market view - the aluminum association...2017. construction spending through the first two months of...

8
Follow us on: Aluminum Highlights Week Ending: April 7, 2017 An update on Industry activity and economic indicators Market View By: John Mothersole , Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing Service IHS Markit The views expressed in the “Market View” are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Aluminum Association Last week saw LME settlement prices pushing back above $1,950/metric ton, their highest level since late 2014. Midwest premiums, however, retreated, with quotes last week ranging around 9.5 cents, down slightly from mid-point quotes of 9.75 cents the two previous weeks. High LME prices and better scrap availability seems to have restrained buying. LME primary inventory is falling, though there remains the question about where it is going. Stocks on the CME, SHFE and the alloy contracts on the LME are all rising. Off exchange inventory is a black hole, but Castleton Commodities International stockpile in New Orleans may now have grown to be as large as 400,000 metric tons, enough by itself to account for a large portion of the LME's recent stock decline. Macroeconomic data for the week was generally positive and supportive of the commodity complex. The IHS Markit Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index came in only fractionally lower in March, remaining very close to its six year February high. Minutes from March's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting were also released and showed the Board of Governors confident in the performance of the US economy and wishing to establish a pattern of gradual but steady interest rate increases. Given the US economy's solid performance, and in keeping with the Fed's desire to establish a pattern, IHS Markit believes the next rate hike will now come in June. Higher interest rates with the concurrent strength they will lend the US Dollar will act as a headwind for commodity prices going forward. REGIONAL CASTHOUSE SAFETY WORKSHOP May 10-11, 2017 MARRTIOTT – DETROIT AIRPORT DETROIT, MI This report is based on information reported to the Association by participants, which is aggregated by the Association. While the Association believes that its statistical procedures and methods are reliable, it does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the data. All data contained herein are subject to revision. For further information, contact Ryan Olsen, V.P. Business Information and Statistics at 1-703-358- 2984 or email [email protected] . © The Aluminum Association, Inc. All rights reserved.

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Page 1: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

Follow us on

Aluminum Highlights

Week Ending April 7 2017An update on Industry activity and economic indicators

Market ViewBy John Mothersole Director of Research Pricing and Purchasing Service ndash IHS Markit

The views expressed in the ldquoMarket Viewrdquo are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Aluminum Association

Last week saw LME settlement prices pushing back above $1950metric ton their highest level since late 2014 Midwest premiums however retreated with quotes last week ranging around 95 cents down slightly from mid-point quotes of 975 cents the two previous weeks High LME prices and better scrap availability seems to have restrained buying

LME primary inventory is falling though there remains the question about where it is going Stocks on the CME SHFE and the alloy contracts on the LME are all rising Off exchange inventory is a black hole but Castleton Commodities International stockpile in New Orleans may now have grown to be as large as 400000 metric tons enough by itself to account for a large portion of the LMEs recent stock decline

Macroeconomic data for the week was generally positive and supportive of the commodity complex The IHS MarkitGlobal Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in only fractionally lower in March remaining very close to its six year February high Minutes from Marchs Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting were also released and showed the Board of Governors confident in the performance of the US economy and wishing to establish a pattern of gradual but steady interest rate increases Given the US economys solid performance and in keeping with the Feds desire to establish a pattern IHS Markit believes the next rate hike will now come in June Higher interest rates with the concurrent strength they will lend the US Dollar will act as a headwind for commodity prices going forward

REGIONAL CASTHOUSE SAFETY WORKSHOP

May 10-11 2017MARRTIOTT ndash DETROIT AIRPORTDETROIT MI

This report is based on information reported to the Association by participants which is aggregated by the Association While the Association believes that its statistical procedures and methods are reliable it does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the data All data contained herein are subject to revision For further information contact Ryan Olsen VP Business Information and Statistics at 1-703-358-2984 or email rolsenaluminumorg copy The Aluminum Association Inc All rights reserved

The Aluminum Association

2Industry Activity

April 7 2017

April 7 ndash The Associationrsquos ldquoIndex of Net New Orders of Aluminum Mill Productsrdquo for March increased 136 percent over the previous month Orders for flat roll products (sheet plate can stock and foil) were up 147 percent while orders for extruded products increased 130 percent and orders for redraw rod were off 22 percent Compared to March 2016 orders increased 40 percent On average orders recorded by domestic producers through the first quarter 2017 were up 33 percent over last year

