lowest industrial output growth since August 2017. Mining

improved upon the dismal performance in the previous month (3.9% vs -1%), while electricity (0.8% vs 4.5%)

and manufacturing (1.4% vs 3%) both declined. Among the use-based industry segments, growth in capital

goods remained volatile (-3.2% vs 4.9%), while that of intermediate goods (-3% vs -0.9%) declined further.

Consumer demand has waned considerably since Q2 of this fiscal, as was evident by the lacklustre growth in

both consumer durables (1.8% vs 3.9%) and non-durable segments (3.8% vs 5.9%).

While waning industrial output growth might have vindicated the Reserve Bank of India (RBI’s) monetary

policy committee (MPC)'s decision to reduce policy rate by 25 bps in early February, the price trajectory

suddenly turned in the same month, as indicated by inflation data released by MOSPI and Ministry of

Finance. Retail inflation, represented by the growth in consumer price index (CPI), grew by 2.6%, which was

its highest since November 2018. There was a rise in prices across most categories, led by Education (8.13% vs

8.06%), Meat & Fish (5.92% vs 4.99%), and Recreation & Amusement (5.5% vs 5.4%). On the other hand,

inflation declined but remained elevated for Health (8.82% vs 8.85%), Household goods (6.29% vs 6.45%)

while stagnating for Pan, Tobacco & other Intoxicants (5.49%). Fruits (-4.6% vs -4.2%), Vegetables (-7.7% vs -

13.4%) and Pulses (-3.8% vs -5.5%) remained in deflationary mode. Rise in price level continued to be higher

in urban areas; however the rise in February prices was steeper in rural settlements.

-3.0

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7.0

9.0

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-18

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MArket Roundup


Wholesale price inflation, represented by the rise in WPI, also rose to 2.93% (2.76% earlier). Food inflation

rose sharply to 4.3% (2.3%) while inflation in primary articles rose to 4.8% (3.5%). The rise in fuel prices

(2.2% vs 1.9%) was offset by a decline in manufactured product prices (2.3% vs 2.6%) for the fourth

consecutive month. Though a decline in manufacturing prices is a welcome relief for the industrial sector,

easing the cost pressure on consumers, the sudden reversal in food prices doesn't bode well for the future of

the monetary policy stance, which was just changed in the same month.

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Table M4: India's Trade (Merchandise & Services) Profile

Source: Department of Commerce / Trade Statistics; * Services Trade Data with 1 Month Lag from Reported Month

Table M3: Indian Inflation (Y/Y) Rate (%) Environment

Source: Office of the Economic Advisor & MOSPI, CFPI©: Consumer Food Price Index (Combined), * P: Provisional; R: Revised for WPI; F: Final for CPI;

Type Items Feb-19 Jan-193 Months

Ago6 Months

Ago1 YearAgo

WPI 2.93 2.76 4.47 4.62 2.74

Primary 4.84 3.54 0.59 -0.07 0.79

Food 4.28 2.34 -3.24 -4.04 0.95

Fuel & Power 2.23 1.85 15.54 17.73 4.55

WPIInflationRate (New

Series)

Manufactured Products 2.25 2.61 4.21 4.43 3.31

CPI-Rural 1.81 1.22 1.71 3.41 4.45

CPI-Urban 3.43 2.91 3.12 3.99 4.52

CPI-Combined 2.57 1.97 2.33 3.69 4.44

CPIInflation

Rate

CFPI (C) -0.66 -2.24 -2.61 0.29 3.26

($ Billion) Merchandise Trade Services Trade*

ImportsPeriod Exports

Oil ImportsNon-OilImports

Total

TradeBalance

Exports Imports Balance

2016-17 274.65 86.46 293.91 380.37 -105.72 146.50 87.20 59.30

2017-18 302.84 109.11 350.56 459.67 -156.83 157.93 94.93 63.00

Growth (%) 10.27 26.20 19.27 20.85 48.34 7.80 8.86 6.24

Feb-18 26.03 10.20 28.14 38.34 -12.30 16.34 9.85 6.49

Feb-19 26.67 9.38 26.89 36.26 -9.60 17.75 11.03 6.72

Growth (%) 2.46 -8.04 -4.44 -5.43 -21.95 8.65 12.01 3.54

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India's trade deficit reduced sharply in February on the back of a reduction in imports. Trade balance for the

reported month stood at US$9.60 billion (US$14.73 billion in January). Net imports declined to US$36.3

billion (-5.4% from previous year), while exports climbed up marginally to US$26.7 billion (US$26.4 billion

earlier), growing by 2.5% annually.

Cumulative exports between April and February stood at US$298.5 billion, growing by 8.9% over previous

year. For the reported month, drugs & pharmaceuticals (16.11%) led by share in exports, followed by RMG of

all textiles (7.17%) and Organic & Inorganic Chemicals (4.14%). Non-petroleum and non-gems & jewellery

exports grew by 7.7% during the cumulative period between April and February.

Cumulative imports grew by 9.8% to reach US$464 billion. In February though, major commodity groups

exhibited negative growth, led by Pearls, precious and semi-precious stones (-17.5%), Gold (-10.8%) and

Petroleum, Crude & products (-8.1%). Oil imports were lower by 8.1% in dollar terms, from previous year,

while non-oil imports were lower by 4.5%. Non-oil and non-gold imports were lower by 3.7% to reach

US$24.3 billion.

The Government's cumulative revenue receipts between April and January grew by 4.9% over previous year. It

was still only 68.5% of the budgeted estimate, raising doubts over the plausibility of achieving the target for

the fiscal. Total expenditure, on the other hand grew by 8.8% to reach 82% of the budgeted estimate. Fiscal

deficit target was breached for another fiscal year, as it reached 123.5% of the budgeted estimate. The

Government has made it clear that it is not averse to breaching the target range in the short run, in order to

pursue growth.

