markets, he wrote

By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.

March 21st, 2017

Markets, He WroteOn Behalf of

The 2017 FAMA Spring Meeting

Macro P.I.(Just How Hairy is the

Global Situation?)

Photo: Flixter.com

0.2%1.7%

1.2%3.1%

7.2%6.5%6.4%

1.1%3.1%

2.8%4.5%

2.3%2.7%

1.9%1.5%

0.8%2.3%

0.7%1.5%

1.3%1.6%1.9%

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%Brazil

MexicoLatin America & the Caribbean

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & PakistanIndia (4)

ChinaEmerging & developing Asia

RussiaEmerging & developing Europe

Sub-Saharan AfricaEmerging market & developing economies

United StatesAustralia (3)

CanadaUnited Kingdom

Japan (2)Spain

ItalyGermany

FranceEuro area

Advanced economies

Annual % Change

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2017 Projected

2017 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.4%Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2017;’ World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016.Notes: 1. Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 4-December 2, 2016. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. 2. Japan's historical national accounts figures reflect a comprehensive revision by the national authorities, released in December 2016. The main revisions are the switch from the System of National Accounts 1993 to the System of National Accounts 2008 and the updating of the benchmark year from 2005 to 2011. 3. Australia's projected output growth is from the IMF's October 2016 WEO Database. 4. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year.

International Population Dynamics, 16 Largest Nations

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.

NationPopulation (Millions)

% Change2015 2050 Net Change

Nigeria 182.2 398.5 216.3 118.7% Ethiopia 99.4 188.5 89.1 89.6% Egypt 91.5 151.1 59.6 65.1% Pakistan 188.9 309.6 120.7 63.9% Philippines 100.7 148.3 47.6 47.2% India 1,311.1 1,705.3 394.3 30.1% Mexico 127.0 163.8 36.7 28.9% Bangladesh 161.0 202.2 41.2 25.6% Indonesia 257.6 322.2 64.7 25.1% United States 321.8 388.9 67.1 20.9% Vietnam 93.4 112.8 19.3 20.7% Brazil 207.8 238.3 30.4 14.6% China 1,376.0 1,348.1 -28.0 -2.0% Germany 80.7 74.5 -6.2 -7.7% Russian Federation 143.5 128.6 -14.9 -10.4% Japan 126.6 107.4 -19.2 -15.1% World 7.3 billion 9.7 billion 2.4 billion 32.3%

*For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.

Niamey Vice(Fertility Rates by Country, 2014)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Top 15 Bottom 15

Rank* Country Fertility Rate Rank* Country Fertility

Rate

1 Niger 7.60 186 Germany 1.392 Somalia 6.46 186 Italy 1.393 Mali 6.23 188 Malta 1.384 Chad 6.16 189 Hungary 1.355 Angola 6.08 190 Slovak Republic 1.346 Congo, Dem. Rep. 6.01 191 Greece 1.307 Burundi 5.95 192 Poland 1.298 Uganda 5.78 193 Spain 1.279 Gambia, The 5.72 194 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.2610 Nigeria 5.65 194 Moldova 1.2611 Burkina Faso 5.52 196 Singapore 1.2512 Mozambique 5.36 197 Macao SAR, China 1.2413 Zambia 5.35 198 Hong Kong SAR, China 1.2314 Tanzania 5.15 200 Portugal 1.2115 Malawi 5.13 200 Korea, Rep. 1.21

*Rank among 200 countries for which data are available for the most recent year (2014)**Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

Global Debt to Exacerbate Slow Growth?

Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund. October 2016. “World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies.” 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF). October 2016. “Fiscal Monitor: Debt—Use It Wisely.”

• According to the IMF, global debt reached an all-time highin 2015;

• At $152 trillion, global gross debt of the nonfinancial sector now represents 225% of global GDP;

• About 2/3 of this debt is in the private sector;• Current low nominal-growth environment is making

adjustment difficult, setting the stage for a “vicious feedback loop” in which lower growth hampers deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the slowdown.2

Note: The nonfinancial sector comprises the general government, nonfinancial firms, and households. Gross debt represents the unconsolidated liabilities of the three.

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February 2017:$53.46 /Barrel

NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsFebruary 2001 through February 2017

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

*Month of February = average of daily prices from 2/1-2/28

US$ NominalBase metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.