April 7 ndash Aluminum imports of ingot scrap and mill products into the US and Canada (excluding cross-border trade) totaled 759 million pounds in February 2017 up 502 percent over the February 2016 total of 505 million pounds Including scrap which accounted for roughly 532 percent of reported aluminum exports in February exports totaled 448 million pounds down 77 percent from a year ago Excluding scrap exports totaled 210 million pounds down 184 percent from last year Exports of scrap increased 42 percent year-over-year Through the first two months of 2017 imports were up 496 percent to 1620 million pounds while exports were up four-tenths of one percent over a year ago to 943 million pounds

The Aluminum Association

3Economic Activity

April 3 ndash Preliminary data published by Wards Automotive show that actual US light vehicle sales totaled 155 million units during March 2017 down 16 percent year over year and for the third straight month First-quarter 2017 volume totaled 4014 million units 14 below like-2016rsquos 4072 million Marchrsquos seasonally adjusted annual rate of 165 million units was slightly below same-month 2016rsquos 166 million and the lowest since 164 million in October 2014 However a prime reason March sales did not top a 17 million-unit SAAR as forecast was the year-over-year increase in incentives

April 3 ndash The US Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce reported that the annual rate of construction spending during February 2017 totaled an estimated $11928 billion seasonally adjusted up eight-tenths of one percent month-over-month and up 30 percent over the February 2016 estimate of $11577 billion Residential construction ($4910 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate) 18 percent month-over-month and was up 62 percent year-over-year Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $7019 billion in February essentially unchanged from January 2017 Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $1633 billion 30 percent above the $1585 billion ytd in 2015

April 4 ndash The US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that total February exports of $1929 billion and imports of $2364 billion resulted in a trade deficit of $436 billion down 96 percent from the revised January deficit of $482 billion Exports during February were $04 billion (+02) more than the revisedJanuary total of $1925 billion while imports were $43 billion (-18) less than the revised January total of $2407 billion The imports of consumer goods down $31 billion from the previous month were largely responsible for the increase in the overall deficit Year-over-year the trade deficit increased $28 billion or 31 percent over February 2016 Exports increased $258 billion (+72) while imports increased $286 billion (+64)

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

4Economic Activity Conthellip

April 4 ndash New orders for manufactured durable goods in February up two consecutive months increased $42 billion or 18 percent to $2360 billion as reported by the US Census BureauThis followed a 24 percent January increase (revised) Transportation equipment also up two consecutive months led the increase (+44) Excluding transportation equipment February new orders for manufactured durable goods were up five-tenths of one percent over January The value of manufacturers shipments and inventories were up three-tenths of one percent and up two-tenths of one percent mm in February respectively

April 7 2017

April 7 ndash Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 98000 in March below the average monthly gain of 192700 over the prior 12 months the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported The unemployment rate decreased from the February rate to 45 percent as employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining Manufacturing employment increased by 11000 jobs the sectors fourth consecutive monthly gain bringing the average monthly change for the sector to 3100 additional jobs over the last 12 months In total manufacturing employment has increased by roughly 37000 jobs over the last year

The Aluminum Association

5Global Trends

April 3 ndash The headline Markit Mexico Manufacturing PMI registered 515 in March up from 506 in February to signal a modest improvement in overall business conditions The latest reading was the highest since October 2016 largely reflecting a stronger upturn in new orders alongside rising output and renewed inventory accumulation Greater volumes of new work and a modest rebound in production schedules also provided a boost to input buying across the manufacturing sector in March However job creation slowed again in March with the latest upturn in staffing numbers the weakest in over two-and-a-half years

April 3 ndashThe Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) rose from 547 in February to 555 in March to remain above the crucial 500 no-change value for the thirteenth consecutive month March data signaled a robust and accelerated improvement in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector driven by faster rises in production new orders and employment Moreover the latest reading signaled the fastest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2013 However subdued exports sales growth persisted in March with the latest rise in new orders from abroad only marginal

April 7 2017

April 3 ndash The Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) posted 533 in March down from 542 in February and easedfurther from the 22-month peak recorded at the start of 2017 (550) Business conditions continued to improve across the manufacturing sector in March but the latest upturn was the weakest since September 2016 The loss of momentum reflected softer rates of output and new order growth alongside a slower rise in payroll numbers Meanwhile higher raw material prices resulted inthe strongest rate of cost inflation since September2014