MArket Roundup


22

Table M : Central Government's Income - Expenditure Details ( Crore)5 `

Source: MOSPI & CCIL Research

2017-18:PR

2018-19:BE

Apr-Jan FY17-18

Apr-Jan FY18-19

Growth(%)

CumulativeActuals / BE (%)

Revenue Receipts 1435185 1725738 1095687 1181414 7.82% 68.46%

Non-Debt Capital Receipts 115819 92199 67699 49323 -27.14% 53.50%

Total Receipts 1551004 1817937 1163386 1230737 5.79% 67.70%

Revenue Expenditure 1878963 2142283 1575780 1771851 12.44% 82.71%

Capital Expenditure 263704 299930 264165 229731 -13.04% 76.59%

Total Expenditure 2142667 2442213 1839945 2001582 8.78% 81.96%

Fiscal Deficit 591663 624276 676559 770845 13.94% 123.48%

Revenue Deficit 443778 416545 480093 590437 22.98% 141.75%

Primary Deficit 62420 48481 262321 307520 17.23% 634.31%

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MArket Roundup


Global Economic Development

The global economy is on softer ground compared to the previous year, on account of various events

increasing volatility and impeding growth. Apart from the US, where growth has been gaining in

momentum, the developed nations as well as the key emerging economies have posted declining growth. In

the US, fourth quarter growth for CY 2018 came in at 3.1%, compared to 3% in the previous quarter. The

partial shutdown in governance began only in late December and was not suspected to have any major

impact in the reported quarter. Personal consumption, fixed investment and lower trade deficit contributed

to the growth in output for the reported quarter. Unemployment rate came down to 3.8% from 4% in

January. The Federal Reserve had held its policy rates constant in the January meeting. With inflation

hovering at the low end of the target range (1.5% in February vs 1.6% earlier), only a much stronger than

expected economic performance would force the Fed's hand in terms of rate hike. That being said, the strong

economic indicators, despite an economic shutdown augur well for the future. Composite PMI for February

was observed to be at 55.5 (54.4 in January), propelled by the robust performance of the services sector.

In the Euro area, activity has stalled after a stellar 2017. Fourth quarter GDP growth was observed to be at a

four year low of 0.2% (0.1% in Q3). Brexit concerns have weighed in on the economies of both the Eurozone

and the UK, as manufacturers have held off production till the impasse is overcome. Italy has plunged into

recession for the third time inside a decade, while the German economy has also stalled. The manufacturing

PMI for the monetary zone reduced to 49.30 in February, which is its lowest since June 2013. Inflation was

observed at a nine-month low of 1.4% in January, and has inched higher to 1.5% in February. The European

Central Bank (ECB) stated that the earliest date of a possible rate hike has been pushed out to 2020, and

introduced a new lending mechanism for banks to better manage liquidity, named as longer term refinancing

operations (LTRO-III), beginning in September 2019, due to run till March 2021.

23

Chart M3: Markit's PMI (Composite): A Measure of Economic Activity

Dotted Line No Change in Economic Activity

52.6055.50

51.90 50.70 50.7053.80 54.10

52.6050.20

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Global

Economy

US Eurozone Japan China India Russia Brazil South

AfricaJan-19 Feb-19 Neutral Line

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MArket Roundup


The UK has sunk deeper into economic turmoil as uncertainty over Brexit has increased. The British

Parliament has continued to create a road block for Prime Minister Theresa May, rejecting her proposals for

the separation of the country from the trading union. At the worst, the March deadline will have to be

postponed till a resolution is reached, but a backtracking on the exit proposal is more or less ruled out. This

has taken a toll on the country's economic output, with growth slowing to 1.3% in Q4 of 2018, the lowest

level since 2Q 2012. Investment activity and manufacturing growth have declined in recent months, due to

skepticism in the minds of both investors and producers regarding the future course. The Bank of England

(BoE) too lowered its economic forecast for 2019 to 1.2%, from 1.7% earlier, and held off from raising policy

rates. It also indicated that rate hikes in 2019 might be few and far between.

In Japan, economic activity has remained weak due to falling global growth and a slowdown in China.

Manufacturing activity has contracted to a new low in February, as evident by the manufacturing PMI (48.9

vs 50.3 in January). The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to extend further stimulus in its latest policy meeting, by

purchasing exchange traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their total

outstanding increases at an annual pace of 6 trillion JPY and 90 billion JPY respectively. Policy rate was kept

at -0.1%. External demand has remained dismal as evident by falling rate of export growth in recent times,

and is expected to remain so in the near future.

Emerging economies have also fallen behind on the growth curve. China posted its lowest growth rate of

6.4% since the global financial crisis, as domestic consumption and manufacturing activity has both waned.

Manufacturing PMI briefly increased to 49.9 (48.3 in January), but still remained below the expansion level.

The Chinese government tried to boost demand by subsidising car and electronic appliance sales in January.

In Russia, inflation rose to 5.20% in February, which was on expected lines, after the government raised the

VAT rate by 2%. A rise in oil prices has also helped the economy, which was showing signs of slowing down

after the World Cup soccer boosted GDP in 2018. In South Africa, GDP slowed down to 1.1% in the fourth

24

Table M6: Major Global Macroeconomic Indicators

Source: Respective Country Data Source, IMF, World Bank, OECD, M-END: Month End#India follows an Apr-Mar Financial year *Inflation data at a 1 month lag

GDP Growth Inflation IIP Growth 10-Y Sovereign Bond YieldEconomy

(Q3:2018) Feb-19 Jan-19 M-END: Feb'19

Eurozone 1.10 1.50 -1.10 0.18

US 3.10 1.50 3.90 2.72

UK* 1.30 1.80 -0.90 1.30

Japan* 0.30 0.20 0.00 -0.02

China 6.40 1.50 5.30 3.21

India# (Q3) 6.55 2.57 1.66 7.59

Russia (Q3) 1.50 5.20 1.10 8.42

Brazil 1.10 3.89 -2.60 9.02

South Africa* 1.10 4.00 0.30 8.71

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Table M7: Comparative Weighted Average Money Market Rates (%)

Source: CCIL Research

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MArket Roundup

quarter of 2018, but PMI data in February climbed

over the 50 mark, which denotes expansion, for the

first time in eight months.

Short term rates which were inching closer to the

policy rate (6.50%) probably due to tighter

systemic liquidity in the first week of the month

dropped by 12 bps to around 6.35% following 25

bps cut in the Repo rate by the RBI during its Sixth

Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review. Constant

liquidity support provided by the RBI through

variable rate term Repo auctions and purchases of

securities under OMOs anchored money market

rates around 6.27% for the rest of February. The

monthly average rates, therefore, slipped by 8-10

bps across the market segments.

Average trading volume in the money market

picked up with Repo witnessing highest m-o-m

increase of 22%, followed by the Call market (19%)

and TREPS (15%).

The following tables provide the comparative

weighted average rates over a period of time and the

comparative statistics of volume and rates across

the various sub-groups of the money market.

