market situation & 2020/21 outlook cereals
DESCRIPTION
Market situation & 2020/21 Outlook Cereals. Eric Willems Head of Sector Arable crops, sugar, fibre plants, animal feed. CEREAL WORLD BALANCE SHEET – IGC (23 MARCH). WORLD WHEAT BALANCE SHEET - IGC. Wheat export prices from 1/1/2007 onwards. US CBOT SRW wheat futures since 1/1/2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Market situation & 2020/21 OutlookCereals
Eric WillemsHead of Sector
Arable crops, sugar, fibre plants, animal feed
2
CEREAL WORLD BALANCE SHEET – IGC (23 MARCH)
Wheat 2006/07 2007/08 2008/092009/10
(est)2010/11
(forecast)Production 598 609 686 678 649Trade 111 110 136 128 123Consumption 609 613 641 648 662Stocks 125 122 167 197 1858 major exporters* 47 41 64 73 58
Maize 2006/07 2007/08 2008/092009/10
(est)2010/11
(forecast)Production 710 795 799 813 808Trade 87 101 84 86 94Consumption 725 775 781 816 842Stocks 117 137 155 152 118
Total cereals 2006/07 2007/08 2008/092009/10
(est)2010/11
(forecast)Production 1588 1698 1802 1792 1726Trade 222 239 249 240 243Consumption 1628 1685 1727 1760 1788Stocks 283 296 371 402 3418 major exporters* 117 114 152 163 106* Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, USA
3
WORLD WHEAT BALANCE SHEET - IGC
122
167
197185 187
4164 73
58 60
678
648
609
686
649
673
641
613
662671
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 (est) 2011 (fcst)
MM
T
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
World Ending Stocks
of which 8 major exporters
World Production
World Consumption
MM
T
Source: IGC Mar report
4
Wheat export prices from 1/1/2007 onwards
$309
220
249
223
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
02/0
1/08
18/0
2/08
05/0
4/08
22/0
5/08
08/0
7/08
24/0
8/08
10/1
0/08
26/1
1/08
12/0
1/09
28/0
2/09
16/0
4/09
02/0
6/09
19/0
7/09
04/0
9/09
21/1
0/09
07/1
2/09
23/0
1/10
11/0
3/10
27/0
4/10
13/0
6/10
30/0
7/10
15/0
9/10
01/1
1/10
18/1
2/10
03/0
2/11
22/0
3/11
qu
ota
tio
ns
in $
an
d E
UR
$ US SRW FOB Gulf € US SRW FOB Gulf € Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5% protein) € UK feed FOB
5
US CBOT SRW wheat futures since 1/1/2010
Chicago (CBOT) SRW futures contracts since1 January 2010
265
293
311
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
2011 05 May
2011 09 Sep
2012 09 Sep
6
EU Wheat futures since 1/1/2010
Euronext - NYSE (Paris) Milling wheat contracts (since 1 January 2010)
225
193
202
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
€/t
2011 05 May
2011 08 Aug
2011 11 Nov
7
WORLD MAIZE BALANCE SHEET - IGC
137155 152
118
41,3 42,5 43,3
17,1
808
842
813795
799
816
781
775
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 (est) 2010 (fcst)
MM
T
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
World Ending Stocks
of which US
World Production
World Consumption
MM T
Source: IGC Mar report
8
Maize export prices from 1/1/2007 onwards
288
205
221
204
75
125
175
225
275
325
04/0
1/07
15/0
2/07
05/0
4/07
24/0
5/07
12/0
7/07
30/0
8/07
18/1
0/07
06/1
2/07
24/0
1/08
13/0
3/08
01/0
5/08
19/0
6/08
07/0
8/08
25/0
9/08
11/1
3/08
08/0
1/09
26/0
2/09
15/0
4/09
03/0
6/09
22/0
7/09
09/0
9/09
28/1
0/09
16/1
2/09
03/0
2/10
24/0
3/10
12/0
5/10
30/0
6/10
18/0
8/10
06/1
0/10
24/1
1/10
12/0
1/11
02/0
3/11
qu
ota
tio
ns
in $
an
d E
UR
/t
$ USYC Gulf FOB € USYC Gulf FOB€ Dlvd Bordeaux € Budapest
9
EU-27 Simplified balance sheetTOT CEREALS 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11e 2011/12f
Production 256,3 311,3 291,5 274,5 285,8Imports 28,3 12,3 8,0 13,4Uses 265,1 272,3 275,7 271,7o.w. Feed 166,6 170,8 172,7 167,0Exports 19,5 33,3 27,4 28,2End stocks 44,3 60,1 54,3 40,1
WHEATProduction 119,0 149,4 137,0 134,7 141,4Imports 6,8 7,5 5,3 5,7Uses 116,5 125,4 127,5 122,2o.w. Feed 48,3 56,1 56,8 51,0Exports 11,6 24,7 21,5 20,3End stocks 17,9 23,6 16,1 13,1
COARSE GRAINSProduction 137,3 161,9 154,5 139,8 144,4Imports 21,5 4,8 2,7 7,7Uses 148,6 146,9 148,2 149,5o.w. Feed 118,3 114,7 115,9 116,0Exports 7,9 8,6 5,9 7,9End stocks 26,4 36,5 38,2 27,0
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
(CZ
E)
Cze
chR
epub
lic
(DA
N)
Den
mar
k
(DE
U)
Ger
man
y
(ES
P)
Spa
in
(FR
A)
Fra
nce
(HU
N)
Hun
gary
(NE
D)
Net
herla
nds
(PO
L) P
olan
d
(RO
U)
Rom
ania
(UK
I) U
nite
dK
ingd
om
2006 2007 2008
Average common wheat prices, EUR/t
Source: EU-FADN – DG AGRI L.3
11
Common wheat : Average yearly producer and market prices (2007 & 2008)
