markus alholm energiapäivä 2015 - wec finland · 2017. 7. 4. · kyoto, stern report, al gore...
TRANSCRIPT
Laitevalmistaja ja Energiamurros
Markus Alholm
Energiapäivä 2015
22.10.2015
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 2
Alstom Group Overview
4 Sectors; Total sales 2013/14: € 20.3 billion
Transport
H. Poupart-Lafarge
€ 5.5 billion sales*
Equipment & Services for
*Source: Annual Results 2013/2014 Fiscal year ended 31 Mar 2014
Thermal Power
P. Cochet
Grid
G. Poux-Guillaume
€ 3.8 billion* sales
Renewable Power
J. Pécresse
€ 9.2 billion sales* 38’000 employees
€ 1.8 billion sales*
88’800 employees; present in ~100 countries
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 3
Technologies Adapted to All Energy Sources
Gas Coal
Hydro,Storage,Ocean Nuclear (turbine island) Wind on and offshore
Oil
Solar Geothermal Biomass
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 4
Alstom in Finland Presence
400 employees in four Business Units
• Power: Delivers power generation equipment & systems and provides maintenance & installation services for the industry and power plants
• Transport: Implementation and service of trains incl. spare part sales
• Grid: Sales & marketing of power transmission solutions plus engineering and manufacturing of products and systems for reactive power compensation and harmonic filtering
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 5
Alstom in Finland Power & Grid References
Nuclear turbines (TVO OL 1&2)
Grid (Fingrid Kangasala)
Hydro (UPM Harjavalta)
Thermal Power (Oulu Energy Toppila)
Wind (Tuulisaimaa Muukko &
Vartinoja)
Environmental systems (Kotka Energy & Ekokem)
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 6
The European framework
What are our targets in relation to 1990?
2007: « 20/20/20 » by 2020
2014: GHG reduction 40% by 2030
How does our mental path look like?
Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015?
Industrial Competitiveness is crucial to maintain our precious wellfare society.
80% of Finnish export income comes from Industry but we de-industrialize.
Electricity price OPTIMIZATION is key - 25€/MWh not sustainable due to higher production costs.
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 7
• Lignite 40-50 €/MWh
• Coal 60-80
• Gas 75-90
• Wind on-s 45
• Wind off-s 120
• Solar 80-140
• Biogas 135-250
• Nuclear 50
• Price volatility plays an increasingly important role
Source: Rough estimates, without taking into account operating rate.
Electricity production costs are above market prices and 2020 futures
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 8
What does the change cost and can we afford it?
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 9
What is needed to deter a serious power shortage:
1. Technology jump in production of electricity
2. Affordable storage technologies for electricity
3. Subsidize everything or nationalize utilities
Responsible CEO:s invest only if the investment has a positive NPV
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 10
How should technology suppliers act?
• The political risk is big as we do not know which technologies are subsidized and which punished e.g. CO2 neutral nuclear – good or bad – “clean-tech” or not?
• Where to target R&D investments
• What is a “bridging technology” – some “bridges” look more like “roads.”
(presently >70 nuclear reactors are under construction. Mainly China, Russia and India)
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 11
Alstom has invested €700 million/a in R&D
• Lower Environmental Footprint
• Reduce Cost of Electricity
• Increasing Flexibility & Reliability
To reach:
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 12
Alstom is not the core – Our customers are
• 5 years ago investments in domestic fuel usage e.g. Wood and Peat was supported as nationally important whereafter a tax on peat was implied
• A wind fall tax for nuclear and hydro was planned and then dropped (TVO 2M€/a, Fortum?)
• We are now waiting until 2017 for a new renewable subsidy system
Where should we invest our R&D and what should we suggest our customers to invest in?
What happens with companies concentrating on one technology and are operational in a limited geographical area? Changes in national regulations can kill them. Do you dare to buy from them ”12 year o&m contracts”?
Alstom has muscles to face different political scenarios and create solutions with both low emissions, high efficiency and adequate competitive price:
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 13
Biomass: Fuel Flexibility
Drax Coal-fired Power
Station
INCREASING FLEXIBILITY
& RELIABILITY
REDUCING COST OF
ELECTRICITY
LOWERING ENVIRONMENTAL
FOOTPRINT
-2 M tonnes of CO2
1.5 M tonnes of biomass used annually
10% of its output produced by biomass
co-firing
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 14
Onshore wind:
ECO-100 and
POWEROF3TM
INCREASING FLEXIBILITY
& RELIABILITY
REDUCING COST OF
ELECTRICITY
LOWERING ENVIRONMENTAL
FOOTPRINT
+25% electricity with fewer turbines on same
plot of land (compared to 1.5-2MW
turbines)
>97% availability of ECO 100 platform to date
+20% capacity factor using POWEROF3TM
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 15
Flexibility & Reliability Solar Hybrids
Highest operational flexibility
Dispatchable electricity without need for storage
Proven Utility scale solution
Most competitive solar solution
Efficiency over 80%
The first proven Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle
The first Tower based utility scale ISCC
In partnership with
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 16
Hydro: Pumped-Storage
Power Plant
INCREASING FLEXIBILITY
& RELIABILITY
REDUCING COST OF
ELECTRICITY
LOWERING ENVIRONMENTAL
FOOTPRINT
0 oil and grease thanks to hydrostatic
lubrication
Up to 33% of rated power for increased
partial load operation range
±80% global cycle efficiency
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 17
Tidal Power
Alstom provides you with leading tidal stream technologies
Efficient, cost-effective and easy to maintain.
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 18
Flexibility & Reliability Battery Storage
MaxSine e-storage
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 19
Flexibility & Reliability HVDC and Smart Grids
Long distance renewable energy
transport to load centers
Back-to-back grid inter-connection
Flexibility for integrated multi-
terminal power networks
Maintaining grid reliability and
resiliency
Integration of future electric
transport systems
Integration of intermittent
renewable energy
H400 Quadrivalve Konti-Skan Pole 1
Ecosystem for a smart-grid
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 20
There is a lot of potential to be tapped a lot to be bought and thus a lot to be sold
IEA estimates a 60% global increase in primary
energy usage in the next 20 years
Finland estimates a need for new and
replacement investments into electricity
production of 7,5 GW in only 5 years.
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 21
The world is electrifying with and accelerated rate
Global power market forecast – medium term New Power Plant Orders in GW p.a
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 22
The energy mix is moving towards CO2 neutral
Overall steady market with CO2 neutral dominant - Wind & PV gaining share against Hydro
MAIN TRENDS:
• PV taking off
• Biomass substantial &
steady
• Continued Wind growth
• Decrease of Hydro Jumbo
projects
• Nuclear back
© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 23
Our offering development strategy
Shaping our way to work towards Customer’s benefit by …
www.alstom.com