Money Market Review

25

Table M8: Comparative Money Market Volumes and Rates


Market Overview

Feb-19 Jan-19 3 Months ago 6 Months ago Year ago

CALL 6.31 6.39 6.40 6.36 5.93

REPO 6.31 6.40 6.39 6.37 5.91

TREP 6.29 6.39 6.36 6.25 5.79

Gross Daily Average Std Minimum Maximum Market Share

Volumes (` Cr) Volumes (` Cr) Dev Rate (%) Rate (%) (%)

Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19

CALL 477,317 486,574 25,122 21,155 0.09 0.05 6.14 6.31 6.48 6.49 10.38 10.24

REPO 1,065,500 1,053,820 56,079 45,818 0.05 0.06 6.22 6.30 6.39 6.50 23.17 22.17

TREP 3,054,853 3,212,972 160,782 139,694 0.07 0.10 6.12 6.19 6.47 6.52 66.44 67.59M

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Systemic Liquidity

The RBI, in its Monetary Policy Review, went against

the consensus and cut the policy rate by 25 bps

within six months to 6.25% to give a fillip to the

growth momentum of the economy, a key concern

for the poll-bound government. Apart from

lowering the policy rate, RBI changed the monetary

policy stance as well, from “calibrated tightening” to

“neutral”.The inflation would be contained at 4% or

below over the next one year, which has “opened up

space for policy action”. The inflation outlook was

revised to 2.8% for the fourth quarter of 2018-19, 3.2-

3.4% for the first half of 2019-20 and 3.9% for the

December quarter of 2019-20.

Systemic liquidity remained volatile and fluctuated

often during February. Outstanding variable rate

reverse repo amount touched a high of 138,446

crore on February 04 following liquidity absorption

of 90,000 crore in the overnight segment; it tapered

off thereafter; eventually becoming nil in the final

two weeks of the month. Outstanding variable rate

repo volume remained elevated (around 1-1.2 lakh

crore) in February.

After a gap of 6 months, RBI resorted to overnight

variable rate repo auctions and infused 70,000 crore

into the system. Through its longer term

instruments (13-14-15 days repos), RBI injected

250,146 crore. In total, cash injection of 320,155

crore was a sharp 89% higher than the previous

month's tally of 169,557 crore. Following higher

systemic liquidity requirement in March every year

due to a variety of year-end factors, RBI decided to

conduct 55-days, 28-days, 56-days and 14-days

variable rate Term Repo auctions on March 06, 11,

14 and 20 respectively amounting to 25,000 crore

each. These auctions are in addition to the regular

14-day variable rate Term Repo auctions. During

February, banks parked 324,013 crore with the RBI

using overnight (86%) as well as 7-day variable rate

reverse repo instruments which is 66% lower than

the previous month's cash absorption of 943,694

crore.

As far as fixed rate LAF auctions are concerned,

average borrowing by banks through repos was

significantly up by 81% to 10,087 crore, while they

lent 19,653 crore to RBI through reverse repos,

coming 15% above the previous month's 17,048

crore. Keeping in with the volatile trend which it had

been following since September last year, average

liquidity support provided through MSF drastically

improved by 502% to 1,951 crore against 324 crore

when it fell by 82%.

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Market Overview

MArket Roundup

26

Table M9: Volume under LAF Reverse Repo and Repo auctions as well as the MSF

Amount Crore`

Source: RBI & CCIL Research

LAF Reverse Repo Vol LAF Repo Vol MSF Vol

Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19

Total Vol 452019.00 426190.00 211821.00 139186.00 44882.00 8107.00

Average Vol 19653.00 17047.60 10086.71 5567.44 1951.39 324.28

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MArket Roundup

Market Overview

27

Government Securities Market

Primary Market

The government re-issued 18 dated securities

amounting to 48,000 crore with maturities ranging

from 2 years to 36 years. Government will continue

to auction securities through March as well. Over the

past 10 years, this will be the third incidence when

market borrowing will extend till the financial year

end. 13 securities were purchased by the RBI under

the OMO programme, which amounted to 37,500

crore. On a review of the evolving liquidity

conditions, RBI has decided to continue with the

OMO purchase auctions in March 2019 and infuse

25,000 crore during the first fortnight of March

2019 through two auctions of 12,500 crore each.

The borrowing by states through state development

loans (new issues + re-issues) increased to 67,735

crore at an average yield of 8.29% - 9 bps higher than

January figure. Among the 26 states that borrowed in

February, top 5 borrowing states i.e. Jharkhand,

Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and West

Bengal, together constituted 37% of the month's

total borrowing. The share of top 5 has come down

in past two months showing distributed borrowing

across larger states. RBI auctioned treasury bills

worth 59,303 crore during the month. The average

cut-off yields of 364 and 182 day T-Bills fell by 24-25

bps while it dropped by 18 bps in case of 91-day T-

Bill. RBI auctioned 41-day CMB on February 04 for

30,000 crore.

The subsequent tables give the details of various

auctions.

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Table M10: Details of Auctions of the G-Secs

Date ofIssue/

AuctionSecurity

Amount(` Crore)

Cut-offPrice

(`)

Yield(%)

Devolvementon PDs

(` Crore)

ACU CommissionCut-off rate

(paise per ` 100)

01-Feb-19 7.00% G.S. 2021 2,000.00 100.13 6.9259 0.00 0.37

01-Feb-19 8.24% G.S. 2027 2,000.00 103.92 7.5787 0.00 4.50

01-Feb-19 FRB 2031 3,000.00 101.33 7.5481 0.00 0.47

01-Feb-19 7.40% G.S. 2035 2,000.00 97.30 7.6895 0.00 7.01

01-Feb-19 8.17% G.S. 2044 3,000.00 105.45 7.6801 0.00 9.01

08-Feb-19 7.32% G.S. 2024 3,000.00 100.67 7.1562 0.00 0.16

08-Feb-19 7.26% G.S. 2029 4,000.00 99.64 7.3105 0.00 0.18

08-Feb-19 8.24% G.S. 2033 2,000.00 104.80 7.6880 0.00 1.84

08-Feb-19 7.06% G.S. 2046 3,000.00 92.92 7.6796 0.00 2.99

15-Feb-19 7.00% G.S. 2021 3,000.00 100.46 6.7371 0.00 0.16

15-Feb-19 8.24% G.S. 2027 1,000.00 103.72 7.6100 0.00 3.01

15-Feb-19 7.95% G.S. 2032 3,000.00 101.57 7.7600 0.00 2.80

15-Feb-19 7.40% G.S. 2035 2,000.00 96.73 7.7532 1665.89 5.47

15-Feb-19 7.72% G.S. 2055 3,000.00 99.98 7.7202 0.00 5.69

22-Feb-19 7.32% G.S. 2024 3,000.00 101.16 7.0353 0.00 0.23

22-Feb-19 7.26% G.S. 2029 4,000.00 99.13 7.3839 0.00 0.38

22-Feb-19 8.24% G.S. 2033 2,000.00 103.98 7.7788 0.00 4.82

22-Feb-19 8.17% G.S. 2044 3,000.00 104.64 7.7497 0.00 7.01

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Table M11: Details of OMO Purchases

