market update...high pressure low pressure endeavour (2018) courageous (2019) freedom (2020)...
TRANSCRIPT
1 | 2017 1 | 2017 2018 | 1
Market Update
January 2019
2 | 2017 2 | 2017 2018 | 2
Company Highlights
• During 2017 and 2018, Flex LNG has raised $629m
of equity and $473m of debt financing to increase its
fleet from two to thirteen LNGCs
• All thirteen LNGCs are large 174k cbm fifth
generation vessels fitted with slow speed two stroke
dual fuel engines (ME-GI and XDFs) resulting in
significant reduction in unit transportation costs
compared to steam or tri-fuel vessels
• Four vessels delivered during 2018, two vessels
scheduled for delivery in 2019 and another seven
for delivery in 2020/21
• Due to well positioned fleet and buoyant market,
revenues expected to increase from $19m in Q3 to
$ ≈35m in Q4
3 | 2017 3 | 2017 2018 | 3
Unique fleet comprising of 13 modern large 5th generation LNGCs
ME-GI X-DF ME-GI with Full
Reliquefaction System
ME-GI with Partial
Reliquefaction System
High Pressure Low pressure
Endeavour (2018)
Courageous (2019)
Freedom (2020)
Vigilant (2021)
ME-GI and X-DF vessels are the most fuel-efficient and technically advanced LNGCs
Source: Company
Enterprise (2018)
Ranger (2018)
Rainbow (2018)
Constellation (2019)
Resolute (2020)
Reliance (2020) Aurora (2020)
Amber (2020)
Volunteer (2021)
Initial Flex LNG LNGCs
Acquired in 2017:
$329m equity issued Acquired in 2018: $300m equity issued
4 | 2017 4 | 2017 2018 | 4
Flex LNG is the largest owner of 5th gen LNG vessels Unit transportation costs (round-trip US gulf to China)
The leading owner of 5th generation LNGCs
Based on commercial ownership of the vessels (source: Poten, Clarkson & Company)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
1stGeneration
145k ST 155k ST 160-165kDFDE/TFDE
174k ME-GI
Fuel Boil Off Port Charges Charter Hire
(1) Assuming speed of 16.5 knots (~74 days round trip), term charter rate of USD
70k/day, boil off gas priced at USD 5 / mmbtu, port cost of USD 250k, and allowance for
port fees and loadring discharge time. Source: Poten & Partners
$/MMBtu
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9
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1 2 2
1 2
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4 3
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FlexLNG
Teekay GasLog MaranGas
Cardiff BP BWGroup
NYK KnutsenOAS
On OrderTrading
Open: 13
Open: 0 Open: 2
Open: 0
Open: 4
Open: 5 Open: 0
Open: 0
Open: 0
5 | 2017 5 | 2017 2018 | 5
LNG transportation in early phase of recovery
• Headline spot rates doubled from 2017 to 2018 due to tighter LNGC market driven by strong demand
• Arbitrage window expected to improve from Q4-18 to 2019
Estimated weekly average LNGC spot rates
Source: SSY, Affinity, Bloomberg and Company
Natural Gas Prices by Region and Arbitrage US -> Asia
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25
Dec
-10
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r-1
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Dec
-11
Ap
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-12
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r-1
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Au
g-1
3
Dec
-13
Ap
r-1
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Au
g-1
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Dec
-14
Ap
r-1
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Au
g-1
5
Dec
-15
Ap
r-1
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Au
g-1
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Dec
-16
Ap
r-1
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Au
g-1
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Dec
-17
Ap
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Au
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Dec
-18
ARB - US -> Asia Henry HUB US
Delivered Asia NBP Europe
$ / Mmbtu
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50 000
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200 000
250 000
Dec-1
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Ap
r-11
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g-1
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c-1
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g-1
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Au
g-1
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Dec-1
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Ap
r-14
Au
g-1
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Dec-1
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Ap
r-15
Au
g-1
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Dec-1
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Ap
r-16
Au
g-1
6
Dec-1
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Ap
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Au
g-1
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Dec-1
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Ap
r-18
Au
g-1
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Dec-1
8
Spot $/Day
LNG 145K CBM Spot (Steam) LNG 160K CBM (TFDE)
DF-2S
6 | 2017 6 | 2017 2018 | 6
Steep nameplate capacity growth going in to 2019
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01.04.2018 01.07.2018 01.10.2018 01.04.2019 01.10.2019 01.01.2020 01.04.2020 01.07.2020 01.10.2020 01.10.2021 01.07.2022
Incremental LNG capacity growth 2018-2021
Cameron LNG Export T1-3
Cameroon FLNG
Coral FLNG
Corpus Christi LNG T1-3
Elba LNG
Freeport LNG T1-3
Ichthys T1
Petronas FLNG (Sabah)
Sabine Pass T2-5
Tangguh LNG T3
Wheatstone LNG T1-2
Yamal LNG T1,3,4
Mmtpa-Post FID
Source: Bloomberg, Poten and Company
7 | 2017 7 | 2017 2018 | 7
Resulting in glut of LNG coming to the market
Source: Bloomberg, Company
Year on Year Change LNG Export Volumes Post FID AND Likely LNG Export Projects
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North America Other Russia Africa
Indonesia Malaysia Australia Qatar
Mmtpa
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Other
NorthAmerica
Russia
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Qatar
Mmtpa-Post FID
8 | 2017 8 | 2017 2018 | 8
Tonnage demand by key LNG export areas
~1,4 x Vsl
~2,2 x Vsl ~1,5 x Vsl
~2,2 x Vsl
~0,8 x Vsl
~1,2 x Vsl
# of Vessels needed to deliver 1 MT of LNG
gradually increasing as especially US and
Northern Russia (winter) volume grows.