The Aluminum Association

6Global Trends Cont

April 3 ndash The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 562 in March up from 554 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (556) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011 Rates of expansion in production and new ordersaccelerated to near six-year highs as companiessaw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients National PMI data signaled that growth was centered on a solid core of Germany the Netherlands and Austria

April 3 ndash The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March Down from 533 the PMI posted a level of 524 a reading consistent with solid growth March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded Output rose for an eighth successive month in March with growth underpinned by further gains in new orders In both instances rates of expansion were the lowest recorded since last November although they remained solid

April 7 2017

April 1 ndash The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI posted 512 in March down from 517 in February and signaling a further improvement in the health of the sector In fact Chinese goods producers increased output for the ninth successive month in March Although pointing to only a modest rate of improvement the latest index reading remained amongst the highest seen over the past four years However growth in production and new orders slowed since February with new export sales increasing at the weakest pace in three months Staffing levels meanwhilecontinued on a downward trend though the rate of job shedding held close to Februaryrsquos marginal pace

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 2: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

2Industry Activity

April 7 2017

April 7 ndash The Associationrsquos ldquoIndex of Net New Orders of Aluminum Mill Productsrdquo for March increased 136 percent over the previous month Orders for flat roll products (sheet plate can stock and foil) were up 147 percent while orders for extruded products increased 130 percent and orders for redraw rod were off 22 percent Compared to March 2016 orders increased 40 percent On average orders recorded by domestic producers through the first quarter 2017 were up 33 percent over last year

April 7 ndash Aluminum imports of ingot scrap and mill products into the US and Canada (excluding cross-border trade) totaled 759 million pounds in February 2017 up 502 percent over the February 2016 total of 505 million pounds Including scrap which accounted for roughly 532 percent of reported aluminum exports in February exports totaled 448 million pounds down 77 percent from a year ago Excluding scrap exports totaled 210 million pounds down 184 percent from last year Exports of scrap increased 42 percent year-over-year Through the first two months of 2017 imports were up 496 percent to 1620 million pounds while exports were up four-tenths of one percent over a year ago to 943 million pounds

The Aluminum Association

3Economic Activity

April 3 ndash Preliminary data published by Wards Automotive show that actual US light vehicle sales totaled 155 million units during March 2017 down 16 percent year over year and for the third straight month First-quarter 2017 volume totaled 4014 million units 14 below like-2016rsquos 4072 million Marchrsquos seasonally adjusted annual rate of 165 million units was slightly below same-month 2016rsquos 166 million and the lowest since 164 million in October 2014 However a prime reason March sales did not top a 17 million-unit SAAR as forecast was the year-over-year increase in incentives

April 3 ndash The US Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce reported that the annual rate of construction spending during February 2017 totaled an estimated $11928 billion seasonally adjusted up eight-tenths of one percent month-over-month and up 30 percent over the February 2016 estimate of $11577 billion Residential construction ($4910 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate) 18 percent month-over-month and was up 62 percent year-over-year Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $7019 billion in February essentially unchanged from January 2017 Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $1633 billion 30 percent above the $1585 billion ytd in 2015

April 4 ndash The US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that total February exports of $1929 billion and imports of $2364 billion resulted in a trade deficit of $436 billion down 96 percent from the revised January deficit of $482 billion Exports during February were $04 billion (+02) more than the revisedJanuary total of $1925 billion while imports were $43 billion (-18) less than the revised January total of $2407 billion The imports of consumer goods down $31 billion from the previous month were largely responsible for the increase in the overall deficit Year-over-year the trade deficit increased $28 billion or 31 percent over February 2016 Exports increased $258 billion (+72) while imports increased $286 billion (+64)

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

4Economic Activity Conthellip

April 4 ndash New orders for manufactured durable goods in February up two consecutive months increased $42 billion or 18 percent to $2360 billion as reported by the US Census BureauThis followed a 24 percent January increase (revised) Transportation equipment also up two consecutive months led the increase (+44) Excluding transportation equipment February new orders for manufactured durable goods were up five-tenths of one percent over January The value of manufacturers shipments and inventories were up three-tenths of one percent and up two-tenths of one percent mm in February respectively

April 7 2017

April 7 ndash Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 98000 in March below the average monthly gain of 192700 over the prior 12 months the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported The unemployment rate decreased from the February rate to 45 percent as employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining Manufacturing employment increased by 11000 jobs the sectors fourth consecutive monthly gain bringing the average monthly change for the sector to 3100 additional jobs over the last 12 months In total manufacturing employment has increased by roughly 37000 jobs over the last year