MArket Roundup

Market Overview

28

Date of Repurchase SecurityAmount Accepted

(` Crore)Cut-off Price

(`)Cut-off Yield

(%)

14-Feb-19 7.94% G.S. 2021 5,981.00 102.59 6.6861

14-Feb-19 8.83% G.S. 2023 2,748.00 106.95 7.0852

14-Feb-19 8.60% G.S. 2028 3,487.00 106.93 7.5465

14-Feb-19 8.32% G.S. 2032 284.00 105.40 7.6692

21-Feb-19 7.80% G.S. 2020 6,077.00 101.25 6.6827

21-Feb-19 7.16% G.S. 2023 4,195.00 100.55 7.0037

21-Feb-19 7.59% G.S. 2026 2,106.00 100.99 7.4016

21-Feb-19 8.28% G.S. 2032 122.00 104.25 7.7544

28-Feb-19 6.84% G.S. 2022 6,176.00 99.73 6.9178

28-Feb-19 7.59% G.S. 2026 4,579.00 100.99 7.4008

28-Feb-19 8.60% G.S. 2028 370.00 105.99 7.6806

28-Feb-19 7.88% G.S. 2030 480.00 101.44 7.6834

28-Feb-19 6.68% G.S. 2031 895.00 91.60 7.7376

Table M12: Details of SDL Auctions/Re-issues

Date of Issue/Auction

SecurityAmount(` Crore)

Cut-offPrice(`)

Yield(%)

Under-Subscription

05-Feb-19 8.14% Chhattisgarh SDL 2025 1,000.00 - 8.1400 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.32% Andhra Pradesh SDL 2028 1,000.00 - 8.3200 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.08% Tamil Nadu SDL 2028 1,500.00 98.06 8.3702 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.37% Madhya Pradesh SDL 2028 1,000.00 99.78 8.4004 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.30% Gujarat SDL 2029 1,300.00 - 8.3000 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.32% Karnataka SDL 2029 2,000.00 - 8.3200 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.32% Rajasthan SDL 2029 1,256.00 - 8.3200 244.00

05-Feb-19 8.34% Assam SDL 2029 1,000.00 - 8.3400 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.34% Uttar Pradesh SDL 2029 3,000.00 - 8.3400 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.35% Kerala SDL 2029 1,000.00 - 8.3500 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.36% Bihar SDL 2029 2,000.00 - 8.3600 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.36% Jharkhand SDL 2029 1,000.00 - 8.3600 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.38% Goa SDL 2029 200.00 - 8.3800 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.38% Jammu & Kashmir SDL 2029 800.00 - 8.3800 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.38% Manipur SDL 2029 200.00 - 8.3800 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.38% Punjab SDL 2029 1,000.00 - 8.3800 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.38% Tripura SDL 2029 200.00 - 8.3800 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.39% Andhra Pradesh SDL 2031 1,500.00 - 8.3900 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.41% West Bengal SDL 2039 2,000.00 - 8.4100 0.00

05-Feb-19 8.43% Haryana SDL 2039 2,000.00 - 8.4300 0.00

Contd...

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Table M12: Details of SDL Auctions/Re-issues

29


Date of Issue/Auction

SecurityAmount(` Crore)

Cut-offPrice(`)

Yield(%)

Under-Subscription



12-Feb-19 8.08% Maharashtra SDL 2028 1,000.00 98.98 8.2306 0.00


12-Feb-19 8.28% Gujarat SDL 2029 1,300.00 - 8.2800 0.00

12-Feb-19 8.31% Jharkhand SDL 2029 1,000.00 - 8.3100 0.00

12-Feb-19 8.31% Kerala SDL 2029 700.00 - 8.3100 0.00


12-Feb-19 8.38% Punjab SDL 2029 500.00 100.05 8.3720 0.00


12-Feb-19 8.33% Telangana SDL 2044 2,000.00 - 8.3300 0.00



18-Feb-19 8.28% Gujarat SDL 2029 1,300.00 - 8.2800 0.00



18-Feb-19 8.36% Goa SDL 2029 100.00 - 8.3600 0.00

18-Feb-19 8.37% Jammu & Kashmir SDL 2029 584.00 - 8.3700 0.00

18-Feb-19 8.37% Nagaland SDL 2029 150.00 - 8.3700 0.00

18-Feb-19 8.37% Puducherry SDL 2029 150.00 - 8.3700 0.00


26-Feb-19 7.52% Himachal Pradesh SDL 2022 300.00 - 7.5200 0.00


26-Feb-19 7.77% Odisha SDL 2023 1,000.00 - 7.7700 0.00





26-Feb-19 8.38% Gujarat SDL 2029 1,300.00 - 8.3800 0.00

26-Feb-19 8.43% Himachal Pradesh SDL 2029 500.00 - 8.4300 0.00

26-Feb-19 8.43% Meghalaya SDL 2029 100.00 - 8.4300 0.00

26-Feb-19 8.44% Jharkhand SDL 2029 500.00 - 8.4400 0.00

26-Feb-19 8.44% Rajasthan SDL 2029 1,000.00 - 8.4400 0.00



26-Feb-19 8.40% Kerala SDL 2034 1,000.00 - 8.4000 0.00

26-Feb-19 8.42% Haryana SDL 2039 2,500.00 - 8.4200 0.00

26-Feb-19 8.52% Telangana SDL 20 39 750.00 - 8.5200 0.00

Contd...

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Table M13(B): Details of T-Bills Auctions

Secondary Market

Yield Movement

There wasn't any significant increase in the average

trading volume in the secondary outright market.

Average trade was up by 1% to 3,364, while average

volume increased by 7% to 41,190 crore vis-à-vis

the previous month. Out of the total outright

volumes, central government securities had a share

of 83%, followed by T-Bills(11%) and SDLs (6%).