Base Metals

Iron Ore

Precious Metals

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

165

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2010

=100

Metal Price IndicesFebruary 2007 through February 2017

Source: The World Bank

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Mar

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Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000

March 10th

1,086

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

Baltic Dry IndexMarch 2009 through March 2017

Source: Quandl.com

USA CSI

Photo: AMCNetworks.com

(Commercial Situation Investigation)

US Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2016Q4*

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-10%

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-6%

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2%

4%

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% C

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Per

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(SA

AR

)

2016Q4: +1.9%

*2nd Estimate

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2016Q1 – 2016Q4*


-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

PersonalConsumption

GovernmentSpending

Net Exports GrossInvestment

1.1

0.30.0

-0.6

2.9

-0.3

0.2

-1.3

2.0

0.1

0.90.5

2.05

0.06

-1.70

1.45

SAA

R (%

)

2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4

0.8

1.4

3.5

1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

GDP

Per

cent

Cha

nge

from

Pre

cedi

ng P

erio

d (S

AA

R)

2016Q4: +1.9%

*2nd Estimate

Canada Real GDP Growth, 2011-2016

3.1%

1.7%

2.5% 2.6%

0.9%

1.4%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YOY

% G

row

th

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 384-0038, table 380-0064 *Real gross domestic product, expenditure-based

Unemployment Rate, United States & Canada2000 through 2016*

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Canada United States

Source: International Monetary Fund, U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics *2016 figure for Canada is a projection

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSFebruary 2002 through February 2017

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

-1000

-800

-600

-400

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February 2017: +235K

US National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorFebruary 2016 v. February 2017


-30-14

757

190194

219278

306546

597

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Mining and LoggingInformation

ManufacturingOther Services

Financial ActivitiesGovernmentConstruction

Trade, Transportation, and UtilitiesLeisure and Hospitality

Education and Health ServicesProfessional and Business Services

Thousands, SA

All told 2,350K jobs gained

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) January 2016 v. January 2017 Percent Change


RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 IDAHO 4.0 18 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 34 IOWA 0.92 NEVADA 3.5 18 NORTH CAROLINA 1.8 34 NEBRASKA 0.93 FLORIDA 3.4 20 NEW JERSEY 1.7 34 RHODE ISLAND 0.94 UTAH 3.3 21 KENTUCKY 1.6 34 VERMONT 0.95 WASHINGTON 2.8 22 MARYLAND 1.5 39 NEW MEXICO 0.66 GEORGIA 2.7 22 NEW YORK 1.5 39 OHIO 0.67 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.5 24 ALABAMA 1.4 39 WISCONSIN 0.68 OREGON 2.4 24 VIRGINIA 1.4 42 CONNECTICUT 0.39 MICHIGAN 2.2 26 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.3 42 ILLINOIS 0.310 ARIZONA 2.0 27 DELAWARE 1.2 44 MISSISSIPPI 0.010 CALIFORNIA 2.0 27 INDIANA 1.2 45 KANSAS -0.2 10 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.0 27 PENNSYLVANIA 1.2 46 LOUISIANA -0.4 10 TENNESSEE 2.0 30 HAWAII 1.1 47 OKLAHOMA -0.6 14 COLORADO 1.9 30 MINNESOTA 1.1 47 WEST VIRGINIA -0.6 14 MISSOURI 1.9 30 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.1 49 NORTH DAKOTA -0.7 14 MONTANA 1.9 33 MAINE 1.0 50 ALASKA -2.7 14 TEXAS 1.9 34 ARKANSAS 0.9 51 WYOMING -3.2

U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.6%

Canada Real GDP Growth, by Province and Territory, 2015

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 384-0038. *Real gross domestic product, expenditure-based

GDP Growth (%)British Columbia +3.3% Ontario +2.5% New Brunswick +2.3% Manitoba +2.2% Northwest Territories +1.3% Prince Edward Island +1.3% Nunavut +1.3% Quebec +1.2% Nova Scotia +1.0% Saskatchewan -1.3% Newfoundland and Labrador -2.0% Outside Canada -2.3% Alberta -3.6% Yukon -6.0% Canada +0.9%

2016 Canada GDP Growth: +1.4%

Employment Growth, 24 Largest Metros (NSA)January 2016 v. January 2017 Percent Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey

Rank MSA % Rank MSA %

1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 4.6 13 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA 2.2

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 4.0 14 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.0

3 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 3.7 15 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 1.8

4 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 3.2 15 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 1.8

4 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 3.2 17 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-

MD-WV MSA 1.7

4 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 3.2 17 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 1.7

7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 3.0 19 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 1.5

8 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 2.8 20 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

MSA 1.4

9 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 2.5 20 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 1.4

10 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 2.4 22 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 1.1

10 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 2.4 23 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.5

12 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 2.3 24 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 0.3

Unemployment Rates, 24 Largest Metros (NSA)January 2017


Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR1 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 3.1 11 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 4.6