The Aluminum Association

5Global Trends

April 3 ndash The headline Markit Mexico Manufacturing PMI registered 515 in March up from 506 in February to signal a modest improvement in overall business conditions The latest reading was the highest since October 2016 largely reflecting a stronger upturn in new orders alongside rising output and renewed inventory accumulation Greater volumes of new work and a modest rebound in production schedules also provided a boost to input buying across the manufacturing sector in March However job creation slowed again in March with the latest upturn in staffing numbers the weakest in over two-and-a-half years

April 3 ndashThe Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) rose from 547 in February to 555 in March to remain above the crucial 500 no-change value for the thirteenth consecutive month March data signaled a robust and accelerated improvement in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector driven by faster rises in production new orders and employment Moreover the latest reading signaled the fastest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2013 However subdued exports sales growth persisted in March with the latest rise in new orders from abroad only marginal

April 7 2017

April 3 ndash The Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) posted 533 in March down from 542 in February and easedfurther from the 22-month peak recorded at the start of 2017 (550) Business conditions continued to improve across the manufacturing sector in March but the latest upturn was the weakest since September 2016 The loss of momentum reflected softer rates of output and new order growth alongside a slower rise in payroll numbers Meanwhile higher raw material prices resulted inthe strongest rate of cost inflation since September2014

The Aluminum Association

6Global Trends Cont

April 3 ndash The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 562 in March up from 554 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (556) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011 Rates of expansion in production and new ordersaccelerated to near six-year highs as companiessaw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients National PMI data signaled that growth was centered on a solid core of Germany the Netherlands and Austria

April 3 ndash The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March Down from 533 the PMI posted a level of 524 a reading consistent with solid growth March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded Output rose for an eighth successive month in March with growth underpinned by further gains in new orders In both instances rates of expansion were the lowest recorded since last November although they remained solid

April 7 2017

April 1 ndash The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI posted 512 in March down from 517 in February and signaling a further improvement in the health of the sector In fact Chinese goods producers increased output for the ninth successive month in March Although pointing to only a modest rate of improvement the latest index reading remained amongst the highest seen over the past four years However growth in production and new orders slowed since February with new export sales increasing at the weakest pace in three months Staffing levels meanwhilecontinued on a downward trend though the rate of job shedding held close to Februaryrsquos marginal pace

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 3: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

3Economic Activity

April 3 ndash Preliminary data published by Wards Automotive show that actual US light vehicle sales totaled 155 million units during March 2017 down 16 percent year over year and for the third straight month First-quarter 2017 volume totaled 4014 million units 14 below like-2016rsquos 4072 million Marchrsquos seasonally adjusted annual rate of 165 million units was slightly below same-month 2016rsquos 166 million and the lowest since 164 million in October 2014 However a prime reason March sales did not top a 17 million-unit SAAR as forecast was the year-over-year increase in incentives

April 3 ndash The US Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce reported that the annual rate of construction spending during February 2017 totaled an estimated $11928 billion seasonally adjusted up eight-tenths of one percent month-over-month and up 30 percent over the February 2016 estimate of $11577 billion Residential construction ($4910 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate) 18 percent month-over-month and was up 62 percent year-over-year Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $7019 billion in February essentially unchanged from January 2017 Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $1633 billion 30 percent above the $1585 billion ytd in 2015

April 4 ndash The US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that total February exports of $1929 billion and imports of $2364 billion resulted in a trade deficit of $436 billion down 96 percent from the revised January deficit of $482 billion Exports during February were $04 billion (+02) more than the revisedJanuary total of $1925 billion while imports were $43 billion (-18) less than the revised January total of $2407 billion The imports of consumer goods down $31 billion from the previous month were largely responsible for the increase in the overall deficit Year-over-year the trade deficit increased $28 billion or 31 percent over February 2016 Exports increased $258 billion (+72) while imports increased $286 billion (+64)

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

4Economic Activity Conthellip

April 4 ndash New orders for manufactured durable goods in February up two consecutive months increased $42 billion or 18 percent to $2360 billion as reported by the US Census BureauThis followed a 24 percent January increase (revised) Transportation equipment also up two consecutive months led the increase (+44) Excluding transportation equipment February new orders for manufactured durable goods were up five-tenths of one percent over January The value of manufacturers shipments and inventories were up three-tenths of one percent and up two-tenths of one percent mm in February respectively