The daily average settlement volume stood at

41,647 crore, moderately up against the January

tally of 38,145 crore. Trading in G-Sec market

showed that 10-year benchmark is still the preferred

instrument, though its share in the total trading

has been declining since December's 72% to 65% in

February. Top-5 securities, namely, 7.17% G.S.

2028, 7.37% G.S. 2023, 7.26% G.S. 2029, 7.32% G.S.

2024 and 6.65% G.S. 2020 constituted 87% of total

G-Sec settlement volume.

Concerns regarding slippage in country's fiscal

position, announcement of hefty borrowing

numbers by Centre during Interim Budget and

tensions between India and Pakistan pushed the

monthly average 10-year yield up by 6 bps to 7.56%.

The month began on a negative note with the

benchmark yield jumping by 14 bps to 7.65% as the

market was taken by a surprise with the

announcement of Centre's hefty borrowing

numbers for the next financial year and the upward

revision in the ongoing fiscal's borrowing.

According to the Interim Budget statement, the

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Table M13(A): Details of CMB Auction


MArket Roundup

Market Overview

30

Table M14: Average T-Bills Cut-Off Yields (%)

Date Instruments Amount (` Cr.) Cut-off Price (`) YTM (%)

04-Feb-19 41-Day CMB 30000.00 99.27 6.5466

91 day T-Bill 182 day T-Bill 364 day T-BillDate Amt

(` Cr)Price(`)

YTM(%)

Amt(` Cr)

Price(`)

YTM(%)

Amt(` Cr)

Price(`)

YTM(%)

06-Feb-19 4,400 98.39 6.5634 3,000 96.78 6.6725 13,500 93.67 6.7763

13-Feb-19 4,800 98.43 6.3977 3,000 96.90 6.4159 3,000 93.90 6.5141

20-Feb-19 5,603 98.43 6.3977 3,000 96.88 6.4587 3,000 93.89 6.5255

27-Feb-19 10,000 98.43 6.3977 3,000 96.87 6.4800 3,000 93.87 6.5482

Total 24803.00 12000.00 22500.00


91-day T-Bill 6.4391 6.6214 6.8536 6.7623 6.3667

182-day T-Bill 6.5068 6.7497 7.1394 6.9899 6.4961

364-day T-Bill 6.5910 6.8450 7.3105 7.3000 6.6337

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government plans to borrow 7.10 lakh crore

(gross), higher than 5.71 lakh crore estimated this

year. The revised market borrowing figure for FY18-

19 i.e. 4.47 lakh crore is above the Budget Estimate

of 4.07 lakh crore.

Yields, however, began declining thereafter and

touched month's low of 7.45% by February 13 on

account of a steep fall in crude oil prices,

unexpected cut in policy rate along with softer

monetary policy stance and lower trajectory of

inflation forecast for the coming financial year by

the RBI. CPI-based inflation reading coming at 19-

month low of 2.05% in January provided the much

needed impetus to cheer market participants.

Since crude oil prices gained momentum in the

international market, domestic bond yields

hardened to 7.58% by February 18. Towards the

close of the month, 10-year yields had touched

7.65% as market participants feared an escalation

in the India-Pakistan tension after the government

confirmed that Pakistani fighter jets were trying to

strike military installation in the Indian Territory.

Pakistan's move came a day after the Indian Air

Force carried out strikes against terror group Jaish-

e-Mohammad in Pakistan's Balakot, responsible

for a terror attack in J&K on February 14.

The yields of various tenors on the last working

dayof the month and the spread analysis of various

tenors over a period of time are exhibited in the

following tables.

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Table M15: Yield Movements (%)


Tenor Feb-19 Jan-19 3 Months ago 6 Months ago Year ago

O/N 6.3500 6.5000 6.5500 6.4500 6.0500

3 month 6.4029 6.5148 6.7565 6.8107 6.3050

6 month 6.4787 6.6525 6.9564 6.9913 6.4547

1 year 6.5596 6.7509 7.1746 7.3400 6.6133

2 year 6.7282 6.9097 7.3041 7.7301 6.8931

5 year 7.1868 7.2746 7.5097 8.0329 7.5044

10 year 7.6389 7.5083 7.6089 7.9453 7.8315

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It can be observed that the spread between 1-5 years,

1-10 years and 5-10 years has been widening since

last quarter while 10-30 year spread had fallen by 2

bps. A rate cut by the RBI has brought down short-

term rates, but longer tenure rates are still higher as

supply in that segment has satiated market

appetite. This behaviour of the rates meant that the

yield curve has steepened with shorter term rates

falling faster than longer term rates. The lower

short-term rates may reflect liquidity infusion by

the RBI as well as expectation of future rate cuts.

However, the longer rates staying firm may indicate

inflation has bottomed out and rates need to

remain firm. The longer term rates also remain high

because of oversupply of papers in that segment.

32

Table M16: Spread Analysis


G-Sec Spread (bps)Period

Feb-19 Jan-19 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year

1 - 5 Years 63 52 34 69 95

1 - 10 Years 101 71 52 70 127

5 - 10 Years 38 18 18 1 33

10 - 30 Years 22 24 16 20 14

Foreign Exchange Market

Performance of the Indian currency improved

against the GBP and the USD, as the rate of

depreciation was much lower at 1.65% and 0.12%

in February as compared to -4.79% and 1.89%

respectively. It bounced back versus Japanese Yen

and the Euro with appreciation of 1.64% and

0.45% respectively.

Table M17: Exchange Rate Movement

Source: RBI

` / Euro ` / Pound ` / 100 yen ` / Dollar

Movement (%) 0.45 -1.65 1.64 -0.12

Average Rate 80.85 92.67 64.55 71.22

Stdev 0.59 1.01 0.49 0.28

Max 82.01 94.70 65.31 71.75

Min 79.96 91.13 63.78 70.55Ma

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Sudden rise in crude oil prices and the government

projecting higher-than-expected fiscal deficit target

for 2019-20 in the Interim Budget pulled rupee

down by 64 paise at the beginning of the month to

71.75 a dollar. Domestic currency, nevertheless,

bounced back and reclaimed the 70 mark by

February 13, as RBI eased norms for investment in

Indian corporate debt by foreign portfolio

investors. It withdrew the 20% cap on FPI's

exposure to the corporate bond portfolio of any

single Indian company and its entities.