2 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA 3.5 14 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

MSA 4.8

3 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 3.7 14 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 4.8

4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 3.9 16 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 4.9

5 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 4.0 17 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 5.1

6 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 4.2 17 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,

FL MSA 5.1

6 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 4.2 17 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 5.1

8 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4.4 20 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 5.3

9 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 4.5 21 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 5.6

9 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 4.5 22 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 5.8

11 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 4.6 23 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 6.0

11 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 4.6 24 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 6.2

U.S. Unemployment RateJanuary 2017: 4.8% February 2017: 4.7%

1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

21 Jump Street

(And Other Addresses of Interest)

Photo: TheMoveDatabase.org

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates March 1995 through March 2017*

Source: Freddie Mac

*Week ending 3/16/2017

3.50%

4.30%

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Rate

15-yr 30-yr

*NSA: not seasonally adjusted

U.S. Homeownership (NSA)1980Q4-2016Q4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

1980

Q4

1981

Q4

1982

Q4

1983

Q4

1984

Q4

1985

Q4

1986

Q4

1987

Q4

1988

Q4

1989

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1990

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1991

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1992

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1995

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1996

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1997

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1998

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1999

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2000

…20

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2006

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2012

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2013

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2014

Q4

2015

Q4

2016

Q4

2016Q4:63.7%

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$ B

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(SA

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)U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionJanuary 1993 through January 2017


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select MetrosDecember 2016, 12-Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

0%

1%

2%

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7%

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6.8%

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U.S. Single-Family Housing StartsFebruary 1999 through February 2017


0

200

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800

1,000

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February 2017: 872K

Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through January 2017

Source: The American Institute of Architects

30.0

35.0

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January 2017: 49.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Dec

-06

Apr

-07

Aug

-07

Dec

-07

Apr

-08

Aug

-08

Dec

-08

Apr

-09

Aug

-09

Dec

-09

Apr

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Aug

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Dec

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-12

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Dec

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Dec

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Aug

-14

Dec

-14

Apr

-15

Aug

-15

Dec

-15

Apr

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Aug

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Dec

-16

Oct-08: $719.5B

Jan-11: $506.8B

SAA

R ($

bill

ions

)

Public

Private

US Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceDecember 2006 through January 2017


Jan-17:$698.4B

Canada Nonresidential Building Construction Investment, 2011-2016

Source: Statistics Canada. The Daily. "Investment in non-residential building construction, fourth quarter 2016”; CANSIM, table 026-0016

*Data are seasonally adjusted

$12.77

$12.32

$12.0

$12.2

$12.4

$12.6

$12.8

$13.020

11Q1

2011Q

2

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3

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4

2012

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2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

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2013

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2013

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2013

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2014

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2014

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2014

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2015

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2015

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2015

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2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

$ Bi

llion

s

US Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorJanuary 2016 v. January 2017


-27.7%-11.5%-11.4%-10.8%

-10.1%-6.9%

-5.7%-3.5%

-1.5%2.2%

4.7%6.7%

9.7%10.6%

22.2%28.8%

-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35%

Sewage and waste disposalTransportation

Public safetyWater supply

Highway and streetManufacturing

ReligiousConservation and development

CommunicationPower

EducationalHealth care

Amusement and recreationCommercial

LodgingOffice

12-month % Change

Total Nonresidential Construction YOY:

+$10.12B; +1.5%

US Construction Spending on Public SafetyJanuary 2002 through January 2017

Source: United States Census Bureau

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Jan-

02M

ay-0

2Se

p-02

Jan-

03M

ay-0

3Se

p-03

Jan-

04M

ay-0

4Se

p-04

Jan-

05M

ay-0

5Se

p-05

Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10M

ay-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Jan-

15M

ay-1

5Se

p-15

Jan-

16M

ay-1

6Se

p-16

Jan-

17

SAA

R ($

mil

lion

s)

Dec-08$15.1B

Jan-17$7.3B

Firefighters: Occupational Outlook


• Employment for firefighters is projected to grow 7% from 2012-2022, slower than the average for all occupations (11%) (WRONG, WRONG, WRONG);

• As population ages, demand for firefighters will increase• 2/3 of situations that firefighters respond to are

medical

• Volunteer positions will be converted to paid positions in areas where population growth creates a need for a full-time workforce