April 7 2017

April 7 ndash Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 98000 in March below the average monthly gain of 192700 over the prior 12 months the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported The unemployment rate decreased from the February rate to 45 percent as employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining Manufacturing employment increased by 11000 jobs the sectors fourth consecutive monthly gain bringing the average monthly change for the sector to 3100 additional jobs over the last 12 months In total manufacturing employment has increased by roughly 37000 jobs over the last year

The Aluminum Association

5Global Trends

April 3 ndash The headline Markit Mexico Manufacturing PMI registered 515 in March up from 506 in February to signal a modest improvement in overall business conditions The latest reading was the highest since October 2016 largely reflecting a stronger upturn in new orders alongside rising output and renewed inventory accumulation Greater volumes of new work and a modest rebound in production schedules also provided a boost to input buying across the manufacturing sector in March However job creation slowed again in March with the latest upturn in staffing numbers the weakest in over two-and-a-half years

April 3 ndashThe Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) rose from 547 in February to 555 in March to remain above the crucial 500 no-change value for the thirteenth consecutive month March data signaled a robust and accelerated improvement in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector driven by faster rises in production new orders and employment Moreover the latest reading signaled the fastest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2013 However subdued exports sales growth persisted in March with the latest rise in new orders from abroad only marginal

April 7 2017

April 3 ndash The Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) posted 533 in March down from 542 in February and easedfurther from the 22-month peak recorded at the start of 2017 (550) Business conditions continued to improve across the manufacturing sector in March but the latest upturn was the weakest since September 2016 The loss of momentum reflected softer rates of output and new order growth alongside a slower rise in payroll numbers Meanwhile higher raw material prices resulted inthe strongest rate of cost inflation since September2014

The Aluminum Association

6Global Trends Cont

April 3 ndash The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 562 in March up from 554 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (556) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011 Rates of expansion in production and new ordersaccelerated to near six-year highs as companiessaw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients National PMI data signaled that growth was centered on a solid core of Germany the Netherlands and Austria

April 3 ndash The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March Down from 533 the PMI posted a level of 524 a reading consistent with solid growth March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded Output rose for an eighth successive month in March with growth underpinned by further gains in new orders In both instances rates of expansion were the lowest recorded since last November although they remained solid

April 7 2017

April 1 ndash The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI posted 512 in March down from 517 in February and signaling a further improvement in the health of the sector In fact Chinese goods producers increased output for the ninth successive month in March Although pointing to only a modest rate of improvement the latest index reading remained amongst the highest seen over the past four years However growth in production and new orders slowed since February with new export sales increasing at the weakest pace in three months Staffing levels meanwhilecontinued on a downward trend though the rate of job shedding held close to Februaryrsquos marginal pace

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 4: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

4Economic Activity Conthellip

April 4 ndash New orders for manufactured durable goods in February up two consecutive months increased $42 billion or 18 percent to $2360 billion as reported by the US Census BureauThis followed a 24 percent January increase (revised) Transportation equipment also up two consecutive months led the increase (+44) Excluding transportation equipment February new orders for manufactured durable goods were up five-tenths of one percent over January The value of manufacturers shipments and inventories were up three-tenths of one percent and up two-tenths of one percent mm in February respectively

April 7 2017

April 7 ndash Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 98000 in March below the average monthly gain of 192700 over the prior 12 months the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported The unemployment rate decreased from the February rate to 45 percent as employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in mining Manufacturing employment increased by 11000 jobs the sectors fourth consecutive monthly gain bringing the average monthly change for the sector to 3100 additional jobs over the last 12 months In total manufacturing employment has increased by roughly 37000 jobs over the last year

The Aluminum Association

5Global Trends

April 3 ndash The headline Markit Mexico Manufacturing PMI registered 515 in March up from 506 in February to signal a modest improvement in overall business conditions The latest reading was the highest since October 2016 largely reflecting a stronger upturn in new orders alongside rising output and renewed inventory accumulation Greater volumes of new work and a modest rebound in production schedules also provided a boost to input buying across the manufacturing sector in March However job creation slowed again in March with the latest upturn in staffing numbers the weakest in over two-and-a-half years

April 3 ndashThe Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) rose from 547 in February to 555 in March to remain above the crucial 500 no-change value for the thirteenth consecutive month March data signaled a robust and accelerated improvement in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector driven by faster rises in production new orders and employment Moreover the latest reading signaled the fastest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2013 However subdued exports sales growth persisted in March with the latest rise in new orders from abroad only marginal