2018/2019 the multiplier is expected to increase
by 2,5%, absolute volume by 9%, fleet by ~10%
Source: Poten and Company
2018
New Export MT
2019E
New % split
Supply Country / Region % of Supply Multiplier
Vessel
Demand
Africa 10 % 1,46 0,70 9 %
Australia 22 % 1,16 10,5 12,2 21 %
Qatar 24 % 1,39 23 %
South East Asia 15 % 0,83 14 %
U.S. 7 % 2,19 15,0 32,9 10 %
Row 22 % 1,50 7,0 15,4 23 %
Volume weighted multiplier 1,34 33,2 60 1,37
9 | 2017 9 | 2017 2018 | 9
Basic assumptions:
• Average size of 155,000 cbm is capacity of
68,350 tonnes
• Average sailing distance: 4,000 nautical
miles
• RT 8,000 nautical miles
• Average speed (ballast/laden): 15 knots
• Average RT inc discarge/loading time: 29
days
• 2% time spent for dry-docking
• Average utilization: 90%
• Yearly lifting capacity per vessel: ≈750,000
• Gives multiple per mmpta of about 1.3 x
Why 1.3x multiple for LNGC?
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Sh
ipp
ing
mu
ltip
le
Nau
tic
al m
ile
s
Sample routes
Source: Company
10 | 2017 10 | 2017 2018 | 10
Half of US cargoes going far east in 2018
Source: Poten and Reuters
52% 29%
13%
6%
Asia Lat America
Europe Middle East
US cargo destinations for 2018
11 | 2017 11 | 2017 2018 | 11
Larger than usual movement in inventories
• In periods where Exports surpasses Demand, storage appears
• Vessel demand increases in the build up towards peak demand
• As imports catch up, inventories are drawn and vessel availability grows
Source: KPLER and Company
(30,00)
(20,00)
(10,00)
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10,00
20,00
30,00
(2,00)
(1,50)
(1,00)
(0,50)
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0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 vsl 5y Avg vsl 2018 5y avg
World Exported less Imported LNG Balance (Adjusted for boil-off)
MT/
M #
Vessels
12 | 2017 12 | 2017 2018 | 12
El Nino conditions have resulted in higher temperatures in Pacific
Source: Australian Bureau of Metrology
Sea Surface Temperature anomaly December 2018
13 | 2017 13 | 2017 2018 | 13
Very few uncommitted vessels available before H2-2020
• About 105 LNGC orders including 6 Arc 7 LNGCs
• Very limited open vessels before H2-2020
• Increased sailing distances due to US/Russian volumes supportive of LNGC demand
Order book for large LNG carriers Average sailing distances (laden)
Source: Fearnleys and DNB
3 600
3 800
4 000
4 200
4 400
4 600
4 800
Nau
tica
l M
iles
2 1
2 1
7 5
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Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4
2019 2020 2021
Committed Open
# V
esse
ls
14 | 2017 14 | 2017 2018 | 14
Ketchup effect on ordering
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LNG Contracting activity
# N
o o
f V
esels
Source: Poten
187 vessels 110 vessels
15 | 2017 15 | 2017 2018 | 15
Switching to LNG is as much health policy as energy and/or
environmental policy
• In South Asia, air pollution larger health risk than tobacco, cancer, water sanitation and on par with dietary risk
• If the air pollution improves from China's level to the American EPA standard level, that means that would improve
everyone's education by around one year
Source: Texas A&M University, NPR and Science News
16 | 2017 16 | 2017 2018 | 16
Air pollution: a glocal problem
• 9 out of 10 people breathe unhealthy air.
• 6.5 million pre-mature deaths every year caused by outdoor and household air pollution.
Source: WHO/FT
17 | 2017 17 | 2017 2018 | 17
Summary
Right Ships
Right Time
Right Market
Right Owner
Four LNGCs on the water and nine LNGCs under
construction, all fitted with 5th generation propulsion
(two-stroke low-speed engines) providing substantial fuel
savings and larger parcel size
The market have re-balanced and is now in early phase of
recovery with higher charter rates and utilization as well
as increased interest for longer term contracts
LNGC market have very strong long-term fundamentals
due to increased demand for LNG, emissions focus and
commoditization of LNG resulting in more trading
The principal shareholder has evidenced unrivaled
performance in building strong shipping companies and
is supportive of Flex LNG in relation to credit and S&P
transactions
18 | 2017 18 | 2017 2018 | 18 18 | 2018
Q&A