Volunteers Tough to Find


• Volunteers have dropped from 300,000 to 50,000 over past 30 years

• Training costs have increased

• Businesses increasingly reluctant to allow employees to volunteer

• Single-income families no longer as commonplace

Inputs to Construction PPI (NSA)February 2001 – February 2017


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Feb-

01Ju

n-01

Oct

-01

Feb-

02Ju

n-02

Oct

-02

Feb-

03Ju

n-03

Oct

-03

Feb-

04Ju

n-04

Oct

-04

Feb-

05Ju

n-05

Oct

-05

Feb-

06Ju

n-06

Oct

-06

Feb-

07Ju

n-07

Oct

-07

Feb-

08Ju

n-08

Oct

-08

Feb-

09Ju

n-09

Oct

-09

Feb-

10Ju

n-10

Oct

-10

Feb-

11Ju

n-11

Oct

-11

Feb-

12Ju

n-12

Oct

-12

Feb-

13Ju

n-13

Oct

-13

Feb-

14Ju

n-14

Oct

-14

Feb-

15Ju

n-15

Oct

-15

Feb-

16Ju

n-16

Oct

-16

Feb-

17

12-m

onth

% C

han

ge

Feb. 2016 v. Feb. 2017:+4.8%

Construction Materials PPI (NSA)12-month % Change as of February 2017


-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110%

Prepared Asphalt & Tar Roofing/Siding Products

Plumbing Fixtures and Fittings

Fabricated Structural Metal Products

Nonferrous Wire and Cable

Concrete Products

Softwood Lumber

Steel Mill Products

Iron and Steel

Crude Energy Materials

Natural Gas

Crude Petroleum

-2.2%

0.8%

1.7%

2.8%

3.0%

13.4%

15.1%

19.7%

57.9%

66.2%

107.1%

12-month % Change

Down to “The Wire”

Photo: RecapGuide.com

Sales Growth by Type of Business February 2016 v. February 2017*


-6.0%

-3.6%1.5%

1.6%

2.2%

3.6%

3.7%4.9%

5.6%

7.0%

7.3%13.0%

19.6%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Electronics & Appliance Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Clothing & Clothing Accessories StoresFood & Beverage Stores

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Food Services & Drinking Places

Furniture & Home Furn. Stores

Motor Vehicle & Parts DealersHealth & Personal Care Stores

Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers

Internet, etc. Retailers

Gasoline Stations

12-month % change*February 2017 advanced estimate

Total Retail Sales: +5.7% YOY

U.S. Saving Rate, January 2005 – January 2017 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income)


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0Ja

n-05

May

-05

Sep-

05Ja

n-06

May

-06

Sep-

06Ja

n-07

May

-07

Sep-

07Ja

n-08

May

-08

Sep-

08Ja

n-09

May

-09

Sep-

09Ja

n-10

May

-10

Sep-

10Ja

n-11

May

-11

Sep-

11Ja

n-12

May

-12

Sep-

12Ja

n-13

May

-13

Sep-

13Ja

n-14

May

-14

Sep-

14Ja

n-15

May

-15

Sep-

15Ja

n-16

May

-16

Sep-

16Ja

n-17

Savi

ngs

Rat

e (%

)

January 2017:5.5%

U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment (SAAR)% Change from Previous Quarter, 2000Q1 – 2016Q4*


-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

2000

Q1

2000

Q4

2001

Q3

2002

Q2

2003

Q1

2003

Q4

2004

Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2006

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2009

Q4

2010

Q3

2011Q

220

12Q

120

12Q

420

13Q

320

14Q

220

15Q

120

15Q

420

16Q

3

2016Q4:+9.2%

*2nd Estimate

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through February 2017

Source: Conference Board

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%A

ug-0

7

Feb-

08

Aug

-08

Feb-

09

Aug

-09

Feb-

10

Aug

-10

Feb-

11

Aug

-11

Feb-

12

Aug

-12

Feb-

13

Aug

-13

Feb-

14

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

On

e-m

onth

Per

cent

Cha

nge

February 2017: 126.2 where 2010: 100

The Closer• Global economy remains weak,

and correspondingly . . . ;

• Global money has continued to pour into North America in search of yield and safety, including into commercial real estate – that was particularly true in 2015, a bit less true in 2016;

• Inflationary pressures are on the rise – so, too, are US interest rates – that could begin to squeeze asset prices in 2017, particularly if expected tax cuts are not passed into law;

• There are indications of mini-bubbles forming in commercial real estate, particularly in office, lodging and multifamily segments;

• But tax cuts, stimulus, and more defense spending should see the US through 2017-18;

• There are also longer-term structural considerations, including the national debt and pending insolvencies of Medicare and Social Security – the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating even as the short-run improves;

• 2017 shaping up to be solid, but beyond 2018, US may have some issues . . .

*Kyra Sedgwick as Brenda Leigh Johnson

Photo: Google

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markets, he wrote

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