April 7 2017

April 3 ndash The Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) posted 533 in March down from 542 in February and easedfurther from the 22-month peak recorded at the start of 2017 (550) Business conditions continued to improve across the manufacturing sector in March but the latest upturn was the weakest since September 2016 The loss of momentum reflected softer rates of output and new order growth alongside a slower rise in payroll numbers Meanwhile higher raw material prices resulted inthe strongest rate of cost inflation since September2014

The Aluminum Association

6Global Trends Cont

April 3 ndash The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 562 in March up from 554 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (556) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011 Rates of expansion in production and new ordersaccelerated to near six-year highs as companiessaw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients National PMI data signaled that growth was centered on a solid core of Germany the Netherlands and Austria

April 3 ndash The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March Down from 533 the PMI posted a level of 524 a reading consistent with solid growth March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded Output rose for an eighth successive month in March with growth underpinned by further gains in new orders In both instances rates of expansion were the lowest recorded since last November although they remained solid

April 7 2017

April 1 ndash The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI posted 512 in March down from 517 in February and signaling a further improvement in the health of the sector In fact Chinese goods producers increased output for the ninth successive month in March Although pointing to only a modest rate of improvement the latest index reading remained amongst the highest seen over the past four years However growth in production and new orders slowed since February with new export sales increasing at the weakest pace in three months Staffing levels meanwhilecontinued on a downward trend though the rate of job shedding held close to Februaryrsquos marginal pace

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 5: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

5Global Trends

April 3 ndash The headline Markit Mexico Manufacturing PMI registered 515 in March up from 506 in February to signal a modest improvement in overall business conditions The latest reading was the highest since October 2016 largely reflecting a stronger upturn in new orders alongside rising output and renewed inventory accumulation Greater volumes of new work and a modest rebound in production schedules also provided a boost to input buying across the manufacturing sector in March However job creation slowed again in March with the latest upturn in staffing numbers the weakest in over two-and-a-half years

April 3 ndashThe Markit Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) rose from 547 in February to 555 in March to remain above the crucial 500 no-change value for the thirteenth consecutive month March data signaled a robust and accelerated improvement in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector driven by faster rises in production new orders and employment Moreover the latest reading signaled the fastest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2013 However subdued exports sales growth persisted in March with the latest rise in new orders from abroad only marginal

April 7 2017

April 3 ndash The Markit final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managersrsquo Index (PMI) posted 533 in March down from 542 in February and easedfurther from the 22-month peak recorded at the start of 2017 (550) Business conditions continued to improve across the manufacturing sector in March but the latest upturn was the weakest since September 2016 The loss of momentum reflected softer rates of output and new order growth alongside a slower rise in payroll numbers Meanwhile higher raw material prices resulted inthe strongest rate of cost inflation since September2014

The Aluminum Association

6Global Trends Cont

April 3 ndash The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 562 in March up from 554 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (556) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011 Rates of expansion in production and new ordersaccelerated to near six-year highs as companiessaw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients National PMI data signaled that growth was centered on a solid core of Germany the Netherlands and Austria

April 3 ndash The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March Down from 533 the PMI posted a level of 524 a reading consistent with solid growth March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded Output rose for an eighth successive month in March with growth underpinned by further gains in new orders In both instances rates of expansion were the lowest recorded since last November although they remained solid

April 7 2017

April 1 ndash The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI posted 512 in March down from 517 in February and signaling a further improvement in the health of the sector In fact Chinese goods producers increased output for the ninth successive month in March Although pointing to only a modest rate of improvement the latest index reading remained amongst the highest seen over the past four years However growth in production and new orders slowed since February with new export sales increasing at the weakest pace in three months Staffing levels meanwhilecontinued on a downward trend though the rate of job shedding held close to Februaryrsquos marginal pace

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 6: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

6Global Trends Cont

April 3 ndash The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 71-month record of 562 in March up from 554 in February and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate The average PMI reading over the first quarter as a whole (556) was the highest since the opening quarter of 2011 Rates of expansion in production and new ordersaccelerated to near six-year highs as companiessaw stronger inflows of new work from domestic and export clients National PMI data signaled that growth was centered on a solid core of Germany the Netherlands and Austria