Nearly 4% jump in crude oil prices in merely four

days prompted banks to buy dollars, taking

INR/USD exchange rate back to 71.47 level. After

appreciating to 71.04 on US President Donald

Trump's comment that he would delay a hike in

tariffs of Chinese imports (scheduled for Mar 1)

due to “substantial progress” in trade negotiations

with Beijing, rupee ended the month at 71.20

because of escalating tension between India and

Pakistan heightening caution among market

participants.

The average forward premia curve moved up across

the tenor as compared to previous month, however,

the upward shift was more pronounced at shorter

end as 1M rate shoot up by 38 bps. The curve

steeply moved downward, especially at a shorter

end as the spread between 1M and 12M forward

premia rate jumped to 36 bps from a low of 0.08 in

January.

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Table M :19 Movement of Forward Premia over a period of time (monthly average)

Source: FBIL

Table M18: Exchange Rate Movement

Source: RBI

Exchange Rate Feb-19 Jan-19 3 Months ago 6 Months ago Year ago

` / Euro 80.98 81.68 79.36 82.84 79.59

` / Pound 94.70 93.24 89.08 92.35 90.45

` / 100 yen 64.24 65.30 61.43 63.91 60.80

` / Dollar 71.20 71.03 69.66 70.93 65.10


1-month 4.39 4.01 4.23 4.40 4.47

3-month 4.35 4.26 4.01 4.36 4.71

6-month 4.16 4.12 4.14 4.32 4.43

9-month 4.09 4.05 4.09 4.36 4.33

12-month 4.04 4.01 4.05 4.34 4.27

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Table M20: Movement of FII flows (USD Mn.)

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Brought out after a six-month hiatus, the

government's FDI figures have revealed that

inbound equity investments dropped for the first

time under the current regime, going down by 7%

in the April-December period of FY19. Latest

figures released by the Department for Promotion

of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) shows that

equity inflows reduced to $33.5 billion over the

period, down from almost $36 billion in the same

period of the previous year.

FII inflows remained quite volatile during the

current financial year. After inflows declined to

$0.71 billion (December 2018), they pulled out

$0.76 billion the next month before returning back

to the domestic market with total investment worth

$1.70 billion. Their entire investment was in

equities ($2.42 billion), whereas capital outflow

from the debt market by them was to the tune of

$0.84 billion up from $0.01 billion previous

month.

QuarterNet Investment

in EquityNet Investment

in DebtNet Investment in

HybridTotal

2013-14 13441.79 -4565.98 - 8875.81

2014-15 18372.41 27334.75 - 45707.16

2015-16 -2008.42 -514.45 - -2522.87

2016-17 8466.43 -866.58 - 7599.85

2017-18 4399.52 18625.66 3.21 23028.39

Q1 2018-19 -3040.17 -6040.44 -3.95 -9084.56

Q2 2018-19 -896.53 -903.68 -14.15 -1814.36

Q3 2018-19 -2718.25 -149.16 -0.41 -2867.82

Jan-19 -750.39 -8.63 0.27 -758.75

Feb-19 2419.23 -844.09 122.23 1697.37

Accumulation in foreign exchange reserves

touched 6-month high of $401.78 billion at the end

of February on the back of $2.56 billion increase in

reserves in the last week of February. Foreign

currency assets, a major component of the overall

reserves, swelled by $2.061 billion to $374.06

billion. After remaining unchanged for the past few

weeks, gold reserves rose by $488.7 million to

$23.25 billion in the reporting week. According to

monthly bulletin of RBI, itsintervention in the

forex market had picked up pace in January

withdollar purchases and sale coming at $1.03

billionand $0.73 billion respectively vis-à-vis$0.84

billion and $0.23 billion respectively in December.Ma

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35

Chart M4: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table M22: Key Banking Rates and Ratios (%)

Banking Sector

Table M21: Trends in Scheduled Commercial Banks' Business ( Cr.)`

Source: RBI

Barring banks' investment in G-Secs, all the other

business segments showed positive growth on a

monthly basis. While investment in G-Secs

declined by 0.23%, aggregate deposits improved by

1.12%, followed by growth in non-food credit

(0.87%) and bank credit (0.77%).

From a year ago period, once again, investment in

G-Secs was down by 1.76%. On the other hand,

non-food credit and bank credit grew impressively

by 13.84% and 13.93% respectively. Aggregate

deposits were higher by 9.67%.

In the month of February, credit-deposit ratio has

declined marginally to 77.58% vis-à-vis 77.85% in

January.


Money Stock 14940100 14759190 14518790 14155180 13528640

Aggregate Deposits 12121180 11986460 11813580 11511190 11052390

Non-food Credit 9341750 9260740 9059990 8620980 8205970

Investment in G-Secs 3353100 3360830 3425090 3507030 3413060

Bank credit 9403490 9331690 9132280 8675130 8253520

Feb-19 Jan-19

Credit-Deposit Ratio 77.58 77.85

Investment-Deposit Ratio 27.67 28.05

Base Rate 8.95 - 9.45 8.95 - 9.45

MCLR (Overnight) 8.15 - 8.55 8.15 - 8.55

Term Deposit Rate >1 Year 6.25 - 7.50 6.25 - 7.50

Savings Deposit Rate 3.50 - 4.00 3.50 - 4.00

225,000

245,000

265,000

285,000

305,000

325,000

345,000

365,000

385,000

405,000

425,000

Feb-

14Apr

-14

Jun-

14A

ug-1

4O

ct-14

Dec

-14

Feb-

15A

pr-1

5Ju

n-15

Aug

-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

n-16

Aug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb-

17Apr

-17

Jun-

17A

ug-1

7O

ct-17

Dec

-17

Feb-

18A

pr-1

8Ju

n-18

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

USD

Mil

lion

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

USD

Mil

lion

Change in Reserves Foreign Exchange Reserves

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CCIL Monthly Newsletter

TABLE 1 : DOMESTIC INDICATORS

Key Macroeconomic Indicators

¤

†

ø

36

Key

Mac

ro

ec

on

om

ic

Ind

icato

rs

Sr.No.