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
CZ Rep DK DEU ES F HU PL RO UK
EU
R/t
2007 Producer
2007 Market
2008 Producer
2008 Market
12
EU intervention
Quantity available for the resale on the internal market in MY 2010/11 = 2.8 mio t
• Quantities sold so far : 2.5 mio t
• Quantities remaining: <0.3 mio t barley
Quantity available under the Most Deprived Programme in 2011 = 2.8 mio t
• 882,000 t sold so far (>0.5 mio t in past week)
13
Import duties (2004-2011)
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
1/07
/200
4
9/09
/200
4
18/1
1/20
04
27/0
1/20
05
7/04
/200
5
16/0
6/20
05
25/0
8/20
05
3/11
/200
5
12/0
1/20
06
23/0
3/20
06
1/06
/200
6
10/0
8/20
06
19/1
0/20
06
28/1
2/20
06
8/03
/200
7
17/0
5/20
07
26/0
7/20
07
4/10
/200
7
13/1
2/20
07
21/0
2/20
08
1/05
/200
8
10/0
7/20
08
18/0
9/20
08
27/1
1/20
08
5/02
/200
9
16/0
4/20
09
25/0
6/20
09
3/09
/200
9
12/1
1/20
09
21/0
1/20
10
1/04
/201
0
10/0
6/20
10
19/0
8/20
10
28/1
0/20
10
6/01
/201
1
eur/
t
Maize
Sorghum
import duties set at 0
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
50,00
1/07
/200
4
9/09
/200
4
18/1
1/20
04
27/0
1/20
05
7/04
/200
5
16/0
6/20
05
25/0
8/20
05
3/11
/200
5
12/0
1/20
06
23/0
3/20
06
1/06
/200
6
10/0
8/20
06
19/1
0/20
06
28/1
2/20
06
8/03
/200
7
17/0
5/20
07
26/0
7/20
07
4/10
/200
7
13/1
2/20
07
21/0
2/20
08
1/05
/200
8
10/0
7/20
08
18/0
9/20
08
27/1
1/20
08
5/02
/200
9
16/0
4/20
09
25/0
6/20
09
3/09
/200
9
12/1
1/20
09
21/0
1/20
10
1/04
/201
0
10/0
6/20
10
19/0
8/20
10
28/1
0/20
10
6/01
/201
1
eu
r/t
Blé dur haute qualité
Blé dur moyenne qualité
Blé dur basse qualité
import duties set at 0
14
EU cereal import duties 1 April 2011
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
89.0
0.0
0.0
56.0
93.0
0.0
93.0
95.0
95.0
37.0
0.0
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Rye
Sorghum
Maize
Common wheat high quality
Durum wheat high quality
Durum wheat medium quality
Durum wheat low quality
Buckwheat
Millet
Triticale
Oats
Barley TRQ
Barley
Common wheat TRQ
Common wheat medium quality
Common wheat low quality
Euro per tonne
Variable duties: situation 16 Mar. 2011 and maximum WTO duties (hachures)
Fixed duties
Wheat & barley TRQ duties suspended until 30/06/11
15
MTF - Balanced EU cereal markets (mio t)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
ProductionNon-feed use
Feed use
Bioethanol
Exports Imports
16
MTF - Relatively tight market limit cereal stocks and exports (mio t)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
Exports
Private stocks
Intervention stocks
17
Thanks for your attention
18
EU Commitments 2010/2011 (38 weeks)
• Imports: 9.2 mio t (6.4 mio t in 2009/10; 8.7 mio t 2-years ago)• 1.7 mio t soft wheat (2.6 mio t), • 1.6 mio t durum wheat (1.7 mio t),• 5.2 mio t maize (2.0 mio t), • 520 000 t sorghum (4 000 t)• 25 000 t barley (91 000 t)
• Exports: 21.7 mio t (16.4 mio t last year; 22.8 mio t 2 years ago)• 15.9 mio t soft wheat flour inclusive (14.2 mio t), • 3.6 mio t barley (703 000 t)• 1.2 mio t durum wheat (492 000 t)• 806 000 t maize (868 000 t)
• Net exporter: 12.5 mio t (10.0 mio t last y; 14.1 mio t 2 y ago)
19
Cereals: (low) yield growth keeps the sector growing
EU-27 area, yield and production projections – 2020/21 vs. 2009/10 - %
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
soft wheat durum wheat barley maize rye oats other cereals TOTALCEREALS
area yield supply
20
Soft wheat market balance (mio t)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
Production
Non-feed use
Feed use
Bioethanol
Imports
Exports
21
Barley market balance (mio t)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Non-feed use
Exports
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
Production
Feed use
Imports
Bioethanol
22
Maize market balance (mio t)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
Non-feed use
Feed use
Production
Bioethanol
Imports
Exports
23
Cereals prices: another blip or a new pattern?EU-27 domestic price projections – €/t
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Soft wheat Maize Barley
24
EU Maize cumulated import commitments
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
t
Maize other than seed 2010/11 Maize other than seed 2009/10
Maize other than seed - Average 2004/05_2008/09 Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average 2004/05_2008/09
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2010/11
MY 2009/10
MAIZE CUMULATED IMP