April 3 ndash The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level of the year so far in March Down from 533 the PMI posted a level of 524 a reading consistent with solid growth March also marked the seventh month in succession that an improvement in sector health has been recorded Output rose for an eighth successive month in March with growth underpinned by further gains in new orders In both instances rates of expansion were the lowest recorded since last November although they remained solid

April 7 2017

April 1 ndash The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI posted 512 in March down from 517 in February and signaling a further improvement in the health of the sector In fact Chinese goods producers increased output for the ninth successive month in March Although pointing to only a modest rate of improvement the latest index reading remained amongst the highest seen over the past four years However growth in production and new orders slowed since February with new export sales increasing at the weakest pace in three months Staffing levels meanwhilecontinued on a downward trend though the rate of job shedding held close to Februaryrsquos marginal pace

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 7: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

7Energy

April 7 ndash According to this weeks release by the Federal Reserve Board the Nominal Broad Dollar Index closed the week at 12464 on Friday up two-tenths of one percent from last weeks close of 12435 Last week the Index was up one-tenth of one percent The Index continued its run (17 days) performing below its 30-day moving average and is now off 28 percent since the start of the year Over the last six months the index is up 20 percent while its up 36 percent over the last 12 months

The nominal broad dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the US dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major US trading partners

April 7 ndash On the NYMEX near-month WTI crude oil futures (Cushing OK WTI Future Contract 1) closed the week at $5224bbl on Friday April 7 up $164 (+32) from last weeks close of $5060bbl Oil futures ended at a one-month high Friday after a US airstrike on Syria though gains were capped by expectations risks to Middle East output would be limited Active US oil-drilling rigs increased by 10 again this week to 672 its twelfth weekly increase in a row Compared to last year oil rigs have increased by 318 Brent Crude on Londons ICE Futuresexchange closed the week up at $5524bbl(+32) Fridays spread between the two was $300bbl up from last weeks spread of $293bbl

April 6 ndash The US Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday March 29 to Wednesday April 5) The Henry Hub spot price rose from $303 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $321MMBtu At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) the April 2017 contract expired last Wednesday at $3175MMBtu The May 2017 contract price increased to $3266MMBtu up 4cent Wednesday to Wednesday

US Dollar

April 7 2017

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017

Page 8: Market View - The Aluminum Association...2017. Construction spending through the first two months of 2017 amounted to $163.3 billion, 3.0 percent above the $158.5 billion ytd in 2015

The Aluminum Association

8The Aluminum Association founded in 1933 works globally to aggressively promote aluminum as the most sustainable and recyclable automotive packaging and construction material in todayrsquos market The Association represents North America and foreign-based primary producers of aluminum aluminum recyclers producers of semi-fabricated products and foundries as well as suppliers to the industry or distributors or jobbers

The Aluminum Associations statistical programs provide industry information on primary aluminum production new orders of mill products industry shipments end use market estimates inventories recycling and foreign trade on a monthly quarterly and annual basis Special surveys provide data on specific subjects such as primary capacity flat roll capacity inventories and castings shipments Custom reports are available on a for-fee basis Web briefings are also available upon request

Industry OverviewAluminum Statistical Review (Annual Fact Book)Aluminum Highlights (Weekly)Aluminum Situation (Monthly)Summary of Producer Shipments and Inventories (Monthly)

Primary AluminumPrimary Aluminum Production ndash US and Canada (Monthly)Primary Installed Capacity (Annual)Shipments of Primary Aluminum by Form (Quarterly)

Mill ProductsIndex of Net New Order Receipts for Aluminum Mill Products (Monthly)Can Stock Shipments (Monthly)Electrical Conductor Shipments (Monthly)Extruded Products Shipments and Press Utilization (Monthly)Flat Roll Capacity (Annual)Foil Shipments (Monthly)Forging and Impacts Shipments (Monthly)Rod Bar and Wire Shipments (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments (Monthly)

End UseExtrusion Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Fin Stock Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)Foil Shipments by End Use (Monthly)Sheet and Plate Shipments by End Use (Quarterly)

CastingsUS Foundry Castings Shipments (Quarterly)Canada Foundry Castings Shipments (Annual)

RecyclingNew Can Stock (Class) Scrap Receipts (Monthly)Used Beverage Can Reclamation (Annual)

Foreign Trade (based on government customs data)Summary of US Canada and Mexico Imports and Exports (by Commodity) MonthlyForeign Trade Online Database - US Canada and Mexico Exports amp Imports of Aluminum (By Commodity by Country)

For a complete list of statistical publications and reports visit our bookstore

April 7 2017