Item Unit/Base 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

2018-19(Latest

availablefigures)

Changeover

PreviousMonth

National Income

1Gross Domestic Product at current(% at constant 2011-12) prices

` Crore 692871 (1) 18703873632125(7.90%)

4254629(8.10%)

4898662(7.70%)

5514152(3.10%)

6366407(7.90%)

7634472(8.50%)

8736329(5.20%)

9944013(5.50%)

11233522(6.40%)

12467959(7.40%)

13771874(8.00%)

15362386(8.20%)

17095005(7.20%)

19053967(7.00%)

213236.00

2 Fiscal Deficit ` Crore 44632.00 118816.00 125202.00 146435.00 94283.00 ¥ 330114.00 412307.00 369043.00 509731.00 489890 508149 501880 532351 535068 -124036 770845 69388.00

Industry @

3 General Index of Industrial Production 2011-12=100 212.60* 162.60204.20(8.0%)

221.20(8.0%)

297.80(3.90%)

297.90(-2.30%)

347.30(13.50%)

401.20(7.30%)

186.40(-3.50%)

103.30(3.30%)

106.80(3.39%)

111.10(4.03%)

114.90(3.42%)

120.70(5.05%)

125.20(3.73%)

134.50(1.66%)

0.50

4 Core Infrastructure Industries 2011-12=100 - -130.07

(2.09%)134.73

(3.58%)145.80

(8.22%)155.22

(6.47%)159.93

(3.03%)103.82

(3.82%)106.47

(2.56%)111.73

(4.94%)115.06

(2.98%)120.53

(4.76%)125.64

(4.24%)134.80

(1.79%)2.60

Money Supply, Banking & Interest Rates

5 M3 ` Crore 265828 1313220 2253938 27295353876926(17.10%)

4655831(16.20%)

5579567(14.90%)

6491756(16.00%)

7344070(13.00%)

8359280(13.60%)

9513050(13.50%)

10565990(11.30%)

11633540(10.30%)

12509890(7.70%)

14014480(9.56%)

14940100(7.00%)

180910

6 Aggregate Deposits ` Crore 192541 962618 1766628 20876703075224(17.90%)

3732501(16.80%)

4486573(14.80%)

5204703(15.80%)

5903660(13.40%)

6751420(14.30%)

7739390(14.60%)

8585640(11.40%)

9378650(9.90%)

10542050(13.00%)

11474990(6.70%)

12121180(6.10%)

134720

7 Bank Credit ` Crore 116301 511434 1141701 14964742272603(17.80%)

2690513(13.90%)

3240399(12.60%)

3938659(21.40%)

4611630(17.00%)

5262830(14.10%)

6013090(14.30%)

6564680(9.50%)

7277650(11.30%)

7565670(4.40%)

8650710(10.30%)

9403490(9.00%)

71800

8 S C Banks Investment in Govt. Securities ` Crore 49998 340035 726111 704694 966516 1166237 1375704 1495467 1733700 2003460 2219760 2502850 2638400 3206120 3332240 3353100 -77309 Credit - Deposit Ratio Per cent 60.40 53.39 64.63 71.68 73.90 72.08 70.97 75.68 78.11 77.95 77.69 76.46 77.60 71.77 75.39 77.5810 Bank Rate Per cent 10.00 7.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 9.50 8.50 9.00 8.50 7.00 6.50 6.25 6.5011 Cash Reserve Ratio Per cent 15.00 8.00 5.00 5.00 7.50 5.00 5.75 6.00 4.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.0012 Repo Rate Per cent - - 6.00 6.50 7.75 5.00 5.00 6.75 8.50 7.50 8.00 7.50 6.50 6.25 6.00 6.2513 Inter-bank call money rate (Mumbai) Per cent 4.00 - 70.00 4.00 - 19.00 1.50 - 5.90 4.75 - 8.25 2.50 - 9.70 2.00 - 5.05 1.00 - 4.10 3.71 - 9.01 5.88 - 13.14 7.34 - 13.69 6.96 - 11.28 7.19 - 11.21 6.49 - 9.36 5.88 - 6.79 5.79 - 6.19 5.81 - 6.6014 Base Rate Per cent -- 11.00 -12.00 10.25 -10.75 10.25 -10.75 12.25 - 12.75 11.50 -12.50 11.00 - 12.00 8.25 - 9.50 10.00 - 10.75 9.70 - 10.25 10.00 - 10.25 10.00 - 10.25 9.30 - 9.70 9.25 - 9.65 8.65 - 9.45 8.95 - 9.45

Inflation

15 Wholesale Prices (Monthly)

a. All Commodities 2011-12=100 182.70*** 155.70189.10(5.2%)

197.70(3.51%)

223.60(6.68%)

227.30(0.31%)

250.80(9.90%)

148.00(8.98%)

159.80(6.89%)

108.60(8.60%)

114.30(5.20%)

109.90(-3.80%)

107.70(-2.00%)

113.40(5.30%)

114.90(2.90%)

119.50(2.93%)

0.30

b. Fuel & Power 2011-12=100 175.80*** 208.10 289.00 316.70 341.00 320.90 361.80 158.20 174.00 109.80 119.30 92.00 76.50 94.60 93.30 101.00 1.70

16 Consumer Price Index - New 2012=100 - - - - - - - -115.50

(8.96%)127.50

(10.39%)138.10

(8.31%)120.10

(5.17%)126.00

(4.83%)130.90

(3.89%)135.00

(3.59%)139.90

(2.57%)0.30

17 Consumer Prices-Industrial Workers 2001=100 193.00 444.00519.50(3.84)

119.00µ 132.75(6.21%)

144.83(9.09%)

162.75(12.32%)

179.75(10.53%)

194.83(8.41%)

215.17(10.43%)

236(9.72%)

250.83(6.3%)

265(5.65%)

275.92(4.15%)

284.42(3.08%)

307.00(6.60%)

6.00

Balance of Trade****

18 Value of Imports US$ Billion 24.07 50.54106121

(35.62%)140238

(32.00%)235.91

(27.01%)287.76

(14.30%)278.68

(-8.20%)350.70

(21.61%)488.64

(32.15%)491.49

(0.44%)450.95

(-8.11%)447.55

(-0.59%)379.60

(-15.28%)380.37

(-0.17%)459.67

(19.59%)464.00

(9.75%)36.27

19 Value of Exports US$ Billion 18.15 44.5679594

(24.41%)100607

(25.00%)155.51

(23.02%)168.70

(3.40%)176.57

(-4.70%)245.87

(37.55%)303.72

(20.94%)300.57

(-1.76%)312.36

(3.98%)310.53

(-1.23%)261.14

(-15.85%)274.65

(4.71%)302.84

(9.78%)298.47

(8.85%)26.67

20 Balance of Trade US$ Billion -5.93 -5.98 -26,528 -39631.00 -80.40 -119.01 -102.11 -104.83 -184.92 -190.92 -138.59 -137.02 -118.46 -105.72 -143.14 -165.52 -9.59

March 2019


TABLE 1 : DOMESTIC INDICATORS

37

Source: RBI Annual Report, Bulletin, Weekly Statistics, SEBI & CCILNotes:Yearly figures are as on March-end* : Base: 1980-81=100*** : Base : 1981-82=100**: Figure as at March-end****: Figures are cumulative for the yearQ.E : Quick EstimateR.E : Revised EstimateA.E : Advance EstimateB.E.: Budget Estimate#Turnover Ratio=(Central Government Securities Volumes for 12 months/MarketCapitialisation during the month)*100Percentage figures in brackets denote y-o-y growth

^ Turnover Ratio as on February 28, 2019(1) At 1993-94 prices

¥: Excluding acquisition cost of RBI stake in SBI ( 35,531 crores)

$: GVA at Basic Price for Apr-Jun (Q1) of 2017-18: 35,77,457 Crore (5.60%). GVA for Apr-Jun(Q1) of 2016-17: 33,16,698 Crore - (7.60%).

`

`

`

o:GDP data till 2008-09 are calculated taking 1999-00 prices as the base whereas, till 2010-11, GDP data are calculated at market price (at 2004-05 prices).¤: Base Rate relates to five major banks since July 1, 2010. Earlier figures relate toBenchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR).ø: Inflation Data till 2009-10 are calculated taking 1993-94 as base and 2010-11, 2011-12are based on 2004-05 as the base year.†: IIP data till 2010-11 are calculated taking 1993-94 as base.@: IIP and core industries data till 2012-13 and 2011-12 respectively are calculated taking2004-05 as base year.

Key

Mac

ro

ec

on

om

ic

Ind

icato

rs

Sr.No.

Item Unit/Base 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

2018-19(Latest

availablefigures)

Changeover

PreviousMonth

Foreign Exchange Inflows/Outflows & Exchange Rate

21 Foreign Exchange Reserves****

a. Foreign Currency Assets US$ Billion 2.24 39.55 135.26 142.16 294.65 241.60 254.69 282.04 260.07 259.73 276.41 316.24 332.15 346.32 399.12 372.00 -0.15

b. Gold US$ Billion 3.50 2.73 4.50 5.75 9.56 9.75 17.92 23.79 27.02 26.29 20.98 19.84 19.33 19.87 21.61 22.76 0.84c. SDRs US$ Billion 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 5.01 4.67 4.47 4.33 4.46 4.00 1.49 1.45 1.54 1.46 0.00

22 Net FII Investment US$ Billion -- 0.40 - 2.26 16.04 -11.36 30.25 32.23 17.46 31.05 8.88 45.71 -2.52 7.60 32.95 -12.83 1.7023 Cumulative Net Investment+ US$ Billion -- 13.53 - 43.81 68.41 57.05 87.30 119.53 136.99 168.04 176.92 222.62 220.10 227.70 250.67 210.76 1.70

Central Government Borrowings (Dated Securities and 364 day T-bills)

24 Government Borrowings****

Gross ` Crore -- 115183 106501 158816 188205 306550 459497 479482 600409 558000 563973 592000 585000 582000 588000 511000 48000.00

Net ` Crore -- 73787 46050 85058 106895 230018 313010 323661 473952 467384 458374 443422 403107 348540 409191 362737 9936.9925 Outstandings (Dated Securities) ` Crore 885498** 1018621 1434086 1706083 2033452 2349966 2782985 3244536 3697910 4162571 4566630 4912816 5323091 5686360 9936.98

26 CCIL Settlement Statistics****

a. Securities (F.V.) ` Crore 2692126** 2559260** 9547387 10348089 15056299 11078460 11013019 17396220 23410745 25891675 26977819 40438909 37036379 33889825 9.38%b. Forex US$ Million -- -- 899782** 1179688** 3133664 3758904 2988971 4191037 4642573 4830933 4743321 5297790 5489286 6274978 6494454 6106749 9.91%c. TREP (F.V.)***** ` Crore -- -- 976757** 2953134** 8110828 8824784 15541378 12259745 11155428 12028040 17526192 16764597 17833529 22952833 28330758 11668658 35.75%

27 Gilts Turnov er Ratio# Per cent -- -- 87.93 61.54 0.69 0.94 0.69 0.71 0.72 1.92 1.87 1.95 1.63 2.67 1.18 1.24^ 3.95%

March 2019


@ Figures Refer to next period

# Figures Refer to previous period

USA: Fed Funds Rate, UK: Official bank rate, Main refinancing operations (fixed rate), Japan: Uncollateralised Overnight rate, Germany: Main refinancing rate, South Korea:

Base Rate, China: One year Lending rate, India: Repo Rate

&: Germany

^:

Respective countries central bank.

¥:

January 2019

Source:

TABLE 2: WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS

∞ ¥

38

Key

Mac

ro

ec

on

om

ic

Ind

icato

rs

Item UK USA Japan Euro South Korea China India

Gross Domestic Product (%): 2018 Q4 0.20 2.60 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 6.6#

Fiscal Deficit: 2017 (% of GDP) -2.00 -3.50 -4.50 -0.90 -2.00 -3.50 -3.53

Exports: January 2019 £ 54.66 bn $ 205.1 bn# ¥ 6384.29 bn @ €183.38 bn $ 39.56 bn @ $ 135.24 bn @ $ 26.70 bn @

Imports: January 2019 £ 58.49 bn $ 264.9 bn# ¥ 6045.26 bn @ € €181.35 bn $ 36.47 bn @ $ 131.12 bn @ $ 36.30 bn @

Current Account (Q3 2018) -£ 26.52 bn -$ 124.8 bn ¥ 600.40 bn^ €32.99 bn ^# $ 2.77 bn ^ $ 54.60 bn @ -$ 19.10 bn #

Inflation (February 2019) 1.90 1.50 0.2# 1.50 0.50 1.50 2.57

Industrial Production (%) ( January 2019) -0.90 3.50@ 0.00 -1.10 0.10 5.30 1.70

Exchange rate (per 1USD) (February 28 , 2019) 0.7532 1.00 111.391 0.8785 1125.4978 6.6939 71.1953

10-yr Bond Yield (%) (February 28 , 2019) 1.30 2.72 -0.023 0.182 (&) 1.99 3.21 7.64

Key Policy Rates ∞ (%) 0.75 2.25-2.50 -0.10 0.00 1.75 4.35 6.25

March 2019

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